Has Connor Bedard quietly became underrated ?

[Divine]

It’s all relative though. Scoring is much higher now.

In Matthews rookie season, 44 goals won the Rocket and the Art Ross was won with McDavid hitting 100 points, second in league scoring was 89 points. Not a single player in the league hit 50 goals in Matthews first 2 seasons.

In comparison, 4 players hit 50+ just last year, with one hitting 69 goals. 9 players finished with over 100 points last year with 2 players getting 100 assists alone. 19 players finished with at least 89 points last season which would have been 2nd in league scoring in Matthews rookie season.

 

[Matsun]

It’s all relative though. Scoring is much higher now.

In Matthews rookie season, 44 goals won the Rocket and the Art Ross was won with McDavid hitting 100 points, second in league scoring was 89 points. Not a single player in the league hit 50 goals in Matthews first 2 seasons.

In comparison, 4 players hit 50+ just last year, with one hitting 69 goals. 9 players finished with over 100 points last year with 2 players getting 100 assists alone. 19 players finished with at least 89 points last season which would have been 2nd in league scoring in Matthews rookie season.

Yep, Matthews was 20th in PPG over his 112 games stretch and Bedard was 51st.

Kucherov was the PPG leader both those periods weirdly enough, 8 years apart.

 

[CallMeShaft]

It’s all relative though. Scoring is much higher now.

In Matthews rookie season, 44 goals won the Rocket and the Art Ross was won with McDavid hitting 100 points, second in league scoring was 89 points. Not a single player in the league hit 50 goals in Matthews first 2 seasons.

In comparison, 4 players hit 50+ just last year, with one hitting 69 goals. 9 players finished with over 100 points last year with 2 players getting 100 assists alone. 19 players finished with at least 89 points last season which would have been 2nd in league scoring in Matthews rookie season.

Sure, but AM34 had a lot more help offensively on those Leafs team.

Just comparing their rookie seasons, the Leafs had JVR, Kadri, Nylander, and Marner all hit over 60pts (in addition to Matthews who hit 69 in 82). Last year's Hawks team had Bedard at 61 in 68, and then Kurashev with 54 in 75, Foligno with 37 in 74, and Dickinson with 35 in 82.

Matthews had a hell of a lot more help. Whether or not they were all his linemates or not, all those players were other guys teams had to focus on and attempt to shutdown. You couldn't just put your checking line out against Matthews, because you'd be giving Kadri easier opportunities.

Bedard didn't have any of that. The Hawks 2nd best forward last year is a guy who is a frequent healthy scratch this year. The next best forward is Nick Foligno, who at his age, was frequently on Boston's 4th line the year prior.

Hawks did improve a bit this year, but there is still a giant talent discrepancy between Matthews' Leafs in his 2nd year and Bedard's Hawks in his. So league wide increases in scoring recently probably isn't playing much of a role on a Hawks team scoring this little.

Having said all that, Auston Matthews is a damn good player and if Bedard only had that level of an impact during the regular season, it wouldn't be a negative. I would hope for more in the playoffs, though.

 

[Divine]

Having said all that, Auston Matthews is a damn good player and if Bedard only had that level of an impact during the regular season, it wouldn't be a negative. I would hope for more in the playoffs, though.

Yeah but it’s ridiculous to say Bedard is going to the same as Matthews and better than MacKinnon just because he hit 100 points faster in a higher scoring league isn’t it?

The points aren’t equal anyway. Matthews was much higher up in league scoring. He was third in the NHL in goalscoring as a rookie.

That’s like saying Panarin was a better scorer than peak Crosby because they both peaked at 120 points but Crosby had more ‘help’ - despite Crosby playing in a much lower scoring era.

 

[CallMeShaft]

Yeah but it’s ridiculous to say Bedard is going to the same as Matthews and better than MacKinnon just because he hit 100 points faster in a higher scoring league isn’t it?

The points aren’t equal anyway. Matthews was much higher up in league scoring. He was third in the NHL in goalscoring as a rookie.

That’s like saying Panarin was a better scorer than peak Crosby because they both peaked at 120 points but Crosby had more ‘help’ - despite Crosby playing in a much lower scoring era.

Matthews is a better goalscorer than pretty much everyone not named Ovi. But points wise, he was only 20th in his D+1 season. Goals may be generally more valuable than assists, but there are a lot of variables to that.

The point of that tweet you initially responded to isn't to say "Bedard is as good as or better than these players!". It's to say that, despite all the disappointment over his level of play during his short time in this league, he's still trending well compared to some of the biggest names in the league. And sure, league scoring is up, but as I previously said, it's not up for the Hawks.

Not every post on this site is a slight against the Leafs or their players.

 

[Divine]

Matthews is a better goalscorer than pretty much everyone not named Ovi. But points wise, he was only 20th in his D+1 season. Goals may be generally more valuable than assists, but there are a lot of variables to that.

The point of that tweet you initially responded to isn't to say "Bedard is as good as or better than these players!". It's to say that, despite all the disappointment over his level of play during his short time in this league, he's still trending well compared to some of the biggest names in the league. And sure, league scoring is up, but as I previously said, it's not up for the Hawks.

Not every post on this site is a slight against the Leafs or their players.

He’s not trending that way though.

Compare them relative to the league, not just their raw numbers in a higher scoring league. Bedard got more PP time and ice time than any of those players on that list. He came in as the guy and basically got as much opportunity as possible. Whereas Babcock had Matthews start in the D-zone and start on PP2 or play half the PP because he liked 2 units.

Matthews, MacK, Hughes didn’t play as much as him. Heck, I don’t think most rookies did. Even McDavid wasn’t gifted the opportunities that Bedard gets.

Using a stat like that to compare him to the leagues top players when relative to scoring he’s not even close to as impactful is wrong. I don’t care if it’s a slight or not, it’s factually inaccurate.

Most coaches would bench their players for being second in the league in minus. Bedard gets ample opportunity because of the hype he came in with.

 

[Stephen]

I think these are actually reference points for a Bedard.

Matthews was a phenomenal goal scorer coming into the league but his pure point production lagged a little in those early days. He has never hit those big 120+ point totals of the perennial Art Ross crowd, but I don't Bedard is a 60+ goal man like Matthews. He also started as a late '97 birthday and received less PP and ice time during the Babcock years.

Mackinnon was very slow to start his career and was in quasi disappointment territory until a handful of years after his ELC before taking off and then really taking.

Hughes was also a bit of a slow starter but his billing wasn't anywhere near the Bedard hype.

 

[CallMeShaft]

He’s not trending that way though.

Compare them relative to the league, not just their raw numbers in a higher scoring league. Bedard got more PP time and ice time than any of those players on that list. He came in as the guy and basically got as much opportunity as possible. Whereas Babcock had Matthews start in the D-zone and start on PP2 or play half the PP because he liked 2 units.

Matthews, MacK, Hughes didn’t play as much as him. Heck, I don’t think most rookies did. Even McDavid wasn’t gifted the opportunities that Bedard gets.

Using a stat like that to compare him to the leagues top players when relative to scoring he’s not even close to as impactful is wrong. I don’t care if it’s a slight or not, it’s factually inaccurate.

Most coaches would bench their players for being second in the league in minus. Bedard gets ample opportunity because of the hype he came in with.

Plus/minus is a shit stat.

And who cares if Bedard was getting top line/unit minutes? Again, the Hawks' best forward after Bedard last year, points wise, was Philip Kurashev, a player that is extremely close to the waiver wire this year. Bedard was legitimately playing with bottom 6 talent all of last year and the roster has improved only slightly since.

With regards to last year's Hawks, he was absolutely impactful. He contributed on 34.3% of the team's goals. Matthews, in his rookie season, was a part of 27.6% of the Leafs goals. That is a stat that should not be affected by higher scoring rates for the league.

And I'm not trying to bash Auston Matthews. Outside of some disappointing playoff performances, he's been a beast. It wouldn't be disappointing if that's the caliber of player Bedard lands at. My issues are with those who are treating him like a bust. A slight disappointment (at least so far) considering his draft pedigree? Sure. But still very much on track to be among the best in the league in the future (like Matthews, like Mackinnon, like J. Hughes, etc).

 

[Divine]

Plus/minus is a shit stat.

And who cares if Bedard was getting top line/unit minutes? Again, the Hawks' best forward after Bedard last year, points wise, was Philip Kurashev, a player that is extremely close to the waiver wire this year. Bedard was legitimately playing with bottom 6 talent all of last year and the roster has improved only slightly since.

With regards to last year's Hawks, he was absolutely impactful. He contributed on 34.3% of the team's goals. Matthews, in his rookie season, was a part of 27.6% of the Leafs goals. That is a stat that should not be affected by higher scoring rates for the league.

No one said he's not impactful. It's just a very skewed stat.

In terms of relative to the league. Matthews was closer to being the best player in the league in his first 112 games than he was to being Bedard. That's why the stat is so skewed by higher scoring.

Matthews was 20th in NHL scoring in his first 112 games.
Bedard was was 51st in NHL scoring in his first 112 games.

Matthews (20th) was much closer to 1 than he was to Bedard (51). That's why it's not very reflective of the numbers.

No one's saying Bedard can't be good. I'm just providing context towards the numbers. Especially when you throw up statements like well if he just ends up as good as Matthews because his numbers are the same. Okay, but Matthews was better offensively, defensively, and at face-offs. There's nothing Bedard has done better than Matthews in their first 2 seasons so far but that doesn't mean he can't. Assuming he's basically a Matthews level talent at worst based on those stats is quite the reach.

 

[WarriorofTime]

No one said he's not impactful. It's just a very skewed stat.

In terms of relative to the league. Matthews was closer to being the best player in the league in his first 112 games than he was to being Bedard. That's why the stat is so skewed by higher scoring.

Matthews was 20th in NHL scoring in his first 112 games.
Bedard was was 51st in NHL scoring in his first 112 games.

Matthews (20th) was much closer to 1 than he was to Bedard (51). That's why it's not very reflective of the numbers.

No one's saying Bedard can't be good. I'm just providing context towards the numbers. Especially when you throw up statements like well if he just ends up as good as Matthews because his numbers are the same. Okay, but Matthews was better offensively, defensively, and at face-offs. There's nothing Bedard has done better than Matthews in their first 2 seasons so far but that doesn't mean he can't. Assuming he's basically a Matthews level talent at worst based on those stats is quite the reach.

You can provide context to adjust for League but not for team? The league being higher scoring meant very little for Bedard considering his teammates did not get the memo on a higher scoring league. Very few 1st-2nd year players have been in such an offensive wasteland. Even fewer have still managed to produce beside it.

 

[Divine]

You can provide context to adjust for League but not for team? The league being higher scoring meant very little for Bedard considering his teammates did not get the memo on a higher scoring league. Very few 1st-2nd year players have been in such an offensive wasteland. Even fewer have still managed to produce beside it.

This argument is never ending. Being on a stronger team means less opportunity. Matthews was playing with Connor Brown and Zach Hyman as a rookie. They were worse than Bedard's linemates. They finished with 36 and 26 points respectively. He also got less PP time and total ice time than Bedard.

 

[WarriorofTime]

This argument is never ending. Being on a stronger team means less opportunity. Matthews was playing with Connor Brown and Zach Hyman as a rookie. They were worse than Bedard's linemates.

Leafs 250 Goals Matthews Rookie year
Blackhawks 178 Goals Bedard Rookie Year

You do know of course that players don't rotate on new teams every game?

Matthews had JVR, Marner, Nylander, Kadri, Bozak all on his team. His most frequent linemates at 5 on 5 were Hyman and Nylander (43 % of 5 on 5 time).

 

[Divine]

Leafs 250 Goals Matthews Rookie year
Blackhawks 178 Goals Bedard Rookie Year

You do know of course that players don't rotate on new teams every game?

Matthews had JVR, Marner, Nylander, Kadri, Bozak all on his team. His most frequent linemates at 5 on 5 were Hyman and Nylander (43 % of 5 on 5 time).

Okay, now try total ice time or PP time for each individual player.

Did Connor Bedard's stats get worse with all his additional icetime and PP time?

 

[CallMeShaft]

Okay, now try total ice time or PP time for each individual player.

Did Connor Bedard's stats get worse with all his additional icetime and PP time?

You can get all the PP time in the world, but if your pp unit consists of Philip Kurashev and a 36yo Nick Foligno, you're probably not going to generate a whole lot.

 

[Divine]

You can get all the PP time in the world, but if your pp unit consists of Philip Kurashev and a 36yo Nick Foligno, you're probably not going to generate a whole lot.

Other elite players have great stats on bad teams. In fact, most first overall picks are drafted to bad teams surprisingly.

 

[CallMeShaft]

Other elite players have great stats on bad teams. In fact, most first overall picks are drafted to bad teams surprisingly.

Yet it seems Matthews had Nylander as one of his two most frequent linemates. Poor guy, playing with garbage...

 

[Divine]

Yet it seems Matthews had Nylander as one of his two most frequent linemates. Poor guy, playing with garbage...

What can I say, elite players make their linemates look good. Nylander with Bedard probably scores 30 points and everyone says how bad he is.

Scoring 40 goals definitely helps your linemates stats a lot - Bedard should try it. 20 more goals would lead to more assists for his linemates.

 

[CallMeShaft]

What can I say, elite players make their linemates look good. Nylander with Bedard probably scores 30 points and everyone says how bad he is.

Scoring 40 goals definitely helps your linemates stats a lot - Bedard should try it. 20 more goals would lead to more assists for his linemates.

I'm 100% certain William Nylander, even back in 16/17, was a better player than every Hawks forward last year not named Connor. Hell, probably better than every Hawks forward this year not named Connor.

Our 2nd best forward this season has probably been Tyler Bertuzzi, whom I assume you're familiar with.

And again, I'm not even suggesting that he's better than Matthews. I never did here. The tweet you originally replied to here didn't either. I even stated that I'd be more than pleased if he turns into that caliber of player.

But do continue to be upset that someone compares a player to your captain. Obviously Auston is heads and shoulders above every other player in the league. My mistake.

 

[FDBluth]

What can I say, elite players make their linemates look good. Nylander with Bedard probably scores 30 points and everyone says how bad he is.

Scoring 40 goals definitely helps your linemates stats a lot - Bedard should try it. 20 more goals would lead to more assists for his linemates.

You ever heard of a guy named Philipp Kurashev?

 

[archangel2]

He is playing on a very bad team. I can see them getting bashed for tanking to get high picks like many other teams have. They will draft 1st or 2nd this next draft meaning 3 drafts in row they will have drafted 1st or 2nd