GDT: Hawks @ Oilers 9pm ChSn 10/13/24

[statswatcher]

The problem with using it... you might have 15 guys get votes one year, then only 5 of those same guys get votes the next, and 10-12 different D end up with the rest of the votes the next year.

don't see that this is a problem. no reason to think the same guys will perform at a 1D level every year. in fact you'd expect the opposite, unless you want to say bobby orr is still a 1D in the nhl today from beyond the grave or something. maybe some bruins fans would want to say that, what do i know?

 

[Mrfenn92]

don't see that this is a problem. no reason to think the same guys will perform at a 1D level every year. in fact you'd expect the opposite, unless you want to say bobby orr is still a 1D in the nhl today from beyond the grave or something. maybe some bruins fans would want to say that, what do i know?

He’s still alive

 

[belfour30]

A#1 D needs to be either elite offensively and OK defensively or OK offensively, but elite on D. Imo. A guy who can either carry an offense, while being able to play crucial mins defensively, or completely shut down the other team on D, while providing solid offense.

I personally haven't seen Jones be either of those things since he has been here. Too many defensive mistakes, and not nearly enough offensive for someone who hasn't been a shutdown guy.

Jones absolutely has been a shutdown guy since being traded to the Hawks and the numbers back it up.
He's in the 90th percentile+of defenders in the NHL.

 

[statswatcher]

He’s still alive

ah well, can't win them all. check back in a few years i guess.

 

[Crow]

I don’t believe agreeing on a definition is necessary, as long as people are clear what they themselves mean when they use the term.

Would rather people stop saying 1D, 1C entirely and just say top 30 or whatever for ease and clarity.

 

[Pez68]

I love these pointless semantics arguments. Especially when we've had them before. Lol

 

[Toews2Bickell]

The two things in this sentence are polar opposites. A guy "contending" for a Norris is one of the elite in the league, and likely finishing top 1-5 in voting. Just receiving votes... just about every 1D in the league will get votes, and the list changes quite a bit year-to-year. As an example... 15 D received votes last year, 19 the year before, and 18 the year before that. Also... the Norris is not really a "best defenseman" trophy at this point. It's a "D who puts up the most points" trophy most years.

It's not a bad test, actually. Just receiving votes. The problem with using it... you might have 15 guys get votes one year, then only 5 of those same guys get votes the next, and 10-12 different D end up with the rest of the votes the next year. It's not perfect, but it's probably close to determining the number. I'm pretty comfortable saying there's around 25 true 1D in the league at any given moment. Just look at the lists from the last two years. Josi was 2nd in 23-24. Not a single vote the year before. Karlsson won it in 23. Not a single vote last year. There's just too much variance year-to-year to actually use it as a solid test.

2023-2024 Norris Votes

Place	Player	Age	Tm	Pos	Votes	Vote%	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	G	A	PTS	+/-	OPS	DPS	GPS	PS
1	Quinn Hughes	24	VAN	D	1864	96.08	172	17	5	0	0	17	75	92	38	7.9	6.5	0.0	14.4
2	Roman Josi	33	NSH	D	1207	62.22	12	108	61	8	2	23	62	85	12	8.0	4.8	0.0	12.8
3	Cale Makar	25	COL	D	893	46.03	9	61	59	21	18	21	69	90	15	8.2	4.1	0.0	12.3
4	Adam Fox	25	NYR	D	229	11.80	1	1	14	38	28	17	56	73	21	6.6	5.3	0.0	11.9
5	Evan Bouchard	24	EDM	D	212	10.93	0	1	19	29	23	18	64	82	34	7.3	5.8	0.0	13.1
6	Victor Hedman	33	TBL	D	201	10.36	0	4	6	42	17	13	63	76	18	6.2	5.4	0.0	11.6
7	Josh Morrissey	28	WPG	D	166	8.56	0	0	19	16	23	10	59	69	34	5.2	6.3	0.0	11.5
8	Noah Dobson	24	NYI	D	95	4.90	0	0	2	18	31	10	60	70	12	5.4	4.5	0.0	9.9
9	Gustav Forsling	27	FLA	D	85	4.38	0	1	6	10	18	10	29	39	56	2.6	8.0	0.0	10.6
10	Miro Heiskanen	24	DAL	D	43	2.22	0	1	3	3	12	9	45	54	8	3.9	3.7	0.0	7.7
11	Drew Doughty	34	LAK	D	18	0.93	0	0	0	4	6	15	35	50	15	3.7	6.1	0.0	9.8
12	Mattias Ekholm	33	EDM	D	15	0.77	0	0	0	2	9	11	34	45	44	3.3	6.2	0.0	9.5
13	Charlie McAvoy	26	BOS	D	7	0.36	0	0	0	2	1	12	35	47	4	3.5	4.1	0.0	7.6
14	Jaccob Slavin	29	CAR	D	6	0.31	0	0	0	1	3	6	31	37	21	2.0	5.6	0.0	7.6
15	Rasmus Dahlin	23	BUF	D	3	0.15	0	0	0	0	3	20	39	59	-3	5.3	4.1	0.0	9.

2022-2023 Norris Votes

Place	Player	Age	Tm	Pos	Votes	Vote%	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	G	A	PTS	+/-	OPS	DPS	GPS	PS
1	Erik Karlsson	32	SJS	D	1585	80.87	123	33	16	12	8	25	76	101	-26	9.4	3.0	0.0	12.4
2	Adam Fox	24	NYR	D	1125	57.40	41	72	28	20	11	12	60	72	28	5.5	6.4	0.0	11.9
3	Cale Makar	24	COL	D	553	28.21	12	26	29	26	28	17	49	66	16	6.0	4.5	0.0	10.5
4	Hampus Lindholm	29	BOS	D	483	24.64	12	14	31	30	20	10	43	53	49	3.7	7.2	0.0	10.9
5	Josh Morrissey	27	WPG	D	337	17.19	3	16	23	21	17	16	60	76	2	6.2	5.0	0.0	11.3
6	Dougie Hamilton	29	NJD	D	270	13.78	3	11	15	21	25	22	52	74	23	7.1	5.0	0.0	12.1
7	Miro Heiskanen	23	DAL	D	269	13.72	1	13	15	25	18	11	62	73	12	5.7	5.3	0.0	11.1
8	Rasmus Dahlin	22	BUF	D	262	13.37	0	6	23	25	30	15	58	73	12	6.1	4.2	0.0	10.2
9	Quinn Hughes	23	VAN	D	101	5.15	1	2	10	5	12	7	69	76	15	5.3	4.8	0.0	10.2
10	Brent Burns	37	CAR	D/RW	41	2.09	0	2	2	3	8	18	43	61	19	5.4	6.0	0.0	11.4
11	Vince Dunn	26	SEA	D	31	1.58	0	0	2	4	9	14	50	64	28	5.2	5.2	0.0	10.4
12	Brandon Montour	28	FLA	D	9	0.46	0	1	0	0	2	16	57	73	9	6.2	3.7	0.0	9.9
13	Jared Spurgeon	33	MIN	D	9	0.46	0	0	0	2	3	11	23	34	32	2.3	6.6	0.0	8.9
14	Devon Toews	28	COL	D	7	0.36	0	0	1	0	2	7	43	50	39	3.0	7.0	0.0	10.0
15	Victor Hedman	32	TBL	D	5	0.26	0	0	1	0	0	9	40	49	10	3.3	4.3	0.0	7.6
16	Mikhail Sergachev	24	TBL	D	4	0.20	0	0	0	1	1	10	54	64	13	4.7	4.7	0.0	9.3
17	Jaccob Slavin	28	CAR	D	3	0.15	0	0	0	1	0	7	20	27	18	1.3	5.4	0.0	6.7
18	Drew Doughty	33	LAK	D	1	0.05	0	0	0	0	1	9	43	52	12	3.2	5.3	0.0	8.5
18	Charlie McAvoy	25	BOS	D	1	0.05	0	0	0	0	1	7	45	52	29	3.8	5.0	0.0

This is my point, receiving votes equals having some chance at winning it if you simulated the season over and over again, its recognition by voters as well that they thought they were the best defenseman that year...overall, you're highly likely to get a vote for the norris if you're a 1D than if you're not, the lists pass the eye test imo at first glance

 

[Toews2Bickell]

Jones absolutely has been a shutdown guy since being traded to the Hawks and the numbers back it up.
He's in the 90th percentile+of defenders in the NHL.

if his deal was 1.5m per less without the NMC then the Hawks win that deal right?? Allan could turn into a solid 4-6 guy too

 

[Larmer83]

I love these pointless semantics arguments. Especially when we've had them before. Lol

And will undoubtedly have them again.

 

[x Tame Impala]

There aren’t 32 #1D/1C’s in the league by my definition. The term implies a level of effectiveness not guaranteed by merely being slotted as the first line center/defenseman.

Jones isn’t a 1D. He can’t be counted on to carry the team in all 3 zones or isn’t elite offensively/defensively.

Also, welcome back @RememberTheRoar

 

[Hawkaholic]

Jones absolutely has been a shutdown guy since being traded to the Hawks and the numbers back it up.
He's in the 90th percentile+of defenders in the NHL.

He's been our shutdown guy, but hasn't done much shutting down. He has been far too inconsistent defensively. 90+ percentile my ass.

 

[belfour30]

if his deal was 1.5m per less without the NMC then the Hawks win that deal right?? Allan could turn into a solid 4-6 guy too

Yeah especially since Jiricek is struggling to stick in the NHL. Could change depending on his development.

 

[belfour30]

He's been our shutdown guy, but hasn't done much shutting down. He has been far too inconsistent defensively. 90+ percentile my ass.

Yeah, he was that good in 2022 but he wasn't last year.
My bad.

https://x.com/i/web/status/1763249228879372379

This was from February 29th

I want to apologize for using outdated data. Please ignore what I said earlier.


Here's the evidence that the number I was referencing was from the 2022 season.

https://x.com/i/web/status/1724849610923921814