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Half-Season Awards: Frank J. Selke

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Selke

  • Marner

  • Kopitar

  • Lundell

  • Barkov

  • Lowry

  • Crosby

  • Eichel

  • Stone

  • Staal

  • Matthews

  • Tuch

  • Trocheck

  • Hischier

  • other (who?)

  • Reinhart

  • Aho

  • Draisaitl

Results are only viewable after voting.
Xspyrit said:
Expected goals against don't depend on PDO, goals against do.
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Save percentage is the only element of PDO that impacts goals against.

So for you it's a permanent and unmovable assumption that save percentage is 100% random and has nothing to do with the individuals playing defense in front of a goalie, the goalie's talent, or the coaching scheme?
 
Midnight Judges said:
Save percentage is the only element of PDO that impacts goals against.

So for you it's a permanent and unmovable assumption that save percentage is 100% random and has nothing to do with the individuals playing defense in front of a goalie, the goalie's talent, or the coaching scheme?
Click to expand...

Never said that, just not as dependent on linemates, goalies, etc performance
 
Midnight Judges said:
Sidney Crosby is leading all forwards in 5v5 high danger scoring chances against (161). The 2nd worst defensive forward in the entire NHL has 142.


Crosby is also on pace for the absolute worst even strength goals against season of the past 20 years:

NHL Stats

Crosby has 52 ESGA in 42 games played. That is on pace for 101.5 ESGA this season. The worst season from any forward going back to 2005-2006 is 97:

NHL Stats

Crosby also does not kill penalties (4 seconds per game but the entirety of that is him hopping over the boards after the real penalty killers get the final clear, or empty net situations).
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He is in 12th place in the poll with 2 freaking votes, man Rent Free.
 
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Midnight Judges said:
Save percentage is the only element of PDO that impacts goals against.

So for you it's a permanent and unmovable assumption that save percentage is 100% random and has nothing to do with the individuals playing defense in front of a goalie, the goalie's talent, or the coaching scheme?
Click to expand...

That conclusion doesn’t make any sense. Save percentage isn’t random, which is why a skater shouldn’t be penalized or rewarded based on the abilities of his goaltender. Expected goals isn’t immune to noise, but if you’re trying to assess defensive ability, there’s less noise if you take out goaltending ability.

There’s a lot of variance within a season. Certainly more than only 500 minutes would weed out. If there’s a dramatic difference in the expected numbers and the real numbers then we can try to figure out why that is and if it’s an anomaly or a trend. Someone like Erik Karlsson usually gives up more goals than expected, which suggests that the numbers aren’t accounting for his poor defense. But I think expected numbers are usually the best starting point.
 
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Machinehead said:
The Norris is for the best overall defenseman, so naturally, offense will be a big part of that.

This is purely a defensive award that has a points barrier attached to it.

That's worse.
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It was somewhat tongue in cheek but since Rod Langway in 1983-84, if you can tell me the top 5 point getters among d-men, I can predict the Norris winner with 90% accuracy. If you can tell me the top 2 scorers, I can tell you the Norris winner with 72% accuracy. I am not sure if there is a vote based award that is more predictable based on a single metric? I'd have to take the time to dig in. What I would love to see is if there is a single DEFENSIVE metric that better predicts the Norris winner.
 
Rants Mulliniks said:
It was somewhat tongue in cheek but since Rod Langway in 1983-84, if you can tell me the top 5 point getters among d-men, I can predict the Norris winner with 90% accuracy. If you can tell me the top 2 scorers, I can tell you the Norris winner with 72% accuracy. I am not sure if there is a vote based award that is more predictable based on a single metric? I'd have to take the time to dig in. What I would love to see is if there is a single DEFENSIVE metric that better predicts the Norris winner.
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There isn't a single defensive metric that exists which is foolproof.

I made a long post already about the "scoring leader wins the Norris" thing being overblown:

Is it time to change the name of the trophies awarded?

You can add Quinn Hughes now but I think most people agree that was a good choice.

Granted, the Norris winner is usually somewhere near the top (not 2009 or 2016, just ignore that) but I mean...yes? The best overall defenseman in the NHL is going to be one of the position's better scorers, generally speaking.

I think that fits the parameter more than the Selke which doesn't mention offense at all, and pretty much has a PPG barrier these days.
 
Machinehead said:
There isn't a single defensive metric that exists which is foolproof.

I made a long post already about the "scoring leader wins the Norris" thing being overblown:

Is it time to change the name of the trophies awarded?

You can add Quinn Hughes now but I think most people agree that was a good choice.

Granted, the Norris winner is usually somewhere near the top (not 2009 or 2016, just ignore that) but I mean...yes? The best overall defenseman in the NHL is going to be one of the position's better scorers, generally speaking.

I think that fits the parameter more than the Selke which doesn't mention offense at all, and pretty much has a PPG barrier these days.
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The "tongue in cheek" part was they aren't necessarily bad d-men, just that they are selected with primary merit given to offense, not defense.
 
Lol... Marner leading Draisaitl in this poll just goes to show you how many Homer's exist on this site. Butter soft Marner couldn't hold Leon's Jockstrap at 2 way hockey on his best day. These poll results get dumber and dumber by the week
 
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