HFBoards TOP 50 Prospects Ranking #33 (closed)

[stl76]

So we’re going to discount an entire season of shl in favor of 7 games at the world juniors?

Huh? I was responding to another poster talking specifically about ASP’s play at the WJC.

My concerns about ASP are about his overall play and how it will translate to higher levels of competition…feel like I explained them pretty well but you are of course welcome to disagree.

 

[Pavels Dog]

How much of that 22 minutes was power play time? How many were PP points? ASP’s shot from the point on the power play has been effective against junior and SHL goalies…it’s really hard to score from distance in the NHL and I’m not sure ASP will be able to distribute the puck at a high enough level to earn PP1 minutes if his shot is not as effective at the next level.

Then he’s got to worry about playing solid enough defense as a 5’10 kid against NHLers to gain a coach’s trust to be counted on in a top 4 & PP1 quarterback role. He’s a good prospect, but I think he is being overrated a fair bit. I see quite a bit of risk with him.

A question; why are you trying to discount the fact that Pellikka plays PP? This is a massive strength of his game, not just something he gets handed. He's played both as a distributor (did it fantastically in the playoffs for example) and as a shooter. That's versatility - not a negative.

Like anything, it's questionable how much it will translate. He scored more goals than Peter Forsberg, Eriksson Ek, Kopitar, Dahlin, Kempe, Fiala, Zibanejad etc. did at that age.
Will he outscore all of them in the NHL? No. But you can't just shrug that off and say "it's harder in the NHL", because that goes for everything that every prospect does.

He also doesn't get sheltered at ES by any of his coaches at any level.

Here are some ES TOI/GP comparisons in the playoffs for 18 year old D lately:

Edvinsson - 19:42
Pellikka - 18:55
Dahlin - 17:18 (technically 17 year old season)
Brännström - 16:50
Bichsel - 15:55
Lundkvist - 15:20
Engström - 13:52
Salomonsson - 13:01
Pettersson - 2:10

Are we voting based on who is closest to the NHL right now or who we think will ultimately be a better player?

Whatever criteria you use should ideally be applied somewhat consistently. There is risk with ASP, but there's plenty of risk with Lindstein too. In The Athletic's rankings, ASP was 37th and Lindstein 94th. I can totally see someone being a bit lower on ASP and a bit higher on Lindstein, but I still think there's objectively a sizeable gap between the two.

 

[stl76]

A question; why are you trying to discount the fact that Pellikka plays PP? This is a massive strength of his game, not just something he gets handed. He's played both as a distributor (did it fantastically in the playoffs for example) and as a shooter. That's versatility - not a negative.

Like anything, it's questionable how much it will translate. He scored more goals than Peter Forsberg, Eriksson Ek, Kopitar, Dahlin, Kempe, Fiala, Zibanejad etc. did at that age.
Will he outscore all of them in the NHL? No. But you can't just shrug that off and say "it's harder in the NHL", because that goes for everything that every prospect does.

He also doesn't get sheltered at ES by any of his coaches at any level.

Here are some ES TOI/GP comparisons in the playoffs for 18 year old D lately:

Edvinsson - 19:42
Pellikka - 18:55
Dahlin - 17:18 (technically 17 year old season)
Brännström - 16:50
Bichsel - 15:55
Lundkvist - 15:20
Engström - 13:52
Salomonsson - 13:01
Pettersson - 2:10


Whatever criteria you use should ideally be applied somewhat consistently. There is risk with ASP, but there's plenty of risk with Lindstein too. In The Athletic's rankings, ASP was 37th and Lindstein 94th. I can totally see someone being a bit lower on ASP and a bit higher on Lindstein, but I still think there's objectively a sizeable gap between the two.

My concerned is not that ASP plays on the PP, it’s that such a large amount of his points come from scoring goals on the PP. You say he’s a good distributor on the PP, but frankly that does not match with my personal eye test or the counting stats I’ve seen. I thought he was OK passing the puck on the PP at the WJC, but nothing exceptional. What stood out was his PP goals, particularly his OT game winner against Switzerland. In the SHL, 7 of his 18 total points are power play goals. That’s a really high proportion and seems unsustainable. Being so reliant on shooting from the point on the PP concerns me, and it’s an important distinction when comparing him vs forwards.

As far as the claim that he is never sheltered at ES by any coaches at any level, that’s just clearly false. We can get into a semantic back and forth about what "sheltered" means, but the bottom line is that ASP played a much more offensive role at the WJC while the Lindstein & Willander generally took harder match ups. And if ASP wasn’t sheltered in the SHL then maybe he should have been given his team worst +/-.

My whole point is that ASP is being overrated and Lindstein underrated, so it’s not exactly shocking the Athletic has them ranked far apart…I’m not denying that fact, I’m saying they should not be. A smaller flashy offensive dman with good skating and a good shot has value, but it's a lot less than a lot of ASP fans seem to think IMO.

Feel free to bump this post in a few years if I'm wrong. But I'm pretty confident that Lindstein's good physical tools and elite brain/processing is going to translate into a very successful NHL career when all is said and done.