Player Discussion: Heinola Thread

[KingBogo]

perhaps in the past, but these days it seems like they peak younger. is stanley at 23-24 going to all of a sudden find offense? or become a stalwart defensively to regularly defend above a 3rd pair level?



edit - when i say peak i mean best year(s) come early on. not to say they are all of a sudden bad players as they age.

Big men usually take longer to grow into their bodies and Stanley is 23 and won't turn 24 until after the season. He has also only played 55 regular season games. Well less than a full season. He has also gone from sheltering to dominating his 3rd pairing matchups. Stanley is tops among all Jets defenseman in CF% at 53.78% and xGF% at 58.04%. If Heinola was making this quick of progress 55 games into his career this place would be all over themselves bragging about his potential.

 

[LowLefty]

perhaps in the past, but these days it seems like they peak younger. is stanley at 23-24 going to all of a sudden find offense? or become a stalwart defensively to regularly defend above a 3rd pair level?



edit - when i say peak i mean best year(s) come early on. not to say they are all of a sudden bad players as they age.

I honestly don't know -
But I think he will get better before he starts to fall off - he strikes me as a late bloomer and hopefully that carries into his later 20's.
His offense isn't bad considering he is third pairing with very little OT - there is some offense in his game but that wouldn't be how I measured his effectiveness now or in the future.

 

[LowLefty]

I think your last part is a bit of a myth. They don't tend to peak any later then forwards, ditto with goalies. I think it just seems that way as there are less defensive positions in hockey and it can take longer to break into an NHL spot due to more roster scarcity.

You could be right on this - I really don't know.
I seems that way when you look at lineups and the strength of their D - but that could be a bias of mine.

 

[jefferoni]

Ville back in the bigs...

 

[surixon]

Ville back in the bigs...

Hopefully he actually plays and doesn't just eat popcorn so that Beau can play.

 

[JetsWillFly4Ever]

Will be nice for him to get a paycheque for a couple games before going back to the A.

 

[DRW204]

 

[BoneDocUK]

Meh. He's no Nate Beaulieu.

It would have been nice to see him get a shot. Hopefully at some point this season.

Is this the first year under PoMo that we haven't integrated a single rookie into the lineup? Maybe Gus will put that to rights.

 

[surixon]

Meh. He's no Nate Beaulieu.

It would have been nice to see him get a shot. Hopefully at some point this season.

Is this the first year under PoMo that we haven't integrated a single rookie into the lineup? Maybe Gus will put that to rights.

Yeah and it's not surprising, Moe is in pure win mode and when he gets into that mode he has specific habits he defaults to.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Yeah and it's not surprising, Moe is in pure win mode to get a new contract and that means him running either his vets.

Which means it’s a perfect season to not make the playoffs.

 

[DRW204]

Meh. He's no Nate Beaulieu.

It would have been nice to see him get a shot. Hopefully at some point this season.

Is this the first year under PoMo that we haven't integrated a single rookie into the lineup? Maybe Gus will put that to rights.

iirc, niku was all pp points driven and not so much at EV comparatively....im not sure of his on-ice shot/chance/goal share stats in comparison either. but heinola i think is at the point where he's to good for the AHL and needs to have NHL mins to progress, see what works, what doesn't etc.

 

[surixon]

iirc, niku was all pp points driven and not so much at EV comparatively....im not sure of his on-ice shot/chance/goal share stats in comparison either. but heinola i think is at the point where he's to good for the AHL and needs to have NHL mins to progress, see what works, what doesn't etc.

Yup he needs to be up in some capacity as he's ready. We could have used his puck moving somewhere in our bottom 4 the last few games.

 

[DRW204]

Yup he needs to be up in some capacity as he's ready. We could have used his puck moving somewhere in our bottom 4 the last few games.

another thing when down in games, morrissey-schmidt are basically the only pair to generate some offense or quick puck moving.

 

[surixon]

another thing when down in games, morrissey-schmidt are basically the only pair to generate some offense or quick puck moving.

Yup. We need balance on each of our pairings and we only have that on our top pairing atm with Pionk out.

 

[Jet]

Yeah and it's not surprising, Moe is in pure win mode to get a new contract and that means him running either his vets.

Yeah, I'm sure he doesn't just want to win. It's all about contract.

Seriously. I respect you as a poster and agree with a lot of your posts but framing it this way is kinda gross.

Maybe he just wants to win like everyone else and realizes the Jets window is now. I'm not excusing his decision making but to make it so selfish to me is trying to demonize him with no real evidence.

People hate him enough around here. Why pile on?

 

[surixon]

Yeah, I'm sure he doesn't just want to win. It's all about contract.

Seriously. I respect you as a poster and agree with a lot of your posts but framing it this way is kinda gross.

Maybe he just wants to win like everyone else and realizes the Jets window is now. I'm not excusing his decision making but to make it so selfish to me is trying to demonize him with no real evidence.

People hate him enough around here. Why pile on?

I didn't mean it in a way that was meant to demonize him.

I just think that because it's put up or shut up time based on the roster and based on his contract not being renewed as of yet that he is being allowed to do it his way this season and his way based on his history is to go all in with his guys and vets.

I think that it's fair, the org has given him the tools and letting him succeed or failure in a manner that he wants to.

Maybe I worded it bad but that is my take on how he's being allowed to coach and the reasons for it. As always I'm more then happy to see him prove me wrong.

Edit:

After reading my post again, you are correct that came out as not very good on my part. Thanks for brining it to my attention.

 

[Gabe Kupari]

After almost 8 seasons of Maurice I'm curious if those who seem to think he's immune to criticism wants to win

Window? It's barely open with Maurice still.

 

[snowkiddin]

I didn't mean it in a way that was meant to demonize him.

I just think that because it's put up or shut up time based on the roster and based on his contract not being renewed as of yet that he is being allowed to do it his way this season and his way based on his history is to go all in with his guys and vets.

I think that it's fair, the org has given him the tools and letting him succeed or failure in a manner that he wants to.

Maybe I worded it bad but that is my take on how he's being allowed to coach and the reasons for it. As always I'm more then happy to see him prove me wrong.

Edit:

After reading my post again, you are correct that came out as not very good on my part. Thanks for brining it to my attention.

I just think Moe has trust issues with young players. That’s why he defaults to vets. Maybe that’s kinda what you’re saying, and I would agree if that’s the case. I don’t think it’s gross to share that opinion.

 

[surixon]

I just think Moe has trust issues with young players. That’s why he defaults to vets. Maybe that’s kinda what you’re saying, and I would agree if that’s the case. I don’t think it’s gross to share that opinion.

I changed my post. I kind of insinuated that Moe is coaching for his job so he's going all in on his vets. While I think him not having a contract definitely adds to the pressure this year I shouldn't have made it all about the contract when it's more just how he prefers to operate if allowed.

I think your right though that if left to his own devices he will default to vets over kids as I agree he has some issues trusting kids unless directed to by management.

We've really only integrated one bottom pairing dmen and a couple of fourth line forwards the last 3 years here since we have started trying to compete. Most other contenders are still integrating elite young talent into key positions in that period.

 

[snowkiddin]

I changed my post. I kind of insinuated that Moe is coaching for his job so he's going all in on his vets.

I think your right if though that if left to his own devices he will default to vets over kids as I agree he has some issues trusting kids unless directed to by management.

We've really only implemented one bottom pairing dmen and a couple of fourth line forwards the last 3 years here since we have started trying to compete. Most other contenders are still integrating elite young talent into key positions in that period.

Yeah, and you almost need to integrate young guys on ELCs just from a cap perspective.

I get going vet heavy this year but I still don’t get how Gus hasn’t had a shot, especially after Nash flamed out. He looks more than ready now.

 

[surixon]

Yeah, and you almost need to integrate young guys on ELCs just from a cap perspective.

I get going vet heavy this year but I still don’t get how Gus hasn’t had a shot, especially after Nash flamed out. He looks more than ready now.

Yeah he's ready and so are Ville and arguably Cole.

We can use a lot of what each player brings on our team.

 

[voyageur]

After almost 8 seasons of Maurice I'm curious if those who seem to think he's immune to criticism wants to win

Window? It's barely open with Maurice still.

I'd say that window was broken when Big Buff quit. Jets went from a high tempo, high pressure defensive team, to one that became passive to protect its lack of talent on defense, in one off season. Last year was a very good rally, to beat the Oilers, but honestly the NHL does not want us in the Final Four, it's not good for the NHL brand. You have to upset everyone to get there. And the odds are not favourable, let's say.

This is a good team, but there are other teams that are growing and developing as fast as the Jets, maybe moreso because they haven't been trading picks as frequently, or having players want out with regularity.

I think this year is the end of the veteran teams. I expect a lot of younger talent to join the team next year, and probably True North doesn't make the same investment to the Cap ceiling again. Will that constitute a rebuild? Young players are by no means guaranteed success. But they can change a tired looking team into a fast paced one in a hurry.

 

[BoneDocUK]

I'd say that window was broken when Big Buff quit. Jets went from a high tempo, high pressure defensive team, to one that became passive to protect its lack of talent on defense, in one off season. Last year was a very good rally, to beat the Oilers, but honestly the NHL does not want us in the Final Four, it's not good for the NHL brand. You have to upset everyone to get there. And the odds are not favourable, let's say.

This is a good team, but there are other teams that are growing and developing as fast as the Jets, maybe moreso because they haven't been trading picks as frequently, or having players want out with regularity.

I think this year is the end of the veteran teams. I expect a lot of younger talent to join the team next year, and probably True North doesn't make the same investment to the Cap ceiling again. Will that constitute a rebuild? Young players are by no means guaranteed success. But they can change a tired looking team into a fast paced one in a hurry.

I like your optimism, but I think that works only if we have someone else behind the bench or there is a very strict mandate in place to play the youth.

I think it's also important to note the knock-on effect of NOT plying youth when they're ready. Last year our d corps was historically terrible. It would have made little difference to have integrated Heinola into more games given his likely minimal - impact and possible + impact on those games -- in fact, we saw that with Stanley, who was so heavily sheltered that he played virtually no minutes in close or trailing game states. So, platoon Stanley and Heinola, and then you have 2 younger D who now ready to come in and contribute this season, instead of dragging Beaulieu back into the lineup or spending big on a slightly better Stanley in Dillon (I know, cap constraints and we didn't know Schmidt would sign, but these are all examples).

Or being up Gus for his max last season and give Nate T/ Trevor L a break, and see what you have. Or, watch Gus's TC and preseason this year and then, like any causal fan realize that he's ready and you don't need Riley Nash, and that even if there are injuries you can bring up Reichel or Mallot or a pot plant you bought at Safeway's to play 3:59 on the 4th.

The point is that every season where a prospect is stagnating in the minors that prospect is not developing at the speed they might -- Cole Perfetti is a textbook case, a player who, given the chance to play in the A in his D+1, learned the speed and physicality of the game there and by the end of the season was absolutely dominating. This year would be different, we were told -- more teams, a quicker pace and higher skill levels -- and there he is, dominating again.

I think Heinola and Gus are in that same boat. Both are too good for the A -- Heinola is at the top of the league in key metrics, Gus is one of three pivot players on the Moose (along with Heinola and Cole P) through which everything moves. He is a physical presence. He is a very smart player. He distributes the puck well and is superb defensively. His game is basically error-free -- I've watch all but one Moose game this year and I think I've seen one maybe turnover. He plays a strong puck-support game. He is a high-level PKer. He has earned the coaches' trust sufficiently to merit a letter. How much trust does he have to earn on a team with a PK as bad as the Jets?

Ville is a high-level offensive D. He is less convincing in some areas on D, but he sire as hell isn't bad at it. In fact, some of the things he can do, like puck retrieval and quick transition, puck distribution and intelligent passing, he already does better than 2-3 of the current Jets D. And he has an incredible hockey mind, and is a very, very quick learner. He is an ace on the PP and an excellent PKer, who regularly picks off pucks and is almost never in the wrong spot. But can he clear the net? you ask. Have you watched our current D trying to clear the net? I respond.

So yeah, trust, and maybe next year. But if we wait until then, there's not only Heinola and Gus and Cole P bit also maybe Samberg and Kovacevic and even Chisholm knocking at the door, and maybe others, and if you think Maurice is going to add 3, 4 or 5 rookies to any team he coaches, you're dreaming. if you want to keep a team going you're always replenishing the cupboards and then opening those cupboards up to restock the team, always with the cap in mind. There should never be a generation gap on a well-managed team, just a smooth progression of talent. I honestly think that this transition has been frustrated in recent years for the Jets.

I've said a dozen times here, as have others, that just "ripening" prospects in the A is not always the best dev plan, just as ripening any fruit or veg indefinitely isn't -- at time point, rot is going to set in, and you're no longer developing, you're just wasting everyone's time.

The trust problem on the Jets isn't a young player problem, it's a Maurice problem. And the only way it isn't a big problem is if you trust Maurice as an evaluator and developer of talent -- not only blue-chip but regular useful talent too, and you trust his roster and lineup choices.

I guess at this point I don't. Bring on the Gus Bus and Heinola Motorola, say I.

 

[Potrzebie]

I like your optimism, but I think that works only if we have someone else behind the bench or there is a very strict mandate in place to play the youth.

I think it's also important to note the knock-on effect of NOT plying youth when they're ready. Last year our d corps was historically terrible. It would have made little difference to have integrated Heinola into more games given his likely minimal - impact and possible + impact on those games -- in fact, we saw that with Stanley, who was so heavily sheltered that he played virtually no minutes in close or trailing game states. So, platoon Stanley and Heinola, and then you have 2 younger D who now ready to come in and contribute this season, instead of dragging Beaulieu back into the lineup or spending big on a slightly better Stanley in Dillon (I know, cap constraints and we didn't know Schmidt would sign, but these are all examples).

Or being up Gus for his max last season and give Nate T/ Trevor L a break, and see what you have. Or, watch Gus's TC and preseason this year and then, like any causal fan realize that he's ready and you don't need Riley Nash, and that even if there are injuries you can bring up Reichel or Mallot or a pot plant you bought at Safeway's to play 3:59 on the 4th.

The point is that every season where a prospect is stagnating in the minors that prospect is not developing at the speed they might -- Cole Perfetti is a textbook case, a player who, given the chance to play in the A in his D+1, learned the speed and physicality of the game there and by the end of the season was absolutely dominating. This year would be different, we were told -- more teams, a quicker pace and higher skill levels -- and there he is, dominating again.

I think Heinola and Gus are in that same boat. Both are too good for the A -- Heinola is at the top of the league in key metrics, Gus is one of three pivot players on the Moose (along with Heinola and Cole P) through which everything moves. He is a physical presence. He is a very smart player. He distributes the puck well and is superb defensively. His game is basically error-free -- I've watch all but one Moose game this year and I think I've seen one maybe turnover. He plays a strong puck-support game. He is a high-level PKer. He has earned the coaches' trust sufficiently to merit a letter. How much trust does he have to earn on a team with a PK as bad as the Jets?

Ville is a high-level offensive D. He is less convincing in some areas on D, but he sire as hell isn't bad at it. In fact, some of the things he can do, like puck retrieval and quick transition, puck distribution and intelligent passing, he already does better than 2-3 of the current Jets D. And he has an incredible hockey mind, and is a very, very quick learner. He is an ace on the PP and an excellent PKer, who regularly picks off pucks and is almost never in the wrong spot. But can he clear the net? you ask. Have you watched our current D trying to clear the net? I respond.

So yeah, trust, and maybe next year. But if we wait until then, there's not only Heinola and Gus and Cole P bit also maybe Samberg and Kovacevic and even Chisholm knocking at the door, and maybe others, and if you think Maurice is going to add 3, 4 or 5 rookies to any team he coaches, you're dreaming. if you want to keep a team going you're always replenishing the cupboards and then opening those cupboards up to restock the team, always with the cap in mind. There should never be a generation gap on a well-managed team, just a smooth progression of talent. I honestly think that this transition has been frustrated in recent years for the Jets.

I've said a dozen times here, as have others, that just "ripening" prospects in the A is not always the best dev plan, just as ripening any fruit or veg indefinitely isn't -- at time point, rot is going to set in, and you're no longer developing, you're just wasting everyone's time.

The trust problem on the Jets isn't a young player problem, it's a Maurice problem. And the only way it isn't a big problem is if you trust Maurice as an evaluator and developer of talent -- not only blue-chip but regular useful talent too, and you trust his roster and lineup choices.

I guess at this point I don't. Bring on the Gus Bus and Heinola Motorola, say I.

Ville may be too good for the A, but he sure didn't look good enough for the NHL in his preseason games.

And I'm a big Ville fan. I think he will do big things.

 

[FonRiesen]

I like your optimism, but I think that works only if we have someone else behind the bench or there is a very strict mandate in place to play the youth.

<snipped lots of good stuff>

So yeah, trust, and maybe next year. But if we wait until then, there's not only Heinola and Gus and Cole P bit also maybe Samberg and Kovacevic and even Chisholm knocking at the door, and maybe others, and if you think Maurice is going to add 3, 4 or 5 rookies to any team he coaches, you're dreaming. if you want to keep a team going you're always replenishing the cupboards and then opening those cupboards up to restock the team, always with the cap in mind. There should never be a generation gap on a well-managed team, just a smooth progression of talent. I honestly think that this transition has been frustrated in recent years for the Jets.

I've said a dozen times here, as have others, that just "ripening" prospects in the A is not always the best dev plan, just as ripening any fruit or veg indefinitely isn't -- at time point, rot is going to set in, and you're no longer developing, you're just wasting everyone's time.

The trust problem on the Jets isn't a young player problem, it's a Maurice problem. And the only way it isn't a big problem is if you trust Maurice as an evaluator and developer of talent -- not only blue-chip but regular useful talent too, and you trust his roster and lineup choices.

I guess at this point I don't. Bring on the Gus Bus and Heinola Motorola, say I.

Great post. I agree completely. We won't necessarily have grade A prospects joining every single year (due to variations at the draft/different speeds of development), so there are some real judgment calls to make.

For those not interested in cognitive function analysis, don't bother reading ahead, but my career involves personality profiling/analysis (with several hundred hours of advanced training), and this is what I see for Maurice:

Maurice's strength (like many former players) is being present and observational in the moment (and using adrenaline to perform). I think that's pretty obvious from how he coaches, and the multitude of interviews he's given over the years.

Because of this, there is an opportunity cost in regards to his ability to project long-term (beyond a few days), because he's better at improvising in the moment. You can bet he doesn't do much prep for 95% of his interviews because he can wing it, and if he sticks his foot in his mouth he knows how to recover better than people who are strong at the opposite cognitive function (the ones who are constantly looking ahead, simulating out scenarios days to years in advance). It will be rare to see him not improvise at least a little - that's what makes him so engaging, and I bet that live he's even cooler to listen to because he's responding to what his audience is giving him.

This genius part of him also means he's very poor at the opposite - simulating the future long-term, and narrowing down possible emergents to their most likely outcome. That includes evaluating when to add a rookie, or how to add them so that they're ready before the playoffs, and so he evaluates the NOW only (and there's also an element of doubling down at thinking he's right because he struggles to shift to others' perspectives - but he does have a compassionate side - different parts of the brain - that helps him reflect and get beyond the present and pursue his values, but that part still isn't about projection/simulation). He also struggles to know when vets are done, because he's seeing all the good things they do, and he doesn't have to worry about what they *might* do (future-pacing again, his weak spot) - he knows what they'll do wrong but he can expect it so it feels safer. He's great at picking up on how everyone contributes to mood and culture, but struggles to see how that will end up contributing to final results. Because to him (and others of his type) it will feel like "just guessing". Meanwhile, there are other personalities who are excellent at projecting likely outcomes and are very accurate and reliable at seeing trajectories.

All of this isn't a death knell for Maurice as a coach: if he stuck to being behind the bench and behind the mic as an inspirational leader and culture setter, and didn't have the final say on any strategic decisions, he'd make a great coach.

But he needs someone to cover for his weak spots (and those people typically are terrible at relating to people, being inspiring, or noticing things in the moment). Together they'd be a great team - they make strategic decisions, he can just communicate it and be the Face.

That's his pathway to success but he's got it in his head that he needs to micromanage/make the call, be the Man, and then we see him get lost it the moment and constantly run imbalanced lines. He's never intending to only give Svech 4 minutes or Schief 25+, it honestly gets away from him. And then when he gets away with a win despite it (because he oversimplified cause & effect, not seeing that there's a complex system running that has thousands of variables, some uncontrollable), he thinks that maybe that might have contributed to the odds of winning. And maybe it did for that one game, but he doesn't see that if you do it over and over guys like Schief & Wheels start running out of gas or they modify their game to avoid running out of gas.

Anyway, sorry for the long explanation. There is a lot of extrapolation in there, but it's always surprising how accurate my extrapolations are with my clients.

I like Mau, I think he is elite at certain important aspects of coaching, but right now we have no one covering his weak spots effectively, and from what I see that's on Maurice's ego to have to make final calls. Just like one of my former bosses (same personality type) he needs to not allow himself to make certain decisions at all, and give full responsibility to another coach who is elite at futurepacing and analyzing long term implications.

Edit: dang, I did it again - this is not the coaching thread. In regards to Heinola, he was ready last year, but Maurice couldn't see beyond the 'current game'. He'd have been far better than Beaulieu/Poolman and Stanley by year's end. And Stanley would would also been better than the other two with a full year behind him. We might have lost a couple more games during the early part of the season due to their rookie mistakes, but short term pain for long term gain...