Value of: Habs moving up using the WPG 2024 1st (#26) + CAL/FLA 2025 1st + MTL 2024 3rd + PIT 2025 2nd

[dgibb10]

Those are garbage things that dont move thr needle.

Thatd like saying nhl 24 you can 60 3rd rounders for top 3OA pick

I am a devils fan who would be trading down.

2 late 1sts, and assets worth a 2nd+3rd (I chose beck+evans as my examples) would be enough for me to move off 10 as long as dickinson isn't there.

Historically that valuation lines up

 

[Scintillating10]

I am a devils fan who would be trading down.

2 late 1sts, and assets worth a 2nd+3rd (I chose beck+evans as my examples) would be enough for me to move off 10 as long as dickinson isn't there.

Historically that valuation lines up

Habs be interested in 10. For 2 late first and player worth a 3rd.

 

[slybel]

no..

I dont think the difference between Demidov and one of the other forwards is 3 other 1st round picks and a d prospect

use #5 and trade the others to get a pick in the lower teens and maybe walk away with Iggy and Eiserman or Sennecke

Thats a win imo.

I was being sarcastic. Just tired of 'value of' posts...

But yeah, keep pick #5 and get the best player available.

 

[TBF1972]

Imagine trading all that and CGY/FLA 2025 1st ends up being an 11th overall pick, in exchange for a 10-15 pick. There's no way CGY/FLA pick is getting traded with the presumption it's a low 1st.

honestly i think that's the most likely outcome. calgary remains a bottom 10 team. florida remains a contender. montreal gets the florida pick.

 

[TBF1972]

Again, you're projecting. But please go on. It's amusing.

if you offer a protected pick in a proposal it is always speculative. from either side.

 

[jfhabs]

View attachment 874974

Name 10 teams that have rosters even close to as bad as this. Because Calgary will be selling, and they will be actively incentivized to finish in the bottom 10.

Tell you what, montreals 2025 unprotected 1st for 16th overall because it could basically finish anywhere

Sometimes hockey is played on the ice. Just look at Philly this year, they have an equally bad roster and finish 12th last.

 

[CanadienShark]

if you offer a protected pick in a proposal it is always speculative. from either side.

That particular poster says it's "objectively" 25th overall in 2024. It's not. It's an unknown pick in 2025.

 

[TBF1972]

That particular poster says it's "objectively" 25th overall in 2024. It's not. It's an unknown pick in 2025.

+/-5 picks so a pick in the 20 to 30 range sounds about fair

in the tool he can only enter an exact number and not a range. you could argue also that a pick in the future has less value than a pick for this year. you wouldn't give me one million today, for one million in a year.

 

[CanadienShark]

+/-5 picks so a pick in the 20 to 30 range sounds about fair

in the tool he can only enter an exact number and not a range. you could argue also that a pick in the future has less value than a pick for this year. you wouldn't give me one million today, for one million in a year.

But his "objective" argument was just a load of garbage. It could very well be a top 15 pick. Who knows. If I recall, there is even a crazy scenario where it could be #1 overall in 2026. Florida is going to lose some huge pieces this offseason. I'm not trying to place any value on the pick. I'm saying we do not trade it until we have a clearer idea.

 

[TBF1972]

But his "objective" argument was just a load of garbage. It could very well be a top 15 pick. Who knows. If I recall, there is even a crazy scenario where it could be #1 overall in 2026. Florida is going to lose some huge pieces this offseason. I'm not trying to place any value on the pick. I'm saying we do not trade it until we have a clearer idea.

yeah speculating close to highly unlikely mtl best case scenario is definitely more objective.

enjoy the weekend

 

[CanadienShark]

yeah speculating close to highly unlikely mtl best case scenario is definitely more objective.

enjoy the weekend

No no, I'm not speculating anything at all. I'm saying there are a lot of possibilities. It's not a pick we should be trading until we have a clearer idea of where it might land. You seem to be looking for an argument that I'm not making.

 

[TBF1972]

No no, I'm not speculating anything at all. I'm saying there are a lot of possibilities. It's not a pick we should be trading until we have a clearer idea of where it might land. You seem to be looking for an argument that I'm not making.

you disagreeing with the pick value assigned by a poster other than op.

 

[CanadienShark]

you disagreeing with the pick value assigned by a poster other than op.

Yes. They said it was the 25th overall pick in 2024. It's not. It's an undetermined pick in 2025. Why are you even arguing this? Not to mention the model is fundamentally flawed. You can't equate all picks in different years.

 

[dgibb10]

Sometimes hockey is played on the ice. Just look at Philly this year, they have an equally bad roster and finish 12th last.

And San Jose *could* win the cup next year.

If MTL fans want to put protections on the pick to make themselves sleep better at night, all good.

If MTL fans want to pretend that the future 1st of the team who has had the least valuable 1sts in the last 3 years, is somehow vastly valuable because the magical scenario where a team, actively selling, with no incentive to win, and one of the worst rosters in hockey has everything go right, that it be a being a pick in the 10-16 range, then that is delusion.

Yes. They said it was the 25th overall pick in 2024. It's not. It's an undetermined pick in 2025. Why are you even arguing this? Not to mention the model is fundamentally flawed. You can't equate all picks in different years.

Just because you can't comprehend the concepts of expected values and probabilities doesn't mean that NHL teams also can't

 

[CanadienShark]

If MTL fans want to pretend that the future 1st of the team who has had the least
Just because you can't comprehend the concepts of expected values and probabilities doesn't mean that NHL teams also can't

Nope, again, that's you who can't wrap your head around the different possibilities here or those concepts. THAT is what makes this particular pick not a realistic trade asset right now. Want to tell me more about objectivity? You couldn't even get the correct year because you mistakenly thought it was a fixed position in this draft.

You constantly ignore the fact that not all picks hold the same value year to year. I've said it what twice now, but by your silly idea, you value the 2011 and 2025 1st overall pick the same.

You keep trying to defend your shitty offer. It's bad. That's it, that's all.

 

[dgibb10]

Nope, again, that's you who can't wrap your head around the different possibilities here or those concepts. THAT is what makes this particular pick not a realistic trade asset right now. Want to tell me more about objectivity? You couldn't even get the correct year because you mistakenly thought it was a fixed position in this draft.

You constantly ignore the fact that not all picks hold the same value year to year. I've said it what twice now, but by your silly idea, you value the 2011 and 2025 1st overall pick the same.

You keep trying to defend your shitty offer. It's bad. That's it, that's all.

And yet teams trade future 1sts all the time. They are always a realistic asset. It is very easy to value future picks using math and probabilities.

You are trying to use 1st overall picks as some kind of "gotcha", 1st overall pick is trading for the right to select a specific player. And that specific player can be valued accordingly.

What does get traded quite often are the future 1sts of contenders. In fact it is one of the most commonly traded assets in hockey.

And the value comes from a range. It is the culmination of the value of about 10-15 potential guys it could be

For 2025, 5 contenders 1sts have literally already been traded. Florida's, Colorado's, Vegas, Tampa's, and Toronto's.

 

[CanadienShark]

And yet teams trade future 1sts all the time. They are always a realistic asset. It is very easy to value future picks using math and probabilities.

You are trying to use 1st overall picks as some kind of "gotcha", 1st overall pick is trading for the right to select a specific player. And that specific player can be valued accordingly.

What does get traded quite often are the future 1sts of contenders. In fact it is one of the most commonly traded assets in hockey.

And the value comes from a range. It is the culmination of the value of about 10-15 potential guys it could be

For 2025, 5 contenders 1sts have literally already been traded. Florida's, Colorado's, Vegas, Tampa's, and Toronto's.

They trade their own 1sts and not ones with such complex conditions.

I could choose countless other examples. I chose that one to simplify the concept you seemingly still cannot grasp. Your chart is imperfect.

Again, we are not trading Florida's 1st with certainty. It could be Calgary's.

Ah, you finally admit there is a range and not the 25th pick in 2024? That's a step.

Aaaand that's a step back.


Your offer sucks. Please just stop it. It's a bad offer. We do not accept the offer you seemingly leapt at.

 

[Djp]

I am a devils fan who would be trading down.

2 late 1sts, and assets worth a 2nd+3rd (I chose beck+evans as my examples) would be enough for me to move off 10 as long as dickinson isn't there.

Historically that valuation lines up

You would be fired GM.

 

[DemiGod]

How far can Montreal go up from their second 1st rounder this year (WPG #26) using the following package.

1. WPG 2024 1st (#26)
2. CAL/FLA 2025 1st (Top 10 CAL protected, if CAL finishes inside the top 10 pick becomes FLA).
3. MTL 2024 3rd
4. PIT 2025 2nd

Would a team in the top 15 take that package to go down and pick 26?

pick 18-20

 

[Fatass]

Habs should make sure they get Iginla. That’s the key to this draft for them.

 

[Junohockeyfan]

pick 18-20

Makes zero sense. The probability of a player playing 100+ games in NHL is not that different between picks 17 and 27. Habs are better off drafting with 26 than trying to move up 8 spots.

 

[Djp]

Makes zero sense. The probability of a player playing 100+ games in NHL is not that different between picks 17 and 27. Habs are better off drafting with 26 than trying to move up 8 spots.

View attachment 875630

It's a huge difference between late teens and late 20s on career nhl odds. When you get in the late 20s there is a high mis rate while its much much lower for the teens

 

[Junohockeyfan]

It's a huge difference between late teens and late 20s on career nhl odds. When you get in the late 20s there is a high mis rate while its much much lower for the teens

There is a high mis-rate in the high teens as well. Did you not see the chart?

 

[samsagat]

Calgary/Florida 2025 1st rd pick is actually too much of an unknown quantity to be traded, considering MTL situation.

There's still a fair chance that Calgary's pick could end up just at the frontier of being a top 10 pick. Between 11th and 16th.

And Habs can't take the risk of that happening while in a rebuilding mode.

 

[dgibb10]

Calgary/Florida 2025 1st rd pick is actually too much of an unknown quantity to be traded, considering MTL situation.

There's still a fair chance that Calgary's pick could end up just at the frontier of being a top 10 pick. Between 11th and 16th.

And Habs can't take the risk of that happening while in a rebuilding mode.

Not really. Calgary is absolutely awful. Almost certainly a bottom 5 roster.

And protections would simply come into play if you're that worried about the 3% chance or so of the flames doing decent next year