Value of: Hawks trading down from #2 to at worst the #7

HuGort

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Apparently not a ton of consensus in this #2-7 range with many of these picks having their specific pro's and con's. Hypothetically if Kyle Davidson wouldn't want Demidov, what would Anaheim, Columbus, Montreal, Utah, and Ottawa give up for the #2 pick? This likely doesn't happen as we rarely see teams move up or down this early in NHL drafts, but this particular draft at least leaves room open for discussion.

Only stipulation is the trade would at the very least involve a swap of 1st rounders this draft i.e. a trade with CBJ would be the #2 for #4 +++
Habs might be interested. But not going to grossly overpay. We Going to get good player at 5. I wouldn't do it but good chance Hughes would give up Jets pick. Most I would offer is Harris or Barron to switch picks.

I would keep Jets pick in case Hage or Beaudoin is there.
 

Mrfenn92

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Habs might be interested. But not going to grossly overpay. We Going to get good player at 5. I wouldn't do it but good chance Hughes would give up Jets pick. Most I would offer is Harris or Barron to switch picks.

I would keep Jets pick in case Hage or Beaudoin is there.
No issue with you not wanting to give up the jets pick but for the hawks neither Barron nor Harris is worth switching from 2 to 5.
 

Habs Halifax

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If they like Demidov, I imagine they do.

The excuse/reason/whatever the Habs didn't draft Michkov was because they couldn't watch him. They've apparently been able to watch Demidov.

When asked if anyone has separated themselves from the pack after Celebrini, Hughes made it his job to say no one has.

They seem to really like Demidov, but is it that much more than Lindstrom, Iginla, Catton, Sennecke ? That, we don't know.

I think the Habs not taking Michkov was deeper than not being able to watch him play.
 

bleedgreen

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There is a whole lot of consensus this year. You wont see a Simashev at 6. Top 3 forwards and top 5 d are pretty much same according to Mckenzie. If you want to secure a top 5 forward, you need to be 3rd or 4th.
We’re not talking about a Simishev, we’re talking about the top six. The op is talking about dropping down from 2-6, and the order is very much up in the air. Everyone is going to say they got the guy they had at number two in that group, and they may not be lying. Mackenzie’s article is named “an unpredictable ride after Celebrini”. I think my statement stands.
 
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HuGort

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No issue with you not wanting to give up the jets pick but for the hawks neither Barron nor Harris is worth switching from 2 to 5.
I just don't see enough difference between Demidov and Lindstrom to give up another first.

Hughes may package Struble with Jets pick to move up in top 13. If Catton slides. Or Helenius, Ignila, etc... if Sennecke goes top 10, one of them should slide.

Myself, If we get Lindstrom I would keep Jets pick. Lindstrom and Dach makes good 2nd line. Habs have 25 million caproom coming off books in summer '25. Target a top UFA play on Dach line. Newhook play on that line in meantime.

Jets pick Beaudoin going to be good 3rd liner. I like a good third line. Size, energy and robust also can score a few goals. We have one piece in Beck.
 

Mrfenn92

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I just don't see enough difference between Demidov and Lindstrom to give up another first.

Hughes may package Struble with Jets pick to move up in top 13. If Catton slides. Or Helenius, Ignila, etc... if Sennecke goes top 10, one of them should slide.

Myself, If we get Lindstrom I would keep Jets pick. Lindstrom and Dach makes good 2nd line. Habs have 25 million caproom coming off books in summer '25. Target a top UFA play on Dach line. Newhook play on that line in meantime.

Jets pick Beaudoin going to be good 3rd liner. I like a good third line. Size, energy and robust also can score a few goals. We have one piece in Beck.
I understand that completely. Was just saying from the hawks perspective
 

Habs Halifax

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No issue with you not wanting to give up the jets pick but for the hawks neither Barron nor Harris is worth switching from 2 to 5.

Fair. Difference between Harris and Barron is this.

Harris has shown maturity quickly after turning pro. I think he will be a well rounded 3rd paring guy. Not small or big but does a lot of things well and has good IQ.

Barron has struggled in the maturity area but he has that size/shot/skating package. If he figures out the maturity, he has top 4RD in him IMO. Lots of guys like this become good in the age 25-30 range. I'm not desperate to move him to be honest

Don't like either, that is fair. Not sure if the Habs would offer the Jets 1st. Maybe we can look at someone like Mesar... a former late 1st who has good development. Not a goal scoring type winger and more like a play maker with very good speed/skating. His international tournament numbers are very solid as well. I would say he might be a good middle 6F depending on fit.

Between the 3, I would rank them like this. Barron, Mesar, Harris.
 

Mrfenn92

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Fair. Difference between Harris and Barron is this.

Harris has shown maturity quickly after turning pro. I think he will be a well rounded 3rd paring guy. Not small or big but does a lot of things well and has good IQ.

Barron has struggled in the maturity area but he has that size/shot/skating package. If he figures out the maturity, he has top 4RD in him IMO. Lots of guys like this become good in the age 25-30 range. I'm not desperate to move him to be honest

Don't like either, that is fair. Not sure if the Habs would offer the Jets 1st. Maybe we can look at someone like Mesar... a former late 1st who has good development. Not a goal scoring type winger and more like a play maker with very good speed/skating. His international tournament numbers are very solid as well. I would say he might be a good middle 6F depending on fit.

Between the 3, I would rank them like this. Barron, Mesar, Harris.
I get that we have plenty of young dmen for ourselves that are needing spots and opportunity. Mesar is interesting admittedly.
Really just don’t see a fit but I could be wrong.
 

Habs Halifax

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I get that we have plenty of young dmen for ourselves that are needing spots and opportunity. Mesar is interesting admittedly.
Really just don’t see a fit but I could be wrong.

It will be interesting to see who trades down and who trades up. Incentives to do it and how deep are they.

If the Habs do offer the Jets 1st, I hope they got a good read on Demidov. 5'-11 and 168 lbs with not much international tournament evaluation to look at. I get the hype and I kind of believe it myself but I do wonder.
 

CanadienShark

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I thought Demidov had emerged as a pretty consensus #2 pick and if anything was pushing to compete with Macklin for #1 more-so than competing with anyone for #3-7.

Hawks should even kick the tires and see if San Jose like Demidov enough to move up and pair Celebrini with Bedard rather than to move down.
Say what!?!

You think you're getting our future #1C? No way. No chance.

Only way you get Celebrini, is if Bedard is coming back the other way, which of course you wouldn't do.
 

Mrfenn92

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It will be interesting to see who trades down and who trades up. Incentives to do it and how deep are they.

If the Habs do offer the Jets 1st, I hope they got a good read on Demidov. 5'-11 and 168 lbs with not much international tournament evaluation to look at. I get the hype and I kind of believe it myself but I do wonder.
After celebrini it’s lots of question marks no doubt. That’s why I don’t see lots of trades happening up or down. Like most NHL drafts just take your guy and move on.
 
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HFpapi

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Say what!?!

You think you're getting our future #1C? No way. No chance.

Only way you get Celebrini, is if Bedard is coming back the other way, which of course you wouldn't do.
1) "I" don't think I'm getting anything. What about my location makes you think I'm a Blackhawks fan?

2) I wasn't really proposing this trade in any serious way. My original point was simply to say that I think Demidov has emerged as much of a consensus #2 pick as Celebrini is #1. Therefore, I'm disagreeing with the premise of Chicago seeing picks 2-7 as interchangeable.

I simply tried to drive this point home by saying "if anything Demidov is closer to Celebrini than #3 so Chicago should be looking up before they are looking down the draft rankings." I know of course the Sharks wouldn't entertain it.

3) If the Sharks did entertain it, (they won't), enough experts are high enough on Demidov that I wouldn't be surprised at all if Demidov + Nazar for #1 ended up being a great trade in hindsight if it actually happened.
 
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waitin425

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Lot's of Habs proposals in here. Ill add to it.

Ill trade...

#5 + Jets 1st + Mesar + Hawks choice of Barron/Harris/Struble/Engstrom/Konyushkov
 

frightenedinmatenum2

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Not a ton of consensus doesn't mean teams will trade down, because there is no guarantee that their guy will be there later on. Just because there isn't consensus doesn't mean Chicago won't have someone at #2 who they like a lot more than what they would get at 7, either because they feel they are a much better prospect, or because they want to address a specific position of need that won't be there at #7.

We could maybe see a trade down if there are a string of players who fit the same need and all have similar value, like 3-4 defenseman, but then we get to a point a few picks in where maybe the last center is available on the board. That's the kind of scenario where if a team wants a D, they might accept a premium to move down 3-4 spots, because they know mathematically that they are still guaranteed one of the D.

If you look historically at teams going off the board in the top 5, fans always scream that they should have traded down. They don't understand that if a team views Thomas Hickey, Jake Sanderson, Jesperi Kotkaniemi, or Moritz Seider as the best player available in the top 5, the risk of losing out on a top 5 talent isn't worth trading down. There is never a guarantee they will be there later. In most of those cases, they probably wouldn't be - but fans because they don't scout the players only view things in generalities and think "that guy was 15th on Bob's list, they are dumb for not getting an extra 2nd rounder!". Trading down is nearly impossible to do if a team has eyes on a specific player, or on a specific need that there aren't multiples of.
 

CanadienShark

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1) "I" don't think I'm getting anything. What about my location makes you think I'm a Blackhawks fan?

2) I wasn't really proposing this trade in any serious way. My original point was simply to say that I think Demidov has emerged as much of a consensus #2 pick as Celebrini is #1. Therefore, I'm disagreeing with the premise of Chicago seeing picks 2-7 as interchangeable.

I simply tried to drive this point home by saying "if anything Demidov is closer to Celebrini than #3 so Chicago should be looking up before they are looking down the draft rankings." I know of course the Sharks wouldn't entertain it.

3) If the Sharks did entertain it, (they won't), enough experts are high enough on Demidov that I wouldn't be surprised at all if Demidov + Nazar for #1 ended up being a great trade in hindsight if it actually happened.
1. Why does location have anything to do with the team you cheer for? I've never been to SJ in my life.

2. Then why even propose the idea if you know SJ wouldn't? It's a stupid idea and a non-starter plain and simple.

3. I doubt it.
 

HFpapi

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1. Why does location have anything to do with the team you cheer for? I've never been to SJ in my life.
Aside from being the reason probably 98% of fans cheer for the teams that they do? You're the exception, not the rule.

There was no reason to assume I'm a Blackhawks fan simply because I talked about the Blackhawks in a thread specifically dedicated to the Blackhawks.
 

CanadienShark

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Aside from being the reason probably 98% of fans cheer for the teams that they do? You're the exception, not the rule.

There was no reason to assume I'm a Blackhawks fan simply because I talked about the Blackhawks in a thread specifically dedicated to the Blackhawks.
Have you been to Canada before? :laugh:
 

Beukeboom Fan

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It’s enough for a lot of the fans including me in this draft but as the poster above you said, davidson was elated to have #2 so he must have his eye on someone at 2. I don’t think we are moving down and I think that means Demidov. Hawks could use an elite winger badly in the system. I kind of prefer a RHD and there are a couple available at 5 I consider nearly equal.
I wouldn't put too much on what Davidson says at the lottery. He said what was necessary to avoid reducing the value of the pick if he wants the option to move it over the next 6 weeks.
Unless the add isn't significant (ie value of about a 2nd rder), I dont think any team will.move up.

Levshunov
Demidov
Lindstrom
Catton
Iginla
Simayev
Dickinson

All have similar upside.

Teams.will draft the BPA unless the price to move up to get their guy isn't too high
The point that I would make is that "our" perception is that those players are roughly equivalent. Most of the boards perceptions are based on concensus, whereas the individuals scouting staffs (who have seen the ALL of these players much more than even the most enthusiastic amateur) can have wildly different opinions on players which impact who the team's draft. This can result in guys being taken from "off the board" or guys falling based on their specific evaluations.


Overall - I think that moving down in the draft is incredibly risky in today's NHL. The world has gotten a lot "smaller", with fans a having access to more information. If a GM decides to move down, he's forever going to be evaluated on the player selected in the original spot, compared to both the player they ended up with, and the "sweetner" in the deal. That sweetner, if he actually develops into a NHL'er, is unlikely to contribute in any reasonable period (likely at least 3-4 years). There is just a lot of immediate downside vs. relatively limited upside from the GM's perspective. They're typically better off just saying "We had this player evaluated as the BPA and we were very excited he was available!"
 

CanadienShark

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Don't wanna derail the thread because we are way off topic and completely in the weeds here but you're denying there's a strong link between geography and fandom? Seems like a losing argument.
Ugh. Any city in Canada is full of fans of many different teams than the "hometown" team. Let's leave it there, because this is a pointless discussion.
 

Captain Mountain

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McKenzie wrote in his last ranking that "[t]he lack of clear consensus beyond Celebrini — from No. 2 through to No. 10 and beyond — would be unprecedented. I’ve been doing draft rankings like this one for more than 35 years, and I don’t recall a year where the Top 10 is such a hodgepodge of opinion."

Obviously 2nd OA is worth more than 3rd to 7th, but specifically the teams 3rd to 7th are probably as likely to trade down as up, so I'm not sure the returns would be all that great.
 

Habs Halifax

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After celebrini it’s lots of question marks no doubt. That’s why I don’t see lots of trades happening up or down. Like most NHL drafts just take your guy and move on.

I see it differently after Celebrini. BPA is all over the place from 2-10+ but that will vary from each team's draft board. Some teams will have a absolute BPA while others will not. For that reason, I do see some trades.
 

Rockomax

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I just don't see enough difference between Demidov and Lindstrom to give up another first.

Hughes may package Struble with Jets pick to move up in top 13. If Catton slides. Or Helenius, Ignila, etc... if Sennecke goes top 10, one of them should slide.

Myself, If we get Lindstrom I would keep Jets pick. Lindstrom and Dach makes good 2nd line. Habs have 25 million caproom coming off books in summer '25. Target a top UFA play on Dach line. Newhook play on that line in meantime.

Jets pick Beaudoin going to be good 3rd liner. I like a good third line. Size, energy and robust also can score a few goals. We have one piece in Beck.
Demidov and Lindstrom might be gone at 5 though. I do believe that the likeliest scenario is

SJS - Celebrini
CHI - Demidov
ANA - Levshunov
CBJ - Lindstrom
 

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