Speculation: Habs finish 28th and bottom 5 in 24-25 season

[TesseractPrice]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1809252496851738920

I'm not a huge fan of JFresh's models, but I thought this was interesting that he projects us to finish 31st in the league next year.

I disagree tbh, but it's not out of the question.

It could happen, but I feel this model undervalues goaltending. Montembeault is a good tender, he’ll steal some games while the terrible teams often have terrible goalies who will lose them some

Also it’s less flashy, but they could add some intervals or range or something to their prediction. A roster like Nashville should carry a huge amount of variability in the predicted outcome considering the turnover while the Rangers should have a smaller one

 

[Saundies]

Fact is, the Habs have done nothing to improve the roster that was bottom five last year, so why should it be any different this year? They're hoping every player takes a step forward and the collective improves to the point where they take the next step. It's plausible but improbable. Management said they want to be more competitive this year and are banking on the players they have to grow and take the next step. They tried to nab Marchessault and the summer is still relatively early so there is time for changes but as of today there is nothing to really grasp on to other than "vibes."

What's funny to me is that the media have all been like "this roster is going to be so different."

We'll see.

It's improbable that all will take the next step but also improbable that none will. If Suzuki maintains, Caufield takes a step, and Slaf maintains even, that's good enough for an extra couple of wins. Dach is like getting a new player, and having Newhook not be hurt for most of the season helps, too.

If this team is old af and we did like nothing to improve (think Pittsburgh) then we're in trouble. I just can't see us finishing similar to last year.

 

[WinterLion]

I hope the team is competitive but I fully expect to be sellers at the deadline and get a top 10 pick.... it's a big year for the rebuild. probably the last year as full sellers.

 

[TesseractPrice]

It's based on advanced stats and has zero consideration for still improving players.

It’s nice for intraseason predictions, but becomes more iffy for interseason ones

Players aren’t monoliths; hockey essentialism is not real. It’s especially true for injuries, the Panthers played over 200 games in two seasons, the toll is about to begin for their core players, especially Barkov. It did for the Bolts

Season averages are a bit lazy too for advanced stats. Upward and downward trends should be considered too, like Slaf for example

 

[Bacchus1]

Fact is, the Habs have done nothing to improve the roster that was bottom five last year, so why should it be any different this year? They're hoping every player takes a step forward and the collective improves to the point where they take the next step. It's plausible but improbable. Management said they want to be more competitive this year and are banking on the players they have to grow and take the next step. They tried to nab Marchessault and the summer is still relatively early so there is time for changes but as of today there is nothing to really grasp on to other than "vibes."

What's funny to me is that the media have all been like "this roster is going to be so different."

We'll see.

Dach will be back, yonger players will improve, and the chances to trade or sign still exist.

I liked how we conpeted last year. I think we will compete even more next season and we will miss the playoffs and have another shot at a top 10 talent in the next draft.

Should be a fun ride if you manage expectations. Lol

 

[Halakitlikethat]

Dach hasn’t proven much in this league but he’s gonna come back from a serious injury and drive a second line by himself? I would love to see it but personally I’m not expecting anything from him.

 

[FrankMTL]

Funny enough, because of the fact we managed to draft a potentially game breaking forward, I think I would be able to stomach one more bottom 5 finish.....especially if we can get our hands on another top line talent or top pairing defenseman.

 

[Lshap]

It's improbable that all will take the next step but also improbable that none will. If Suzuki maintains, Caufield takes a step, and Slaf maintains even, that's good enough for an extra couple of wins. Dach is like getting a new player, and having Newhook not be hurt for most of the season helps, too.

If this team is old af and we did like nothing to improve (think Pittsburgh) then we're in trouble. I just can't see us finishing similar to last year.

Yup. I don't understand how people can say Montreal hasn't upgraded their roster. They've spent three seasons upgrading their prospect pool in a big way – there's no bigger upgrade than that. We're just starting to see the benefits on the ice. If Guhle and Slafkovsky improve, the team improves. If Dach stays healthy, the team improves even more. If Hutson and Mailloux join the PP, there's another upgrade. Newhook, Roy, Harris, Montembeault, Xhekaj – we don't need all to improve, just some.

The best upgrade we could hope for is our existing roster and rookies to develop well. A trade and/or UFA doesn't have nearly the same impact.

 

[Lshap]

Dach hasn’t proven much in this league but he’s gonna come back from a serious injury and drive a second line by himself? I would love to see it but personally I’m not expecting anything from him.

Personally, Dach struck me as having 1C potential. I love what I saw in the short time he played and think he could have a major impact. But until he proves he can play full seasons, it's fair to be cautious.

 

[Lebowski]

I'd be happy with one last bottom 5 finish. I like the overall depth of our prospect pool at this point, but one more high end talent anywhere in the line-up would give us good insurance that the rebuild won't go down the drain if one or two of our current high ranking prospects don't meet expectations.

I think the 2025-2026 is when we need to start making moves to make the playoffs. We'll have to make the transition on defense from Matheson/Savard at some point within the next 2 years too since they won't be there when this core is ready to compete. Hopefully, we'll make some steps in that direction this year.

 

[Spring in Fialta]

More than his potential, I'm wary of just boom, expecting Dach to step in game 1 ready to carry an entire line after a year off due to a big injury to his knee. Kid's awesome but I don't like putting that pressure on him right off the bat.

 

[Gustave]

Which is fine don't think we need more top 10. What we need to Calgary to draft 11th and us between 12th and 15th.

We need them to be the Flyers of the 24-25 season.

 

[Cournoyer12]

Some teams have to sign player to stay relevant because their core is aging and declining.

I think TB and Bos did good job rejuvenating themselves. Toronto short term its good but after next year is a mystery.

Many of our growth will come from within and we can only speculate as to how good we will be.

Dach, Slafkovsky, Caufield, Hutson, Reinbacher and/or Mailloux all holds the key to next season.

If Mailloux is a top 4D and Hutson and Dach are as good as they ve shown in two f***ing game, we are absolutely not finishing bottom 5.

Honestly, we aren't that far from teams like the Islanders, Washington and these are teams that made the playoff. I would even argue we are on the verge of surpassing them. Even Carolina.

Washington is all of new faces but what they did is f***ing mid. They acquired mid talent/other teams garbage with a bit of upside but there is no upper tier talent anymore in this team, yet some would argue they dodged an inevitable rebuild. IMO, they only prolonged their midness for another mid term.

Caps added a lot of age

 

[red devil]

To me to have Dach stay healthy for an entire year is a massive question mark. Since he turned pro he has never played more than 70 games and he has had two severe injuries so far. I can't expect him to play more than 60 games this season until he proves he can stay healthy for a full season. I'm not sure if they will finish in the bottom 5, I do see them finishing in the bottom 10.

 

[Le Barron de HF]

To me to have Dach stay healthy for an entire year is a massive question mark. Since he turned pro he has never played more than 70 games and he has had two severe injuries so far. I can't expect him to play more than 60 games this season until he proves he can stay healthy for a full season. I'm not sure if they will finish in the bottom 5, I do see them finishing in the bottom 10.

It's definitely concerning but here is a list of players that had trouble getting healthy who still managed to produce their best seasons or at least very productive ones after some serious injuries: Tarasenko, Vilardi, Schwartz, Hall, RNH, Palat, Forsberg, Nichushkin, Arvidsson. There is still hope.

 

[overlords]

Yup. I don't understand how people can say Montreal hasn't upgraded their roster. They've spent three seasons upgrading their prospect pool in a big way – there's no bigger upgrade than that. We're just starting to see the benefits on the ice. If Guhle and Slafkovsky improve, the team improves. If Dach stays healthy, the team improves even more. If Hutson and Mailloux join the PP, there's another upgrade. Newhook, Roy, Harris, Montembeault, Xhekaj – we don't need all to improve, just some.

The best upgrade we could hope for is our existing roster and rookies to develop well. A trade and/or UFA doesn't have nearly the same impact.

plus Joel Armia on an expiring deal is like harnessing the power of a small sun. I'm not worried.

 

[Simarino]

and 82 pain full games

Yeah watching Hutson Dach Suzuki Caufield Xhekaj Guhle Newhook is gonna be very painfull!!! Im gonna miss the years we had Desharnais as our first line center and the team's first scorer had 55pts!!! But hey, we were making the playoffs and anything could have happened, i guess......

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

I'd be happy with one last bottom 5 finish. I like the overall depth of our prospect pool at this point, but one more high end talent anywhere in the line-up would give us good insurance that the rebuild won't go down the drain if one or two of our current high ranking prospects don't meet expectations.

I think the 2025-2026 is when we need to start making moves to make the playoffs. We'll have to make the transition on defense from Matheson/Savard at some point within the next 2 years too since they won't be there when this core is ready to compete. Hopefully, we'll make some steps in that direction this year.

You may get your wish. I don’t think we’re making the playoffs. I don’t expect it but we could finish low.

I think we’ll do better than that but if we have injuries it could happen.

 

[austin316]

Imagine we will be bottom 5 again. Hopefully this is the last of our tanking experience!

 

[FrankMTL]

Imagine we will be bottom 5 again. Hopefully this is the last of our tanking experience!

Honestly, if we luck out and have the chance to draft a player like Porter Martone....we would be set.

Slafkovsky Suzuki Demidov
Caufield Dach Martone
Newhook Hage Roy
Xhekaj Beck Kapanen

 

[montreal]

Honestly, if we luck out and have the chance to draft a player like Porter Martone....we would be set.

Slafkovsky Suzuki Demidov
Caufield Dach Martone
Newhook Hage Roy
Xhekaj Beck Kapanen

winning 1st OA again would clearly speed up the rebuild.

 

[FrankMTL]

winning 1st OA again would clearly speed up the rebuild.

Even if we're drafting Top 5, there will be some very good players available.

 

[Le Tricolore]

As a sidenote,

It’s really nice to be able to have a debate as to whether or not we should use a great prospect or grab a vet to play on the second line. This is so vastly different from a “why did we make this stupid trade” or “why are we mismanaging things so badly” type discussions we’ve had here for so long.

Finally, we have an upcoming team where mgmt is working to build from the ground up and actively working to plug holes where they see issues.

Whether we should get a vet or not is a refreshing change of pace here given the context of where we’re at. So much better than “why did we have Desharnais on our first line?” type discussions.

It's definitely nice having a team actually build through the draft as opposed to having a team who insists that they want to build through the draft and then failing to develop any player into a difference maker once they turn pro.

 

[JianYang]

It's definitely nice having a team actually build through the draft as opposed to having a team who insists that they want to build through the draft and then failing to develop any player into a difference maker once they turn pro.

Something happened after 2008. The habs were doing a good job of building though the draft for a stretch, and balancing that with their vets. 2007 was huge with subban, pacioretty, and McDonagh, but I think they also had emelin from 2006, price from 2005, and A.Kostitsyn was coming off a good year. Sergei Kostitsyn looked to be a slam dunk, and grabovski was there too. Markov was just entering his prime years as well as plekanec. Higgins was still in his mid 20s.

Then everything halted aside from the odd pick like Gallagher.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Fact is, the Habs have done nothing to improve the roster that was bottom five last year, so why should it be any different this year?

Hutson and Roy might as well be additions. Same with Kirby Dach. And there are others who could join as well. Just because it’s not a UFA doesn’t mean we’re not adding talent.

And yes, I think as a young team, you’ll see improvement as well.

Honestly, the constant reminders about how our management is oh so competent is slowly getting nauseating.

You and I have very different views on this. I’m ecstatic to finally have a group like this. Love the direction and especially so since the previous regime was so bad.

All I can say is, cover you ears. Because you’re going to hear this a lot.

Something happened after 2008. The habs were doing a good job of building though the draft for a stretch, and balancing that with their vets. 2007 was huge with subban, pacioretty, and McDonagh, but I think they also had emelin from 2006, price from 2005, and A.Kostitsyn was coming off a good year. Sergei Kostitsyn looked to be a slam dunk, and grabovski was there too. Markov was just entering his prime years as well as plekanec. Higgins was still in his mid 20s.

Then everything halted aside from the odd pick like Gallagher.

Development was a big part of it. Notice that from 2008 onward we couldn’t develop or draft anymore. Then suddenly from 2019 onward we could… why? Because those players were developed by the new regime.