Speculation: Hockey Ops Roulette (The Chayka Syndrome)
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Mosby
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- Feb 16, 2012
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GM Alex Meruelo Jr. and Head Coach Jake Barroway
rt
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I think Tocchet has been pushing the narrative that the team has been growing and improving under his tutelage. They even made the playoffs this year. I think he has been pushing the narrative that progress has been hard fought and slower than expected but progress nonetheless.
Additionally, I think he’s been talking about how detrimental all the change has been for his staff, the players and the fans. That all of this volatility is damaging the team. I think he’s been preaching continuity and a drama-free approach.
I think this is appealing to owners who are afraid a rebuild will kill any revenue potential they have left. They want to believe that Tocchet can get them to wins, pack seats, and gain playoff revenue. They feel comfortable with Tocchet’s plan because it’s less scary and he’s the only trusted guy they have left in their camp.
I don’t think these owners are open to voices telling them that it’s not working and that they’re between a rock and a hard place. I don’t think they want to hear that Tocchet is a problem and the core just isn’t good enough and never will be good enough. I don’t think they’re in any mood to hear about short term pain for long term gain. I think they’ve surpassed their short term pain threshold already.
As a result, they’re going to hire a candidate who uses magical thinking and promises that he can work with Tocchet to make sure the team improves and makes the playoffs, all while cutting salary and not making any moves that are too disruptive.
In other words, someone who’s either stupid or lying.
Either way, NOT Steve Sullivan (as unfortunate as that is).
It looks worse than that.
Experienced is a byword for someone who expects autonomy.
XG and Jr. probably fancy themselves real hockey men who know what is best. We're probably significantly underrating their influence on this process and overlooking what they want in a candidate.
rt
Clean Hits on Substack
rt
Clean Hits on Substack
This is a lot like the Tippett situation. The difference is that Tippett was actually credible. This is even worse.
Unfortunately, I'm not surprised. Hextall will be very expensive, but I think in the long run it would be well worth it.
Honestly. Give Sullivan a 2 year deal and try this again when Muerelo’s businesses aren’t getting killed by a global pandemic.
That's what I would do. Gives Sullivan a chance and takes pressure off of Meruelo in making a quick decision, and maybe a costly one.
Muerello could take his time in naming Sullivan GM. He could have him stay on and handle the drat and free agency as acting GM. This would buy Muerello time to sort it out further or get more comfortable with Sullivan and name him GM.
rt
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I wouldn’t bet on it.
My take:
Sullivan wants to tear it half way down and build it back up properly. Essentially calling a mulligan on Chayka’s gun-jump.
Tocchet doesn’t want that. Tocchet wants to keep all his pets and his job. He doesn’t want any rebuilding. He wants continuity and think he’s a great coach who can get this team, as constructed, to be good, win games, and make the playoffs.
These two Men have diametrically opposed philosophies on what the next 3-5 seasons need to look like.
Ownership has no interest in short term pain for long term gain. They’ve surpassed their pain threshold in the short term already. They want the team to at least APPEAR competitive because they want to sell tickets. Tocchet has them convinced he can at least drag this group into the playoffs, even if they won’t get much done when the get there.
I think they have to pick one or Tocchet or Sullivan. This means picking one philosophy or the other. I think taking the easy road with Tocchet is more appealing than taking the hard road with Sullivan.
It’s wrong and short sighted and stupid. But I think it’s what’s happening.
Imagine if they make it and get swept or are close enough at the deadline that you can't trade guys.
This franchise, having drafted nobody of note in the upcoming draft, will be completely and utterly dead in the water.
A smart person wouldn't ever let that be a possibility.
This franchise, having drafted nobody of note in the upcoming draft, will be completely and utterly dead in the water.
A smart person wouldn't ever let that be a possibility.
rt
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Fortunately, I think the team, ad constructed, with Tocchet still at the helm, will implode prior to the next TDL.
The one thing we have to hope for is that Tocchet doesn’t already have an extension in place when that happens. If he’s still on an expiring deal and his team is floundering mid-season, I think we’ll see a 180 degree turn on the philosophy, and Tocchet will be out.
If they hire a pure Tocchet crony like Karmanos, I wouldn’t bet on it. If it’s Sean Burke or Chris MacFarland, we might have a shot.
If Tocchet gets a five year extension this off-season, we can forget about all hope. It’s lost.
Coaches don't go into their final year without any extension with any regularity. Certainly not ones that think of themselves so highly as Tocchet. He'll get a 2 year extension if he survives this summer. Routine.
If he gets more than one or two years we're back to Tippett, only worse off. Time is a flat circle.
rt
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This situation is unique enough that I could see him going into the year without the extension.
But you’re right. Odds are he gets extended. Hopefully it’s not more than two-year deal. If it’s only a two-year, the GM still might be able to convince ownership to let him make a move, if the season is a disaster.
Technically they didn't make the playoffs, they fell into it!
Mosby
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- Feb 16, 2012
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Now is the ideal time for short term pain with no fans in the seats.
- Oct 26, 2006
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Thank the good lord.
