Speculation: Guess the AAV of the pending Draisaitl deal

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

With Serevalli saying that the Oilers and Draisaitl are further apart than he anticipated what do you anticipate he signs for? (not what you’d like him to sign for, because that won’t happen)

The people who guess correctly will be entered into a random draw for an all expense paid trip to visit @Bryanbryoil in Hawaii for 2 weeks with the food being catered by @Bobieque and the booze provided by @tardigrade81 along with him teaching you how to do the splits without ripping your groin to shreds.

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[JeffSkinner53]

8 years at 13.5 per. Good compromise number.

 

[oXo Cube]

I'd imagine Leon's camp started in the 15M range and the Oilers were probably closer to 12 which is way too low but we're talking about Oilers management here.

They'll settle closer to Drai's number and a lot of people will be complaining but nobody should be.

 

[McOilers97]

$13.5m makes him the highest AAV in the league, but also doesn't overpay him ridiculously (because let's be honest, there will be decline in years 5-8 of this deal if it's an 8 year deal). It should be in that ballpark.

 

[Realm]

I'd imagine Leon's camp started in the 15M range and the Oilers were probably closer to 12 which is way too low but we're talking about Oilers management here.

They'll settle closer to Drai's number and a lot of people will be complaining but nobody should be.

What do you mean by "but we're talking about Oilers management here" suppose to mean? Their GM has been there a month. You guessed both sides numbers and are guessing they will come in closer to Leon's number.

 

[tardigrade81]

With Serevalli saying that the Oilers and Draisaitl are further apart than he anticipated what do you anticipate he signs for? (not what you’d like him to sign for, because that won’t happen)

The people who guess correctly will be entered into a random draw for an all expense paid trip to visit @Bryanbryoil in Hawaii for 2 weeks with the food being catered by @Bobieque and the booze provided by @tardigrade81 along with him teaching you how to do the splits without ripping your groin to shreds.

Wait….. wait….. wait……

Did you mention booze???? Are we getting day drunk and doing splits together?!?!? Hell yes!!!!!

Honestly, Oilers will likely offer the full 8 years at 14 mill, and crazy signing bonuses.

If I’m wrong I’m getting drunk

Hell if I’m right I’m getting drunk anyway

 

[oXo Cube]

What do you mean by "but we're talking about Oilers management here" suppose to mean? Their GM has been there a month. You guessed both sides numbers and are guessing they will come in closer to Leon's number.

Here's the most recent update:

https://x.com/i/web/status/1828450856590594139

Unless we think Leon's camp opened with an ask of a max contract(not entirely impossible I guess) I don't see a lot of other ways for this tweet to make much sense.

 

[CanadasTeam99]

13.5 should be his MAX. McDavid is the guy who drives this team

 

[Bryanbryoil]

Anything over $14 million AAV will be a tough pill to swallow IMO.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

13.75 x 8 years

 

[Faelko]

I’m guessing it’ll be about 14M now, was hoping for 13M to be realistic. Either way I don’t care, top 5 forwards in the league don’t come cheap.

 

[FlameChampion]

I’ve always thought it would get done but I thought it was going to be an more expensive deal than some would like (including myself).

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

I think they'll get it somewhere around 12.

Silly optimism, of course.

 

[Oilslick941611]

I'd imagine Leon's camp started in the 15M range and the Oilers were probably closer to 12 which is way too low but we're talking about Oilers management here.

They'll settle closer to Drai's number and a lot of people will be complaining but nobody should be.

We complained at 8mil there will be lots of complaining at any number.

 

[McTonyBrar]

8 years 13.8 million

 

[Reasonable Oil Fan]

I think somewhere between 13 and 14.
I also think Mcdavid and him will be 30M AAV in total

 

[subnet]

I voted $14MM but I don't like it - please come in lower, Leon, please...

 

[Drivesaitl]

13.5M on the nose. X8. = A shitload of money.

 

[PositiveCashFlow]

deleted

 

[Mr Positive]

The talking heads were saying 13.25. I wonder if a number like that is floated so that we are thrilled with 12.75.

Although that assumes that the talking heads know what the numbers are

 

[AlanHUK]

Just as a visual aid, AAV worked out for the same total money re-signing (8 years), vs signing as a free agent (7 years).

12.5 = 14.3 (100m)
13.0 = 14.9 (104m)
13.5 = 15.4 (108m)
14.0 = 16.0 (112m)
14.5 = 16.6 (116m)

If he wants to be on a contender his options would be extremely limited if he's looking at this being his final contract and wants a certain $ figure, because there's hardly anyone who would have the space to give him the total amount the Oilers can and still be able to compete

 

[powerserge]

The talking heads were saying 13.25. I wonder if a number like that is floated so that we are thrilled with 12.75.

Although that assumes that the talking heads know what the numbers are

13.25 is also the going rate. Top stars signing their 3rd deals are at 15% of the cap. The younger the player the better. Don't get why people don't think ahead and are just fine with paying him 13-14 at the ripe age of 38. But it is what it is.

 

[oXo Cube]

Just as a visual aid, AAV worked out for the same total money re-signing (8 years), vs signing as a free agent (7 years).

12.5 = 14.3 (100m)
13.0 = 14.9 (104m)
13.5 = 15.4 (108m)
14.0 = 16.0 (112m)
14.5 = 16.6 (116m)

If he wants to be on a contender his options would be extremely limited if he's looking at this being his final contract and wants a certain $ figure, because there's hardly anyone who would have the space to give him the total amount the Oilers can and still be able to compete

I don't think Leon would have much of any problem getting over 15M on the open market. Maybe not from a dead certain top flight contender but teams like Boston or Detroit could find ways to make that work and clubs in that range could quickly be very competitive adding a top 5 player without giving up any assets.

This is the most obvious reason why I think the number for Edmonton is going to be in the 14 range rather than 13. Nobody here should have any issues with that. This player is insane.

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

13.5M on the nose. X8. = A shitload of money.

If it’s an 8 year AAV I’m guessing mid 14. Matthew’s was in at what - 13.5 (?) but for 5 years vs the 8 Draisaitl is reported to be looking for so with the rising cap I’m guessing it’s going to be higher.

 

[Drivesaitl]

If it’s an 8 year AAV I’m guessing mid 14. Matthew’s was in at what - 13.5 (?) but for 5 years vs the 8 Draisaitl is reported to be looking for so with the rising cap I’m guessing it’s going to be higher.

Just hoping for the best. It could sure climb into to 14M.