Historical NTDP scoring vs NCAA competition

[Favin]

Thanks for the update.

My takeaway is that all four of this year's top forwards are putting up great numbers. Smith and Perreault are putting up ridiculous numbers but have some projectability concerns. Leonard and Moore are super projectable and also have great scoring numbers this year, ahead of the draft year numbers for Boldy, Caufield, Tuch, Zegras, and JVR. You sometimes hear people say something like "Leonard and Moore look good but they're not scoring enough to go top 10". They actually are scoring enough to go top 10.

I have a developing theory that the more loaded NTDP teams have some harder to project pieces...just look to the middle-six guys on 2015, 2019 teams.

It will be interesting if the top line sticks together as a unit next year.

 

[WarriorofTime]

To really get a sense, you'd probably really have to break down their opponents annually and determine which one played more defensive or free flowing systems to get a sense of how much they typically were scored on that season.

 

[Favin]

Contracts are negotiated each season among conferences on how many games they play out of conference and NTDP has a representative trying to fit their games in.
Some schools don't have the budget so they'll negotiate another weekend series in conference and their SOS goes up.

I mean Bethel university is division 3 and division 3 schools dont offer scholarships

so you're right there is a MASSIVE variation in quality
and stats dont show up for NCAA players, its completely blank like it didn't happen, no names or anything

it just says (Michigan state even strength) so they do give depth guys games and let other players rest who may be battling a injury.
it means a lot when you're in the program, but substantially less once you're in university as conference games are what matters.

1. The stats do not show up for NCAA players on the USNTDP website, but they do if you look at each school's website. The NCAA players do not count stats in exhibition matches toward their NCAA totals.

2. There is a myth that NCAA teams rest their stars for games vs NTDP. It is just not true. Sometimes they may start a back-up goalie, or give one or two guys rest...and sometimes they may have a player or two on international duty (if played around WJC). But for the most part, the rosters as just the same as any other game. For instance, when they played #1 Minnesota, they didn't see Cooley, Snuggerud or Chesley since they were away with WJC but every other Gopher who notched a point this season played. When they faced North Dakota, only one regular (Hain) sat. Against Michigan, game followed WJC, but everyone else except Hughes and Holtz played. Against Michigan State, 19 or their top-20 scorers played. Against Notre Dame, all 20 of their top-20 played. One missed Lake State game due to injury. Against Boston University, two seniors (Fensore and O'Brien) got rested. Yale held one guy for rest, one for injury. Same for Wisconsin. ...and so on. They are facing full D1 teams.

3. Some have also said that NCAA players don't play hard vs NTDP. Everything I have ever seen, read, heard has said the opposite. Most top D1 teams have players who played for NTDP and a few others that tried out. Most of these games are televised and played in front of packed arenas.

4. Keep in mind that the NTDP has no 19-20 year olds. The average age to start season is 17 years, 4 months old. On average, they are a full year younger than other junior leagues (USHL average is 18 years, 6 months...all CHL leagues are between 18 and 18.5 years) and nearly five years younger than average NCAA team. The age gap is huge.

5. Lastly, while people will deride these figures, the truth is, scouts pay very close attention to them.

Very interesting work.

Are they playing the same set of NCAA teams each year? There is so much variation in quality from one NCAA team to another.

There is some variation year-to-year as the schedule changes each year, but however you slice it, you get a similar list. Here is the top-25 counting just Division 1 games below.

Name	GP	G	A	PTS	PPG
Phil Kessel (2004-05)	15​	14​	16​	30​	2.00​
Gabe Perreault (2022-23)	17​	17​	16​	33​	1.94​
Will Smith (2022-23)	17​	10​	20​	30​	1.76​
Ryan Leonard (2022-23)	17​	14​	14​	28​	1.65​
Clayton Keller (2015-16)	14​	9​	14​	23​	1.64​
Jack Hughes (2018-19)	10​	2​	14​	16​	1.60​
Oliver Moore (2022-23)	15​	9​	13​	22​	1.47​
Matthew Tkachuk (2014-15)	13​	7​	12​	19​	1.46​
Kieffer Bellows (2015-16)	14​	13​	6​	19​	1.36​
Logan Cooley (2021-22)	14​	7​	12​	19​	1.36​
Auston Matthews (2014-15)	10​	9​	4​	13​	1.30​
Peter Mueller (2004-05)	18​	9​	14​	23​	1.28​
Patrick Kane (2005-06)	19​	23​	23​	24​	1.26​
Trevor Zegras (2018-19)	16​	5​	15​	20​	1.25​
Oliver Wahlstrom (2017-18)	13​	9​	6​	15​	1.15​
Cole Caufield (2018-19)	16​	14​	4​	18​	1.13​
Jerery Bracco (2014-15)	12​	5​	8​	13​	1.08​
Adam Fox (2015-16)	14​	2​	13​	15​	1.07​
James van Riemsdyk (2006-07)	15​	8​	8​	16​	1.07​
Ryan Stoa (2004-05)	16​	5​	11​	16​	1.00​
Jimmy Snuggerud (2021-22)	16​	5​	10​	15​	0.94​
Joey Anderson (2015-16)	14​	3​	10​	13​	0.93​
Stefan Matteau (2011-12)	11​	6​	4​	10​	0.91​
Isaac Howard (2021-22)	16​	6​	8​	14​	0.88​

 

[Breakers]

1. The stats do not show up for NCAA players on the USNTDP website, but they do if you look at each school's website. The NCAA players do not count stats in exhibition matches toward their NCAA totals.

2. There is a myth that NCAA teams rest their stars for games vs NTDP. It is just not true. Sometimes they may start a back-up goalie, or give one or two guys rest...and sometimes they may have a player or two on international duty (if played around WJC). But for the most part, the rosters as just the same as any other game. For instance, when they played #1 Minnesota, they didn't see Cooley, Snuggerud or Chesley since they were away with WJC but every other Gopher who notched a point this season played. When they faced North Dakota, only one regular (Hain) sat. Against Michigan, game followed WJC, but everyone else except Hughes and Holtz played. Against Michigan State, 19 or their top-20 scorers played. Against Notre Dame, all 20 of their top-20 played. One missed Lake State game due to injury. Against Boston University, two seniors (Fensore and O'Brien) got rested. Yale held one guy for rest, one for injury. Same for Wisconsin. ...and so on. They are facing full D1 teams.

3. Some have also said that NCAA players don't play hard vs NTDP. Everything I have ever seen, read, heard has said the opposite. Most top D1 teams have players who played for NTDP and a few others that tried out. Most of these games are televised and played in front of packed arenas.

4. Keep in mind that the NTDP has no 19-20 year olds. The average age to start season is 17 years, 4 months old. On average, they are a full year younger than other junior leagues (USHL average is 18 years, 6 months...all CHL leagues are between 18 and 18.5 years) and nearly five years younger than average NCAA team. The age gap is huge.

5. Lastly, while people will deride these figures, the truth is, scouts pay very close attention to them.

​

well of course scouts are going to pay attention to them. It's their draft year

and you literally note they may rest one or two guys which I said battling injury, coaches say they do. it has zero standing in anything they do that season

priorities change from NTDP to university on what the important games are
the exhibitions take a back seat easily.

 

[Favin]

To really get a sense, you'd probably really have to break down their opponents annually and determine which one played more defensive or free flowing systems to get a sense of how much they typically were scored on that season.

That would take a level of qualitative analysis that would be difficult to measure year-to-year. We can look at point totals vs each NCAA team listed by their rank in GA/gp. May be oversimplifying. Here is a few of the top guys for 2019 and 2023.

2018-19

Date	Opp Def Rank	Hughes	Caufield	Boldy	Turcotte	Zegras
10/6/18​	#53	0	0	1	DNP	1
10/7/18​	#12	0	0	3	DNP	1
10/12/18​	#46	3	0	0	DNP	3
10/13/18​	#32	1	0	0	DNP	0
10/19/18​	#28	2	0	1	DNP	3
10/20/18​	#21	0	0	1	DNP	0
10/22/18​	#27	3	1	1	DNP	3
11/21/18​	#2	1	2	0	DNP	1
12/8/18​	#29	3	2	0	DNP	1
12/15/18​	#50	DNP	0	0	0	0
12/16/18​	#17	DNP	1	0	1	1
12/27/18​	#11	DNP	3	1	2	0
12/29/18​	#16	DNP	1	2	1	0
1/1/19​	#43	DNP	3	1	3	3
1/5/19​	#3	DNP	2	0	0	2
1/8/19​	[Div III]	2	1	4	3	1
1/12/19​	#54	3	3	1	2	1

2022-23

Date	Opp Def Rank	Smith	Moore	Leonard	Perreault
10/1/22​	#39	3	1	1	1
10/2/22​	#21	1	2	3	2
10/7/22​	#47	1	0	2	3
10/8/22​	#7	2	1	2	2
10/14/22​	#48	3	2	2	2
10/15/22​	[Div III]	1	1	0	1
10/21/22​	#49	4	2	1	3
10/23/22​	#45	2	1	2	3
11/18/22​	#46	2	2	2	1
11/19/22​	#17	2	0	0	2
11/26/22​	#16	2	2	2	2
11/27/22​	#36	0	2	1	0
12/10/22​	[Div III]	1	0	0	0
12/29/22​	#6	0	2	0	1
12/31/22​	#29	3	0	3	3
1/6/23​	#42	2	DNP	4	3
1/7/23​	#52	2	DNP	1	3
1/13/23​	#54	0	4	1	0
1/24/23​	[Div III]	2	0	1	2
1/27/23​	#44	1	1	1	2
2/24/23​	#61	3	4	2	2
2/25/23​	#61	3	1	2	4

 

[Favin]

well of course scouts are going to pay attention to them. It's their draft year

and you literally note they may rest one or two guys which I said battling injury, coaches say they do. it has zero standing in anything they do that season

priorities change from NTDP to university on what the important games are
the exhibitions take a back seat easily.

Teams will rest guys battling injury throughout season, regardless of the opponent.

Your comments made it sound like you believed these games were some sort of scrimmage, where the stars rest, the scrubs play and no one pays attention. I am telling you that is inaccurate. Even if what you were suggesting were true...an average NCAA team, resting their stars and playing in front of empty building, is still much more formidable competition than any junior league in the world.

For anyone who wants to follow NHL prospects and the draft seriously, these games are very important.

 

[Breakers]

Teams will rest guys battling injury throughout season, regardless of the opponent.

Your comments made it sound like you believed these games were some sort of scrimmage, where the stars rest, the scrubs play and no one pays attention. I am telling you that is inaccurate. Even if what you were suggesting were true...an average NCAA team, resting their stars and playing in front of empty building, is still much more formidable competition than any junior league in the world.

For anyone who wants to follow NHL prospects and the draft seriously, these games are very important.

1) Rivalry games
2) Conference games
3) Ranked games
-
-
4)Exhibition (NTDP)

They are not even in the same realm of the top 3 to college teams

“so they do give depth guys games and let other players rest who may be battling a injury”
That was my quote, and yes having played college hockey exhibition games are when this happens and to work on systems in game without repercussions of your national ranking on conference standings.

They are insanely important to U18 players and the games they wake up for and look forward to part from international tournaments which don’t have ice time restrictions

That importance does not carry over once you are in college

 

[Favin]

1) Rivalry games
2) Conference games
3) Ranked games
-
-
4)Exhibition (NTDP)

They are not even in the same realm of the top 3 to college teams

“so they do give depth guys games and let other players rest who may be battling a injury”
That was my quote, and yes having played college hockey exhibition games are when this happens and to work on systems in game without repercussions of your national ranking on conference standings.

They are insanely important to U18 players and the games they wake up for and look forward to part from international tournaments which don’t have ice time restrictions

That importance does not carry over once you are in college

In theory, maybe. But in reality, no.

If you are a NCAA player and NTDP comes to town, they bring the spotlight with them. They will be more scouts, more coaches, more commentators watching those games than most of the others. Just the amount of extras that these games bring can be considerable. It can be a fine time to get noticed.

To many players, these games are as big as any other in regular season.

 

[Breakers]

In theory, maybe. But in reality, no.

If you are a NCAA player and NTDP comes to town, they bring the spotlight with them. They will be more scouts, more coaches, more commentators watching those games than most of the others. Just the amount of extras that these games bring can be considerable. It can be a fine time to get noticed.

To many players, these games are as big as any other in regular season.

LOLOL
Not even remotely close. Rivarly games (gold pan, beanpot, duel in the D etc, etc) trump exhibition NTDP and it isnt even remotely close.
but keep believing that if you want.

 

[Favin]

LOLOL
Not even remotely close. Rivarly games (gold pan, beanpot, duel in the D etc, etc) trump exhibition NTDP and it isnt even remotely close.
but keep believing that if you want.

Gosh, maybe you are in the wrong thread.

If you have something to say about NTDP players and historical performance vs NCAA teams, feel free to comment.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Answer is probably somewhere in the middle. Teams might not be 100% up for the NTDP games, but it's still college-age competition, and it's not like all these college teams have an entire B team just sitting around. Every game is still 80%+ of the normal roster. It means something.

 

[Favin]

Answer is probably somewhere in the middle. Teams might not be 100% up for the NTDP games, but it's still college-age competition, and it's not like all these college teams have an entire B team just sitting around. Every game is still 80%+ of the normal roster. It means something.

I would argue rosters are closer to 95% of available players. The only real differentiation is that the NTDP are more often facing back-up goalies.

But at the end of the day, it is a bunch of 17-year olds playing against a bunch of 22-year olds in one of the more visible regular season match-ups of these season. And a couple of these kids have put up nearly 2 ppg. Gotta tip the hat to them.

 

[Oak]

Interpret this however you'd like....but I found interesting how much this year's NTDP crop is scoring against older, bigger competition

College game has become a lot less physical than it used to be so skill guys are thriving more now.