GDT: High Effort GDT

[StormCast]

I was going to stay away from any serious comment in this thread, but this bit of information is just too much to let go...especially since it didn't seem to resonate with the broader audience. Hell, it didn't even resonate with the person who posted it, for chrissakes...which is just mind-boggling to me.

If I may, I'd like to proceed on the assumption that this information is 100% accurate. I have no way of knowing that Muller actually said that he wanted 38-second shifts, but if I can't count on Tripp Tracy and Mike Maniscalco to deliver this tidbit of information accurately, then I'll take my lumps with the disclaimer that I put too much trust in our "insiders" and will be forever suspicious of them going forward.

Those 3 guys also had the most PP time than any of the other forwards where long shifts times impact overall TOI. Without doing an in-depth analysis, let's look at Tlusty. Allowing for partial shifts, he's out with Staal and Semin nearly every shift. He played little on the PP. His shift time for the game? It was 39 seconds.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

For reference, here is the avg. shift length last night for all forwards.

Jeff Skinner 0:55
Alexander Semin 0:52
Eric Staal 0:52
Tuomo Ruutu 0:47
Jordan Staal 0:45
Riley Nash 0:45
Patrick Dwyer 0:44
Kevin Westgarth 0:44
Adam Hall 0:42
Chad LaRose 0:41
Jiri Tlusty 0:39
Tim Brent 0:37

 

[bleedgreen]

Those 3 guys also had the most PP time than any of the other forwards where long shifts times impact overall TOI. Without doing an in-depth analysis, let's look at Tlusty. Allowing for partial shifts, he's out with Staal and Semin nearly every shift. He played little on the PP. His shift time for the game? It was 39 seconds.

I love these stats arguments. So easily swayed back and forth.

 

[caniac315]

Inexcusable is the word you're looking for.

Even if, by some miraculous act of ignorance, the team didn't realize they collapse like a house of cards during their 5-game skid last week, having all that time off and then doing the SAME ****ING THING is just beyond comprehension.

My thoughts exactly. I'm perplexed and more frustrated than I think I've been in a long time with this team, and that's saying a lot.

 

[Finlandia WOAT]

Those 3 guys also had the most PP time than any of the other forwards where long shifts times impact overall TOI. Without doing an in-depth analysis, let's look at Tlusty. Allowing for partial shifts, he's out with Staal and Semin nearly every shift. He played little on the PP. His shift time for the game? It was 39 seconds.

The 52 second mark for Staal is achieved by converting his TOI minutes (20:07) into seconds, and then dividing that by the number of shifts he took. So it would seem that the 52 second mark was indeed skewed by PP time.

Which is interesting, because John and MM had a nice little rant about how the leaders in the lockerroom (that was as specific as they got) need to listen to the coach, and used that number as proof that it wasn't happening. It was implied that Muller's comments were directly linked to that issue.

MM I can understand (though I believe that he is much smarter than some on this board will give credit) giving himself over to emotion, but John is interesting, because he seemed very PO'ed about this issue.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Given this, my question to all of you is what more do you need as evidence that Eric Staal is not leading this team as one would expect of a team captain? The coach clearly states that he wants shift lengths to be at a certain number, yet the result is that the captain fails to even come close to what his coach asked of him. If you can't get your captain to follow your directive (sticking to the system), then you've lost the team.

Furthermore, it doesn't say much about Muller that he wasn't able to enforce his main #1 directive. Surely he could have queried Pete Friesen a time or two to find out how long the shifts were adding up to, or even got a report at the first/second intermission, then brought the hammer down when he found out the boys weren't doing what he asked of them.

I had a long response typed out, but then it occurred to me to check the shift chart for the game: http://www.nhl.com/scores/htmlreports/20122013/TH020482.HTM

Staal had 12 shifts of 48 seconds or less (ie, within 10 seconds of a 38-second target), and 11 shifts of 49 seconds or more. Of the ones which were longer:
1) 2:26 - Drew a penalty, and then stayed out for 3/4ths of the ensuing power play
2) 1:52 - Double-shifted a power play
3) 1:49 - Double-shifted a power play
Take away those three PP double-shifts and his average shift was 0:41.5, or less than 4 seconds longer than his target average.

Semin had 11 shifts of 48 seconds or less, and 11 shifts of 49 seconds or more. Of the ones which were longer:
1) 2:21 - The same double-shift in which Staal drew a penalty and then stayed on for the PP.
2) 1:40 - The same double-shift as Staal's
3) 1:02 - The back end of a PK
4) 0:58 - A PP shift
Take away these special-teams shifts and his average shift was 45 seconds, or 7 seconds longer than his target average.

Skinner had 12 shifts of 48 seconds or less, and 11 shifts of 49 seconds or more. Of the ones which were longer:
1) 1:25 - That same first long PP shift that Staal and Semin skated, except of course Skinner wasn't on the ice before the PP.
2) 2:18 - He skated a full shift that ended in him being high-sticked, then stayed on for most of the ensuing PP.
3) 1:55 - Skated a shift that ended in Winnipeg's TMM penalty, then stayed on for the front end of the PP.
Take away these special-teams double-shifts and his average shift was 47.6 seconds, or about 10 seconds longer than his target average.

And considering the way Skinner's line was getting pinned down in their own zone defensively, I bet that accounts for a bunch of those 1:00+ shifts during ES time. That said, I do specifically remember him looking gassed and skating right past the bench in the second period, so he might legitimately need some coaching/reaming in regard to getting off the ice at the appropriate time.


To me, a first-line center averaging 42 seconds instead of 38 is nothing at all to be worried about. Semin could shorten his shifts, but he was probably our best forward again last night and frankly his shift length is the least of our worries. Skinner could afford to improve his hockey sense a bit, but that's not a revelation.

No evidence of dissent or bad coaching here, just in-game line management that was 100% under Muller's control.

 

[Finlandia WOAT]

That shift chart is really cool.

 

[geehaad]

http://www.nhl.com/scores/htmlreports/20122013/TH020482.HTM

His opening shift was 59 seconds...leading the team in the wrong direction right from the first shift.

 

[tarheelhockey]

That shift chart is really cool.

Yeah, only once in a blue moon is it actually relevant, but it's a great resource when that blue moon comes up.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

The 52 second mark for Staal is achieved by converting his TOI minutes (20:07) into seconds, and then dividing that by the number of shifts he took. So it would seem that the 52 second mark was indeed skewed by PP time.

Which is interesting, because John and MM had a nice little rant about how the leaders in the lockerroom (that was as specific as they got) need to listen to the coach, and used that number as proof that it wasn't happening. It was implied that Muller's comments were directly linked to that issue.

MM I can understand (though I believe that he is much smarter than some on this board will give credit) giving himself over to emotion, but John is interesting, because he seemed very PO'ed about this issue.

I can't imagine having Forslund's job at a time like this. As fans, we can rant, rave, curse and blame whoever we want.

Forslund has to try and draw positives out of this 6 game streak...and there's just nothing there. No line is producing, no defenseman is playing well, the special teams are awful, and now Forslund can't even talk about how well Muller's doing, because apparently the team is ignoring everything he says to do.

Plus, he has to deal with Tripp and Chantel. Not exactly the most prestigious broadcasting partners...

Once again, I'd love to hear Forslund "off the clock". Ask what he thinks about the team, the organization, Tripp, etc when (in this hypothetical situation) there will be no consequences for him speaking what's really on his mind.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Jesus, the response was worse than I expected.

What? Because you got fact-checked?

http://www.nhl.com/scores/htmlreports/20122013/TH020482.HTM

His opening shift was 59 seconds...leading the team in the wrong direction right from the first shift.

Semin's was 54 seconds and Tlusty's was 1:01. McBain and Pitkanen were both 1:04.

Apply some common sense here. The line was out for a long shift; Staal wasn't just going rogue and skating around on his own agenda. IIRC, that first shift didn't go well for us and resulted in a defensive scramble.

 

[Anton Babchuk]

http://www.nhl.com/scores/htmlreports/20122013/TH020482.HTM

His opening shift was 59 seconds...leading the team in the wrong direction right from the first shift.

The play-by-play stats indicate that the Jets were in the Hurricanes' defensive zone at the 50 second mark (and likely before that, but I don't have access to actual video at this point). They took a shot from 10 feet out, indicating the play was down low. Was Staal supposed to skate off to the bench at that point to keep his shift length short enough?

 

[tarheelhockey]

The play-by-play stats indicate that the Jets were in the Hurricanes' defensive zone at the 50 second mark (and likely before that, but I don't have access to actual video at this point). They took a shot from 10 feet out, indicating the play was down low. Was Staal supposed to skate off to the bench at that point to keep his shift length short enough?

You know what's awesome? We don't even need the video.

http://www.nhl.com/scores/htmlreports/20122013/PL020482.HTM

0:16 - Semin slap shot, wide of net
0:21 - Ladd snap shot, over net
0:22 - Puck in netting <-- At this point Muller does not make a line change
0:28 - Byfuglien slap shot, wide of net
0:50 - Little shot, deflected
0:59 - End of Staal shift

Staal played... wait for it... 37 seconds after that faceoff.

 

[geehaad]

I had a long response typed out, but then it occurred to me to check the shift chart for the game: http://www.nhl.com/scores/htmlreports/20122013/TH020482.HTM

Staal had 12 shifts of 48 seconds or less (ie, within 10 seconds of a 38-second target), and 11 shifts of 49 seconds or more. Of the ones which were longer:
1) 2:26 - Drew a penalty, and then stayed out for 3/4ths of the ensuing power play
2) 1:52 - Double-shifted a power play
3) 1:49 - Double-shifted a power play
Take away those three PP double-shifts and his average shift was 0:41.5, or less than 4 seconds longer than his target average.

So would we not also toss out a 22-second shift to end the game, and a 14-second shift in the 3rd, shifts ended at 47 seconds and 54 second due to goals against, and a 24-second shift that was ended because the 1st period ended? There are others in there that probably also have extenuating circumstances.

But here's some good evidence:

1 1 0:00 / 20:00 0:59 / 19:01 00:59
2 1 3:04 / 16:56 5:30 / 14:30 02:26 P
3 1 7:42 / 12:18 8:45 / 11:15 01:03
4 1 10:05 / 9:55 10:46 / 9:14 00:41
5 1 13:13 / 6:47 13:44 / 6:16 00:31 G
6 1 14:10 / 5:50 14:48 / 5:12 00:38
7 1 16:48 / 3:12 17:32 / 2:28 00:44
8 1 19:36 / 0:24 20:00 / 0:00 00:24
9 2 0:00 / 20:00 0:59 / 19:01 00:59
10 2 4:08 / 15:52 4:48 / 15:12 00:40
11 2 7:13 / 12:47 7:33 / 12:27 00:20
12 2 8:06 / 11:54 8:38 / 11:22 00:32
13 2 11:08 / 8:52 11:31 / 8:29 00:23 GP
14 2 12:38 / 7:22 13:27 / 6:33 00:49
15 2 15:52 / 4:08 16:39 / 3:21 00:47 G
16 2 17:35 / 2:25 19:27 / 0:33 01:52
17 3 1:17 / 18:43 2:11 / 17:49 00:54
18 3 4:16 / 15:44 5:20 / 14:40 01:04
19 3 7:14 / 12:46 7:28 / 12:32 00:14
20 3 8:17 / 11:43 10:16 / 9:44 01:59
21 3 11:43 / 8:17 12:37 / 7:23 00:54 G
22 3 15:13 / 4:47 16:05 / 3:55 00:52
23 3 18:43 / 1:17 19:05 / 0:55 00:22

I would have to review the film to know for certain, but those look to be typical shifts...though one of them was a 48-second PK shift, but I don't know which one. That's 12 shifts averaging nearly 50 seconds per shift.

 

[tarheelhockey]

So would we not also toss out a 22-second shift to end the game, and a 14-second shift in the 3rd, shifts ended at 47 seconds and 54 second due to goals against, and a 24-second shift that was ended because the 1st period ended? There are others in there that probably also have extenuating circumstances.

I agree. We would need to sit down and review the game to figure it all out. We would also need to know exactly what Muller meant when he said "38-second shifts", whether he was really accounting for the same things we are. We would also need to know whether Muller consciously chose to deviate from that strategy as the game progressed.

There are a whole bunch of factors here that don't show up in that average-shift figure.

 

[Jerkob Slavin]

Brian LeBlanc ‏@bdleblanc 2m
Muller: “No excuses. That wasn’t our best game. It wasn’t our best performance by some individuals. I’m very surprised.â€

Brian LeBlanc ‏@bdleblanc 2m
Muller: “This is the playoffs now. Forget about it in a month. This is where you have to bring your A game. Some guys did but not enough.â€

Brian LeBlanc ‏@bdleblanc 1m
Muller: “I don’t care if we have our 8th goalie in the org playing. This is where your best players have to step up. We can be better.â€

Brian LeBlanc ‏@bdleblanc 51s
Muller: “I don’t care if you’re coming out of the ECHL, college, juniors: you work to your max. If you do, you get a certain result.â€

Brian LeBlanc ‏@bdleblanc 47s
Muller: “It’s all mindset. It’s like, get the - (pause where an expletive would have gone but he caught himself) - get the job done.â€

Forget the bickering about shifts. The above is very damning evidence, and it is straight from the coach. After a four day break, our team did not give max effort. Un-freaking-acceptable.

Staal "leads by example" and on too many occasions here recently that example is whining to the refs, flailing on the ice trying to sell calls, and turning the puck over with blind passes.

I am quite certain when Muller says his "best players need to step up" he is not referring to Char Larose...

 

[Anton Babchuk]

I think Kirk Muller needs to step up

 

[geehaad]

What I find interesting is that we are about 1 year removed from it being widely accepted that Staal is a lazy player, yet this year he scores more goals and suddenly that perception is wholly indefensible.

 

[Joe McGrath]

What I find interesting is that we are about 1 year removed from it being widely accepted that Staal is a lazy player, yet this year he scores more goals and suddenly that perception is wholly indefensible.

Sounds a lot like Semin...

Anyhooo, this has devolved to a state just as predictable as the Canes themselves.

 

[Anton Babchuk]

LaRose sucks

 

[Blueline Bomber]

What I find interesting is that we are about 1 year removed from it being widely accepted that Staal is a lazy player, yet this year he scores more goals and suddenly that perception is wholly indefensible.

It's because Staal's "good half" was in the first half the season this year rather than the latter half. So there was hope that, with it being a shortened season and with Staal starting the season "on", we'd have Staal's "good half" the entire season. Not to mention spending gobs of cash in the offseason to "make Staal happy".

Turns out, no matter how long the season, we're going to see Eric the Beast about half the time and Eric the Whiner for the rest. And while I think we've all accepted that this will happen, some have accepted and moved on while others have accepted, but still get pissed when it happens.

I fall into the latter.

 

[Datsyuk Prospect]

LaRose sucks

For 1.7M he sure does.

 

[geehaad]

I fall into the latter.

[sigh] Me too, brother.

 

[Finlandia WOAT]

LaRose sucks

Get off my man ******.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

What frustrates me about Staal the most, is that when things don't go well or he get's in a funk, he really struggles so badly to to get out of it, yet that's when the team needs him the most.