Speculation: Hoglander Mega Thread: Caps, Pens and CBJ interested

[kanucks25]

I don't mind this. Carlo's somewhat spotty injury history is a bit of a concern, but i don't mind that it'd be more than just a bandaid rental that they can't afford to re-sign. Moving Desharnais salary back the other way also makes Carlo's price pragmatically pretty palatable.

He's also not really the "puck-mover" i think a lot of Canucks fans are hoping for. But he seems like the type who would fit pretty well in Tocchet's system. The ability to eat some solid PK minutes would also be really handy.

Giving up a 1st round pick for Carlo given he's one nudge away from his career ending is simply not a good idea, especially since he'd probably be bumped down to the 3rd pair when Willander is ready.

We can get rid of Desharnais for a mid pick if we need to, or attach him to Hoglander as just a salary dump for a modest/low return.

lmfao.


Miller+Myers for Lindholm+Carlo

Miller is not moving, especially not for something like that. Lindholm contract was a bullet dodged.

 

[biturbo19]

Giving up a 1st round pick for Carlo given he's one nudge away from his career ending is simply not a good idea, especially since he'd probably be bumped down to the 3rd pair when Willander is ready.

We can get rid of Desharnais for a mid pick if we need to, or attach him to Hoglander as just a salary dump for a modest/low return.

I mean, yeah...there are certainly other ways to dump Desharnais. And the injury history with Carlo is a bit scary. But he's a solid complementary Top-4D who brings a lot of the traits this coaching staff tend to prefer. And if he can stay healthy and play it out, his contract is pretty solid value. Guys like him are going to be getting $6M+ easily in the coming years. That's solid "surplus value" at $4.1M imo. And it's not like you're on the hook forever, if he does end up being a bit of an injury liability.

 

[kanucks25]

I mean, yeah...there are certainly other ways to dump Desharnais. And the injury history with Carlo is a bit scary. But he's a solid complementary Top-4D who brings a lot of the traits this coaching staff tend to prefer. And if he can stay healthy and play it out, his contract is pretty solid value. Guys like him are going to be getting $6M+ easily in the coming years. That's solid "surplus value" at $4.1M imo. And it's not like you're on the hook forever, if he does end up being a bit of an injury liability.

I'd rather just pay the extra 2M for a better and/or more reliable player than chance it at Carlo.

We probably need somebody better than just complementary in our top-4 anyway.

 

[biturbo19]

I'd rather just pay the extra 2M for a better and/or more reliable player than chance it at Carlo.

We probably need somebody better than just complementary in our top-4 anyway.

I mean, the point is...you're going to be paying $2M just to get a Carlo level player over the remaining years of his deal. I think you're going to be paying $4M+ more for a significantly "better" player.

There are also only so many options even "available". Like, who are the better and/or more reliable players that are feasible acquisitions?

 

[kanucks25]

I mean, the point is...you're going to be paying $2M just to get a Carlo level player over the remaining years of his deal. I think you're going to be paying $4M+ more for a significantly "better" player.

There are also only so many options even "available". Like, who are the better and/or more reliable players that are feasible acquisitions?

No idea who's available. Remember that nobody knew Hronek was available until the Canucks acquired him.

I imagine Allvin is looking to make a similar acquisition.

 

[elitepete]

lmfao.


Miller+Myers for Lindholm+Carlo

Yes. What else would boston give?

 

[David71]

No idea who's available. Remember that nobody knew Hronek was available until the Canucks acquired him.

I imagine Allvin is looking to make a similar acquisition.

i agree, i have that irking feeling too. its the the same guys being mentioned at nauseam over and over again. andderson,provorov, etc. some youngish rfa type player.

 

[biturbo19]

i agree, i have that irking feeling too. its the the same guys being mentioned at nauseam over and over again. andderson,provorov, etc. some youngish rfa type player.

I just don't see who is even out there who would really fit that mold. A medium-young player who hasn't hit their peak and has a scary UFA situation impending? Who is that?

I could see them looking for that guy, i just don't know if there's another Hronek out there.


K'Andre Miller? He's got a very awkward contract coming up, but i think moving Trouba is a clear sign that they're going to commit to him and are just working out the details.

Sanheim? Kind of fits the mold, but goodness he'd cost more than the Canucks can afford, especially as a bigtime big stage selection guy.

Power? Seems like the Sabres are pretty content to continue to build around him and Dahlin. They'd move pretty much anyone else on their blueline besides those two guys.


Obviously the point is, nobody entirely saw the Hronek thing coming...but it's still just extremely difficult to see where they'd pull that off again.

 

[McJedi]

Hoglander for Josh Manson?

 

[LemonSauceD]

Hoglander for Josh Manson?

Done. Would need to throw in Desharnais for the cap to work.

 

[Johnsie19]

HOG + '25 2hd and D Elias Petts For Marcus Petts 40% retention and DOC.

Possibly Mynio in place of EP, but he's further away so...

I don't think D Petey would be available in a deal for a rental let alone someone like Marcus Pettersson who isn't a game breaker. Hoglander and a 2nd is plenty. If it's more than that move on to another target. Pay a bit more and get a better player with some term.

 

[biturbo19]

Hoglander for Josh Manson?

I'd do it. But what's Manson's injury status? When is he expected back? Because part of the urgency in finding a defensive upgrade is because they already have Hronek out. So if Manson is going to be out for a while, it's less enticing.

Also, he's got some trade protection, and wasn't it rumored at some point that he's not interested in going to the Canadian teams? I think back when he went to Colorado in the first place.


Also, it'd have to include Vinny Desharnais contract going back, for cap purposes mostly.

I don't think D Petey would be available in a deal for a rental let alone someone like Marcus Pettersson who isn't a game breaker. Hoglander and a 2nd is plenty. If it's more than that move on to another target. Pay a bit more and get a better player with some term.

Would also kind of defeat the purpose of collecting as many Petterssons as possible for Vancouver.

 

[SEALBound]

I don't think D Petey would be available in a deal for a rental let alone someone like Marcus Pettersson who isn't a game breaker. Hoglander and a 2nd is plenty. If it's more than that move on to another target. Pay a bit more and get a better player with some term.

I don't know about that. I would assume the acquisition of Pettersson would also be due to a desire to resign him.

Hoglander is worth a 3rd at most, maybe a 4th now. Not sure a 2nd+3rd is enough. I would be willing to add a smidge on the back end of Pettersson though. Perhaps a 4th liner better suited for Tocchet?

Pettersson@50% + Nieto + 4th for Hogs + Pettersson + 2nd?

Or we could add DOC and upgrade the 2nd to a 1st?

 

[Empoleon8771]

I don't think D Petey would be available in a deal for a rental let alone someone like Marcus Pettersson who isn't a game breaker. Hoglander and a 2nd is plenty. If it's more than that move on to another target. Pay a bit more and get a better player with some term.

Hoglander and a 2nd for Pettersson sucks for the Penguins. Why would that be enough?

Hoglander's value is dumping further and further down. He is currently riding a 16 game pointless streak where he only has 13 shots on goal over those games, he's quickly going to no value. And with his contract extension that hasn't even kicked in yet, I'm willing to bet another month of this terrible play is going to bring him firmly to negative value.

Even if you take out coincidental minors, Hoglander has more minor penalties than points this year.

 

[Johnsie19]

I don't know about that. I would assume the acquisition of Pettersson would also be due to a desire to resign him.

Hoglander is worth a 3rd at most, maybe a 4th now. Not sure a 2nd+3rd is enough. I would be willing to add a smidge on the back end of Pettersson though. Perhaps a 4th liner better suited for Tocchet?

Pettersson@50% + Nieto + 4th for Hogs + Pettersson + 2nd?

Or we could add DOC and upgrade the 2nd to a 1st?

Hoglander was a 2nd rounder who is 7th in goals and 10th in points in his draft class.

He's an everyday NHLer with top 6 upside. Literally been a top 6 player for stretches and produced decently well. He's 23 yrs old. That is worth a lot more than a 3rd or 4th. His value is a high 2nd. Maybe 2nd plus.

Nieto doesn't offer the Canucks any value.

Resigning Marcus would potentially be good but you aren't paying for that. You're paying for what he is.

Essentially 2 2nds in value for a defensive 2nd pairing dman rental is a good offer. Could someone beat that? maybe, if they do so be it. Much rather offer 1st + Hog + for the likes of Rasmus Andesson or Bo Byram.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Hoglander was a 2nd rounder who is 7th in goals and 10th in points in his draft class.

He's an everyday NHLer with top 6 upside. Literally been a top 6 player for stretches and produced decently well. He's 23 yrs old. That is worth a lot more than a 3rd or 4th. His value is a high 2nd. Maybe 2nd plus.

Nieto doesn't offer the Canucks any value.

Resigning Marcus would potentially be good but you aren't paying for that. You're paying for what he is.

Essentially 2 2nds in value for a defensive 2nd pairing dman rental is a good offer. Could someone beat that? maybe, if they do so be it. Much rather offer 1st + Hog + for the likes of Rasmus Andesson or Bo Byram.

Like I just posted, he's riding a 16 game pointless streak and has taken more minor penalties than points scored this year. What he has done in his career means nothing when he's having a horrid season right now.

The idea that someone would trade a 2nd+ for him right now is pure lunacy. Hoglander's closer to passing through waivers than having that kind of value. Why does Hoglander have the value of a 2nd+ when the Penguins literally just got Tomasino (who has been as good as Hoglander over his career) for a 2027 4th?

Tomasino before this year: 23 goals and 70 points in 148 games, pace of 13 goals and 39 points per 82 games
Hoglander before this year: 50 goals and 90 points in 221 games, pace of 19 goals and 33 points per 82 games

 

[Johnsie19]

Hoglander and a 2nd for Pettersson sucks for the Penguins. Why would that be enough?

Hoglander's value is dumping further and further down. He is currently riding a 16 game pointless streak where he only has 13 shots on goal over those games, he's quickly going to no value. And with his contract extension that hasn't even kicked in yet, I'm willing to bet another month of this terrible play is going to bring him firmly to negative value.

Even if you take out coincidental minors, Hoglander has more minor penalties than points this year.

I remember when they spoke similarly about JT Miller. Guy sucks right. Negative value player.

To the HF community values meteorically rise and fall on the heels of a weekend of hockey. To NHL teams with scouting staffs that just isn't the case.

As a long time fan of hockey, and having watched Hoglander closely over the yrs. He has top 6 upside without question. Could play there tomorrow if given the opportunity. Would he be able to hold down that spot indefinitely? thats up for debate but the talent, motor, desire are all there.

What is Marcus Pettersson worth as a rental? hard to say, there are always teams willing to throw too much at certain rentals while others like Zadorov go for a 3rd and 5th.

Realistic what should his value be as a talented second pairing defensive defender? in my opinion young roster player + 2nd.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I remember when they spoke similarly about JT Miller. Guy sucks right. Negative value player.

To the HF community values meteorically rise and fall on the heels of a weekend of hockey. To NHL teams with scouting staffs that just isn't the case.

As a long time fan of hockey, and having watched Hoglander closely over the yrs. He has top 6 upside without question. Could play there tomorrow if given the opportunity. Would he be able to hold down that spot indefinitely? thats up for debate but the talent, motor, desire are all there.

What is Marcus Pettersson worth as a rental? hard to say, there are always teams willing to throw too much at certain rentals while others like Zadorov go for a 3rd and 5th.

Realistic what should his value be as a talented second pairing defensive defender? in my opinion young roster player + 2nd.

He has 0 points in his last 16 games.

A young roster player and a 2nd for Pettersson isn't bad value. It's just that Hoglander is bordering on no value right now because of his horrid season, so Hoglander and a 2nd for Pettersson doesn't get it done. It's not that Pettersson is being overvalued, it's that Hoglander is being overvalued.

I threw out Hoglander, Mynio and a 2nd for Pettersson earlier in the thread and I'm sticking with that as what I'd expect. Hoglander should only be the tertiary piece in a Pettersson deal (or a secondary piece with a significantly more valuable primary piece), he's more of a reclamation project throw-in than a major piece.

 

[Gurglesons]

If PIT goes above a 3rd round pick and Acciari / Nieto / Pulju for Hoglander, I'll be annoyed.

Otherwise let him go blossom somewhere else.

 

[Johnsie19]

Like I just posted, he's riding a 16 game pointless streak and has taken more minor penalties than points scored this year. What he has done in his career means nothing when he's having a horrid season right now.

The idea that someone would trade a 2nd+ for him right now is pure lunacy. Hoglander's closer to passing through waivers than having that kind of value. Why does Hoglander have the value of a 2nd+ when the Penguins literally just got Tomasino (who has been as good as Hoglander over his career) for a 2027 4th?

Tomasino before this year: 23 goals and 70 points in 148 games, pace of 13 goals and 39 points per 82 games
Hoglander before this year: 50 goals and 90 points in 221 games, pace of 19 goals and 33 points per 82 games

Thats what pro scouting is all about. Players still have untapped talent and potential in the NHL. If he scores two hattricks this week is he worth a 1st? No. His value isn't based off the last 16 games solely. You wanna reiterate some factoid about minor penalties and goals like ya great, he showed last yr he can play top 6, if you've watched him over the last 18 months you'd know he has top 6 upside. Is he struggling currently? yes, it doesn't crater value to struggle when a coach is being hard on you. I made the point of JT MIller in Tampa to iterate how much a change of scenery and opportunity can do.

Can't speak to Tomasino that seemed like a great deal but I imagine there was character issues or something Nashville didn't like about him because they essentially let him go for nothing. It wasn't because they thought that was a good value trade I don't imagine consider there was no value there. So I dont think that is a great barometer of value.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Thats what pro scouting is all about. Players still have untapped talent and potential in the NHL. If he scores two hattricks this week is he worth a 1st? No. His value isn't based off the last 16 games solely. You wanna reiterate some factoid about minor penalties and goals like ya great, he showed last yr he can play top 6, if you've watched him over the last 18 months you'd know he has top 6 upside. Is he struggling currently? yes, it doesn't crater value to struggle when a coach is being hard on you. I made the point of JT MIller in Tampa to iterate how much a change of scenery and opportunity can do.

Can't speak to Tomasino that seemed like a great deal but I imagine there was character issues or something Nashville didn't like about him because they essentially let him go for nothing. It wasn't because they thought that was a good value trade I don't imagine consider there was no value there. So I dont think that is a great barometer of value.

If his value was based on the last 16 games alone, he'd have negative value. My point is that he doesn't have close to the value of a 2nd+ when he's playing as badly as he is right now.

I'd be willing to go as high as what Gurgs posted above, a 3rd plus a depth forward. I may even be swayed to include Poulin as that depth forward, another young guy that Vancouver could stash on their AHL team for now and see if he develops into anything. He's also someone that JR drafted and the current regime doesn't seem all that high on. But anything more than that for Hoglander seems silly and the Penguins would be far better off finding another Tomasino for a 4th than bothering with Hoglander.

 

[Johnsie19]

He has 0 points in his last 16 games.

A young roster player and a 2nd for Pettersson isn't bad value. It's just that Hoglander is bordering on no value right now because of his horrid season, so Hoglander and a 2nd for Pettersson doesn't get it done. It's not that Pettersson is being overvalued, it's that Hoglander is being overvalued.

I threw out Hoglander, Mynio and a 2nd for Pettersson earlier in the thread and I'm sticking with that as what I'd expect. Hoglander should only be the tertiary piece in a Pettersson deal (or a secondary piece with a significantly more valuable primary piece), he's more of a reclamation project throw-in than a major piece.

Again we're back to forgetting all about what he did last yr. If he scores 4 goals next week is he a bonafide top 6 player? No, player value is not that whimsical, especially not young developing players.

Your offer isn't that horrible. I'd offer Hoglander and a 2nd and move on to bigger fish personally. Who knows though might circle back to your offer, its not a bad offer but it's a touch rich in my estimation.

 

[biturbo19]

Hoglander was a 2nd rounder who is 7th in goals and 10th in points in his draft class.

He's an everyday NHLer with top 6 upside. Literally been a top 6 player for stretches and produced decently well. He's 23 yrs old. That is worth a lot more than a 3rd or 4th. His value is a high 2nd. Maybe 2nd plus.

Nieto doesn't offer the Canucks any value.

Resigning Marcus would potentially be good but you aren't paying for that. You're paying for what he is.

Essentially 2 2nds in value for a defensive 2nd pairing dman rental is a good offer. Could someone beat that? maybe, if they do so be it. Much rather offer 1st + Hog + for the likes of Rasmus Andesson or Bo Byram.

Being completely honest, that's not a very accurate depiction of what Hoglander is. He's worth more than i think a lot of Penguins fans are valuing him at...but he's really not a Top-6 Forward. He's played there, but his best stretches of play have come outside the Top-6. He's actually kind of a boat anchor when he's on one of the top two lines...unless it's a very North-South Center like Horvat as the linchpin. He just can't keep up with real creative East-West puck possessing play.



On the other hand, everyone's gung-ho on Marcus Pettersson, but he's probably a pure rental for Vancouver. He's going to get a stupid contract in the summer. He's going to have $6M+ offers thrown at him, and i'm really not sure he's worth that even with the rising cap. I don't think Vancouver are in a position to be signing him to that sort of deal in any case.

 

[Johnsie19]

If his value was based on the last 16 games alone, he'd have negative value. My point is that he doesn't have close to the value of a 2nd+ when he's playing as badly as he is right now.

I'd be willing to go as high as what Gurgs posted above, a 3rd plus a depth forward. I may even be swayed to include Poulin as that depth forward, another young guy that Vancouver could stash on their AHL team for now and see if he develops into anything. He's also someone that JR drafted and the current regime doesn't seem all that high on. But anything more than that for Hoglander seems silly and the Penguins would be far better off finding another Tomasino for a 4th than bothering with Hoglander.

The thing is it's not like he's playing so badly. He's just in the coaches doghouse. He isn't getting opportunities and his confidence is low. Tocchet is a total stickler coach about minor details, he's being taught a lesson in the hopes of improving his game. I have no doubts he could go to a Bruce Boudreau style coach and put up 20+ goals again.

We don't really need depth forwards. Its a strength of the organization. I don't think people realize how highly the organization thinks of DPetey also. This is a guy who is a defensive dman first so his numbers are nearly irrelevant and yet he's been producing as a bonus and handled the AHL very well. He won't be moved for a rental.

 

[biturbo19]

If PIT goes above a 3rd round pick and Acciari / Nieto / Pulju for Hoglander, I'll be annoyed.

Otherwise let him go blossom somewhere else.

What in the blue heck would the Canucks want with any of Acciari/Nieto/Poolparty? They all suck, very hard. It does absolutely nothing for the Canucks, to swap Hoglander for a much worse player...and a very meh lottery ticket.