Hart Trophy Talk: MacKinnon, Malkin, Kucherov the Early Favorites, Scoring at Highest Rates By Far.

[Blade Paradigm]

The NHL scoring race this year has been so volatile that it seems every few games the rankings shift dramatically behind the current points leader. Taylor Hall, Johnny Gaudreau, Connor McDavid, Blake Wheeler, Claude Giroux, Alex Ovechkin, and Anze Kopitar are among the players all leading their teams in scoring and in hot pursuit of the points scoring lead. However, three players at the top of the scoring race are clearly distinct from the rest of the pack: Nathan MacKinnon, Evgeni Malkin, and Nikita Kucherov. Their rates of production are so much higher than everybody else's, and their efficiency with ice time is unparalleled this year. This leads me to believe that they are the early favorites for the Hart Trophy, as through 60+ games they have been the three best skaters in the NHL.

These three players not only lead the entire NHL by far in terms of points per game, but also by points per 60 -- this means that they score more points than anybody else per game, and also score at a higher rate per minute of ice time than anybody else in the league. In terms of points production, these three players are by far the most efficient, and they happen to, as of March 2, 2018, rank first, second, and fourth in the NHL points race. Brad Marchand ranks fourth in these two categories, but is far behind in the actual scoring race with just 60 points as of today. The other player worth mentioning is Taylor Hall, who ranks fifth and seventh, respectively, on these lists. He currenly ranks 11th in NHL scoring.

There will obviously be much talk about which players deserve to be nominated for the Hart Trophy this season. In terms of production alone, these three players are ahead of the pack. In terms of their performances within the context of their team's season, all three teams could be playoff-bound: Kucherov is having the most success on a team with other high-end scorers, while Malkin's team is also laden with veteran talent and in a comfortable playoff position; the player with the greatest influence on his team's chances is Nathan MacKinnon, whose Colorado Avalanche squad is on the cusp of making the playoffs after a disastrous 2016-17 season. Without MacKinnon, the Avalanche might not be in this close race for a playoff berth, and from a talent perspective they do not command anywhere near as much respect as Malkin or Kucherov's teams. The Penguins (Crosby, 69 points) and Lightning (Stamkos, 72 points) both have other players within ten points of their respective teams' scoring leaders. There is a slightly wider gap between MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen of 13 points.

With fewer than 20 games remaining in the season, it is possible that any of these three players will be the NHL scoring leader at the end of the season. Malkin (78 points) is four points behind Nikita Kucherov (82 points); Nathan MacKinnon (76 points) is six points behind the leader. Kucherov is currently injured. Connor McDavid, who would otherwise be a potential candidate with 77 points currently, ranks well bellow these three in terms of points per 60 -- 15th, in fact -- due to the nearly two minutes of extra TOI he receives per game than them (an average of 21:25 vs 19:57 for Kucherov, 19:28 for MacKinnon, and 18:57 for Malkin); he also ranks only fifth in points per game, and his team currently ranks 27th out of 31 in the NHL. McDavid is not a Hart Trophy candidate this season.

The wildcard, as mentioned, is Taylor Hall. He is the fifth-most efficient player in terms of points per game, seventh-most efficient in terms of points per 60, and is eleventh in NHL scoring with 70 points, 12 behind the leader. However, his team is in a playoff spot, and the gap between him and the second-highest scorer on the New Jersey Devils is 29 points (Hischier, 41 points). Hall is currently on a 23-game personal points streak. Blake Wheeler has, to a lesser extent, been at the forefront of his team's successful season with 73 points while the second-highest scorer on the Jets, Patrik Laine, has 55; the Jets are fifth in the NHL overall standings -- at this point in time, there are clearly four players ahead of him in terms of performance this season, so he would need to elevate his game further to be regarded as a potential finalist.

The scoring race remains volatile, but the four most effective scorers in the league are quite evident this season: Nathan MacKinnon, Evgeni Malkin, Nikita Kucherov, and Taylor Hall.

While the final result of the Art Ross Trophy race might be just as unpredictable, the Hart Trophy race is becoming clearer with each passing day with early favorites already obvious.

Click to read more...

 

[daver]

I really don't get why people think pts/60 has any relevance when discussing high end offensive players.

 

[Blade Paradigm]

I really don't get why people think pts/60 has any relevance when discussing high end offensive players.

A player with better points per 60 production needs fewer opportunities to be effective. That player is more consistent with their production on a per-minute basis and doesn't need to spend as much time on the ice to affect the game's score. This also means that other players can receive more ice time instead, providing those players with more chances to produce and creating more balanced scoring throughout the lineup.

This theoretically boosts team success. It also reflects the efficiency of the player in question, which goes hand-in-hand with the scoring ability of the player. If a player needs fewer opportunities than others to capitalize, then scoring is easier for the player; the easier it is for a player to score, the greater that player is at scoring at that point in time. A player who spends more time on the ice and produces the same result as a player who spends less time on the ice is not the better performer.

In a prediction of who will win the Art Ross Trophy and which players will become the Hart Trophy finalists, it is valuable to look at their rate of production.

 

[daver]

A player with better points per 60 production needs fewer opportunities to be effective. That player is more consistent with their production on a per-minute basis and doesn't need to spend as much time on the ice to affect the game's score. This also means that other players can receive more ice time instead, providing those players with more chances to produce and creating more balanced scoring throughout the lineup.

This theoretically boosts team success. It also reflects the efficiency of the player in question, which goes hand-in-hand with the scoring ability of the player.

There are many examples of elite offensive players who see very little change to their point totals if given more icetime or less icetime. The players with the higher TOI are given it for a reason, and it usually leads to a drop in their pts/60. McDavid's PPG last year in games when he had more than 19 mins per game is a lot lower than his PPG when he was under 19 mins.

It really is not a good metric to rate the effectiveness of players; primarily ones who are relied on heavily to produce their team's offense.

 

[Laineux]

I think all-situations p/60 is a nigh-useless stat considering players play different share of PK, PP and ES minutes.

 

[daver]

I think all-situations p/60 is a nigh-useless stat considering players play different share of PK, PP and ES minutes.

I don't like it because it introduces hypothetical scenarios. It is not as simple as more TOI = more points. If that were the case, why don't the coaches just give them more minutes? Players get specific levels of TOI for a reason.

 

[KarmaPolice]

How about EV points/60? Or just EV point totals. Who are the top 5?

I think coaching has a bigger effect on PP numbers than at EV. PP is a lot about set plays, set zone entries, etc. Quite specific tactics. A great PP coach I think can have a big influential effect on making a dangerous PP. Not to mention needing to have certain players who's skills fit the more rigid formation of play on a PP, such as an effective Dman PP QB, among other players with certain skills that allow a PP to thrive: if you don't have all the pieces the PP likely wont thrive, no matter if there's a superstar on the ice or not. EV is much more nuanced, complex and just plain 'messy' or chaotic, for lack of better terms. Less rigid, let's say; therefore requiring a player of greater skill and ability to be able to produce points. That's my assertion, anyway. Take it or leave it, I suppose.

EDIT: Top 5 EV point producers (totals, not per/60):
1. McDavid: 59 points
2. Kucherov: 52
3. Marchessault: 52
4/5. Gaudreau: 50
4/5. Mackinnon: 50

Interesting. McDavid is outclassing everyone at producing at EV. Odd this was left out. Don't suppose there's any agenda or anything.

 

[Blade Paradigm]

There are many examples of elite offensive players who see very little change to their point totals if given more icetime or less icetime. The players with the higher TOI are given it for a reason, and it usually leads to a drop in their pts/60. McDavid's PPG last year in games when he had more than 19 mins per game is a lot lower than his PPG when he was under 19 mins.

It really is not a good metric to rate the effectiveness of players; primarily ones who are relied on heavily to produce their team's offense.

I've crunched those numbers. In games last season when McDavid received over 20 minutes of TOI, he scored 58 points in 53 games. In games when he received less than 20 minutes of TOI, he scored 42 points in 28 games.

That's not "little change" between the two. He produced at a rate of 1.5 points per game in games with less than 20 minutes of TOI, and plummeted to 1.09 points per game in games with more than 20 minutes of TOI. It seems that the coach was trying to squeeze more offense out of McDavid on nights when he wasn't producing and the team needed more out of him. That could in fact explain why more ice time tends to be given on nights when players do not produce to their usual standard -- they fail to produce, and their team plays from behind, causing the player to be given more TOI to give the team the best chance to win.

From a logical perspective, wouldn't those 28 games be considered his peak performances last seasons, and the lulls in scoring droughts? Not every player becomes worse with more ice time as McDavid did last year.

When those droughts and hot streaks are averaged out, they produce a points per 60 metric. Both the highs and lows of the season are embedded in the number. Those with a higher overall points/60 number have fewer lulls. There is no need to squeeze offense out of the player with extra ice time.

 

[TopT]

I still dont understand how the "Hart Trophy race truly only boils down to four players " includes Hall but not Kopitar

 

[daver]

I've crunched those numbers. In games last season when McDavid received over 20 minutes of TOI, he scored 58 points in 53 games. In games when he received less than 20 minutes of TOI, he scored 42 points in 28 games.

That's not "little change" between the two. He produced at a rate of 1.5 points per game in games with less than 20 minutes of TOI, and plummeted to 1.09 points per game in games with more than 20 minutes of TOI. That seems more like an anomaly than anything else.

From a logical perspective, wouldn't those 28 games be considered his peak performances last seasons, and the lulls in scoring droughts? Not every player becomes worse with more ice time as McDavid did last year.

When those droughts and hot streaks are averaged out, they produce a points per 60 metric.

He got more icetime when his team was behind and it was in the 3rd period where he would be more tired thus he was less effective. That's not an anomaly, that's common sense. I am sure his coach would love to dial back his icetime if he could but he needs his offense.

Rating someone better based on pts/60 is a faulty metric.

 

[Blade Paradigm]

He got more icetime when his team was behind and it was in the 3rd period where he would be more tired thus he was less effective. That's not an anomaly, that's common sense. I am sure his coach would love to dial back his icetime if he could but he needs his offense.

Rating someone better based on pts/60 is a faulty metric.

Has McDavid really been better than the other three players this season? To assess a player's rate of production relative to other players' within a season seems entirely informative.

The coach needs his offense, yet the player produces less overall with more ice time. In McDavid's case, he produced a half-point less on average in games when he played more than 20:00, suggesting he was not scoring at his usual rate. Dialing his ice time back in those games would not have raised his production.

As I suggested above, perhaps the extra ice time is given because the player is not producing and the coach is required to give extra opportunities to the player. In a player's best games, they produce on a more consistent basis and are thus afforded the opportunity to better rest; they might even keep their team ahead of the opposition on the scoreboard. More ice time than usual might mean that a player has not scored and thus needs more chances; it might, in the worst cases, correspond with the team being down on the scoreboard because the player hasn't produced to a sufficient degree. There are some score sheets when the player plays well over 20 minutes of TOI and has zero points that night. Evgeni Malkin and Nathan MacKinnon have had nights like that this season. They obviously don't play that many minutes every game.

 

[daver]

That's not "little change" between the two. He produced at a rate of 1.5 points per game in games with less than 20 minutes of TOI, and plummeted to 1.09 points per game in games with more than 20 minutes of TOI. That seems more like an anomaly than anything else, or the coach was trying to squeeze more offense out of McDavid on nights when he wasn't producing. That could in fact explain why more ice time tends to be given on nights when players do not produce to their usual standard.

I am not talking game to game, I am talking year to year when an increase or decrease in a player's TOI did not change their offensive production very much.

 

[daver]

He needs his offense, yet the player produces less with more ice time.

As I said above, perhaps the extra ice time is given because the player is not producing and the coach is required to give extra opportunities to the player.

I don't think you could be more wrong.

The coach is going to give time to the players that are needed depending on how the game is going, not because they are required to play certain players. If the Oilers are up a bunch, likely because McDavid got some points, then he gets less icetime for the rest of the game. If the Oilers are down, likely because McDavid hasn't got any points, he will get his icetime increased because he is their best offensive weapon.

That's why his PPG is that much higher in games with lower TOI than games with higher TOI. I have no doubt that would be the case for every other high end offensive forward.

 

[VainGretzky]

What the hell does points per 60 have to do with the Hart Trophy ?

 

[avsfan09]

@KarmaPolice Mcdavid has played 8 more games though so I would imagine it wouldn't be quite as dramatic a lead. Mcdavid does have a better even strength PPG though but Mackinnon Is fairly close.

 

[VainGretzky]

@KarmaPolice Mcdavid has played 8 more games though so I would imagine it wouldn't be quite as dramatic a lead. Mcdavid does have a better even strength PPG though but Mackinnon Is fairly close.

McDavid will not win the Hart this season even if he wins scoring race , he maybe most valuable to his team but Oilers are not making playoffs so it would be a insult to other players who are having fantastic seasons , If Colorado makes the Playoffs and MackInnon carries on the pace he is at he will hands down win it and deservedly so . He has 10 game winners and Avs would be nowhere close without him this season. I can See McDavid winning the Lindsey again it's voted on by the players.

 

[Blade Paradigm]

I don't think you could be more wrong.

The coach is going to give time to the players that are needed depending on how the game is going, not because they are required to play certain players. If the Oilers are up a bunch, likely because McDavid got some points, then he gets less icetime for the rest of the game. If the Oilers are down, likely because McDavid hasn't got any points, he will get his icetime increased because he is their best offensive weapon.

That's why his PPG is that much higher in games with lower TOI than games with higher TOI. I have no doubt that would be the case for every other high end offensive forward.

You've actually repeated what I just articulated in that post.

"If the Oilers are up a bunch, likely because McDavid got some points, then he gets less icetime for the rest of the game. Because McDavid hasn't got any points, he will get his icetime increased because he is their best offensive weapon."

When McDavid is not playing his best hockey, he receives more ice time because there is a predisposition to play him based on his reputation as the team's best scorer. When he is playing his best hockey and scoring at will, the team can rest him, usually because they are ahead of the opponent on the score sheet.

Thus, if the TOI is inflated, it is because there are many nights like the ones you've described -- McDavid not scoring, the team consequently struggling on the scoreboard, and the coach overplaying him to squeeze offense out of him. The TOI, consequently inflated, affects Points/60. The higher the Points/60, the fewer of these desperate games the coaches have, usually because the player in question has been productive and the bench can thus be better managed.

If a player can score efficiently and save his team the hassle of playing from behind or relying too much on him to play catch-up, that helps the team. This effect should absolutely be taken into account in a discussion about the league's most valuable players.

 

[daver]

McDavid will not win the Hart this season even if he wins scoring race , he maybe most valuable to his team but Oilers are not making playoffs so it would be a insult to other players who are having fantastic seasons , If Colorado makes the Playoffs and MackInnon carries on the pace he is at he will hands down win it and deservedly so . He has 10 game winners and Avs would be nowhere close without him this season. I can See McDavid winning the Lindsey again it's voted on by the players.

What does ES PPG have to do with the Lindsay?

 

[Nick Hansen]

When is Kucherov expected to be back?

 

[VainGretzky]

What does ES PPG have to do with the Lindsay?

It has nothing to do with it , and it is the trophy that the players in the game vote on and they play against everyone else in the league so the bias like homer journalists that taint the Hart voting is a lot less. It's who the players vote is the best player in the league not most valuable to his team so I can see McDavid winning it again , because he will receive almost every vote from dmen, and I know Daver McDavid's name alone triggers you.

 

[daver]

You've actually repeated what I just articulated in that post.

"If the Oilers are up a bunch, likely because McDavid got some points, then he gets less icetime for the rest of the game. Because McDavid hasn't got any points, he will get his icetime increased because he is their best offensive weapon."

When McDavid is not playing his best hockey, he receives more ice time because there is a predisposition to play him based on his reputation as the team's best scorer. When he is playing his best hockey and scoring at will, the team can rest him, usually because they are ahead of the opponent on the score sheet.

Thus, if the TOI is inflated, it is because there are many nights like the ones you've described -- McDavid not scoring, the team consequently struggling on the scoreboard, and the coach overplaying him to squeeze offense out of him. The TOI, consequently inflated, affects Points/60. The higher the Points/60, the fewer of these desperate games the coaches have, usually because the player in question has been productive and the bench can thus be better managed.

This is utter nonsense. Put McDavid on Tampa or Pittsburgh and there is less of chance his team is behind to the point where he gets overplayed thus his pts/60 would be a lot better.

And anything other than the coach playing McDavid because he has proven to be among the very best offensive players in the league is just silly. A coach would get fired if he didn't put out his best offensive players if his team is behind. Team Russia is famous for this.

 

[Daeni10]

If Colorado makes the playoffs it should be MacKinnon. He is having an unreal season and Colorado pretty much went from worst team in the league to playoff contender within one season. Kucherov and Malkin gonna have a hard time competing against that because they are on such good teams.

McDavid has a great season too but his team isn't even close to playoffs so I have a hard time giving him the hard or even thinking of him for it. This is kinda off topic but since there will be quite a few Oilers fans in this thread and we gonna talk about McDavid a lot anyway, can anyone tell me why he struggles so much with faceoffs? His numbers there are awful and he hasn't really improved during his time in the NHL. (not saying that he wont in the future)

 

[daver]

It has nothing to do with it , and it is the trophy that the players in the game vote on and they play against everyone else in the league so the bias like homer journalists that taint the Hart voting is a lot less. It's who the players vote is the best player in the league not most valuable to his team so I can see McDavid winning it again , because he will receive almost every vote from dmen

Not based on historical voting. It is usually the Hart winner or Hart runner up. Kucherov, Malkin or McKinnon are more worthy at this point. I am sure lots of D-men have noticed Kucherov's and Malkin's effectiveness on the PP, or McDavid's lack of.

 

[VainGretzky]

Not based on historical voting. It is usually the Hart winner or Hart runner up. Kucherov, Malkin or McKinnon are more worthy at this point. I am sure lots of D-men have noticed Kucherov's and Malkin's effectiveness on the PP, or McDavid's lack of.

Well first of all Oilers have the lowest PP in the league s, so when pp 60 is calculated it's not a fair indicator when pp min are added in , it's also very hard to get a PP hot when you get one or 2 chances for half the games in the season Oilers have had over 2 once in last 10 games. Now McDavid has 62 Points at even strength or worse number 1 in the League he has also had Lucic goalless and 2 points in his last 27 games on his wing along with the likes of Slepyshev 5 goals this season and Caggiula . and with all this his sits 3rd in scoring . So don't be surprised if the he wins the Lindsay again . And also again power plays players are at a advantage and many elements go into what makes a good one. Look at Oilers pointmen totals on PP lol. I judge players how they produce on a even playing field, PP are not that.

 

[Blade Paradigm]

This is utter nonsense. Put McDavid on Tampa or Pittsburgh and there is less of chance his team is behind to the point where he gets overplayed thus his pts/60 would be a lot better.

And anything other than the coach playing McDavid because he has proven to be among the very best offensive players in the league is just silly. A coach would get fired if he didn't put out his best offensive players if his team is behind. Team Russia is famous for this.

I see -- you're arguing that McDavid is as good, or better, a player as the others and that the situation he is in is the reason for his bloated TOI and low points/60. Your discussion is about the player quality, not the degree to which he deserves the Hart Trophy.

This is a discussion about the Hart Trophy, the award for the most valuable player in the NHL.

The fact that McDavid plays for the 27th-placed Edmonton Oilers is baked right in to the points/60 metric, which makes it valuable in assessing the player's worthiness of the Hart Trophy.