Has Peak/Prime McDavid surpassed Peak/Prime Crosby and Peak/Prime Jagr already?

[lbj23]

He has 5 Art Ross Trophy tying Jagr, better than Crosby 2 Art Ross Trophies. Has he already surpassed Crosby and Jagr who are generally acknowledged as the two best forwards post the Mario Lemieux era? Would love to hear arguments. And btw, McDavid can add to his accomplishments as he's still in his prime while Crosby is on the tail end of his career. But right now, has he already surpassed the latter two in terms of peak accomplishments?

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[jigglysquishy]

 

[The Panther]

Yes.

In terms of peak, there's no doubt that McDavid is ahead of Crosby. Comparing his peak to Jagr's is a little closer.

This forum is really obsessed with player comparisons. I sometimes wonder why we don't spend more time with interesting historical stories, facts, anecdotes, etc., or why we don't compare teams more than individual players (as hockey fundamentally isn't about individual players). But I guess it's just a human thing to obsess over individuals. I've noticed that whenever I start a thread about a historical season, or a thread comparing teams, it dies after about 4 posts. But if I go on to the forum and type "Sakic vs. Yzerman... ENTER" or whatever, it'll become a thread that goes of for 46 pages. I dunno, it's weird.

 

[gretzkyoilers]

How about comparing Jagr's first three seasons to his last three full seasons? This might be a better comparison with the perception that the NHL was "easier" in the early 90's versus the 2010's where most players from the 80's and 90's could play in this "new" NHL....

 

[VistamarCroissants]

McDavid has surpassed Crosby and is close to surpassing Jagr

 

[MadLuke]

I doubt McDavid has yet to peak, did he had a better peak than Jagr should not be too quick to answer, if he has a better year than the 153 + playoff, better playoff than last year..... we can re-take a look at it, but that would be quite something.

 

[Crosby2010]

So basically we are looking at a 153 point season where he dominates the scoring race at a level not seen since Mario and obviously Gretzky prior to that. Not just that but also a 42 point playoff. Neither Jagr or Crosby have done either of these. I know we never saw Crosby play at this level. With Jagr there are the times between 1995-'00 where he certainly looked McDavid-esque when looking at the scoring race. 1999 and 2000 come to mind. And even then, is that 2021 or 2023 McDavid? It isn't better I don't think but how much worse is it? I'd say just a little inferior. He did hit 149 points. So there is definitely an argument. As for careers it is still Crosby and Jagr over McDavid. He is just in his 10th year. They played a lot of hockey, Crosby is in his 20th. Both Jagr and Crosby are tied for 5th all-time in playoff points, so it is not as if they have never been here before. But I don't think we have seen a player at his best as good as McDavid since Mario, and that's almost three decades worth.

 

[The Panther]

So basically we are looking at a 153 point season where he dominates the scoring race at a level not seen since Mario and obviously Gretzky prior to that. Not just that but also a 42 point playoff. Neither Jagr or Crosby have done either of these.

I agree with you, but it's worth noting that in the calendar year of 1999, Jagr scored 152 points in 84 games played. That's 1.81 points-per-game, with the next-best player of that calendar year being Selanne at 1.30, an enormous separation.

Now, Jagr didn't do that in any one actual season (post 1995-96 anyway), but 150 points or whatever in 82 games in 1999 (full-on Dead Puck Era) probably "adjusts" to about 170 points or something crazy.

 

[MadLuke]

So basically we are looking at a 153 point season where he dominates the scoring race at a level not seen since Mario and obviously Gretzky prior to that.

1998-99 NHL

1.	J. Jágr	127
2.	T. Selänne*	107
3.	P. Kariya*	101
4.	P. Forsberg*	97
5.	J. Sakic*	96
6.	A. Yashin	94
7.	T. Fleury	93
	E. Lindros*	93
9.	J. LeClair	90
10.	P. Demitra	89

vs
2022-23 NHL

1.	C. McDavid	153
2.	L. Draisaitl	128
3.	N. Kucherov	113
	D. Pastrňák	113
5.	N. MacKinnon	111
6.	J. Robertson	109
	M. Tkachuk	109
8.	M. Rantanen	105
9.	R. Nugent-Hopkins	104
10.	E. Pettersson	102

It is true

McDavid scored 152 when the average top 10 players (excluded himself) scored 110.44 pts, or 37.6% more than the average top 10, 19.5% gap with number 2#10
Jagr scored 127 when the average top 10 players (excluded himself) scored 95.56 pts, or 32.9% more than the average top 10, 18.7% gap with number 2.

We saw something really close since Lemieux before that too playoff aside, in 2021 by McDavid:
2020-21 NHL

1.	C. McDavid	105
2.	L. Draisaitl	84
3.	B. Marchand	69
4.	M. Marner	67
5.	P. Kane	66
	A. Matthews	66
	M. Rantanen	66
8.	N. MacKinnon	65
9.	M. Scheifele	63
10.	S. Crosby	62

He scored 105 when the rest of the top 10 averaged 67.56 pts, 55% more, a bigger domination than the 153 pts season, but in a shorter year and obviously early first round exit.

In his last 82 games of Mack scored 150 pts (the 10th players during that time has 97), will see what should soon end of his peak look like but could be impressive has well.

 

[BigBadBruins7708]

Yes, I don't think it's too controversial to say he has the best peak since Lemeiux.

The only players with more Ross trophies are Howe, Mario and Gretzky

The only players with more Harts are Howe, Gretzky and Shore

 

[bobholly39]

Peak and prime are two different things.

Crosby's peak isn't all that impressive. It would have been more impressive without major injuryes in 11, 12 & 13. So yes - McDavid has surpassed Crosby's peak.

Crosby's prime? For me prime is loosely defined as seasons in which you're at ~85%+ of your "best" level, and considering's Crosby's insane consistency, I'd argue his whole career so far can be said to be part of his prime. No - I don't think McDavid has surpassed that yet. He likely will in time, but needs more years.

Jagr's peak is stronger than Crosby because he has more full seasons. Despite that, yes I think I'd have McDavid's peak ahead by now.

Prime? I think so too - I think prime McDavid > prime Jagr

Jagr still has impressive longevity outside of his prime, so I still rank Jagr ahead overall, but McDavid is getting close.

 

[daver]

Jagr still has impressive longevity outside of his prime, so I still rank Jagr ahead overall, but McDavid is getting close.

A ranking of their best regular seasons with tiers:

Tier 1

1. McDavid 22/23
2. Jagr 98/99
3. McDavid 202/21
3. Jagr 99/00

5. McDavid 23/24

Tier 2

Jagr 94/95
Jagr 95/96
Jagr 97/98
Jagr 00/01
Jagr 05/06

McDavid 16/17
McDavid 18/19
McDavid 22/23

Tier 3

McDavid 17/18
McDavid 19/20
Jagr 96/97

I would give McDavid the edge in playoff performances


Very close, Jagr perhaps stays ahead with longevity but I think McDavid is arguably is right beside him right now.

 

[BraveCanadian]

Easily surpasses Crosby’s peak unless you extrapolate a whole lot for Crosby.

In the same ballpark as Jagr’s best and probably better depending how you look at the context.

 

[Crosby2010]

I agree with you, but it's worth noting that in the calendar year of 1999, Jagr scored 152 points in 84 games played. That's 1.81 points-per-game, with the next-best player of that calendar year being Selanne at 1.30, an enormous separation.

Now, Jagr didn't do that in any one actual season (post 1995-96 anyway), but 150 points or whatever in 82 games in 1999 (full-on Dead Puck Era) probably "adjusts" to about 170 points or something crazy.

That is impressive, yes. Jagr was on a whole other level right around that time.

 

[Matsun]

I agree with you, but it's worth noting that in the calendar year of 1999, Jagr scored 152 points in 84 games played. That's 1.81 points-per-game, with the next-best player of that calendar year being Selanne at 1.30, an enormous separation.

Now, Jagr didn't do that in any one actual season (post 1995-96 anyway), but 150 points or whatever in 82 games in 1999 (full-on Dead Puck Era) probably "adjusts" to about 170 points or something crazy.

Yep. I took a look at the best calendar years recently with the crazy years McKinnon/Kucherov/McDavid are having and that Jagr year is insane especially with how much better it is than the seasons it is sandwitched between. Same thing goes for Dionne in 1979 (149 points in 80 games) who ''only'' had 137 and 130 points in those 2 seasons. Yzerman did it right and actually peaked in seasons as we can see his calendar scoring is not as impressive as his seasons:
1987: 81-47-67-114
1988: 65-59-62-121
1989: 81-55-76-131
1990: 80-58-65-123
1991: 77-46-52-98
1992: 83-56-63-119
1993: 53-33-61-94
1994: 48-20-47-67

 

[VanIslander]

Peak Jagr was considered a demi-god.

No more 'cuz of 99 & 66.

 

[The Panther]

Yep. I took a look at the best calendar years recently with the crazy years McKinnon/Kucherov/McDavid are having and that Jagr year is insane especially with how much better it is than the seasons it is sandwitched between. Same thing goes for Dionne in 1979 (149 points in 80 games) who ''only'' had 137 and 130 points in those 2 seasons. Yzerman did it right and actually peaked in seasons as we can see in his calendar scoring which is not as impressive as his seasons:
1987: 81-47-67-114
1988: 65-59-62-121
1989: 81-55-76-131
1990: 80-58-65-123
1991: 77-46-52-98
1992: 83-56-63-119
1993: 53-33-61-94
1994: 48-20-47-67

Don't forget that Yzerman got injured in early 1988, missing around 16 (?) games, so his calendar totals for that year will be lower than otherwise. If no injury, you probably throw another 20-25 points onto the 1988 total and then he has 145 or so.

Now, you've made me curious about other players and their calendar totals:

Gretzky
1980 -- (80GP) 140 points (1st)
1981 -- (85GP) 216 points (1st)
1982 -- (79GP) 199 points (1st)
1983 -- (80GP) 214 points (1st)
1984 -- (71GP) 200 points (1st)
1985 -- (81GP) 196 points (1st)
1986 -- (81GP) 213 points (1st)
1987 -- (79GP) 175 points (1st)
1988 -- (64GP) 149 points (2nd)
1989 -- (78GP) 162 points (2nd)
1990 -- (72GP) 132 points (1st)
1991 -- (73GP) 145 points (1st)
1993 -- (82GP) 128 points (3rd)
1996 -- (83GP) 106 points (4th)
1998 -- (75GP) 91 points (2nd)

Lemieux
1985 -- (82GP) 125 points (4th)
1986 -- (74GP) 130 points (2nd)
1987 -- (65GP) 124 points (2nd)
1988 -- (79GP) 200 points (1st)
1989 -- (78GP) 171 points (1st)
1991 -- (62GP) 119 points (4th)
1992 -- (66GP) 158 points (1st)
1996 -- (75GP) 133 points (1st)
2002 -- (50GP) 85 points (4th)

Jagr
1995 -- (84GP) 149 points (1st)
1996 -- (84GP) 127 points (2nd)
1998 -- (72GP) 96 points (1st)
1999 -- (84GP) 152 points (1st)
2001 -- (75GP) 111 points (1st)
2006 -- (83GP) 114 points (3rd)

McDavid
2017 -- (83GP) 102 points (2nd)
2018 -- (81GP) 121 points (1st)
2019 -- (82GP) 122 points (1st)
2021 -- (87GP) 157 points (1st)
2022 -- (87GP) 143 points (1st)
2023 -- (76GP) 129 points (2nd)
2024 -- (62GP) 109 points (3rd)

 

[Hockey Outsider]

I want to see how things play out over the next few years before making a final call.

In 2023, it looked like McDavid had one of the very best non-Big Four seasons of all-time. Nobody since Lemieux/Jagr had reached 130 points in close to 30 years, and he soared past that with 153.

Kucherov and MacKinnon both scoring 140+ points last year makes that somewhat less impressive. Did they both, purely by coincidence, have career years right after? Or is 140 going to be the "new normal" for the league's best scorers? McDavid's 2023 campaign was excellent either way, but what I'm still trying to figure out - is he a completely different class of player? Or did he just get to that total a bit earlier than the others?

 

[jigglysquishy]

While scoring obviously plays a part, I do think the major factor is McDavid, Mackinnon, and Kucherov are just that good.

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

The three post covid seasons. 7 times in 3 seasons someone has exceeded 115 points. McDavid x3. Kucherov, Mackinnon, Draisaitl, Panarin.

Of the top 13 scoring seasons in that time, McDavid, Kucherov, Mackinnon, and Draisaitl combine for 9 of them.

115ish is the highest we're seeing "the pack" score. But the top four continue to outscore the rest of the league.

 

[BigBadBruins7708]

I want to see how things play out over the next few years before making a final call.

In 2023, it looked like McDavid had one of the very best non-Big Four seasons of all-time. Nobody since Lemieux/Jagr had reached 130 points in close to 30 years, and he soared past that with 153.

Kucherov and MacKinnon both scoring 140+ points last year makes that somewhat less impressive. Did they both, purely by coincidence, have career years right after? Or is 140 going to be the "new normal" for the league's best scorers? McDavid's 2023 campaign was excellent either way, but what I'm still trying to figure out - is he a completely different class of player? Or did he just get to that total a bit earlier than the others?

IMO it's more that Kucherov and MacKinnon are McDavid's Malkin and Ovechkin.

No one knocks Crosby's 120 point season just because the next year Malkin had 113 and Ovechkin had 112.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

Semi off topic but I looked at the career forecast that I published in February 2020

I projected that, through the end of the 2023-24 season, McDavid would end up with 336 goals, 647 assists and 983 points. His actual results? 335 goals, 647 assists, and 983 points.

(If you want to get technical - obviously I couldn't have predicted that the league would need to cancel 38 games across two seasons due to COVID. McDavid actually played 645 games, and I forecasted 651. He gets to the same output, missing basically the same amount of time, but most of those missed games were due to the pandemic, rather than him being injured).

 

[authentic]

Don't forget that Yzerman got injured in early 1988, missing around 16 (?) games, so his calendar totals for that year will be lower than otherwise. If no injury, you probably throw another 20-25 points onto the 1988 total and then he has 145 or so.

Now, you've made me curious about other players and their calendar totals:

Gretzky
1980 -- (80GP) 140 points (1st)
1981 -- (85GP) 216 points (1st)
1982 -- (79GP) 199 points (1st)
1983 -- (80GP) 214 points (1st)
1984 -- (71GP) 200 points (1st)
1985 -- (81GP) 196 points (1st)
1986 -- (81GP) 213 points (1st)
1987 -- (79GP) 175 points (1st)
1988 -- (64GP) 149 points (2nd)
1989 -- (78GP) 162 points (2nd)
1990 -- (72GP) 132 points (1st)
1991 -- (73GP) 145 points (1st)
1993 -- (82GP) 128 points (3rd)
1996 -- (83GP) 106 points (4th)
1998 -- (75GP) 91 points (2nd)

Lemieux
1985 -- (82GP) 125 points (4th)
1986 -- (74GP) 130 points (2nd)
1987 -- (65GP) 124 points (2nd)
1988 -- (79GP) 200 points (1st)
1989 -- (78GP) 171 points (1st)
1991 -- (62GP) 119 points (4th)
1992 -- (66GP) 158 points (1st)
1996 -- (75GP) 133 points (1st)
2002 -- (50GP) 85 points (4th)

Jagr
1995 -- (84GP) 149 points (1st)
1996 -- (84GP) 127 points (2nd)
1998 -- (72GP) 96 points (1st)
1999 -- (84GP) 152 points (1st)
2001 -- (75GP) 111 points (1st)
2006 -- (83GP) 114 points (3rd)

McDavid
2017 -- (83GP) 102 points (2nd)
2018 -- (81GP) 121 points (1st)
2019 -- (82GP) 122 points (1st)
2021 -- (87GP) 157 points (1st)
2022 -- (87GP) 143 points (1st)
2023 -- (76GP) 129 points (2nd)
2024 -- (62GP) 109 points (3rd)

Yeah Jagr’s calendar year of 1999 is the best among him and McDavid no question. Not the same thing but Crosby had a crazy dominant 99 game stretch from 2010-13 in points per game with 170 points. He had as many total points as the 12th scorer in this timeframe despite playing basically half the games.

McDavid at his peak in the playoffs is at a level I don’t believe Crosby and Jagr ever reached either, 2022 and 2024 specifically he was just a one man team out there on a nightly basis. Truthfully I don’t even remember being that amazed by the play of Gretzky and Lemieux at their best judging strictly from what I saw with my own eyes. McDavid is comfortably the 4th best peak player of all-time for me largely due to these playoff performances.

IMO it's more that Kucherov and MacKinnon are McDavid's Malkin and Ovechkin.

No one knocks Crosby's 120 point season just because the next year Malkin had 113 and Ovechkin had 112.

Crosby’s 120 wasn’t even the best total of that timeframe though, as the year prior Jagr and Thornton had 123 and 125.

 

[authentic]

I want to see how things play out over the next few years before making a final call.

In 2023, it looked like McDavid had one of the very best non-Big Four seasons of all-time. Nobody since Lemieux/Jagr had reached 130 points in close to 30 years, and he soared past that with 153.

Kucherov and MacKinnon both scoring 140+ points last year makes that somewhat less impressive. Did they both, purely by coincidence, have career years right after? Or is 140 going to be the "new normal" for the league's best scorers? McDavid's 2023 campaign was excellent either way, but what I'm still trying to figure out - is he a completely different class of player? Or did he just get to that total a bit earlier than the others?

Yeah if Kaprizov gets around 140 this season I would start to question it a little, but it wouldn’t change the fact that McDavid is the best player at his best since Lemieux.

 

[Matsun]

Yeah if Kaprizov gets around 140 this season I would start to question it a little, but it wouldn’t change the fact that McDavid is the best player at his best since Lemieux.

Top seasons 50-54:
53 Howe: 95 pts
52 Howe: 86 pts
51 Howe: 86 pts
54 Howe: 81 pts
50 Lindsey: 78 pts
Top seasons 55-59:
59 Moore: 96 pts
59 Beliveau: 91 pts
57 Howe: 89 pts
56 Beliveau: 88 pts
59 Bathgate: 88 pts

Howes peak numbers were quickly threatned and even Gretzky and Orr got threatned instantly by Mario and Coffey. Maybe generational players gets other stars around the league to raise their level to catch up to them?

 

[authentic]

Top seasons 50-54:
53 Howe: 95 pts
52 Howe: 86 pts
51 Howe: 86 pts
54 Howe: 81 pts
50 Lindsey: 78 pts
Top seasons 55-59:
59 Moore: 96 pts
59 Beliveau: 91 pts
57 Howe: 89 pts
56 Beliveau: 88 pts
59 Bathgate: 88 pts

Howes peak numbers were quickly threatned and even Gretzky and Orr got threatned instantly by Mario and Coffey. Maybe generational players gets other stars around the league to raise their level to catch up to them?

To an extent but I think it’s much more likely that the numbers are a product of the time. That’s not to take away from their dominance which stands on its own.