Speculation: Habs finish 28th and bottom 5 in 24-25 season

[JianYang]

Hutson and Roy might as well be additions. Same with Kirby Dach. And there are others who could join as well. Just because it’s not a UFA doesn’t mean we’re not adding talent.

And yes, I think as a young team, you’ll see improvement as well.


You and I have very different views on this. I’m ecstatic to finally have a group like this. Love the direction and especially so since the previous regime was so bad.

All I can say is, cover you ears. Because you’re going to hear this a lot.


Development was a big part of it. Notice that from 2008 onward we couldn’t develop or draft anymore. Then suddenly from 2019 onward we could… why? Because those players were developed by the new regime.

Development is a broad term, but there's no doubt there was a spell for a long time. At first, some of those teams finished high up the standings or made deep runs which dropped the draft position. But later on, there were high picks and they dropped the ball like galchenyuk and kotkaniemi.

Galchenyuk obviously has bigger demons to handle. Perhaps that bust was unavoidable, but maybe another staff finds some red flags about him away from the rink that Montreal missed on.... who knows.

Kotkaniemi just seems like a reach for need. It's a position that eluded bergevin for his entire tenure.

I'm even being cautious today. I'm glad they have invested more on the development side of things. That's a step in the right direction. Now let's see if they have the right mix of execution and luck.

 

[dackelljuneaubulis02]

Yup. I don't understand how people can say Montreal hasn't upgraded their roster. They've spent three seasons upgrading their prospect pool in a big way – there's no bigger upgrade than that. We're just starting to see the benefits on the ice. If Guhle and Slafkovsky improve, the team improves. If Dach stays healthy, the team improves even more. If Hutson and Mailloux join the PP, there's another upgrade. Newhook, Roy, Harris, Montembeault, Xhekaj – we don't need all to improve, just some.

The best upgrade we could hope for is our existing roster and rookies to develop well. A trade and/or UFA doesn't have nearly the same impact.

Well said.

I’m more than happy to give Roy and Newhook a shot on the 2nd line. Those 2 with Dach could be an excellent second line.

Along with Dach’s health, the other big question mark is Guhle bulking up and staying healthy himself. Those 2 are the big individual question marks.

The blue line itself too. Hutson, Mailloux and RB are knocking at the door which will be good internal competition and could elevate the play of the corps as a whole.

I didn’t pay enough attention to the moves in our division to make any serious projections but 2 years ago I saw this season as the transition year where we turn into a bubble team. Don’t know if that still holds as it might be another year but I could see us looking encouragingly improved.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Development is a broad term, but there's no doubt there was a spell for a long time. At first, some of those teams finished high up the standings or made deep runs which dropped the draft position. But later on, there were high picks and they dropped the ball like galchenyuk and kotkaniemi.

Galchenyuk obviously has bigger demons to handle. Perhaps that bust was unavoidable, but maybe another staff finds some red flags about him away from the rink that Montreal missed on.... who knows.

Kotkaniemi just seems like a reach for need. It's a position that eluded bergevin for his entire tenure.

I'm even being cautious today. I'm glad they have invested more on the development side of things. That's a step in the right direction. Now let's see if they have the right mix of execution and luck.

Galchenyuk was never going to be a superstar but he had talent. They worked hard to stunt it. It was absolutely terrible how they “managed” him.

Kk in retrospect was a bad pick. We also put him straight to the NHL (where he played well) and then inexplicably benched him. Another terrible case of mismanagement- but you’re correct, that was a bad pick.

Look at what happened after that, all of a sudden our picks (including Timmins’) started panning out again. I knew it would happen and said so years ago.

And yeah, it sure would be nice to get some luck. Health being number one.

 

[montreal]

Even if we're drafting Top 5, there will be some very good players available.

maybe, not sold on that yet. Martone looks like the 1st OA so far.

 

[Goal Caufield50]

Yeah watching Hutson Dach Suzuki Caufield Xhekaj Guhle Newhook is gonna be very painfull!!! Im gonna miss the years we had Desharnais as our first line center and the team's first scorer had 55pts!!! But hey, we were making the playoffs and anything could have happened, i guess......

Bottom five , 4 years in a row. That is pain by any measure

 

[Simarino]

Bottom five , 4 years in a row. That is pain by any measure

beeing mid and boring for 30 yrs was agony!! Of course, its a rebuild of course theres gonna be pain, but the team is going in a very promising direction and i rather suffer one more year then try to cut corners and get stuck in the the middle like the Wings

 

[Andrei79]

I would be surprised if the team finished bottom 5 if the team is healthy. I think they'll have very high compete which will help them overachieve.

 

[Tyson]

I would be surprised if the team finished bottom 5 if the team is healthy. I think they'll have very high compete which will help them overachieve.

Yeah a healthy Habs team will not be close to bottom 5. They will play meaningful games to the trade deadline

 

[ChesterNimitz]

Yeah a healthy Habs team will not be close to bottom 5. They will play meaningful games to the trade deadline

With their mobile defence and excellent top line, if the Canadiens continue to receive above average goaltending and enjoy a modicum of health this year, they should be among a handful of improving Eastern Conference teams who will be scrambling for a playoff position.

 

[Beer and Chips]

With Dach as the only significant roster change I just don't see the expectations for improved goals against. Organic growth for third pairing defensemen?

 

[Kents polished head]

I'm amazed by how many people here actually have nothing better to do in the evening than watch a bad hockey team lose hockey games.

There's literally no chance I waste my time watching any more than one game a week of that shit.

Literally nothing to look forward to and what's even worse is the amount of fans who got complacent about it and even go great lengths making themselves believe sitting on your hands and doing nothing all summer is somehow a masterclass of management.

This is a horrible hockey team. Top to bottom. We're a one line team one injury away from being favorites to get the 1st overall pick. 4 years into the rebuild.

 

[26Mats]

I'm amazed by how many people here actually have nothing better to do in the evening than watch a bad hockey team lose hockey games.

There's literally no chance I waste my time watching any more than one game a week of that shit.

Literally nothing to look forward to and what's even worse is the amount of fans who got complacent about it and even go great lengths making themselves believe sitting on your hands and doing nothing all summer is somehow a masterclass of management.

This is a horrible hockey team. Top to bottom. We're a one line team one injury away from being favorites to get the 1st overall pick. 4 years into the rebuild.

Rebuilds take time. I'd rather have a top 5 pick again than just make it into the first round and lose easily.

 

[WeThreeKings]

Rebuilds take time. I'd rather have a top 5 pick again than just make it into the first round and lose easily.

We just completed year 3 of what will be a 5-8 year rebuild. Anyone expecting more was always going to be disappointed because they didn't have a realistic understanding of the rebuild process and how long it takes.

5 years is best case scenario to be a consistent playoff team out of a rebuild. That's best case. Most rebuilds are not best case.

 

[V13]

Galchenyuk was never going to be a superstar but he had talent. They worked hard to stunt it. It was absolutely terrible how they “managed” him.

While he had off ice issues the musical chair game with him was bad for his development. One game he was cventering the first libe then the game after he was a winger on the 4th , the game after that he ended up as a winger on the 3rd and then back on the 1st but on the wings only to be put back on the 4th a few games later etc etc etc

It was brutal juggling by Therrien and co

 

[morhilane]

Rebuilds take time. I'd rather have a top 5 pick again than just make it into the first round and lose easily.

Teams in a rebuild don't go from bottom 5 to a constant playoffs spot. They are supposed to become a bubble team before they become a playoff contender.

The team might squeeze into the playoffs soon, but the young Ds aren't mature enough and still too much floatsam among the forwards. Until then, they won't get very far.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Teams in a rebuild don't go from bottom 5 to a constant playoffs spot. They are supposed to become a bubble team before they become a playoff contender.

The team might squeeze into the playoffs soon, but the young Ds aren't mature enough and still too much floatsam among the forwards. Until then, they won't get very far.

I don’t think we make the playoffs this year. But I think the following players will join the club at some point: Roy, Hutson, Beck, Mailloux and maybe RB.

That’s a crazy amount of talent to add. And if they’re not here this year, they’ll be here the following season.

No, we probably won’t make the playoffs. I think you’re right, the D is too green. But I think our offense will be better. I think we’ll surprise some people who are forecasting us as the worst team in the league. We will improve but people need to be realistic. We will be one of the youngest teams in the league.

It’s a development year. A necessary step towards future success. People need to stay patient.

 

[Spring in Fialta]

We just completed year 3 of what will be a 5-8 year rebuild. Anyone expecting more was always going to be disappointed because they didn't have a realistic understanding of the rebuild process and how long it takes.

5 years is best case scenario to be a consistent playoff team out of a rebuild. That's best case. Most rebuilds are not best case.

This post is complete bullshit.

The Senators aren't even at year 8 and you (among others) are always talking about how bad they are and how they didn't work. Rightfully so.

If someone can point to me to a 5+ year rebuild that was successful, I'm all ears. Not even purposeful tankers like Pittsburgh and Washington rebuilt for that long.

What a crock of shit you've just spewed. Most current contenders didn't even go through traditional rebuilds at all.

 

[LaP]

With Dach as the only significant roster change I just don't see the expectations for improved goals against. Organic growth for third pairing defensemen?

So all of Renbacher, Hutson and Mailloux will play in the AHL. One of them wont play enough. If none of them is in the NHL i'll be extremely surprised and they are all an upgrade over Honda Civic. Pretty much all our forwards are also young enough to progress.

Slaf 20.
Caufield 23.
Dach 23.
Newhook 23.

Only Suzuki is starting to be old enough to be considered wysiwyg,

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

This post is complete bullshit.

The Senators aren't even at year 8 and you (among others) are always talking about how bad they are and how they didn't work. Rightfully so.

If someone can point to me to a 5+ year rebuild that was successful, I'm all ears. Not even purposeful tankers like Pittsburgh and Washington rebuilt for that long.

What a crock of shit you've just spewed. Most current contenders didn't even go through traditional rebuilds at all.

????

Chicago and LA just off the top of my head took around five years. And yeah the Pens were quicker but they had a generational player and a just below generational player to build on. Washington had a generational player as well.

 

[Spring in Fialta]

????

Chicago and LA just off the top of my head took around five years. And yeah the Pens were quicker but they had a generational player and a just below generational player to build on.

Chicago was actively trying to win as they drafted Toews and Kane. They signed Khabibulin and Aucoin to big money contracts and traded futures for Martin Havlat the year after. They were shooting make the playoffs. I remember that era well.

If the argument is that it can take 5 years between a team bottoms out and wins a cup (i.e. LA) that's one thing. If the argument is that it can take 5-8 years between bottoming out and competing again, that's just not true unless the team has made numerous mistakes along the way (i.e. Ottawa).

 

[Captain Mountain]

Teams in a rebuild don't go from bottom 5 to a constant playoffs spot. They are supposed to become a bubble team before they become a playoff contender.

The team might squeeze into the playoffs soon, but the young Ds aren't mature enough and still too much floatsam among the forwards. Until then, they won't get very far.

Maybe not if there's a specific hard cut off at bottom 5, but teams go from basement/rebuild/bottom 5 or 10 to constant playoffs/contender all the time. It depends on the team situation.

Lets at the cap era cup winners. Florida had a slow shift from bottom dweller to playoff team. Vegas has missed the playoffs once and that was the season before they won the cup. Colorado was rebuilding on and off until 2016-2017 (worst record in the NHL) and hasn't missed the playoffs since. Apart from a cursed 2016-2017 season, Tampa hasn't missed the playoffs since they drafted Drouin 3rd OA. St. Louis didn't traditionally rebuild. Washington made the playoffs immediately after drafting Alzner 5th in 2007(3rd worst record), and only missed it once in 2013-2014 before winning a cup in 2018. After drafting Jordan Staal 2nd OA in 2006, Pittsburgh didn't miss the playoffs from 2006-2007 until the bubble playoffs, winning 3 cups. Chicago did take a season from bottoming out before becoming a playoff regular, but LA was 5th worst in the NHL in 2008-2009 (drafting Schenn) and then made the playoffs every season until after they won their 2nd cup. Boston had a gradual and quick rise to playoff team from 2005-2006, but never really rebuilt. Detroit is a special case because it stretches into the era where most teams made the playoffs, but they finished bottom 5 in 1982 and from 1983 to 2016 they missed the playoffs twice, both times being bottom 5 finishes. Carolina had a rapid rise to win in 2006, but they also made the Cup finals the year before they drafted Staal 2nd OA in 2003. Even the Ducks had a quick rise back to relevancy.

Even looking beyond those edge cases, teams go from the bottom to playoff contender constantly. So they aren't supposed to become a bubble team before they become a playoff contender. They're supposed to rebuild to become a playoff team and contender, and the process has to be focused on achieving that primarily.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Chicago was actively trying to win as they drafted Toews and Kane.

Who cares?

Teams unintentionally rebuild with high picks sometimes. It still took them five years. While they consistently drafted high.

They signed Khabibulin and Aucoin to big money contracts and traded futures for Martin Havlat the year after. They were shooting make the playoffs. I remember that era well.

See above.

If the argument is that it can take 5 years between a team bottoms out and wins a cup (i.e. LA) that's one thing. If the argument is that it can take 5-8 years between bottoming out and competing again, that's just not true unless the team has made numerous mistakes along the way (i.e. Ottawa).

Five years is pretty standard. It took Tampa a long time to regularly start making the playoffs too. Much longer than five years.

I’m not sure why you’re so bent out of shape on this. When you start a rebuild you have to assume it’ll be five years minimum before seeing success. Obviously the timeline changes if you’re lucky or unlucky. Getting Crosby/Malkin was pretty freaking lucky.

Hardly something to blast someone over this.

 

[LaP]

This post is complete bullshit.

The Senators aren't even at year 8 and you (among others) are always talking about how bad they are and how they didn't work. Rightfully so.

If someone can point to me to a 5+ year rebuild that was successful, I'm all ears. Not even purposeful tankers like Pittsburgh and Washington rebuilt for that long.

What a crock of shit you've just spewed. Most current contenders didn't even go through traditional rebuilds at all.

Point me to a rebuild that was done in less than 3 years?

Pens : rebuild started in 2003 with Marc-André Fleury drafted 1st overall and they made the playoffs for the first time in 2006-2007. Took them 4 years to make the playoffs and they were booted out of them in 5 games.

Caps : drafted Ovy in 2004 and made the playoffs for the 1st time in 2007-2008 booted out in the first round like the pens. Again 4 years just to make the playoffs. More for a deep run.

We drafted Slaf in 2022 so to be at the same pace as the pens and caps we would need to make the playoffs in 2025-2026 (not this year but next) and be booted out in the 1st round which is not impossible at all.

People still mix MB and KH and act like if it was the same management. JK is not here anymore (and we lost draft power to replace him by Dvorak) and Mailloux was a 31st overall pick. The rebuild started with Slaf in 2022 whatever it fits some fans narrative or not. Expecting a rebuild to be done in only 3 drafts and only 2 seasons is stupid af and 120% unrealistic.

 

[WeThreeKings]

Who cares?

Teams unintentionally rebuild with high picks sometimes. It still took them five years. While they consistently drafted high.

See above.

Five years is pretty standard. It took Tampa a long time to regularly start making the playoffs too. Much longer than five years.

I’m not sure why you’re so bent out of shape on this. When you start a rebuild you have to assume it’ll be five years minimum before seeing success.

Hardly something to blast someone over this.

I did the math and it's 5-8 years so if anyone wants to panty twist about it, they can, but they're wrong.

 

[Spring in Fialta]

Who cares?

Teams unintentionally rebuild with high picks sometimes. It still took them five years. While they consistently drafted high.

See above.

Five years is pretty standard. It took Tampa a long time to regularly start making the playoffs too. Much longer than five years.

I’m not sure why you’re so bent out of shape on this. When you start a rebuild you have to assume it’ll be five years minimum before seeing success. Obviously the timeline changes if you’re lucky or unlucky. Getting Crosby/Malkin was pretty freaking lucky.

Hardly something to blast someone over this.

What do you mean who cares? Context clearly matters if someone is going to say 'people who expected something don't understand how rebuild works'.

If you're going to use Chicago as an example, pointing out they actively acquired expensive veterans while rebuilding
(which WTK is saying you shouldn't do in a rebuild and people don't understand how a rebuild works if they want that) is CLEARLY something that should be pointed out.

Also, a team like LA largely got their cups specifically by trading their prospects for veteran players in Richards and Carter.