It blows my mind how someone would, at a point where we could be considered in extreme nitpicking territory, refuse to consider the more "complete" of the data, for whatever reasons that are not spelled out.
If the goal is to "adjust" the numbers to represent the different scoring environments each one played in, performance vs. peers does exactly that.
How would shooting on the 1999 Dallas Stars (168 GA) be the same as shooting on the 1999 Pittsburgh Penguins (225 GA)? Performance vs. Peers treats it the same. VsX both treats it the same and ignores GP. Adjusting strictly to league average (216 GA) treats it the same. Adjusting to rank isn't even a thing, and you would need to set arbitrary levels where the best (1st) and worst (21-30) team should be relative to the average to generate a final number. But adjusting the team GA to an 82-GP environment and then adjusting every player to a universal environment? Pretty straightforward stuff, and the closest way to compare any player to any player.
If you need to make additional adjustment for line usage, TOI, EN scoring, X player is injured, etc, I'm not going to eat your lunch for that, but it starts with the understanding that even in the same playoff year, some teams are harder to score on than others.
And I know you get that, because you've told me twice about Crosby scoring 1.4 points-per-game against Washington and Columbus.
How would shooting on the 1999 Dallas Stars (168 GA) be the same as shooting on the 1999 Pittsburgh Penguins (225 GA)? Performance vs. Peers treats it the same. VsX both treats it the same and ignores GP. Adjusting strictly to league average (216 GA) treats it the same. Adjusting to rank isn't even a thing, and you would need to set arbitrary levels where the best (1st) and worst (21-30) team should be relative to the average to generate a final number. But adjusting the team GA to an 82-GP environment and then adjusting every player to a universal environment? Pretty straightforward stuff, and the closest way to compare any player to any player.
If you need to make additional adjustment for line usage, TOI, EN scoring, X player is injured, etc, I'm not going to eat your lunch for that, but it starts with the understanding that even in the same playoff year, some teams are harder to score on than others.
And I know you get that, because you've told me twice about Crosby scoring 1.4 points-per-game against Washington and Columbus.
How would shooting on the 1999 Dallas Stars (168 GA) be the same as shooting on the 1999 Pittsburgh Penguins (225 GA)? Performance vs. Peers treats it the same. VsX both treats it the same and ignores GP. Adjusting strictly to league average (216 GA) treats it the same. Adjusting to rank isn't even a thing, and you would need to set arbitrary levels where the best (1st) and worst (21-30) team should be relative to the average to generate a final number. But adjusting the team GA to an 82-GP environment and then adjusting every player to a universal environment? Pretty straightforward stuff, and the closest way to compare any player to any player.
If you need to make additional adjustment for line usage, TOI, EN scoring, X player is injured, etc, I'm not going to eat your lunch for that, but it starts with the understanding that even in the same playoff year, some teams are harder to score on than others.
And I know you get that, because you've told me twice about Crosby scoring 1.4 points-per-game against Washington and Columbus.
And I know you get that, because you've told me twice about Crosby scoring 1.4 points-per-game against Washington and Columbus.
So if I understand you correctly you feel Mario's adjusted 1.37 PPG for his five best playoff runs is the best reflection of him as a playoff performer (for those five those runs at least).
As opposed to being all very nitpicky kind of stuff.
Using quoipourquoi's data here, I've calculated that Gretzky's best five years (1985, 1983, 1988, 1984, and 1993) result in 1.51 adjusted points/game. 1.51 and 1.37 look low only because we're accustomed to seeing their raw numbers.
Using quoipourquoi's data here, I've calculated that Gretzky's best five years (1985, 1983, 1988, 1984, and 1993) result in 1.51 adjusted points/game. 1.51 and 1.37 look low only because we're accustomed to seeing their raw numbers.
They look low to me because they are not in line with how they look vs. a performance vs. peers analysis; an analysis whose only fault is it presumes each peer played against the same competition.
I'm not really comfortable adjusting playoff numbers based on regular season scoring, because we know that some of the best offensive teams in the 80s and early 90s didn't bother playing defense in the regular season, before tightening up in the playoffs. Especially in the 1980s, when 16 of 21 teams made the playoffs.
The list needs more Bernie Parent and Bobby Clarke.
And that's the whole point of why I ran the adjustment... players in the same playoff could face wildly different competition.
Why? Parent did have 2 elite playoff performances, but outside of that, nothing at all. Nobody should make a top 40 all time list with only 2 notable runs to their name.
Clarke was a solid playoff guy, but not good enough to make the top 40. He was outshined by Rick MacLeish in both 74 and 75 (their Cup winning years) and then again the following year by Reggie Leach in a losing effort.
Only on paper.
Why not, at the very least, include some consideration for playoff GAs which, at the very least, would account for the lower overall scoring that usually occurs in the playoffs? This, at the very least, would temper some of the huge variances in GAs between teams from seasons where scoring was close to 4.00 and seasons where scoring was close to 2.5.
This whole project is about playoff performances and recognizing players that performed in the most important games of all. We are supposed to ignore a player's RS resume completely. Incorporating these RS GAs seems counter to that mindset.
As I have been mentioning all along, if any consideration for RS GAAs is deemed to be worthy, it should be based on GA rating in respective seasons. IMO, this is more in the spirit of comparing players' respective Art Ross placings vs. a straight up comparison of raw point totals and PPGs. You use a 200 GA as your base which makes no sense as Wayne and Mario that they didn't even have the chance to play a team with a 200 GA even though they did play the best defensive teams at some point.
This exercise introduces an unnecessary hypothetical scenario; one that asks "what if Wayne or Mario played against, not only better RS defensive teams, relative to another era, but also better defensive teams in general as the scoring environment had dramatically changed?" First of all, this assumes that the Cup winning Oilers and Pens would not be any better or worse, relative to the league, if they played in the late '90s, that their opponents would be the exact same as the AVs faced, and that they would get hot and cold in the exact same way as the Sakic or Forsberg did.
According to your method, Malkin's 11 points in 5 games against the #2 GA team this year is given significantly more value than Crosby's 7 points in 6 games against the #15 GA team even though the Jackets' and Preds' playoff GAs were dramatically different. Perhaps this is an extreme example, one that gets evened out the more games that are considered, but that's my feeling about your method; that the more games considered for each player, the more a difference in the defensive opposition gets eliminated.
And even if Wayne faced considerably worse defensive teams, relative to his era, why isn't that a reflection of the Oiler RS success of which Wayne played a huge part in?
I don't have an issue at all with accounting for the different scoring environments between eras but your method makes way too many assumptions.
EDIT I do appreciate that playing in a 21 team league vs. a 28 or 30 team league is something that can possibly be accounted for but am wondering how to capture that without giving an unfair advantage to a group of players over another. My instinct is that a performance vs. peers method would account for this as, for example, Wayne's peers like Bossy or Trottier would have played under the same type of conditions and faced worse defensive teams than their other peers of the era. The highest scorers over a number of seasons, you would think, would have faced a similar level of defensive competition. I am sure Yzerman and Federov would have faced a similar level of defensive opposition as the Sakic/Forsberg did from 96 to 2004 if you averaged it out.
This whole project is about playoff performances and recognizing players that performed in the most important games of all. We are supposed to ignore a player's RS resume completely. Incorporating these RS GAs seems counter to that mindset.
As I have been mentioning all along, if any consideration for RS GAAs is deemed to be worthy, it should be based on GA rating in respective seasons. IMO, this is more in the spirit of comparing players' respective Art Ross placings vs. a straight up comparison of raw point totals and PPGs. You use a 200 GA as your base which makes no sense as Wayne and Mario that they didn't even have the chance to play a team with a 200 GA even though they did play the best defensive teams at some point.
This exercise introduces an unnecessary hypothetical scenario; one that asks "what if Wayne or Mario played against, not only better RS defensive teams, relative to another era, but also better defensive teams in general as the scoring environment had dramatically changed?" First of all, this assumes that the Cup winning Oilers and Pens would not be any better or worse, relative to the league, if they played in the late '90s, that their opponents would be the exact same as the AVs faced, and that they would get hot and cold in the exact same way as the Sakic or Forsberg did.
According to your method, Malkin's 11 points in 5 games against the #2 GA team this year is given significantly more value than Crosby's 7 points in 6 games against the #15 GA team even though the Jackets' and Preds' playoff GAs were dramatically different. Perhaps this is an extreme example, one that gets evened out the more games that are considered, but that's my feeling about your method; that the more games considered for each player, the more a difference in the defensive opposition gets eliminated.
And even if Wayne faced considerably worse defensive teams, relative to his era, why isn't that a reflection of the Oiler RS success of which Wayne played a huge part in?
I don't have an issue at all with accounting for the different scoring environments between eras but your method makes way too many assumptions.
EDIT I do appreciate that playing in a 21 team league vs. a 28 or 30 team league is something that can possibly be accounted for but am wondering how to capture that without giving an unfair advantage to a group of players over another. My instinct is that a performance vs. peers method would account for this as, for example, Wayne's peers like Bossy or Trottier would have played under the same type of conditions and faced worse defensive teams than their other peers of the era. The highest scorers over a number of seasons, you would think, would have faced a similar level of defensive competition. I am sure Yzerman and Federov would have faced a similar level of defensive opposition as the Sakic/Forsberg did from 96 to 2004 if you averaged it out.
I'm not really comfortable adjusting playoff numbers based on regular season scoring, because we know that some of the best offensive teams in the 80s and early 90s didn't bother playing defense in the regular season, before tightening up in the playoffs. Especially in the 1980s, when 16 of 21 teams made the playoffs.
I'm not really comfortable adjusting playoff numbers based on regular season scoring, because we know that some of the best offensive teams in the 80s and early 90s didn't bother playing defense in the regular season, before tightening up in the playoffs. Especially in the 1980s, when 16 of 21 teams made the playoffs.
I'd tend to agree.
The playoffs are a different beast because teams can gameplan more specifically against one another as well.
But regular season goal against seem to be a better predictor of playoff goal against result than goal for in regular season for playoff goal scored.
And we would not hesitate as much to use goal for in regular season to rank team offense potential in playoff I would think, the correlation between regular season defense and playoff seem good enough to me to have more value than league average.