Historical NTDP scoring vs NCAA competition
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MichaelFarrell
Registered User
That line of Smith, Perreault, and Leonard is one of the best. Not only do they all complement each other, all three of them are very skilled and contribute the vast majority of their team’s offense. They are also bigger and more physically mature than previous top lines at the USNTDP.
This is definitely one of the best lines of all time and one of the best teams of all time despite not having the first round picks that 2018-19 had.
This is definitely one of the best lines of all time and one of the best teams of all time despite not having the first round picks that 2018-19 had.
Whalers Fan
Go Habs!
That 2018-19 team still ranks #1, IMO, especially if you look at all their accomplishments over two seasons. They had 7 of the top 15 picks in the 2019 draft, which included a defenseman (York) and goaltender (Knight). During their U17 season, they were greatly responsible for the program's best USHL season ever -- the program's only regular season division title, and the program's only playoff series win (the program had never won a single playoff game previously).
That said, this year's group has been very impressive -- especially the Smith / Perreault / Leonard line. The team set a program record for wins versus NCAA opponents. Between this team and a pretty good U17 team, the team is currently in 2nd place in their USHL division, which is better than usual. They do lack the depth compared with the '18-'19 squad, although Trey Augustine is looking pretty good in goal, too (but he's not going to drafted as high as Knight was in 2019, though).
Postulates
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SimGrindcore
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Frk It
Mo Seider Less Problems
- Jul 27, 2010
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Button has him at #14, hockeyprospect.com has him at #16
The 2001's were great. But its close between them and 1997s (Matthews, Tkachuk, Tage Thompson, Roslovic, Bracco, Troy Terry, Greenway, Greenway, Kunin, White, McAvoy)
Herby
How could Blake have known?
Sure, but that isn’t unique to this class of NTDP kids. All NTDP kids are presumably played down to. This is comparing NTDP kids to other NTDP kids - it’s irrelevant that they’re played down to unless the argument you’re making is that this class in particular is being played down to more than others.
Herby
How could Blake have known?
I just think it’s tough to read to much into how kids do or don’t do vs teams that may or may not be taking the games very seriously.
I like to go to the NTDP games that UM plays to see the best 17 year olds. This years game you could just tell UM just wasn’t really into it like they are in regular games, which resulted in a game they gave up 6 goals, only 1 game all year Vs NCAA teams have they given up more. And we are talking about the 5th best team in the USHL.
Postulates
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the u18 squad would probably win the ushl this year, the u17s have played most the games
Reminds me of when AM34 came to Mariucci as a 17 year old and put on one of the best single game performances of any player I can remember there in 10+ years. Even if it was an exhibition. Was very special to witness.
Welcome to collegehockeystats.net
www.collegehockeystats.net
Very interesting work.
Are they playing the same set of NCAA teams each year? There is so much variation in quality from one NCAA team to another.
Are they playing the same set of NCAA teams each year? There is so much variation in quality from one NCAA team to another.
When I need a quick chuckle, I'll look up a 2018 thread comparing Oliver Wahlstrom and Brady Tkachuk. There were a few posters using Wahlstrom's numbers in NCAA exhibitions that year thinking it was apples to apples with Tkachuk's freshman year numbers at BU.
They were certain that was proof that Wahlstrom was better than Tkachuk. I didn't have a particular horse in the race, but I had to point out how it wasn't unusual for NCAA teams to either split the game between goalies or outright use their backup for the entire game against the NTDP. Even found one game where an NCAA team used its #3 goalie (who never saw a minute of actual game time during that season, and Wahlstrom scored a pair on him). They remained incredulous however.
Whalers Fan
Go Habs!
The schedule changes from year to year, but the quality of opponents is relatively consistent and some teams are on the schedule almost every year (Michigan, MSU, Michigan Tech, etc.).
biturbo19
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- Jul 13, 2010
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It seems impressive, but it also feels like it makes some of these prospects this year, a little bit more difficult to trust for me. Just raises a nagging concern that part of how good they look, is in how well they fit together. The top guys in particular. Is it a bit of a "greater than the sum of it's parts" situation? If you're drafting one of these guys...are they going to look as good when you're not drafting the entire unit? What are you really getting "individually"? They're obviously all skilled individually...but they don't particularly stand out to me, the way some of the previous "elite" USNTDP talent has. How much of it is a sort of synergistic element enhancing and elevating each of their respective levels of play?
It's not a huge worry, but it does introduce some small measure of pause for me.
The NTDP is always a bit of a tricky animal when it comes to compartmentalizing individual performance, and separating out roles/production/linemates/etc. Most years, you end up with a range of opinions on who is "the best" or who is primarily "driving a line", or which of the guys not on the top offensive units has the real "untapped upside" being suppressed in their productivity due to playing a "role" for the team, or who is "leaching". But this year does feel a bit pronounced with that.
It's not a huge worry, but it does introduce some small measure of pause for me.
The NTDP is always a bit of a tricky animal when it comes to compartmentalizing individual performance, and separating out roles/production/linemates/etc. Most years, you end up with a range of opinions on who is "the best" or who is primarily "driving a line", or which of the guys not on the top offensive units has the real "untapped upside" being suppressed in their productivity due to playing a "role" for the team, or who is "leaching". But this year does feel a bit pronounced with that.
Assessing NTDP players has been such a puzzle for me since the schedule varies between USHL, NCAA and International competition.
So I broke their production down by each and used a weighted approach to tallying their NHLe scores to see where they would compare to the rest of the league. For instance, if a player had the following NHLe scores for each split:
USHL (21 GP): 30
NCAA (18 GP): 50
WJC-18 (7 GP): 40
Their NHLe would be about 39. [30*(21/46)]+[50*(18/46)]+[40*(7/46)] = 39.35
Its not perfect, but an improvement from NHLe scores we are seeing elsewhere.
Rk. Name (CSS rank)................NHLe
1. Adam Fantilli (NA #2)..............47
2. Connor Bedard (NA #1)..........46
3. Matvei Michkov (Eur #2).........41
4. Gabe Perreault (NA #15)........37 **
5. Will Smith (NA #3).................36 **
6. Alexander Suvorov (Eur NR)...34
7. Ryan Leonard (NA #4)............32 **
8. Andrew Cristall (NA #16)........31
9. Zach Benson (NA #7).............29
10. Leo Carlsson (Eur #1)...........27
11. Quentin Musty (NA #11)........27
12. Matthew Wood (NA #8)........27
13. Colby Barlow (NA #10).........27
14. Koehn Ziemmer (NA #20)....26
15. Riley Heidt (NA #26)............25
16. Stanislav Yarovoy (Eur #53).25
17. Samuel Honzek (NA #9).......25
18. Oskar Asplund (Eur #62).....24
19. Vadim Moroz (Eur #56).......24
20. Oliver Moore (NA #6)..........23 **
21. Gavin Brindley (NA #40).....22
22. Nate Danielson (NA #13)....22
23. Yegor Sidorov (NA #86).....22
24. Gabriel Szturc (NA #181)....22
25. Brayden Yager (NA #5).......21
Note -
1. I am only listing the top-25 here, but ran about 370 names through the model
2. This is not a draft ranking
So I broke their production down by each and used a weighted approach to tallying their NHLe scores to see where they would compare to the rest of the league. For instance, if a player had the following NHLe scores for each split:
USHL (21 GP): 30
NCAA (18 GP): 50
WJC-18 (7 GP): 40
Their NHLe would be about 39. [30*(21/46)]+[50*(18/46)]+[40*(7/46)] = 39.35
Its not perfect, but an improvement from NHLe scores we are seeing elsewhere.
Rk. Name (CSS rank)................NHLe
1. Adam Fantilli (NA #2)..............47
2. Connor Bedard (NA #1)..........46
3. Matvei Michkov (Eur #2).........41
4. Gabe Perreault (NA #15)........37 **
5. Will Smith (NA #3).................36 **
6. Alexander Suvorov (Eur NR)...34
7. Ryan Leonard (NA #4)............32 **
8. Andrew Cristall (NA #16)........31
9. Zach Benson (NA #7).............29
10. Leo Carlsson (Eur #1)...........27
11. Quentin Musty (NA #11)........27
12. Matthew Wood (NA #8)........27
13. Colby Barlow (NA #10).........27
14. Koehn Ziemmer (NA #20)....26
15. Riley Heidt (NA #26)............25
16. Stanislav Yarovoy (Eur #53).25
17. Samuel Honzek (NA #9).......25
18. Oskar Asplund (Eur #62).....24
19. Vadim Moroz (Eur #56).......24
20. Oliver Moore (NA #6)..........23 **
21. Gavin Brindley (NA #40).....22
22. Nate Danielson (NA #13)....22
23. Yegor Sidorov (NA #86).....22
24. Gabriel Szturc (NA #181)....22
25. Brayden Yager (NA #5).......21
Note -
1. I am only listing the top-25 here, but ran about 370 names through the model
2. This is not a draft ranking
Mickey Marner
Registered User
Good work.
FYI, if you copy from excel and paste it here, HF automatically puts it into a table. Might save you some time & effort in the future.
FYI, if you copy from excel and paste it here, HF automatically puts it into a table. Might save you some time & effort in the future.
Updating earlier set of numbers....final NTDP scoring vs NCAA competition.
1. Phil Kessel (2004-05)............18...20...20...40...2.22
2. Gabe Perreault (2022-23).....22...21...21...42...1.91 <-----
3. Will Smith (2022-23).............22...16...24...40...1.82 <-----
4. Clayton Keller (2015-16)........17...11...19...30...1.76
5. Jack Hughes (2018-19)..........11....4...14...18...1.64
6. Auston Matthews (2014-15)...13...14....6...20...1.54
7. Ryan Leonard (2022-23)........22...16...17...33...1.50 <-----
8. Logan Cooley (2021-22).........12....8...10...18...1.50
9. Matthew Tkachuk (2014-15)...18...11...15...26...1.44
10. Dylan Duke (2020-21)............12...13....4...17...1.42
11. Oliver Moore (2022-23).........20...11...17...28...1.40 <-----
12. Jack D. Hughes (2020-21)......12....4...12...16...1.33
13. Kieffer Bellows (2015-16).......17...15....7...22...1.29
14. Oliver Wahlstrom (2017-18)....15...11....8...19...1.27
15. Trevor Zegras (2018-19).........17....5...16...21...1.24
16. Sonny Milano (2013-14)..........13....5...11...16...1.23
17. Peter Mueller (2004-05)..........27...15...18...33...1.22
18. J. van Riemsdyk (2006-07)....16...10....9...19...1.19
19. Rutger McGroarty (2021-22)..11....5.....8...13...1.18
20. Alex Tuch (2013-14)...............13....8....7...15...1.15
21. Patrick Kane (2005-06).........22...12...13...25...1.14
22. Jimmy Snuggerud (2021-22)..15....6...11...17...1.13
23. Cole Caufield (2018-19).........17...14....5...19...1.12
24. Adam Fox (2015-16)...............17....3...16...19...1.12
25. Luke Hughes (2020-21).........12....1...12...13...1.08
26. Jerremy Bracco (2014-15).....17....5...13...18...1.06
27. Isaac Howard (2021-22)........15....8....7...15...1.00
28. Dylan Larkin (2013-14)...........13....6....7...13...1.00
29. Matthew Boldy (2018-19)......17....9....7...16...0.94
30. Joey Anderson (2015-16)......17....5...11...16...0.94
31. Nick Shore (2009-10).............17....8....8...16...0.94
32. Cutter Gauthier (2021-22).....15....9....5...14...0.93
33. Jon Merrill (2009-10).............12....2....9...11...0.92
34. Red Savage (2020-21).............10....4....5….9...0.90
35. Jason Zucker (2009-10)........16....8....6...14...0.88
36. Nathan Gerbe (2004-05)........23....9...11...20...0.87
37. Ty Keller (2012-13)................20....9....8...17...0.85
38. Jimmy Hayes (2006-07)........19....7....9...16...0.84
39. Ryan Bourque (2008-09)…...23….9…20…19…0.83
40. Stefan Matteau (2011-12)......16....7....6...13...0.81
41. Josh Norris (2016-17)............16....5....8...13...0.81
42. Will Vote (2022-23)................21....6...11...17...0.81 <-----
43. Colin Wilson (2006-07).........20....9....7...16...0.80
44. Kyle Palmieri (2008-09)........20....7....9...16...0.80
45. Ryan Stoa (2004-05).............24....7...12...19...0.79
46. Jerry D'Amigo (2008-09)......24....5...14...19...0.79
47. Bill Sweat (2005-06)............19....8....7....15...0.79
48. Erik Johnson (2005-06).........19....6....9...15...0.79
49. Vinny Saponari (2007-08).......19....8....7...15...0.79
50. Robbie Czarnik (2007-08).......19....6....9...15...0.79
51. Rocco Grimaldi (2010-11).......13....5....5...10...0.77
52. Nic Kerdiles (2011-12)............17....4....9...13...0.76
53. Scott Reedy (2016-17)...........17....7....6...13...0.76
54. Evan Barrett (2016-17)...........17....2...11...13...0.76
55. Ryan Hayes (2006-17)............20...8....7...15...0.75
56. Trent Frederic (2015-16).........16...7....5...12...0.75
57. Aidan Hreshuk (2020-21)........12....1....8...9...0.75
58. John Albert (2006-07)...........19....4...10...14...0.74
59. Joel Farabee (2017-18)..........15....4....7...11...0.73
60. Lane Hutson (2021-22).........15....3....8...11...0.73
61. Frank Nazar (2021-22)..........15....2....9...11...0.73
62. Kenny Ryan (2008-09).........26...11...8...19...0.73
63. Jack Eichel (2013-14)............11....3....5....8...0.73
64. Thomas Bordeleau (19-20)....18....6....7...13...0.72
65. Matthew Beniers (2019-20)...18....5...13...13...0.72
66. Jordan Schroeder (2007-08)...18....5....8...13...0.72
67. Beckett Henrickson (22-23)...14....4....6...10...0.71 <-----
68. Bill Arnold (2009-10)............14....4....6...10...0.71
69. A.J. Treais (2008-09)............24....6...11...17...0.71
70. Jeremy Morin (2008-09).........24...12...5...17...0.71
71. Brandon Saad (2009-10)........17....5....7...12...0.71
72. Blake Geoffrion (2005-06)......20....8....6...14...0.70
73. Jack Johnson (2004-05)...........23....6...10...16...0.70
74. Andres Bjork (2013-14)..........13....6....3....9...0.69
75. Brandon Fortunato (13-14).....13....1....8....9...0.69
76. Cam Fowler (2008-09)..........26....4...14...18...0.69
77. Chris Brown (2008-09)..........26...12....6...18...0.69
78. Ryan Hartman (2011-12).........16....5....6...11...0.68
79. Zeev Buium (2022-23).........22....1...14...15...0.68 <-----
80. Jack Skille (2004-05)..............27....8...10...18...0.67
81. Danny Nelson (2022-23)........21....6....8...14...0.67 <-----
82. Kyle Lawson (2004-05).........21....2...12...14...0.67
83. Troy Terry (2014-15)..............18....6....6...12...0.67
84. Jack Roslovic (2014-15).........18....4....8...12...0.67
85. Brady Thachuk (2016-17).......15....6....4...10...0.67
86. Charlie Cerrato (2022-23).......15....3....7...10...0.67
87. Mike Carman (2005-06).........20....6....7...13...0.65
88. Luke Moffatt (2009-10).........17....6....5...11...0.65
89. Austin Czarnik (2009-10).......17....2....9...11...0.65
90. Adam Clendening (2009-10)...17....2....9...11...0.65
91. Drew Fortescue (2022-23)......22....0...14...14...0.64
92. JT Compher (2012-13)............14....2....7....9...0.64
93. Jason Lawrence (2004-05)......27...12....5...17...0.63
94. Will Butcher (2012-13)............19....4....8...12...0.63
95. Christian Fischer (2014-15).....18....6....5...11...0.61
96. Kevin Shattenkirk (2006-07)...20....3....9...12...0.60
97. Quinn Hughes (2016-17)......17....1....9...10...0.59
98. Ty Smilanic (2019-20)...........14....2....6....8...0.57
99. Paul Fischer (2022-23)...........16....1....8....9...0.56 <-----
100. Tyler Motte (2012-13)........20....6....5...11...0.55
1. Phil Kessel (2004-05)............18...20...20...40...2.22
2. Gabe Perreault (2022-23).....22...21...21...42...1.91 <-----
3. Will Smith (2022-23).............22...16...24...40...1.82 <-----
4. Clayton Keller (2015-16)........17...11...19...30...1.76
5. Jack Hughes (2018-19)..........11....4...14...18...1.64
6. Auston Matthews (2014-15)...13...14....6...20...1.54
7. Ryan Leonard (2022-23)........22...16...17...33...1.50 <-----
8. Logan Cooley (2021-22).........12....8...10...18...1.50
9. Matthew Tkachuk (2014-15)...18...11...15...26...1.44
10. Dylan Duke (2020-21)............12...13....4...17...1.42
11. Oliver Moore (2022-23).........20...11...17...28...1.40 <-----
12. Jack D. Hughes (2020-21)......12....4...12...16...1.33
13. Kieffer Bellows (2015-16).......17...15....7...22...1.29
14. Oliver Wahlstrom (2017-18)....15...11....8...19...1.27
15. Trevor Zegras (2018-19).........17....5...16...21...1.24
16. Sonny Milano (2013-14)..........13....5...11...16...1.23
17. Peter Mueller (2004-05)..........27...15...18...33...1.22
18. J. van Riemsdyk (2006-07)....16...10....9...19...1.19
19. Rutger McGroarty (2021-22)..11....5.....8...13...1.18
20. Alex Tuch (2013-14)...............13....8....7...15...1.15
21. Patrick Kane (2005-06).........22...12...13...25...1.14
22. Jimmy Snuggerud (2021-22)..15....6...11...17...1.13
23. Cole Caufield (2018-19).........17...14....5...19...1.12
24. Adam Fox (2015-16)...............17....3...16...19...1.12
25. Luke Hughes (2020-21).........12....1...12...13...1.08
26. Jerremy Bracco (2014-15).....17....5...13...18...1.06
27. Isaac Howard (2021-22)........15....8....7...15...1.00
28. Dylan Larkin (2013-14)...........13....6....7...13...1.00
29. Matthew Boldy (2018-19)......17....9....7...16...0.94
30. Joey Anderson (2015-16)......17....5...11...16...0.94
31. Nick Shore (2009-10).............17....8....8...16...0.94
32. Cutter Gauthier (2021-22).....15....9....5...14...0.93
33. Jon Merrill (2009-10).............12....2....9...11...0.92
34. Red Savage (2020-21).............10....4....5….9...0.90
35. Jason Zucker (2009-10)........16....8....6...14...0.88
36. Nathan Gerbe (2004-05)........23....9...11...20...0.87
37. Ty Keller (2012-13)................20....9....8...17...0.85
38. Jimmy Hayes (2006-07)........19....7....9...16...0.84
39. Ryan Bourque (2008-09)…...23….9…20…19…0.83
40. Stefan Matteau (2011-12)......16....7....6...13...0.81
41. Josh Norris (2016-17)............16....5....8...13...0.81
42. Will Vote (2022-23)................21....6...11...17...0.81 <-----
43. Colin Wilson (2006-07).........20....9....7...16...0.80
44. Kyle Palmieri (2008-09)........20....7....9...16...0.80
45. Ryan Stoa (2004-05).............24....7...12...19...0.79
46. Jerry D'Amigo (2008-09)......24....5...14...19...0.79
47. Bill Sweat (2005-06)............19....8....7....15...0.79
48. Erik Johnson (2005-06).........19....6....9...15...0.79
49. Vinny Saponari (2007-08).......19....8....7...15...0.79
50. Robbie Czarnik (2007-08).......19....6....9...15...0.79
51. Rocco Grimaldi (2010-11).......13....5....5...10...0.77
52. Nic Kerdiles (2011-12)............17....4....9...13...0.76
53. Scott Reedy (2016-17)...........17....7....6...13...0.76
54. Evan Barrett (2016-17)...........17....2...11...13...0.76
55. Ryan Hayes (2006-17)............20...8....7...15...0.75
56. Trent Frederic (2015-16).........16...7....5...12...0.75
57. Aidan Hreshuk (2020-21)........12....1....8...9...0.75
58. John Albert (2006-07)...........19....4...10...14...0.74
59. Joel Farabee (2017-18)..........15....4....7...11...0.73
60. Lane Hutson (2021-22).........15....3....8...11...0.73
61. Frank Nazar (2021-22)..........15....2....9...11...0.73
62. Kenny Ryan (2008-09).........26...11...8...19...0.73
63. Jack Eichel (2013-14)............11....3....5....8...0.73
64. Thomas Bordeleau (19-20)....18....6....7...13...0.72
65. Matthew Beniers (2019-20)...18....5...13...13...0.72
66. Jordan Schroeder (2007-08)...18....5....8...13...0.72
67. Beckett Henrickson (22-23)...14....4....6...10...0.71 <-----
68. Bill Arnold (2009-10)............14....4....6...10...0.71
69. A.J. Treais (2008-09)............24....6...11...17...0.71
70. Jeremy Morin (2008-09).........24...12...5...17...0.71
71. Brandon Saad (2009-10)........17....5....7...12...0.71
72. Blake Geoffrion (2005-06)......20....8....6...14...0.70
73. Jack Johnson (2004-05)...........23....6...10...16...0.70
74. Andres Bjork (2013-14)..........13....6....3....9...0.69
75. Brandon Fortunato (13-14).....13....1....8....9...0.69
76. Cam Fowler (2008-09)..........26....4...14...18...0.69
77. Chris Brown (2008-09)..........26...12....6...18...0.69
78. Ryan Hartman (2011-12).........16....5....6...11...0.68
79. Zeev Buium (2022-23).........22....1...14...15...0.68 <-----
80. Jack Skille (2004-05)..............27....8...10...18...0.67
81. Danny Nelson (2022-23)........21....6....8...14...0.67 <-----
82. Kyle Lawson (2004-05).........21....2...12...14...0.67
83. Troy Terry (2014-15)..............18....6....6...12...0.67
84. Jack Roslovic (2014-15).........18....4....8...12...0.67
85. Brady Thachuk (2016-17).......15....6....4...10...0.67
86. Charlie Cerrato (2022-23).......15....3....7...10...0.67
87. Mike Carman (2005-06).........20....6....7...13...0.65
88. Luke Moffatt (2009-10).........17....6....5...11...0.65
89. Austin Czarnik (2009-10).......17....2....9...11...0.65
90. Adam Clendening (2009-10)...17....2....9...11...0.65
91. Drew Fortescue (2022-23)......22....0...14...14...0.64
92. JT Compher (2012-13)............14....2....7....9...0.64
93. Jason Lawrence (2004-05)......27...12....5...17...0.63
94. Will Butcher (2012-13)............19....4....8...12...0.63
95. Christian Fischer (2014-15).....18....6....5...11...0.61
96. Kevin Shattenkirk (2006-07)...20....3....9...12...0.60
97. Quinn Hughes (2016-17)......17....1....9...10...0.59
98. Ty Smilanic (2019-20)...........14....2....6....8...0.57
99. Paul Fischer (2022-23)...........16....1....8....9...0.56 <-----
100. Tyler Motte (2012-13)........20....6....5...11...0.55
Breakers
Make Mirrored Visors Legal Again
Contracts are negotiated each season among conferences on how many games they play out of conference and NTDP has a representative trying to fit their games in.
Some schools don't have the budget so they'll negotiate another weekend series in conference and their SOS goes up.
I mean Bethel university is division 3 and division 3 schools dont offer scholarships
so you're right there is a MASSIVE variation in quality
and stats dont show up for NCAA players, its completely blank like it didn't happen, no names or anything
it just says (Michigan state even strength) so they do give depth guys games and let other players rest who may be battling a injury.
it means a lot when you're in the program, but substantially less once you're in university as conference games are what matters.
Thanks for the update.
My takeaway is that all four of this year's top forwards are putting up great numbers. Smith and Perreault are putting up ridiculous numbers but have some projectability concerns. Leonard and Moore are super projectable and also have great scoring numbers this year, ahead of the draft year numbers for Boldy, Caufield, Tuch, Zegras, and JVR. You sometimes hear people say something like "Leonard and Moore look good but they're not scoring enough to go top 10". They actually are scoring enough to go top 10.
sigx15
Registered User
- Jan 31, 2010
- 875
- 919
I’d encourage you to go check out his thread but the long and short of it, there are questions around his skating/stride, whether it can improve and how it’ll translate to the NHL
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