WJC: Group A and B Scenarios

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Canada4Gold

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Dec 22, 2010
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I think the following scenarios are correct. If you think something is wrong let me know. I wrote these quickly so something could be wrong. I'll either correct it if it's wrong, or explain to you why that scenario happens if it's correct.

Group A

Canada finishes 1st if they beat USA

Canada finishes 2nd if they lose to USA

USA finishes 1st if they beat Canada

USA finishes 2nd if they lose to Canada

Slovakia finishes 3rd

Finland finishes 4th if they beat Germany

Finland finishes 5th if they lose to Germany

Germany finishes 4th if they beat Finland

Germany finishes 5th if they lose to Finland

Group B

Sweden finishes 1st

Russia finishes 2nd if...
- They beat the Czech Republic
- They lose to the Czechs in OT/SO, and Switzerland doesn't beat Sweden in regulation
- They lose to the Czechs in regulation by 4 goals or less, and the Swiss lose to Sweden in OT/SO

Russia finishes 3rd if...
- They lose to Czech Republic in OT, and Swiss beat Sweden in regulation
- They lose to Czech Republic in regulation by 5 to 11 goals and Swiss beat Sweden in OT

Russia finishes 4th if...
- They lose to the Czech Republic in regulation, and Swiss beat Sweden
- They lose to the Czech Republic by 12 or more goals, and Swiss lose to Sweden in OT/SO

Denmark finishes 3rd if...
- Swiss lose in regulation to Sweden, and Czechs lose to Russia

Denmark finishes 4th if...
- Swiss lose in regulation to Sweden, and Czechs beat Russia
- Swiss get a point or more against Sweden and Czechs lose to Russia

Denmark finishes 5th if...
- Swiss get a point or more against Sweden, and Czechs beat Russia

Switzerland finishes 2nd if...
- They Beat Sweden in regulation, and Russia loses to the Czechs
- They beat Sweden in OT/SO, and Russia loses to the Czechs in regulation

Switzerland finish 3rd if...
- They beat Sweden, and Russia beats Czechs
- They beat Sweden in OT/SO, and Russia loses to the Czechs in OT/SO
- They lose to Sweden in regulation and Czechs beat Russia in OT/SO
- They lose to Sweden in OT/SO, and Czechs beat Russia in regulation by 12+ goals

Switzerland finish 4th if...
- They lose to Sweden in regulation, and Russia beats Czech Republic
- They lose to Sweden in OT/SO, and Czechs beat Russia in regulation by 1 to 11 goals

Switzerland finish 5th if...
- They lose to Sweden in regulation, and Czechs beat Russia in regulation

Czech Republic finish 2nd if...
- They beat Russia in regulation, and Sweden beats Swiss in regulation
- They beat Russia in regulation by 5 or more goals, and Sweden beats Swiss in OT/SO

Czech Republic finish 3rd if...
- They beat Russia in regulation, and Swiss beat Sweden
- They beat Russia in regulation by 1 to 4 goals and Swiss lose to Sweden in OT/SO

Czech Republic finish 4th if...
- They beat Russia in OT/SO, and Swiss get at least 1 point against Sweden

Czech Republic finish 5th if...
- They lose to Russia
- They beat Russia in OT/SO, and Swiss lose to Sweden in regulation
 
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What happens if Denmark, Czech Republic and Switzerland all finish with four points?

it would go to points earned in head to head games.

Swiss got 3 against Czechs, and 1 against Denmark for 4.
Denmark got 1 against Czechs and 2 against Swiss for 3
Czechs got 2 against Denmark, and 0 against Swiss for 2.

So it would be Swiss 3, Denmark 4, Czechs 5.

That's why it not only takes a Czech OT win for them to advance, they'd need a regulation win, or a Swiss point along with their OT win.
 
I wish Czech game was before Canada game tomorrow. That way we would know where Denmark finishes ahead of time. I don't want to play them in QF because I want both of us to win(as unlikely as Denmark beating USA is). But if Swiss gets any points tomorrow then best Denmark can do is 4th, so then I can cheer for Canada loss so we won't play Denmark :laugh:
 
Russia finishes 2nd if...
- They beat the Czech Republic
- They lose to the Czechs in OT/SO, and Switzerland doesn't beat Sweden in regulation
- They lose to the Czechs in regulation by 5 goals or less, and the Swiss lose to Sweden in OT/SO

According the World Juniors website, since Russia beat Switzerland, the goal differential does not matter, because the game between two tied teams is the tiebreaker. (This applies to all two team ties)

http://www.worldjunior2015.com/en/information/#tournament-format

Tie breaking formula

The tie-breaking system for two teams with the same number of points in a standing will be the game between the two teams, the winner of the game taking precedence.
 
According the World Juniors website, since Russia beat Switzerland, the goal differential does not matter, because the game between two tied teams is the tiebreaker. (This applies to all two team ties)

http://www.worldjunior2015.com/en/information/#tournament-format

Russia losing to the Czechs in regulation results in the Czechs having 5 points as well. There would be a 3 way tie with them and the Swiss if the Swiss lose in OT/SO.

In games between the teams they all have 3 points, so it would go to goal differential in games between the teams. Swiss are a -4 as they lost to Russia by 7, and beat Czechs by 3.

Czechs lost to Swiss by 3, and Russia beat them by 7 so if Czechs beat Russia by 4 then they are +1, Russia is +3, Russia 2nd.

If Czechs win by 6 then Czechs are +3, Russia +1 so Czechs 2nd.

If Czechs in by 5, then Russia and Czechs are both +2, The Swiss would be way out of it at -4 so then it reverts back to h2h which Czechs win so actually Czechs would be 2nd with a 5 goal win and Swiss OT/SO loss. I have to correct that. I continued to goals for in h2h games, and then games against Sweden(next tiebreaker).

But yes if Czechs beat Russia, and Swiss lose in OT/SO there would be a 3 team tiebreaker so Russia doesn't win anything based solely on h2h with Swiss.
 
Barring something drastic, Canada and US are not facing Russia or Sweden in the QF... as expected. Sweden and Finland are almost guaranteed a QF match-up, and that is going to be a good one. Russia will beat Slovakia pretty easily, IMO.

It will be:
SWE or FIN vs. CAN/US
CAN/US vs. Russia

So what are the implications of tomorrow's game? The loser gets SWE/FIN in the semi-final while the winner gets Russia.
 
yeah barring Russia loss and Swiss win(and both can't be in OT) Russia will be 2nd and would get winner of CAN/USA in Semis while loser would get Sweden/Finland.

Though lets go out on a huge limb here and say Russia loses tomorrow(in OT) against a Czech team with everything to play for, and the Swiss win against a Swede team with nothing to play for then the brackets become really lopsided.

Winner of Canada/USA would get Czech followed by winner of Swiss/Slovaks.

Loser would get Russia followed by winner of Finland/Sweden.
 
Russia losing to the Czechs in regulation results in the Czechs having 5 points as well. There would be a 3 way tie with them and the Swiss if the Swiss lose in OT/SO.

In games between the teams they all have 3 points, so it would go to goal differential in games between the teams. Swiss are a -4 as they lost to Russia by 7, and beat Czechs by 3.

Czechs lost to Swiss by 3, and Russia beat them by 7 so if Czechs beat Russia by 4 then they are +1, Russia is +3, Russia 2nd.

If Czechs win by 6 then Czechs are +3, Russia +1 so Czechs 2nd.

If Czechs in by 5, then Russia and Czechs are both +2, The Swiss would be way out of it at -4 so then it reverts back to h2h which Czechs win so actually Czechs would be 2nd with a 5 goal win and Swiss OT/SO loss. I have to correct that. I continued to goals for in h2h games, and then games against Sweden(next tiebreaker).

But yes if Czechs beat Russia, and Swiss lose in OT/SO there would be a 3 team tiebreaker so Russia doesn't win anything based solely on h2h with Swiss.

Oh, I completely forgot about the Czechs. My apologies, you are correct. :)
 
I'll update this with Group A scenarios, and change the title when the Slovakia/Germany game is over, though those are insanely simple
 
I think the following scenarios are correct. If you think something is wrong let me know. I wrote these quickly so something could be wrong. I'll either correct it if it's wrong, or explain to you why that scenario happens if it's correct.

Group A

Canada finishes 1st if they beat USA

Canada finishes 2nd if they lose to USA

USA finishes 1st if they beat Canada

USA finishes 2nd if they lose to Canada

Slovakia finishes 3rd

Finland finishes 4th if they beat Germany

Finland finishes 5th if they lose to Germany

Germany finishes 4th if they beat Finland

Germany finishes 5th if they lose to Finland

Group B

Sweden finishes 1st

Russia finishes 2nd if...
- They beat the Czech Republic
- They lose to the Czechs in OT/SO, and Switzerland doesn't beat Sweden in regulation
- They lose to the Czechs in regulation by 4 goals or less, and the Swiss lose to Sweden in OT/SO

Russia finishes 3rd if...
- They lose to Czech Republic in OT, and Swiss beat Sweden in regulation
- They lose to Czech Republic in regulation by 5 to 11 goals and Swiss beat Sweden in OT

Russia finishes 4th if...
- They lose to the Czech Republic in regulation, and Swiss beat Sweden
- They lose to the Czech Republic by 12 or more goals, and Swiss lose to Sweden in OT/SO

Denmark finishes 3rd if...
- Swiss lose in regulation to Sweden, and Czechs lose to Russia

Denmark finishes 4th if...
- Swiss lose in regulation to Sweden, and Czechs beat Russia
- Swiss get a point or more against Sweden and Czechs lose to Russia

Denmark finishes 5th if...
- Swiss get a point or more against Sweden, and Czechs beat Russia

Switzerland finishes 2nd if...
- They Beat Sweden in regulation, and Russia loses to the Czechs
- They beat Sweden in OT/SO, and Russia loses to the Czechs in regulation

Switzerland finish 3rd if...
- They beat Sweden, and Russia beats Czechs
- They beat Sweden in OT/SO, and Russia loses to the Czechs in OT/SO
- They lose to Sweden in regulation and Czechs beat Russia in OT/SO
- They lose to Sweden in OT/SO, and Czechs beat Russia in regulation by 12+ goals

Switzerland finish 4th if...
- They lose to Sweden in regulation, and Russia beats Czech Republic
- They lose to Sweden in OT/SO, and Czechs beat Russia in regulation by 1 to 11 goals

Switzerland finish 5th if...
- They lose to Sweden in regulation, and Czechs beat Russia in regulation

Czech Republic finish 2nd if...
- They beat Russia in regulation, and Sweden beats Swiss in regulation
- They beat Russia in regulation by 5 or more goals, and Sweden beats Swiss in OT/SO

Czech Republic finish 3rd if...
- They beat Russia in regulation, and Swiss beat Sweden
- They beat Russia in regulation by 1 to 4 goals and Swiss lose to Sweden in OT/SO

Czech Republic finish 4th if...
- They beat Russia in OT/SO, and Swiss get at least 1 point against Sweden

Czech Republic finish 5th if...
- They lose to Russia
- They beat Russia in OT/SO, and Swiss lose to Sweden in regulation
Mr.Statistics strikes again
 
So it looks like Sweden will play Finland in the QF and will be a rematch of last years GM game, should be good, on the other hand a top team will go out early, so do we like this or not?
 
it would go to points earned in head to head games.

Swiss got 3 against Czechs, and 1 against Denmark for 4.
Denmark got 1 against Czechs and 2 against Swiss for 3
Czechs got 2 against Denmark, and 0 against Swiss for 2.

So it would be Swiss 3, Denmark 4, Czechs 5.

That's why it not only takes a Czech OT win for them to advance, they'd need a regulation win, or a Swiss point along with their OT win.

How can the Czech's finish last if they have 2 wins, including 1 over Denmark, it shouldn't be that way.
 
well it is. Number of wins is not a tiebreaker of any sort.

That's probably the worst TB system I've ever heard, total :shakehead to the IIHF for that, where have they been, obviously who has the most wins should go though, then goal difference, then if they are tied after that they can go to HTH. Last I checked these things were about winning, there will probably be an uproar if the Czech's don't go through with more wins.
 
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That's probably the worst TB system I've ever heard, total :shakehead to the IIHF for that, where have they been, obviously who has the most wins should go though, then goal difference, then if they are tied after that they can go to HTH. Last I checked these things were about winning, there will probably be an uproar if the Czech's don't go through with more wins.

OR, one could say that the Czech are punished for not winning in regulation, like people have requested the NHL to do for years now...
 
HTH makes the most sense as a primary tiebreaker in a short tourney like this. Besides, a win in extra time is not treated like a regular win, its the NHL that's behind on that.
 
HTH makes the most sense as a primary tiebreaker in a short tourney like this. Besides, a win in extra time is not treated like a regular win, its the NHL that's behind on that.

It doesn't make the most sense, it should be a last resort, wins should always be first, why would you want a team with more losses advancing instead of the more deserving team with more wins, it really doesn't make sense. I know it's not, but as I keep stating the Czechs could/would finish with 2 ET wins and the Danes would have just 1, so the Czechs should go through on that, plus the Czechs beat the Danes, so going by HTH logic the Czech's should go through too, so in every possible way you want to come up with, it should be the Czech's making it.
 
It doesn't make the most sense, it should be a last resort, wins should always be first, why would you want a team with more losses advancing instead of the more deserving team with more wins, it really doesn't make sense. I know it's not, but as I keep stating the Czechs could/would finish with 2 ET wins and the Danes would have just 1, so the Czechs should go through on that, plus the Czechs beat the Danes, so going by HTH logic the Czech's should go through too, so in every possible way you want to come up with, it should be the Czech's making it.

except its a 3 way tie, the Swiss are there too. So you include every match where 2 of Swiss/Czech/Denmark played in.

Maybe you shouldn't have embarrassed yourselves against the Swiss, and maybe you should have showed up against a team other then the team in the tournament that at the time never had a win in tournament history. I don't think a team with only 2 points really has a leg to stand on when it comes to tiebreakers. IIHF makes the tiebreakers, you don't like them, then how about winning so you don't need them.

Never mind though, we won't have to worry about tiebreakers when Russia wins tomorrow
 
How you fared against the teams you are tied with is like the most obvious tiebreaker ever. Lots of sports use it.

Oh we beat Russia, I guess than means we're better than the teams we couldn't succeed against :)

I suppose you think a team with 1 OT win, and 3 regulation losses should advance over a team with 4 OT losses as well then. Who cares about points, we have a win and wins matter dammit
 
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