Half-Season Awards: Frank J. Selke

[Midnight Judges]

Expected goals against don't depend on PDO, goals against do.

Save percentage is the only element of PDO that impacts goals against.

So for you it's a permanent and unmovable assumption that save percentage is 100% random and has nothing to do with the individuals playing defense in front of a goalie, the goalie's talent, or the coaching scheme?

 

[Xspyrit]

Save percentage is the only element of PDO that impacts goals against.

So for you it's a permanent and unmovable assumption that save percentage is 100% random and has nothing to do with the individuals playing defense in front of a goalie, the goalie's talent, or the coaching scheme?

Never said that, just not as dependent on linemates, goalies, etc performance

 

[Machinehead]

It would be cool to somebody win this whose actual role is defense.

It's become "which elite scorer sucks the least at defending?"

 

[wetcoast]

Sidney Crosby is leading all forwards in 5v5 high danger scoring chances against (161). The 2nd worst defensive forward in the entire NHL has 142.

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

Crosby is also on pace for the absolute worst even strength goals against season of the past 20 years:

NHL Stats

Crosby has 52 ESGA in 42 games played. That is on pace for 101.5 ESGA this season. The worst season from any forward going back to 2005-2006 is 97:

NHL Stats

Crosby also does not kill penalties (4 seconds per game but the entirety of that is him hopping over the boards after the real penalty killers get the final clear, or empty net situations).

He is in 12th place in the poll with 2 freaking votes, man Rent Free.

 

[Regal]

Save percentage is the only element of PDO that impacts goals against.

So for you it's a permanent and unmovable assumption that save percentage is 100% random and has nothing to do with the individuals playing defense in front of a goalie, the goalie's talent, or the coaching scheme?

That conclusion doesn’t make any sense. Save percentage isn’t random, which is why a skater shouldn’t be penalized or rewarded based on the abilities of his goaltender. Expected goals isn’t immune to noise, but if you’re trying to assess defensive ability, there’s less noise if you take out goaltending ability.

There’s a lot of variance within a season. Certainly more than only 500 minutes would weed out. If there’s a dramatic difference in the expected numbers and the real numbers then we can try to figure out why that is and if it’s an anomaly or a trend. Someone like Erik Karlsson usually gives up more goals than expected, which suggests that the numbers aren’t accounting for his poor defense. But I think expected numbers are usually the best starting point.