Value of: Habs 25th 1st (Lottery Protected) & Jets 24th 1st (26th)

[Habs Halifax]

Looking for another pick in this draft (8-13 range). Any interest?

Click to read more...

 

[dgibb10]

Looking for another pick in this draft (8-13 range). Any interest?

Would probably be more convoluted conditions on the 25 pick, such as top 12 protected, with the potential to transfer into either the florida pick, or the 2026 1st

 

[Habs Halifax]

Would probably be more convoluted conditions on the 25 pick, such as top 12 protected, with the potential to transfer into either the florida pick, or the 2026 1st

Flames 1st is connected to the Panthers pick yes. That could be in the mix vs the Habs pick.

I'm comfortable with offering either but with the Habs pick, it has to have lottery protection. I am personally am OK with not doing top 10 or top 12 protected. You got to dangle something for the teams in the 8-13 range to do it. Most would agree the Habs pick next year will be in the 8-15 range. We are going to move up slightly but no playoffs.

Could end up being
* 8-15th OA in 2025
* 26th OA in 2024
for
* 8-13 OA in 2024.

I'm OK with being a bit aggressive to get a 2nd dart in this draft. That would put the range from the guys we take in this draft to Suzuki at 7 years.

 

[Stewie Griffin]

I get your idea here...just don't see a team that would do this. You're basically asking someone to push their current 8-13 overall selection this year to get an 8-13 overall selection next year. That pushes a team back a whole year in their rebuild/development for only a late 1st in a weaker 1st round.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I get your idea here...just don't see a team that would do this. You're basically asking someone to push their current 8-13 overall selection this year to get an 8-13 overall selection next year. That pushes a team back a whole year in their rebuild/development for only a late 1st in a weaker 1st round.

Depends on a team's direction and their rebuild strategy. Yes, it's pushing this years pick into next year but getting an extra pick later in this draft (26th). This is not just some small add.

You don't know if it's "weaker" next year. I've seen fans focus on this over and over again and it's just wrong. You go look at the movement that happened in this draft from Sept-April. The draft year plays a huge factor in what is deep and what is not deep. I still can't believe how some fans have not clued into this yet.

 

[featherhawk]

nobody will do that...it makes zero sense

 

[Habs Halifax]

nobody will do that...it makes zero sense

Zero sense to add another late 1st while still having a pick in the 8-15 range next draft? Sorry, there is more to this than your "zero sense" reach in exaggeration. If you have to exaggerate, you don't have a good point.

But if teams from 8-13 like their targets, it's fair that they prefer not to trade it (even if it adds a late 1st to their draft power).

You know there is a possibility that the Habs fall flat again next year. I have it lottery protected but it could be another pick from 5-10. You tell me where the Habs finish next season?

 

[Stewie Griffin]

Depends on a team's direction and their rebuild strategy. Yes, it's pushing this years pick into next year but getting an extra pick later in this draft (26th). This is not just some small add.

You don't know if it's "weaker" next year. I've seen fans focus on this over and over again and it's just wrong. You go look at the movement that happened in this draft from Sept-April. The draft year plays a huge factor in what is deep and what is not deep. I still can't believe how some fans have not clued into this yet.

I never commented on next year being weaker. This year is weaker, especially around the 26th pick which you are using to entice a team to shoot their pick back a whole year. Maybe at 8 overall next year there is a guy who is better than 8 overall this year, but most teams would rather have their guy sooner. Look at NJD for example in the 10 spot, or BUF at 11, ideally they're in the playoffs next year, so that late 1st really does nothing for them. They'd much rather draft someone this year who would be 1 year closer to joining their team.

There's also the slight chance Montreal does make the playoffs/just miss and drafts in the 15-20 range next year. Why would another team risk that for just 26th overall?

 

[Habs Halifax]

I never commented on next year being weaker. This year is weaker, especially around the 26th pick which you are using to entice a team to shoot their pick back a whole year. Maybe at 8 overall next year there is a guy who is better than 8 overall this year, but most teams would rather have their guy sooner. Look at NJD for example in the 10 spot, or BUF at 11, ideally they're in the playoffs next year, so that late 1st really does nothing for them. They'd much rather draft someone this year who would be 1 year closer to joining their team.

There's also the slight chance Montreal does make the playoffs/just miss and drafts in the 15-20 range next year. Why would another team risk that for just 26th overall?

Sorry, I don't believe in weak drafts before the draft is done. I've seen many drafts that were considered deep that ended up meh and vice versa. I don't buy this narrative one bit. Every teams draft board is different.

You think the Habs have a chance at making the playoffs next year? I don't. I expect some movement up but not sure how much.

No problem. You as a Sharks fan don't like the idea. It's OK but it's not a terrible dangle for the Habs to make. Probably the best one yet for us to get another dart from 8-13 range. OH, BTW, Sharks have the 14th pick. I'm looking for a pick from 8-13 so even if you said yes, it's declined.

 

[Habs Halifax]

@Grinner. What you laughing at punk? This is humor BTW

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Zero chance anyone even conaiders this.

 

[Stewie Griffin]

Sorry, I don't believe in weak drafts before the draft is done. I've seen many drafts that were considered deep that ended up meh and vice versa. I don't buy this narrative one bit. Every teams draft board is different.

You think the Habs have a chance at making the playoffs next year? I don't. I expect some movement up but not sure how much.

No problem. You as a Sharks fan don't like the idea. It's OK but it's not a terrible dangle for the Habs to make. Probably the best one yet for us to get another dart from 8-13 range. OH, BTW, Sharks have the 14th pick. I'm looking for a pick from 8-13 so even if you said yes, it's declined.

A) You started this thread and asked for interest, I have given you reasons as to why teams wouldn't have interest. And even used examples like NJD and BUF. Yes I am a Sharks fan, but have not commented from a sharks perspective. You are asking for a team in that 8-13 range, but I wouldn't even do it for the 14th pick....so good luck then.

B) No I don't think the Habs make the playoffs next year. They're in a very difficult division and that alone gives them a tough road. As I did say though, "there is a slight chance Montreal makes the playoffs/just misses", which would make this trade look even worse for the team accepting it. Not saying they're going to be a cup contender, but even you said you expect them to improve, and if they can improve more than you expect, they could be drafting 15-20.

C) This is not the first thread where...again you started....and then have debated criticism/reasons as to why your value is off. I am just trying to give reason as to why I don't think the value is there for the other team to consider.

 

[Habs Halifax]

A) You started this thread and asked for interest, I have given you reasons as to why teams wouldn't have interest. And even used examples like NJD and BUF. Yes I am a Sharks fan, but have not commented from a sharks perspective. You are asking for a team in that 8-13 range, but I wouldn't even do it for the 14th pick....so good luck then.

B) No I don't think the Habs make the playoffs next year. They're in a very difficult division and that alone gives them a tough road. As I did say though, "there is a slight chance Montreal makes the playoffs/just misses", which would make this trade look even worse for the team accepting it. Not saying they're going to be a cup contender, but even you said you expect them to improve, and if they can improve more than you expect, they could be drafting 15-20.

C) This is not the first thread where...again you started....and then have debated criticism/reasons as to why your value is off. I am just trying to give reason as to why I don't think the value is there for the other team to consider.

Sharks have the 14th pick. Even if you said yes, we say no. Habs are taking a small risk with this idea but most will not see it that way.

I understand the probability. Most things we talk about on these boards have low % of actually happening.

 

[TBF1972]

Sharks have the 14th pick. Even if you said yes, we say no. Habs are taking a small risk with this idea but most will not see it that way.

I understand the probability. Most things we talk about on these boards have low % of actually happening.

which risk?

title states lottery protected mtl 25 first. if it lands in the lottery (as expected), it would be an unprotected 2026 first and the 26th pick this year. so best case is the 17th oa in 25 plus the winnipeg pick or waiting two drafts.

 

[Stewie Griffin]

which risk?

title states lottery protected mtl 25 first. if it lands in the lottery (as expected), it would be an unprotected 2026 first and the 26th pick this year. so best case is the 17th oa in 25 plus the winnipeg pick or waiting two drafts.

The habs get a guaranteed 8-13 overall pick while another team waits a year or two for the same (or worse) pick....but don't worry atleast you get 26th overall this year!

 

[Captain97]

which risk?

title states lottery protected mtl 25 first. if it lands in the lottery (as expected), it would be an unprotected 2026 first and the 26th pick this year. so best case is the 17th oa in 25 plus the winnipeg pick or waiting two drafts.

I think lottery protected means top 2-3 protected.

 

[Flan the incredible]

The habs get a guaranteed 8-13 overall pick while another team waits a year or two for the same (or worse) pick....but don't worry atleast you get 26th overall this year!

End thread. This sums it up perfectly. You need 2 picks in the same draft to move up not a chance to get a similar pick.

 

[TBF1972]

I think lottery protected means top 2-3 protected.

all team's first round pick, which finished between 17th and 32nd participate in the lottery. if the blues won the lottery this year they would have drafted 6th oa.

2024 NHL Draft Lottery Odds | Tankathon

Detailed 2024 NHL lottery odds. View the current odds for each lottery spot to get specific picks. See the chances that a pick is traded based on position.

www.tankathon.com

 

[Crazy8oooo]

For one, if multiple people are shooting down the idea, instead of getting offended and becoming aggressive, maybe it would be better to listen to the criticism and re-work it.

Secondly, I agree with the others. It’s not enough incentive. You’d have to dangle next years pick with no protection and bank on Montreal being better than the 8-13 pick they’re seeking to acquire. That leaves enough of a carrot for another team to possibly gamble against and make the trade in hopes that Montreal is top 5 in the draft again.

 

[Junohockeyfan]

I guess the question is:

What is a Habs 2025 1st (~8-15OA) and Jet's 2024 1st (~26th OA) worth in this year's draft?

 

[Crazy8oooo]

I guess the question is:

What is a Habs 2025 1st (~8-15OA) and Jet's 2024 1st (~26th OA) worth in this year's draft?

But it’s not that simple. The Montreal pick next year could be anything so OP is expecting a team to give up a high pick for an unknown pick and also wants conditions on the Montreal pick which leaves little incentive for the team trading away a pick in the 8-13 range. There has to be more of an upside gamble for the team trading that pick.

 

[Junohockeyfan]

But it’s not that simple. The Montreal pick next year could be anything so OP is expecting a team to give up a high pick for an unknown pick and also wants conditions on the Montreal pick which leaves little incentive for the team trading away a pick in the 8-13 range. There has to be more of an upside gamble for the team trading that pick.

The upside is you get 2 x 1st round picks. One of them is defined. The other is not defined, but based on the stage of the Habs rebuild, its a good gamble given that that pick could be 5OA to 15OA. Habs are unlikely to make the playoffs next year. Worst case scenario, the team gets 2 x late 1st round picks. But the chances of that happening are remote.

Its not that bad of a scenario provided that the conditions on the Habs 2025 pick are lottery protected (1 - 3OA protected).

The problem is that you want some sort of guarantee that will get a 2025 1st in the 8-13 range and on top of that the Wpg 1st. Why would any team do that?

 

[Djp]

Flames 1st is connected to the Panthers pick yes. That could be in the mix vs the Habs pick.

I'm comfortable with offering either but with the Habs pick, it has to have lottery protection. I am personally am OK with not doing top 10 or top 12 protected. You got to dangle something for the teams in the 8-13 range to do it. Most would agree the Habs pick next year will be in the 8-15 range. We are going to move up slightly but no playoffs.

Could end up being
* 8-15th OA in 2025
* 26th OA in 2024
for
* 8-13 OA in 2024.

I'm OK with being a bit aggressive to get a 2nd dart in this draft. That would put the range from the guys we take in this draft to Suzuki at 7 years.

You want someone to give you their high pick snf maybe get a pick there next year?

Nobody is taking that. Thrn you throe in these other confirm th ionsls.

Nobody is that dumb

 

[Habs Halifax]

which risk?

title states lottery protected mtl 25 first. if it lands in the lottery (as expected), it would be an unprotected 2026 first and the 26th pick this year. so best case is the 17th oa in 25 plus the winnipeg pick or waiting two drafts.

The risk would be we give up the Jets 1st and our pick next year is 5-10 range.

Could end up being
7 ish (25 draft) & 26 (24 draft)
for
12 ish (24 draft).

You want someone to give you their high pick snf maybe get a pick there next year?

Nobody is taking that. Thrn you throe in these other confirm th ionsls.

Nobody is that dumb

There is the Jets 1st added. Could end up being like I said above. There is risks to the Habs doing this as well. How far up do you think the Habs move next year?

Go somewhere else with your aggression and overreaction. I don't have any interest in your "got cha" game.

 

[Jared Dunn]

I get your idea here...just don't see a team that would do this. You're basically asking someone to push their current 8-13 overall selection this year to get an 8-13 overall selection next year. That pushes a team back a whole year in their rebuild/development for only a late 1st in a weaker 1st round.

A team like Buffalo who does not necessarily need to add high end prospects at this point I could see having some interest. I feel like they might shop that pick for immediate help anyways and it might be easier to fill holes with multiple 1sts instead of a higher one