Hockey Cards - Part III

[Cubs2024wildcard]

You definitely won't make money opening up new product. The best way to make money is by spot picking rookies flying under the radar and investing in those when they are dirt cheap. That part of the hobby can be fun too, as you are applying your own knowledge of hockey to come up with good investments. My best pickups were a bunch of 2018/19 Dallas breaks, where I picked up a bunch of Heskianen YGs and 2016/17 Flames breaks where I picked up a bunch of M. Tkachuk. Sold the Tkachuks during last year's playoff run for thousands after only paying a few hundred to enter the breaks in the first place.

If you're opening up new product, you have to find it on sale to make money. I'm way ahead in the hobby, but also bought in around 2013, when the hobby was at a major low (post Crosby and pre-McDavid/Covid hype).

Anyways, making money in the hobby can definitely be done. Just don't blow $1000 on a tin of cup that's likely to give you $200 in cards back, because you're chasing a big rookie. That's just gambling, but with horrible odds.

I agree with everything you say except spending money on ultra modern boxes even if they're on sale.

The gambling aspect has taken over the entire hobby to the point, like you said, spending a grand and getting 200 dollars of value back is considered a win.

1980s are now considered vintage. If I'm buying hockey I'm buying 80s and 70s hofers at high grade dirt cheap and sitting on them.

 

[miscs75]

Then who's the distributor?

That's the kind of shit that gets your account closed.

Series 2 is sitting on retail shelves collecting dust. I highly doubt extended won't be clearance a few months after release like it has been since its inception.

This scenario just screams pump and dump.

I’m almost positive it’s GTS. As for s2, it’s collecting dust because they jacked the price up through the roof and now that Bedard YGs have dropped substantially no one wants to spend $300 for a chance at a $250-$275 YG.

They held back on waitlists and said they didn’t have stock then a month later offered it to the retailers for a substantial markup. It’s just extremely shady and always has been.

 

[blankall]

I agree with everything you say except spending money on ultra modern boxes even if they're on sale.

The gambling aspect has taken over the entire hobby to the point, like you said, spending a grand and getting 200 dollars of value back is considered a win.

1980s are now considered vintage. If I'm buying hockey I'm buying 80s and 70s hofers at high grade dirt cheap and sitting on them.

You can buy 2021/22 24 retail boxes on sale for $20 USD. You can definitely get good value, especially if you pick the set with the best future rookies.

 

[Arthur Morgan]

Depends.

If you want a hobby that's fun then yes.

If you are trying to make money then no. And I mean lol no.

You can make money, but you either need an inventory that was started decades ago or alot of money to gamble with on the new crap that comes out.

ok what gave me the idea was my buddy's daughter loves hockey cards and he just gives her the base and sells the rest. so I was kinda thinking about like collecting young guns and stuff like that and maybe one day sell. but I also kinda figured there would be some out there that are worth ALOT right away

 

[Craig Ludwig]

ok what gave me the idea was my buddy's daughter loves hockey cards and he just gives her the base and sells the rest. so I was kinda thinking about like collecting young guns and stuff like that and maybe one day sell. but I also kinda figured there would be some out there that are worth ALOT right away

My personal opinion, just opening packs/boxes is pretty well like buying lottery scratch cards, highly unlikely you will make money, don't buy the hype on Youtube or TikTok, those guys are in it to make money off of you.

 

[Arthur Morgan]

My personal opinion, just opening packs/boxes is pretty well like buying lottery scratch cards, highly unlikely you will make money, don't buy the hype on Youtube or TikTok, those guys are in it to make money off of you.

ok thanks. I honestly didnt see any vids on it till after I talked to my buddy lol

 

[Cubs2024wildcard]

My National recap-

The National is the only show where I get a mandatory hour long foot massage after every day.

Upper Decks National exclusive boxes hockey hits outside of Gretzky were either extremely discounted or thrown out. The dealer next to me sold me a Forsberg autographed jersey for 25 bucks because he hit a Tiger auto. Those boxes were hand picked for influencers because nobody outside of youtubers were pulling Jordan autos. I saw Shane Wright and Matt Savoie auto posters in a trash can.

I brought a good amount of vintage but didn't put it in my cases. The two people who asked me if I had hockey I let them dig thru the boxes then had to deal with the whole "pandemic collector haggle" routine when they saw something they wanted. I nicely told them "bruh, I'm the only person here with this stuff and comps from two years ago ain't working for me", then had to nicely tell them I'm not trading vintage for young guns, Kabooms, or downtowns.

The National has become more a museum then card show. Most dealers just want to show off what they have instead of selling.

And a word of advice for pandemic collectors- if you are going to the biggest card show of the year, either have cash, debit, or bitcoin. Do not ask a dealer "will you do 500 cash app" or "will you do 100 paypal". It's not a good look.

 

[Cubs2024wildcard]

And before I go on vacation, a little advice;

Do not buy into the repack scam that's been trending in this hobby as of late.

Sell to these crooks. Sell all of your young guns you thought had value at 70-80% comps because that's what they are buying at. But don't buy the repack.

Here's a hint- those cards they're advertising as hits are not in those repacks. The Wemby psa 10 card numbered to 10 you gambled 200 bucks on was either sold to one of their buddies on a social media video to prove "we legit boyyyyy" and given right back to the crook, or was never in the repack in the first place.

If you are paying x amount of dollars with a 50% floor, you are most definitely getting that 50% floor from comps that are months old.

You put 100 bucks into a slot machine, you lose everything until your last ten bucks then magically hit a 50 dollar win, you blow all of it, then put another 100 dollars in the slot machine cuz in your mind "I won 50 bucks tho, maybe next time I'll win 1000"....

Break the cycle.

 

[Dionysus]

And before I go on vacation, a little advice;

Do not buy into the repack scam that's been trending in this hobby as of late.

Sell to these crooks. Sell all of your young guns you thought had value at 70-80% comps because that's what they are buying at. But don't buy the repack.

Here's a hint- those cards they're advertising as hits are not in those repacks. The Wemby psa 10 card numbered to 10 you gambled 200 bucks on was either sold to one of their buddies on a social media video to prove "we legit boyyyyy" and given right back to the crook, or was never in the repack in the first place.

If you are paying x amount of dollars with a 50% floor, you are most definitely getting that 50% floor from comps that are months old.

You put 100 bucks into a slot machine, you lose everything until your last ten bucks then magically hit a 50 dollar win, you blow all of it, then put another 100 dollars in the slot machine cuz in your mind "I won 50 bucks tho, maybe next time I'll win 1000"....

Break the cycle.

Gambling on packs straight from Upper Deck is not great. These repacks are just a way to get rid of cards that wouldn't sell, even worse.

Personally I prefer just buying singles of cards I want. Mitigates your risk, guarantees players or inserts you want. Don't have piles of quickly depreciating cards to to try to sell or fill up boxes with either.

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

ok what gave me the idea was my buddy's daughter loves hockey cards and he just gives her the base and sells the rest. so I was kinda thinking about like collecting young guns and stuff like that and maybe one day sell. but I also kinda figured there would be some out there that are worth ALOT right away

Just buy the cards you want on eBay or Comc individually. If you want base cards for your friends daughter, you can usually buy the complete base set for $20 or so. Doing both these things will build a much better collection per dollar spent than opening boxes.

Historically, if you bought a complete set of Young Guns on COMC after the product drops on ePack and the prices to down a little, you likely break even. Some guys go up, some go down. Obviously, this is not a guarantee, but some guys go up, some top guys bust, but through buying the entire set you equalize against that.

People bring up prospecting like it's also not a form of gambling. Telling someone with no hobby knowledge to pick an underpriced prospect to make money is not great advice. Not only do real life scouts have a difficult time getting it right, there is an added element of pattern recognition required about how and when cards go up or peak in the hobby that takes time to figure out.

 

[Arthur Morgan]

Just buy the cards you want on eBay or Comc individually. If you want base cards for your friends daughter, you can usually buy the complete base set for $20 or so. Doing both these things will build a much better collection per dollar spent than opening boxes.

Historically, if you bought a complete set of Young Guns on COMC after the product drops on ePack and the prices to down a little, you likely break even. Some guys go up, some go down. Obviously, this is not a guarantee, but some guys go up, some top guys bust, but through buying the entire set you equalize against that.

People bring up prospecting like it's also not a form of gambling. Telling someone with no hobby knowledge to pick an underpriced prospect to make money is not great advice. Not only do real life scouts have a difficult time getting it right, there is an added element of pattern recognition required about how and when cards go up or peak in the hobby that takes time to figure out.

well I mean, I kinda like the gamble of it. so I dunno if Id wanna buy cards online. if anything Id wanna sell ones online lol

and yeah Ive realized its more of a hobby then getting into to make money

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

well I mean, I kinda like the gamble of it. so I dunno if Id wanna buy cards online. if anything Id wanna sell ones online lol

and yeah Ive realized its more of a hobby then getting into to make money

If you want to gamble then gamble, but do it knowing that you're burning money and the house always wins.

For every $1000 you spend on hobby boxes, you would be lucky to get $300 worth of cards. Especially with new release products.

There is no realistic justification for breaking boxes. So if it's a case of you knowingly want to lose money like an old lady at a slot machine, then do it. Don't do it with any other mindset.

I'm not saying it's the worst thing in the world to buy a pack or a box once in a blue moon, the same way buying say a 50/50 ticket once a year at a hockey game is not the same as buying lottery tickets every week. I just don't think it's a healthy or productive thing for someone to essentially make their hobby gambling, and even on paper there is no fiscal justification because there is enough proof to conclude that boxes usually produce less in value than what you paid.

 

[Arthur Morgan]

If you want to gamble then gamble, but do it knowing that you're burning money and the house always wins.

For every $1000 you spend on hobby boxes, you would be lucky to get $300 worth of cards. Especially with new release products.

There is no realistic justification for breaking boxes. So if it's a case of you knowingly want to lose money like an old lady at a slot machine, then do it. Don't do it with any other mindset.

I'm not saying it's the worst thing in the world to buy a pack or a box once in a blue moon, the same way buying say a 50/50 ticket once a year at a hockey game is not the same as buying lottery tickets every week. I just don't think it's a healthy or productive thing for someone to essentially make their hobby gambling, and even on paper there is no fiscal justification because there is enough proof to conclude that boxes usually produce less in value than what you paid.

well, I know that lol. but getting a Bedard rookie card would be pretty awesome. but yeah not really expecting to make money if I got into it. besides I kinda gave up on it. card packs are expensive here

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

I think I saw this mentioned in this thread earlier, but this "chaser" pack BS on eBay is getting ridiculous. Very bad for them from a marketing POV, since their entire strategy is based around pushing the Authenticity Guarantee program, and the idea that they are a safe and legitimate platform to buy collectibles. They should go through on a regular basis and simply nerf any account that has a chaser listing. I understand it's common sense that it's a scam, but there are kids and vulnerable people who fall for it.

There might actually be a market for a place like eBay to facilitate "chaser" packs for a fee through their AG program. Where people can send in say 1000 cards and have eBay create the mystery packs, with everything logged (which cards were included, how they were divided), and then sent out through eBay's AG program. The problem with that is that nobody would want to sell mystery packs because the entire profit margin is based on not actually having the main card.

eBay already has a policy against games of chance. Given how far they have leaned into collectibles, it's surprising that they allow this to fly under the radar.

 

[Cubs2024wildcard]

I think I saw this mentioned in this thread earlier, but this "chaser" pack BS on eBay is getting ridiculous. Very bad for them from a marketing POV, since their entire strategy is based around pushing the Authenticity Guarantee program, and the idea that they are a safe and legitimate platform to buy collectibles. They should go through on a regular basis and simply nerf any account that has a chaser listing. I understand it's common sense that it's a scam, but there are kids and vulnerable people who fall for it.

There might actually be a market for a place like eBay to facilitate "chaser" packs for a fee through their AG program. Where people can send in say 1000 cards and have eBay create the mystery packs, with everything logged (which cards were included, how they were divided), and then sent out through eBay's AG program. The problem with that is that nobody would want to sell mystery packs because the entire profit margin is based on not actually having the main card.

eBay already has a policy against games of chance. Given how far they have leaned into collectibles, it's surprising that they allow this to fly under the radar.

Ebay policing repacks is never going to happen. That's too much work for them when they're getting their cut.

Ebay feedback means nothing any more. You can sell scam repacks then sell 100 to bots and have them give you positive feedback to get your percentages back to 99.9.

I'm sorry, but if your buying repacks, or buying into breaks, you are throwing away your money right now.

Sell your shit to that guy on youtube who is giving comps off his shitty app that are ridiculously high. I'm serious.

It's just cardboard. And no matter how anybody tries to make it seem like an investment, it's really just a picture of a man that's been fondled by other men.

 

[Satan]

hit this yesterday on epack, shouldn't be opening wax - especially 2022-23 stuff but got stupid lucky

the offers ive gotten on it have been hilariously bad

 

[Voodoo Glow Skulls]

View attachment 898715

hit this yesterday on epack, shouldn't be opening wax - especially 2022-23 stuff but got stupid lucky

the offers ive gotten on it have been hilariously bad

Probably because the edges aren't that great.

Nice hit though.

 

[blankall]

Probably because the edges aren't that great.

Nice hit though.

Edges on thick cards like that are always bad. That's a 3 colour patch with a hard signed auto. It may be worth waiting until Slafkovsky blows up (if you think that's happening). His stuff dipped a lot after his rookie season wasn't so great.

 

[Voodoo Glow Skulls]

Edges on thick cards like that are always bad. That's a 3 colour patch with a hard signed auto. It may be worth waiting until Slafkovsky blows up (if you think that's happening). His stuff dipped a lot after his rookie season wasn't so great.

I understand that, just sayin'.

Then again, low ball offers are the norm.

 

[Satan]

Probably because the edges aren't that great.

Nice hit though.

It has less to do with the common flaws related to hard signed autographs on thick card stock and more to do with the nature of Habs supporting ePack seagulls

 

[Voodoo Glow Skulls]

It has less to do with the common flaws related to hard signed autographs on thick card stock hard and more to do with the nature of Habs supporting ePack seagulls

Hahahahah seagulls, that's hilarious

 

[Rorschach]

If this was baseball this card would be good. But in hockey only certain products are worth a lot and only certain generational players are worth money no matter the product.

Is this card even a true RC?

 

[CutOnDime97]

Upper Decks National exclusive boxes hockey hits outside of Gretzky were either extremely discounted or thrown out. The dealer next to me sold me a Forsberg autographed jersey for 25 bucks because he hit a Tiger auto. Those boxes were hand picked for influencers because nobody outside of youtubers were pulling Jordan autos. I saw Shane Wright and Matt Savoie auto posters in a trash can.

Peter or Filip?

 

[varsaku]

Probably because the edges aren't that great.

Nice hit though.

aren't epacks put in sleaves/toploaders right off the line? That means the bad edges are an indication of poor production quality control.

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

aren't epacks put in sleaves/toploaders right off the line? That means the bad edges are an indication of poor production quality control.

High value hits are toploaded by default and scanned directly.

Everything else except for numbered inserts uses stock images and are only in penny sleeves.

I recall reading that ePack inventory comes from unsold or returned product from distribution. If that is true, they would be handled both to package (originally) and to be opened and processed by COMC/ePack.

As others have said, it is likely because it is a thick card.

COMC tends to be unfair with how they categorize ePack cards. Upper Deck has had very bad QC over the last few years. COMC does not categorize damage to ePack cards the same way they do with user submissions, or at least they didn't used to as of a few years ago. So in 2021, if you purchased or had shipped home a card with a major flaw, you wouldn't know it until you got the card in person. Miscut, dinged edges, surface issues, etc. Yet, if you submit the exact same card to COMC, they will mark the card as damaged, which makes it less marketable to sell.

So for example, I pull a card with a dinged corner and sell it to someone else. There is no designation that the corner is damaged on COMC. That same person has it shipped to them, and then decides to send it back in a year later, it will be marked under the notes as damaged.