Habs vs Wings

[RedHawkDown]

Kindda the point im making. "Trend" doesnt mean much. There is 1% chance that Raymond even comes close to being as good as Kucherov, yet he is "trending" better than the russian.

Of course. Again that's true of all players. Habs fans are super excited about Demidov because he's trending much better than pretty much every recent Russian player since Ovechkin/Malkin. However, we all know that trending can turn out to mean nothing and Demidov could have any range of outcome from outright bust to a decent top 6 player to franchise superstar. It's true for every young player, not just Raymond. It just gives you a reason to be excited. That's it.

 

[NikolaTesla]

Where did I act surprised? I simply have disagreed with Habs fans throughout this thread. I would wager your take is just as homer as mine. It's not unreasonable to believe it though.

Im not the one using hyperboles like "trending SIGNIFICANTLY better" or "EASILY". You have homer takes, i don't.

 

[NikolaTesla]

Of course. Again that's true of all players. Habs fans are super excited about Demidov because he's trending much better than pretty much every recent Russian player since Ovechkin/Malkin. However, we all know that trending can turn out to mean nothing and Demidov could have any range of outcome from outright bust to a decent top 6 player to franchise superstar. It's true for every young player, not just Raymond. It just gives you a reason to be excited. That's it.

Yup future is impossible to predict accurately. That's why I focus on the present.

 

[RedHawkDown]

Im not the one using hyperboles like "trending SIGNIFICANTLY better" or "EASILY". You have homer takes, i don't.

OK. Nick Suzuki put up 61 pts in 82 games at Raymond's current age. Raymond will finish with 80-82. To me that is trending significantly better. Not sure what the point of this discussion even is anymore.

 

[RedHawkDown]

Yup future is impossible to predict accurately. That's why I focus on the present.

Totally fair. In that case the teams are pretty fairly matched. Montreal is only a few points ahead of Detroit and a few weeks ago it was reversed; if everyone remains as they are and nobody gets better it could go either way in the future, depending on FA signings etc.

 

[TruePowerSlave]

Habs no doubt.

Once Demidov gets going the team will be really promising.

 

[NikolaTesla]

OK. Nick Suzuki put up 61 pts in 82 games at Raymond's current age. Raymond will finish with 80-82. To me that is trending significantly better. Not sure what the point of this discussion even is anymore.

But Suzuki was playing on literally the worst team of the league that year (finished dead last).

 

[RedHawkDown]

But Suzuki was playing on literally the worst team of the league that year (finished dead last).

OK? Larkin scored 53 in 71 on the 19-20 Wings, which was the worst team in the NHL by a massive margin, and one of the worst teams of the last 20 years. Does he get extra points for this? What about the following year, where Suzuki had 66 points in 82 games, but Montreal was at least 10 points better (still bad)? Obviously guys will score more as the team gets better. Raymond is not immune from this. He also played on some ass Red Wings teams for his first 2 seasons.

The Sharks are about to finish last again and Macklin Celebrini is still having a phenomenal season. It's impossible ot say what would have happened in a different scenario. You are the one that says you like to deal in reality and not hypotheticals. The reality is that Raymond is factually trending statistically better than Suzuki at the same age, and the eye test matches the fact that he has been getting significantly better every single year.

 

[NikolaTesla]

OK? Larkin scored 53 in 71 on the 19-20 Wings, which was the worst team in the NHL by a massive margin, and one of the worst teams of the last 20 years. Does he get extra points for this? What about the following year, where Suzuki had 66 points in 82 games, but

You just don't get it dont you. So youre saying larkin was trending better than plenty of current superstars. How come he didn't become a kucherov or a mackinnon?

Stutzle had 90 points as a 20 years old. How come he isn't even a ppg since?

 

[RedHawkDown]

You just don't get it dont you. So youre saying larkin was trending better than plenty of current superstars. How come he didn't become a kucherov or a mackinnon?

But…he wasn’t. He was never PPG at any point. He wasn’t trending better. He has trended similar to Suzuki has, ie 0.8 PPG to just below PPG . That’s my entire point…..

 

[NikolaTesla]

But…he wasn’t. He was never PPG at any point. He wasn’t trending better. He has trended similar to Suzuki has, ie 0.8 PPG to just below PPG . That’s my entire point…..

So just like Raymond?

 

[HabsMD97]

OK. Nick Suzuki put up 61 pts in 82 games at Raymond's current age. Raymond will finish with 80-82. To me that is trending significantly better. Not sure what the point of this discussion even is anymore.

This has been covered already. They produced at the exact same rate 5v5 with Suzuki playing on the worst team in the league and with worse linemates.

 

[Fledgemyhedge]

Pavel has said it all, but yeah I’ll also add Slaf is looking great - he could definitely end up better than Raymond, I’m not denying that. Funny that MTL fans assume we’re just going to be as hard core homers as them.

Would be very suprised if Slaf ended up being better than raymond

 

[NikolaTesla]

Would be very suprised if Slaf ended up being better than raymond

Me too but he brings things that Raymond doesn't.

 

[Fledgemyhedge]

Me too but he brings things that Raymond doesn't.

It’s nice to have some size on caufield and Suzukis wing

 

[NikolaTesla]

It’s nice to have some size on caufield and Suzukis wing

Yeah perfect compliment to the line.

 

[Pavels Dog]

This is a pointless argument. Slafkovsky have similar number than Mackinnon after 3years so what? Kucherov is near generational and Im ready to bet that Raymond never come close to what Kuch have done during is career

One doesn't need to believe Raymond will progress into what Kucherov became, but you also don't need to make hyperbolic arguments.

Raymond/Kucherov early progression is far more similar than Slafkovsky/Mackinnon, even with Raymond being 1 year younger relatively.

Slafkovsky first 3 years: 108 points in 193 games, 0.56pts/GP
Mackinnon first 3 years: 153 points in 218 games, 0.70pts/GP

Raymond first 3 years: 174 points in 238 games, 0.73pts/GP
Kucherov first 3 years: 149 points in 211 games, 0.71pts/GP

To be clear - I do NOT expect Raymond to reach Kucherov's ceiling. Could he become a consistent 90+ point winger though? I believe that's in the cards.

 

[bud12]

One doesn't need to believe Raymond will progress into what Kucherov became, but you also don't need to make hyperbolic arguments.

Raymond/Kucherov early progression is far more similar than Slafkovsky/Mackinnon, even with Raymond being 1 year younger relatively.

Slafkovsky first 3 years: 108 points in 193 games, 0.56pts/GP
Mackinnon first 3 years: 153 points in 218 games, 0.70pts/GP

Raymond first 3 years: 174 points in 238 games, 0.73pts/GP
Kucherov first 3 years: 149 points in 211 games, 0.71pts/GP

To be clear - I do NOT expect Raymond to reach Kucherov's ceiling. Could he become a consistent 90+ point winger though? I believe that's in the cards.

Again, progression isn't linear. So it's absolutly pointless. Question for you? Do you think Raymond progressed this year at 5v5? Statisticly, he didn't. He's production bump's coming from a red hot pp who's probably not sustainable. Can Raymond become a 90+point winger? Yes he could. Can Suzuki become a 90+ center? Yes he could. Doesn't mean they will do it and I fail to see the "significantly better" because right now, the better player is Suzuki.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Again, progression isn't linear. So it's absolutly pointless. Question for you? Do you think Raymond progressed this year at 5v5? Statisticly, he didn't. He's production bump's coming from a red hot pp who's probably not sustainable. Can Raymond become a 90+point winger? Yes he could. Can Suzuki become a 90+ center? Yes he could. Doesn't mean they will do it and I fail to see the "significantly better" because right now, the better player is Suzuki.

Like I said, the comparison doesn't mean I think he'll progress exctly like Kucherov, but most players who do what Raymond has done as a U23 player go on to become legit star level players.

I think overall, yes, Raymond improved as as a 5v5 player. Points wise? Perhaps not, but I'd chalk that up to the team being an absolute nightmare 5v5, especially under Lalonde. It's also worth noting that you and other Habs fans are very eager to talk about Detroit's "unsustainable" PP or the Wings high shooting % last season.

This year Raymond has an on-ice sh% of just 8.4%, and it's below 7% the last two months.
Even last season, it was below what Suzuki and other Habs players are at right now.