Has Peak/Prime McDavid surpassed Peak/Prime Crosby and Peak/Prime Jagr already?

[MadLuke]

When Howe scored 95, 45 points was enough to make the Top 10 and Maurice Richard was scoring 60-70

When Moore scored 95, you needed 60 something points to make the top 10.

The red wings had only 1.45 assists per goals, that 95 pts year, the league scoring changed quite a bit.

 

[Matsun]

Orr had his breakout 120 point season in 69 and from 69-74 there were only 4 non Boston 100 points seasons from players, 2 105 point seasons and no 110 seasons. The 5 seasons after that 27 times non Boston players hit 100 points, 23 hit 105, 18 hit 110 and 10 120 point seasons from non Boston players. Like I said maybe generational talents lead to league wide scoring changes? Here is a seasonal breakdown over 130 point scorers.
Original 6:
45-70: 0
Orr, Wayne and Mario:
71: 2
72: 1
73: 1
74: 1
75: 1
77: 1
78: 1
79: 2
80: 2
81: 3
82: 4
83: 1
84: 1
85: 3
86: 4
87: 1
88: 3
89: 4
90: 1
91: 2
92: 1
93: 6
94: 1
95 (lockout): 0
96: 2

Dead puck era:
97-22: 0

McDavid era:
23: 1
24: 3

 

[daver]

While scoring obviously plays a part, I do think the major factor is McDavid, Mackinnon, and Kucherov are just that good.

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The three post covid seasons. 7 times in 3 seasons someone has exceeded 115 points. McDavid x3. Kucherov, Mackinnon, Draisaitl, Panarin.

Of the top 13 scoring seasons in that time, McDavid, Kucherov, Mackinnon, and Draisaitl combine for 9 of them.

115ish is the highest we're seeing "the pack" score. But the top four continue to outscore the rest of the league.

Before 23/24, I think most had those two players in the mix for 2nd best player in the league with Draisaitl and Matthews (among forwards). By their late 20s, neither had hit a level that would have placed them on the same tier as Crosby, Malkin or Ovechkin (the post lockout era), or among others like Jagr, Forsberg, Lindros, Sakic, Yzerman, Lafleur etc.; players who had higher offensive peaks and/or higher all around peaks.

Last season certainly was unexpected by both; a bit moreso given their age and career stage. Kucherov seemed to have peaked in 18/19 and MacKinnon maybe had one Art Ross if he hadn't kept missing a few games every year but there wasn't an indication he had a really dominant season like 23/24 in him.

Since 17/18:

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McDavid - 1.61
Kucherov - 1.46 (#4 in points)
MacKinnon - 1.42
Draisaitl - 1.35 (#2 in points)
Panarin 1.24

#10 - 1.17
#25 - 1.00

MacKinnon and Kucherov stand out as #2/#3 (arguably clearly if you think that Draisaitl's numbers are likely a bit inflated due to McDavid.) with a clear gap between them and the pack. Both have playoff numbers (points/PPG) befitting their regular season dominance.


From 06/07 to 13/14:

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Crosby - 1.42
Malkin - 1.22 (#5 in points)
Ovechkin - 1.18 (#1 in points)
St. Louis - 1.07
Thornton 1.06

#10 - 1.01
#25 - 0.90

The clear #2/#3 are Malkin and Ovechkin, whose status is boosted with his GPG, with a clear gap between them and the pack. This time stretch includes Ovechkin's two "down years" and some injury-affected seasons for Malkin.


From 95/96 to 03/04

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Jagr - 1.38
Forsberg - 1.30 (5th in scoring)
Sakic - 1.20
Kariya - 1.09 (7th in scoring)
Palffy - 1.08

#10 - 1.00
#20 - 0.94 (adjusted for league size)

Forsberg and Sakic stand out as the clear #2/#3 and they add impressive playoff numbers to boost their status (i.e. they are better playoff performers than MacKinnon and Kucherov, not clearly but enough to place them above IMO).


Comment

While they have made a statistical case, primarily, if not exclusively, on their 23/24 regular seasons, intuitively, it doesn't feel like MacKinnon and Kucherov have placed themselves in the discussion with players who are Top 30ish caliber all-time in terms of peak/prime.

There is certainly a question as to whether the increase in league scoring since 17/18 has opened the door for superstar talent to exploit, perhaps even more noticeably in the playoffs.

I think McDavid has separated himself over his career offensively on the same level as Crosby, Jagr (for 7 seasons), and Howe. Howe is a great comparable as one can argue that his 06 era peers- Beliveau, Hull, and Mikita, matched his 2nd, 3rd and 4th best seasons but only once. McDavid's immediate peers got close to his peak once while he has two other dominant seasons on his resume. The question is, are MacKinnon and Kucherov on the same level as Beliveau, Hull, and Mikita.

 

[The Panther]

Great list (above)!

It also might be good, though, to consider games played when we're talking about exactly 130+ point seasons.

For most of the six-team period, the season was 70 games long (not that anyone was hitting 130 points). After expansion, there was a 74-game season, then two 76-game seasons, then four 78-game seasons. Then, 80-game seasons from 1974-75 through 1991-92. Two 84-game seasons in 1992-93 and 1993-94. Then, work stoppage 48-game season. Then, 82 game seasons....

Might make a bit of difference, esp. with 1992-93.

 

[BigBadBruins7708]

Before 23/24, I think most had those two players in the mix for 2nd best player in the league with Draisaitl and Matthews (among forwards). By their late 20s, neither had hit a level that would have placed them on the same tier as Crosby, Malkin or Ovechkin (the post lockout era), or among others like Jagr, Forsberg, Lindros, Sakic, Yzerman, Lafleur etc.; players who had higher offensive peaks and/or higher all around peaks.

Last season certainly was unexpected by both; a bit moreso given their age and career stage. Kucherov seemed to have peaked in 18/19 and MacKinnon maybe had one Art Ross if he hadn't kept missing a few games every year but there wasn't an indication he had a really dominant season like 23/24 in him.

Since 17/18:

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McDavid - 1.61
Kucherov - 1.46 (#4 in points)
MacKinnon - 1.42
Draisaitl - 1.35 (#2 in points)
Panarin 1.24

#10 - 1.17
#25 - 1.00

MacKinnon and Kucherov stand out as #2/#3 (arguably clearly if you think that Draisaitl's numbers are likely a bit inflated due to McDavid.) with a clear gap between them and the pack. Both have playoff numbers (points/PPG) befitting their regular season dominance.


From 06/07 to 13/14:

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Crosby - 1.42
Malkin - 1.22 (#5 in points)
Ovechkin - 1.18 (#1 in points)
St. Louis - 1.07
Thornton 1.06

#10 - 1.01
#25 - 0.90

The clear #2/#3 are Malkin and Ovechkin, whose status is boosted with his GPG, with a clear gap between them and the pack. This time stretch includes Ovechkin's two "down years" and some injury-affected seasons for Malkin.


From 95/96 to 03/04

NHL Stats

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Jagr - 1.38
Forsberg - 1.30 (5th in scoring)
Sakic - 1.20
Kariya - 1.09 (7th in scoring)
Palffy - 1.08

#10 - 1.00
#20 - 0.94 (adjusted for league size)

Forsberg and Sakic stand out as the clear #2/#3 and they add impressive playoff numbers to boost their status (i.e. they are better playoff performers than MacKinnon and Kucherov, not clearly but enough to place them above IMO).


Comment

While they have made a statistical case, primarily, if not exclusively, on their 23/24 regular seasons, intuitively, it doesn't feel like MacKinnon and Kucherov have placed themselves in the discussion with players who are Top 30ish caliber all-time in terms of peak/prime.

There is certainly a question as to whether the increase in league scoring since 17/18 has opened the door for superstar talent to exploit, perhaps even more noticeably in the playoffs.

I think McDavid has separated himself over his career offensively on the same level as Crosby, Jagr (for 7 seasons), and Howe. Howe is a great comparable as one can argue that his 06 era peers- Beliveau, Hull, and Mikita, matched his 2nd, 3rd and 4th best seasons but only once. McDavid's immediate peers got close to his peak once while he has two other dominant seasons on his resume. The question is, are MacKinnon and Kucherov on the same level as Beliveau, Hull, and Mikita.

Kucherov absolutely hit the Malkin/Ovechkin level before last year.

2019 has a Hart-Ross-Pearson season beating a healthy McDavid by 12 points.

Then follows it up with the best back to back playoff performances post lockout with 66 points in 48 games winning 2 Cups and leading the playoffs in scoring twice. And if he wasn't Russian he'd have back to back Smythes

 

[K Fleur]

Kucherov absolutely hit the Malkin/Ovechkin level before last year.

2019 has a Hart-Ross-Pearson season beating a healthy McDavid by 12 points.

Then follows it up with the best back to back playoff performances post lockout with 66 points in 48 games winning 2 Cups and leading the playoffs in scoring twice. And if he wasn't Russian he'd have back to back Smythes

I think this would be a point worth caring about if a Russian player and a Swedish player hadn’t won each of those Smythes.

And to be fair I think Kucherov should have won atleast one of them.

 

[jigglysquishy]

And if he wasn't Russian he'd have back to back Smythes

You think the reason a Russian lost the Conn Smythe to a Russian was anti-Russian bias?

 

[Michael Farkas]

"Number one bull****"

 

[MadLuke]

Like I said maybe generational talents lead to league wide scoring changes?

Team average goals season / Points needed to make the top 10

1978: 264 / 87
1979: 280 / 91
1980: 281 / 94
1981: 307 / 103
1982: 321 / 106
1983: 309 / 104
1984: 316 / 105
1985: 311 / 102
1986: 317 / 105
1987: 294 / 95
1988: 297 / 106
1989: 299 / 98

Gretzky first big year was in 1981, first 200 pts season was 1982, scoring never got higher than 1982, there was not a league wide increase caused by him (despite overtime coming back in 1984, helping scoring a bit).

For Howe, the league way to record assist got better, number of player by teams change, we could imagine more significant variable than Howe inspiring people to score more.


1953 was just particularly low scoring (1951 average teams scored 190 goals, only 168 in 53, same in 54 would be back up to 188 by 1957), one could assume the league would be increased it back regardless of Howe:

You could be right, but imagine someone in 2070 thinking that the 2006 scoring jump we saw was due to GM-coach reaction to Ovechkin-Crosby arrival in the league or their play affecting/inspiring others or other romantic storyline vs the league wanted more goals, they called more penalty & reduced goaltender equipment.

It is easier to imagine something reproducible influencing the league, there was a moment when you could find good skater with good corsi while not having lot of points players on third line-ahl around the league and can try to become a good corsi team, you could try to mimic the Panthers team and strategy in the 90s.

Trying to do what Gretzky oilers did and trying to win the cup by outscoring them... that less obvious. To take an Hollywood equivalent, trying to reproduce Titanic without James Cameron did not really work and it did cost over 100 millions a pop to try to do it like with Pearl Harbors, a success in a low budget horror-young adult from existing books or superheroes that do not need an all-timer great director to pull it off will have more copycats.

 

[Matsun]

Team average goals season / Points needed to make the top 10

1978: 264 / 87
1979: 280 / 91
1980: 281 / 94
1981: 307 / 103
1982: 321 / 106
1983: 309 / 104
1984: 316 / 105
1985: 311 / 102
1986: 317 / 105
1987: 294 / 95
1988: 297 / 106
1989: 299 / 98

Gretzky first big year was in 1981, first 200 pts season was 1982, scoring never got higher than 1982, there was not a league wide increase caused by him (despite overtime coming back in 1984, helping scoring a bit).

For Howe, the league way to record assist got better, number of player by teams change, we could imagine more significant variable than Howe inspiring people to score more.


1953 was just particularly low scoring (1951 average teams scored 190 goals, only 168 in 53, same in 54 would be back up to 188 by 1957), one could assume the league would be increased it back regardless of Howe:

League wide scoring changes might be a bit much to attribute to one player, but I think it could be possible for stars to raise their performances after a generational talent appears. In tennis Federer was all alone when he started peaking and was clearly looking like the GOAT. Then suddenly Nadal showed up and a few years later Djokovic and we got a decade of by far the 3 best tennis players ever all playing at the same time. In sprinting Usain Bolt was unbeatable, but his top competition ran times that would destroy the field today in an effort to try and catch him. Messi was reaching impossible levels in soccer and Ronaldo just started scoring more and more to try and keep up, Luis Suarez and Robert Lewandowski also had some of the greatest seasons ever by forwards this last decade.

You could be right, but imagine someone in 2070 thinking that the 2006 scoring jump we saw was due to GM-coach reaction to Ovechkin-Crosby arrival in the league or their play affecting/inspiring others or other romantic storyline vs the league wanted more goals, they called more penalty & reduced goaltender equipment.

I could see one of the reasons for the league wanting more goals being an existing talent lighting it up and the league wanting to try and show off the talent as much as possible. Maybe a small part of the reason why they relaxed the penalties postlockout was because of the super hyped Crosby about to enter the league. They also changed the rules ahead of 2018-19 when McDavid had won 2 straight Art Ross trophies and was lighting it up. It was clear both times that we needed higher scoring, but maybe the generational talent helped the league make changes to adress that?
---------------------
To get back on topic, I think McDavid surpassed Jagr in the playoffs and Crosby in the regular seasons. Maybe you could make the case that best case 11-12 for Crosby is as impressive as McDavid 22-23 but give 20-21 McDavid 82 games and that is even better anyway. Overall his peak and prime has combined playoff and regular season dominance in a way Jagr and Crosby never did.

 

[MadLuke]

League wide scoring changes might be a bit much to attribute to one player, but I think it could be possible for stars to raise their performances after a generational talent appears. In tennis Federer was all alone when he started peaking and was clearly looking like the GOAT.

That could be true and if there is a scoring race instead of taking the last game off players can push themselve a bit more to win it, but I feel this would be more Lemieux going where he would not have thought possible without Gretzky or just motivated to train and work when he saw what Gretzky did even if he was scoring 200 pts in the
league.

Effect on the elites, what possible to their eyes but not the average players, at least Gretzky seem to have had zero effect in league wise scoring and if he did not of all players.... (or maybe he had but it is completely missed, maybe the league would have turned back to defensive play faster without the OIlers, but then winnings cups inspired others and even if he did not inspire scoring to go up, they avoided a scoring decline...)

But it would be hard to know if the new best of all time influenced others or was just the first of what would have happened because of general change.

Harvey or Orr could be different, a bit like Curry shooting 3s, there it is easy to see how an influence could turn players into scoring more, going from not trying 100% to do so before to trying more after, unlike forward.

They also changed the rules ahead of 2018-19 when McDavid had won 2 straight Art Ross trophies and was lighting it up. It was clear both times that we needed higher scoring, but maybe the generational talent helped the league make changes to adress that?

That's sound more likely to me on what could happen, a bit like Mario return in 1996, is it just a coincidence that the league called more powerplays and scoring went up ? Maybe not, maybe we need to keep Mario in the league and exploit his return for TVs and gates prompted a referee meeting that summer.

 

[jcbio11]

Crosby yes, Jagr no.

 

[WalterLundy]

He has clearly passed both for peak and it won’t be a discussion for prime Jagr by the time McDavid is 30. That’s a mouthful too.

 

[WalterLundy]

I want to see how things play out over the next few years before making a final call.

In 2023, it looked like McDavid had one of the very best non-Big Four seasons of all-time. Nobody since Lemieux/Jagr had reached 130 points in close to 30 years, and he soared past that with 153.

Kucherov and MacKinnon both scoring 140+ points last year makes that somewhat less impressive. Did they both, purely by coincidence, have career years right after? Or is 140 going to be the "new normal" for the league's best scorers? McDavid's 2023 campaign was excellent either way, but what I'm still trying to figure out - is he a completely different class of player? Or did he just get to that total a bit earlier than the others?

If 140+ seasons or paces become the norm for three players total and not just McDavid in a league with just 3ish goals per game then we have to recognize that it would be something to celebrate rather than question.

Adjusted stats have their massive flaws and HockeyReference even more than the average adjustment method but you can use them to illustrate how good the new crop is.

Crosby/Ovi/Malkin/Kane period bests when adjusted

Crosby: 06-07: 122 in 79
(Next best: 09-10: 117 in 81)
*(10-11: 71 in 41 or a 142/82 pace)
Malkin: 11-12: 122 in 75
(Next best: 08-09: 117 in 82)
Ovechkin: 07-08: 122 in 82
(Next best: 09-10: 117 in 72)
Kane: 15-16: 119 in 82
(Next best: 18-19: 111 in 81)

McDavid/Kucherov/MacKinnon/Draisaitl period bests when adjusted:

McDavid: 20-21: 158 in 82
(Next best: 22-23: 146 in 82)
Kucherov: 23-24: 140 in 81
(Next best: 18-19: 128 in 82)
MacKinnon: 23-24: 138 in 82
(Next best: 22-23: 105 in 71)
Draisaitl: 19-20: 128 in 82
(Next best: 20-21: 127 in 82)

What Kucherov did in 81 games last year is exactly what Crosby’s 2011 pace would have been in 81 games. I think this current crop is the highest amount of top tier point production in a specific window when era is considered. Gretzky and Lemieux dominate the 80s and 90s with nobody close while Jagr eats up the tail end of the 90s.

The only players that have an adjusted season over 120 points from 1980-2004 that aren’t Gretzky, Lemieux or Jagr are 1989 Yzerman and Nicholls (128, 124), 1995 Lindros (121), 1999 Selanne (122) and 2001 Sakic (128).

If you use 1980 as your cutoff you’ll see that the only players that have higher seasons than McDavid’s best are Gretzky and Lemieux with only 5 such seasons. The only non Gretzky/Lemieux player that has been able to outdo Kucherov/MacKinnon/Draisaitl’s peak exploits has been Jagr and even then they put up quite a fight.

When you consider that these adjustments are taken to 3 goals per game (where the league has been for 7 years) it shows this even more that it is rare to have 130-150 point guys in a 3G/GP environment. Gretzky and Lemieux were absolute anomalies and Jagr is better than the rest since 1980 other than McDavid. The Crosby era never had a guy do it because they weren’t good enough and it makes these numbers we see now hard to believe. With this in mind it shows you just how good Kucherov/MacKinnon/Draisaitl are.

The fact that McDavid has been able to separate himself from his competitors is a statement because all of the Crosby era guys would be trailing them for peak output not dominating. If say a 170 point adjusted season were needed to combat Kucherov and MacKinnon’s 140/138 seasons to prove that McDavid is in a different class than them then it would take Gretzky’s best (170 from 1986). That should tell us how good McDavid’s competition truly is.

 

[MadLuke]

I think this current crop is the highest amount of top tier point production in a specific window when era is considered.

Lemieux-Gretzky-Yzerman era I imagine being one of the other that came to mind, but Gretkzy-Lemieux missed lot of games during Yzerman prime....

but high end HR adjustement creep post 2017 is not just at the very top, yearly average if we remove the Top 3 players (#4-10)

2023-24 NHL	101​
2022-23 NHL	102​
2021-22 NHL	100​
2020-21 NHL	98​
2019-20 NHL	102​
2018-19 NHL	100​
2017-18 NHL	95​
2016-17 NHL	87​
2015-16 NHL	89​
2014-15 NHL	83​
2013-14 NHL	89​
2012-13 NHL	98​
2011-12 NHL	88​
2010-11 NHL	89​
2009-10 NHL	98​
2008-09 NHL	94​
2007-08 NHL	100​
2006-07 NHL	98​
2005-06 NHL	97​
2003-04 NHL	93​
2002-03 NHL	101​
2001-02 NHL	89​

Could take 100 adjusted point to make top 10 this season (Marner is en route to barely make it with 106 at the moment) it was 81 in 2015.

10th best scorer got that much better relative to the league average ? Or change like 3v3 overtime starting the 2016 season, more and more aggressive pulling of the goaltender strategy pushed scoring distribution at the top 10% of the league in a way HR method does not capture (like they did not for powerplay hike in 1993-1996 and 2006/2007) ?

Top 10 could have noise obviously even the 4-10 position, but constant below 90 to constant above 100 is a big shift.