Has Connor Bedard quietly became underrated ?

[WarriorofTime]

I’m still baffled why they didn’t try to bring in a few more skill players to lessen the load. When did came in Pittsburgh signed Gonchar, Palfy, Recchi etc always had some veterans who could still play to lean on.

Bedard has Foligno. Who’s ok, but has never been a high end offensive guy.

The "get Bedard some help" acquisitions were really Hall and Foligno last year, Bertuzzi and Teravainen this year. Add in likely hoping for more out of Kurashev this year after the season he had a year ago. Add in hoping Reichel would have taken a bigger step forward the last couple years. They extended Athanasiou at a pretty decent cap hit who was waived and in the AHL this year (before getting injured). Those moves/players really have not worked out too well, albeit none were true swing for the fences type moves.

One telling stat, Bedard leads the team in assists with 14. The next three highest assist totals on the Hawks are defensemen each with eight. No other Hawks forward has even half the number of assists that Bedard has right now. There really isn't anyone else out there to create chances. And Bedard can't exactly have a second Bedard on his line. There just isn't a Malkin or Draisaitl out there for him his second year. Not saying that means he'd be winning an Art Ross if there were, but it undoubtedly makes a difference when the team has another Forward out there to get attention and play off. Outside of Bedard they have Ryan Donato on an absolute heater and are getting subpar contributions out of the players they likely would have hoped could be more support.

I think he'll be fine long-term. Right now, he needs to continue to get stronger, continue improving on his skating speed and hopefully the forward talent around him will gradually improve because it'd be hard not to. For stretches, you can see he's been rather discouraged because of a slump that he's never experienced before. Battling through it is all just part of becoming an NHL player.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

One telling stat, Bedard leads the team in assists with 14. The next three highest assist totals on the Hawks are defensemen each with eight. No other Hawks forward has even half the number of assists that Bedard has right now. There really isn't anyone else out there to create chances.

I am not sure that argument really holds water. He's a brilliant passer, especially with time and space, but his raw assist totals are higher than his teammates because of his PP assist totals (he has 8 PP assists, 5 of which are secondary), which is driven significantly by him having more PP ice time than anyone else. He's 2nd on the team in PP assists/60 behind Vlasic, and 4th in primary PP assists/60 behind Vlasic, Hall, and TT.

At 5v5, he's been pretty mediocre poor in terms of assists - below are his individual 5v5 ranks among Hawks with >100 mins:
- 4th in primary assists/60
- 6th in total assists/60

Here are his on ice 5v5 ranks among Hawks with >100 mins:
- 9th in on ice GF/60 (2.09)
- 6th in on ice xGF/60 (2.25)
- 10th in on ice CF/60
- 11th in on ice SCF/60
- 17th in on ice HDCF/60

His overall 5v5 scoring and individual chance creation have also been quite pedestrian:
- 5th in points/60
- 7th in goals/60
- 3rd in ixG/60
- 4th in iCF/60 and iSCF/60
- 12th in iHDCF/60

While he's very clearly the most gifted offensive talent on the team, he's struggling to generate high danger chances for himself and his teammates. His on ice HDCF/60 ranks worse than his iHDCF/60. For all the talk about how terrible the Hawks are, he should be absolutely lapping his teammates in these core offensive metrics.

In the past, you could blame his teammates poor finishing ability on some of Bedard's relative offensive struggles, but his linemates have shot at a much higher rate this year than last year, and are finishing much better than Bedard is himself. So the poor teammate excuse doesn't hold nearly as much water as it did last year.

His teammates are just getting a lot less high danger chances with Bedard vs last year. And Bedard's individual high danger rates have absolutely plummeted as well. Look at the splits below:

I believe some of these drops are due to him playing a more responsible 2 way game this year, as he's been much more conservative about flying the zone, which is how he generated much of his high danger chances last year. But I think a lot of these issues stem from other teams learning how to keep him to the outside and trusting their goaltenders to save his perimeter wrist shot.

If he doesn't make significant improvements in his speed and strength (which don't look all that improved vs last year), he will need to make some significant adaptations to his game to become an elite 5v5 offensive player.

And Bedard can't exactly have a second Bedard on his line. There just isn't a Malkin or Draisaitl out there for him his second year. Not saying that means he'd be winning an Art Ross if there were, but it undoubtedly makes a difference when the team has another Forward out there to get attention and play off. Outside of Bedard they have Ryan Donato on an absolute heater and are getting subpar contributions out of the players they likely would have hoped could be more support.

No doubt Bedard would benefit from having an elite linemate, but McDavid and Crosby didn't need a Malkin or Draisaitl to dominate the league as rookies, so I am pretty confident they would have been just fine without them in their 2nd years.

- Rookie McDavid was 3rd in pts/gp and 2nd in 5v5 p/60 (>500 mins) with 2.73 p/60, while playing with Jordan Eberle (1.89 p/60) and Benoit Pouliot (2.20 p/60).
- Rookie Crosby was 2nd in league scoring from December 23rd onward, with Colby Armstrong, Tomas Surovy, and Andy Hilbert as his primary wingers.

So it's pretty ridiculous to suggest that Crosby and McDavid wouldn't have dominated the league as sophomores without Malkin or Draisaitl.

I think he'll be fine long-tem. Right now, he needs to continue to get stronger, continue improving on his skating speed and hopefully the forward talent around him will gradually improve because it'd be hard not to. For stretches, you can see he's been rather discouraged because of a slump that he's never experienced before. Battling through it is all just part of becoming an NHL player.

I agree that he will figure it out, but he'll never be a McDavid/Crosby level threat that many have been asserting. I really think his struggles to meet those ridiculous expectations really hurt his confidence this season, and have been a big part of why he's regressed so much vs last year.

Hopefully this is the last year his name is mentioned in the same sentence as 87 and 97. Let him focus more on becoming the best player he can be, instead of constantly struggling to live up to impossible expectations.

I'm rooting for him.

 

[Agent Zuuuub]

i think one of the closest comparables to Bedard reaching his ultimate upside is Kucherov.

and Kucherov didn't become "Kucherov" until what he was 23?

 

[WarriorofTime]

I am not sure that argument really holds water.
…


I'm rooting for him.

It’s a stat not an argument.

You must be the “tough love” type. A lot of words to essentially say you don’t think he’s as good as players 10 and 20 years ago which I didn’t even really disagree with.

I understand there have been struggles this year, won't see an argument for me. While you said "his raw assist totals are higher than his teammates because of his PP assist totals (he has 8 PP assists, 5 of which are secondary), which is driven significantly by him having more PP ice time than anyone else." it does feel as though you're being a bit selective choosey here.

If I use a 50 minute filter (I welcome suggestions on if you think another is more fair) for total powerplay time on the season thus far to filter out the really small sample sizes. Amongst 175 qualifiers, Bedard is 13th in Powerplay Points Per 60 in the NHL, that's top 7.4 percentile in the NHL. These are the kind of encouraging things that you can look to and go "ok, yeah the talent is there". Last year it was more even strength scoring, this year it's been more powerplay. I can tell from watching that he hasn't found a good combo of linemates at even strength this year, it's been a bit of a blender and they get hemmed in a lot. Not that Bedard doesn't have his share of criticism, but that's just from watching. Last year, him and Kurashev had a good thing going. This year, it hasn't been that way with anyone.

Hopefully it all comes together to a rounded whole, but I'm more inclined to say it will than it won't if I were to wager on it. Look at picks 2-4 from his draft, Carlsson 40 points in 75 games, Fantilli 39 points in 72 games, Smith 11 points in 22 games. Look a year earlier, Slafkovsky 74 points in 142 games, Cooley 64 points in 106 games, Wright 14 points in 38 games. Even a year before that, Beniers 114 points in 192 games, McTavish 97 points in 170 games. So it's not like Bedard with his 80 points in 92 games career to date is watching other highly touted forwards skate away from him.

It's a tough world for young forwards stepping into the NHL today. If Bedard starts really falling behind his peers in terms of offensive production, that's going to be a bit more concerning than looking at what players 10, 20 years ago were doing.

 

[authentic]

i think one of the closest comparables to Bedard reaching his ultimate upside is Kucherov.

and Kucherov didn't become "Kucherov" until what he was 23?

That would be nice to see. Really hope he can manage to become that good, with hopefully even more goal scoring prowess.

 

[SimpleJack]

Anyone paying attention to these last couple games he’s played can see that he’s clearly showing signs of hitting stride/finding another gear. It’s obvious that he’s feeling a lot less pressure since ending the goal drought. He’s been so bad….had such a rough time…and yet here he is just a breakout game or 2 away from being right where we all expect him to be statistically. And all of this with horrible coaching and almost zero help in terms of linemates/teammates. Not to mention changing positions back and forth.

This start to 2024 has been rough, it’s been a challenge and hard times fall upon most young players. Eventually, however, we’re going to see the opposite. A hot stretch. Where he’s getting all the bounces and can do no wrong. This is all going to even out in the end.

I think he’s deserved the criticism, and it’s OK given the expectations and the hype. But at the same time those who have doubted his long term outlook or questioned whether this was anything more than a slump/funk/period in which he was simply not focused or feeling confident mentally….will all realize the truth. Not that he’s the next Crosby/McDavid because he isn’t. But he’s gonna be fine big picture and is destined to become a superstar. And no offense to other great young players like Michkov or Celebrini(who while Bedard has been struggling both have been on fire and can seemingly do no wrong. Again….this will all even out) but there’s no way in hell I’d choose one of them over Bedard looking at the big picture, no matter how bad of a slump he was in.