Gretzkys Difficulties in Scoring Goals against Good Defenses after the Mid 1980s

[The Panther]

85 to 92View attachment 994435

Conversely:

1981 -- 164 points
1989 -- 168 points
1991 -- 163 points

1981 -- 36 ES goals (3rd NHL)
1991 -- 33 ES goals (4th NHL)

1982 -- 120 assists
1987 -- 121 assists
1991 -- 122 assists

1983 -- 20.4% shooting
1988 -- 19.0% shooting
1991 -- 19.3% shooting

As we all know, Gretzky's prime ended overnight in September 1991, after which he was never close to the same. Nevertheless:
1980 -- 1st in assists
1981 -- 1st in assists
1997 -- 1st in assists
1998 -- 1st in assists

Also:
1980 (calendar year) -- 1st of North American players
1998 (calendar year) -- 1st of North American players

 

[The Panther]

Those arguing that peak-Gretzky couldn't match Mario in mid-1990s (?) scoring would need to explain this:

Gretzky aged 30 to 36 in the playoffs (1990s):
70GP: 33G + 65A = 98 PTS / 1.40 PPG (+10)
Lemieux aged 27 to 35 in the playoffs (1990s + 2001):
58GP: 32G + 43A = 75 PTS / 1.20 PPG (+1)

This is Gretzky for up to six years after his prime ended, playing on fairly average teams, with unimpressive teammates. And yet in the playoffs (up to 1997) he outscored Lemieux per game quite handily. And Lemieux was in his prime and on very talented, high-scoring teams.

 

[authentic]

85 to 92View attachment 994435

Man I really wish that Suter hit never happened.

 

[authentic]

Those arguing that peak-Gretzky couldn't match Mario in mid-1990s (?) scoring would need to explain this:

Gretzky aged 30 to 36 in the playoffs (1990s):
70GP: 33G + 65A = 98 PTS / 1.40 PPG (+10)
Lemieux aged 27 to 35 in the playoffs (1990s + 2001):
58GP: 32G + 43A = 75 PTS / 1.20 PPG (+1)

This is Gretzky for up to six years after his prime ended, playing on fairly average teams, with unimpressive teammates. And yet in the playoffs (up to 1997) he outscored Lemieux per game quite handily. And Lemieux was in his prime and on very talented, high-scoring teams.

This is actually incredible btw. I know you mentioned it before but this makes me want to go back and watch some of their playoff games in their later career now. I wonder what are some good ones available online?

 

[authentic]

Also does anyone have playoff goals per game averages by season in the 80s and 90s and early 2000s?

 

[seventieslord]

Also does anyone have playoff goals per game averages by season in the 80s and 90s and early 2000s?

Here's what I have in an old spreadsheet:

edit: well shit, that didn't work at all.

I thought the tables breaking was just something that happened to existing older ones, not that we'd have to worry about it while posting new tables.

​

 

[authentic]

Here's what I have in an old spreadsheet:

edit: well shit, that didn't work at all.

I thought the tables breaking was just something that happened to existing older ones, not that we'd have to worry about it while posting new tables.

​

Yeah I wondered what was wrong there

I’ve seen them somewhere before anyway but its been some time since I could find them again… perhaps you could just post the ones for 1980-2001, that would be great.

 

[seventieslord]

Yeah I wondered what was wrong there

I’ve seen them somewhere before anyway but its been some time since I could find them again… perhaps you could just post the ones for 1980-2001, that would be great.

Hopefully this works:

29.93 0.8940 3.173
30.67 0.8763 3.795
29.37 0.8828 3.443
30.82 0.8786 3.742
29.39 0.8989 2.971
29.97 0.8819 3.541
29.60 0.8952 3.104
29.28 0.8985 2.971
27.80 0.8692 3.637
28.98 0.8934 3.088
28.49 0.8900 3.133
29.97 0.8956 3.127
29.31 0.8974 3.007
30.26 0.8958 3.154
28.85 0.9082 2.647
27.88 0.8925 2.997
29.21 0.9073 2.708
30.13 0.9189 2.442
26.66 0.9103 2.391
27.87 0.9181 2.282
26.69 0.9183 2.180
25.67 0.9123 2.250


...jesus, the 1981 playoffs were 86% higher scoring than 2004.

 

[authentic]

Hopefully this works:

29.93 0.8940 3.173
30.67 0.8763 3.795
29.37 0.8828 3.443
30.82 0.8786 3.742
29.39 0.8989 2.971
29.97 0.8819 3.541
29.60 0.8952 3.104
29.28 0.8985 2.971
27.80 0.8692 3.637
28.98 0.8934 3.088
28.49 0.8900 3.133
29.97 0.8956 3.127
29.31 0.8974 3.007
30.26 0.8958 3.154
28.85 0.9082 2.647
27.88 0.8925 2.997
29.21 0.9073 2.708
30.13 0.9189 2.442
26.66 0.9103 2.391
27.87 0.9181 2.282
26.69 0.9183 2.180
25.67 0.9123 2.250


...jesus, the 1981 playoffs were 86% higher scoring than 2004.

Oh yeah Lemieux’s best playoff runs are closer to Gretzky’s than they appear… I’ll pop out the calculator soon and see what it comes out to.

 

[authentic]

Hopefully this works:

29.93 0.8940 3.173
30.67 0.8763 3.795
29.37 0.8828 3.443
30.82 0.8786 3.742
29.39 0.8989 2.971
29.97 0.8819 3.541
29.60 0.8952 3.104
29.28 0.8985 2.971
27.80 0.8692 3.637
28.98 0.8934 3.088
28.49 0.8900 3.133
29.97 0.8956 3.127
29.31 0.8974 3.007
30.26 0.8958 3.154
28.85 0.9082 2.647
27.88 0.8925 2.997
29.21 0.9073 2.708
30.13 0.9189 2.442
26.66 0.9103 2.391
27.87 0.9181 2.282
26.69 0.9183 2.180
25.67 0.9123 2.250


...jesus, the 1981 playoffs were 86% higher scoring than 2004.

Yep I would love to sort out the best adjusted playoff runs if I could get the numbers to every season, but now I’m guessing someone will beat me to it anyway.

 

[authentic]

Wow, what nonsense. When their careers overlapped from 1984 to 1991, Gretzky destoyed Lemieux. (That ended when Wayne's prime decisively ended in Sept. 1991.)

Gretzky also destoyed Lemieux head-to-head, both in the 1980s and in the 1990s, when he was past his prime.

When they played on the same club at Canada Cup '87, Gretzky was MVP, not Lemieux (who scored 11 goals, about 7 of which were on Gretzky passes).

Gretzky aged 30 to 36 in the playoffs (1990s):
70GP: 33G + 65A = 98 PTS / 1.40 PPG (+10)
Lemieux aged 27 to 35 in the playoffs (1990s + 2001):
58GP: 32G + 43A = 75 PTS / 1.20 PPG (+1)

So... here we have a younger Lemieux, playing on vastly higher scoring / more talented teams (with the co-best player in the world, Jagr), in his prime... and meanwhile post-prime, bad teams' Gretzky, in the same scoring environment (mid-1990s), still outscores Mario when the games matter. Now, imagine, if Wayne had been in his prime in the 1990s...

You're always good for a laugh!

What are those stats again?

 

[seventieslord]

Yep I would love to sort out the best adjusted playoff runs if I could get the numbers to every season, but now I’m guessing someone will beat me to it anyway.

I think others have already done similar things, but in an even better way. The playoffs aren't a "league" or "season" per se, as you only play 1-4 teams repeatedly, so the most important factor is the defensive performance of the teams a player goes up against, not league wide offense. League wide offense gets us a better result than raw numbers, but the actual teams faced makes it much, much better. A lot more work, though.

 

[Dingo]

Those arguing that peak-Gretzky couldn't match Mario in mid-1990s (?) scoring would need to explain this:

Gretzky aged 30 to 36 in the playoffs (1990s):
70GP: 33G + 65A = 98 PTS / 1.40 PPG (+10)
Lemieux aged 27 to 35 in the playoffs (1990s + 2001):
58GP: 32G + 43A = 75 PTS / 1.20 PPG (+1)

This is Gretzky for up to six years after his prime ended, playing on fairly average teams, with unimpressive teammates. And yet in the playoffs (up to 1997) he outscored Lemieux per game quite handily. And Lemieux was in his prime and on very talented, high-scoring teams.

Unless I'm way off, this is pretty misleading, the way it has been framed.

Including Lemieux's under a point per game run in the heart of the trap, four years after having played regularly, at age 35, isnt comparable to the rest of these 'superstars in the 90s, in their late 20s to mid thirties" seasons.

Remove just that one season, and Lemieux is comfortably ahead, per game. Now, this isnt fair either, of course, as Gretzky is older, but you have made it look as though Wayne was a better per game playoff performer, when he was older in the SAME time period, by including a season that is from a different era where Lemieux returned from the grave, and also happened to play 18 playoff games which affects his per game dramatically.

edit - that said, it is really impressive what Gretzky did, even in St. Louis, in the playoffs, post-prime. His numbers are great. age-considered, arguably as good or better than Mario's. I just think Mario is being done a little dirty the way you framed it.

 

[MadLuke]

The playoffs aren't a "league" or "season" per se, as you only play 1-4 teams repeatedly, so the most important factor is the defensive performance of the teams a player goes up against, not league wide offense. League wide offense gets us a better result than raw numbers, but the actual teams faced makes it much, much better. A lot more work, though.

Sample size get small quick. Era adjusted - large amount of playoff facing a lot of teams over time could work better.

Trying to adjust for opponent using the regular season would be the only way, but goaltender usage, trade and injury could have happened.
1993 MTL defense was good but nothing spectacular, facing him after those first 2 games in those playoff.. they allowed a whole goal less a game despite the overtimes and facing only playoff teams.

Jake Allen-Primeau 2021 Habs vs playoff Weber-Chariot-Price Habs were almost different defensive teams.

Maybe over career long comp it kind of balance out going one way and the others.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

Yep I would love to sort out the best adjusted playoff runs if I could get the numbers to every season, but now I’m guessing someone will beat me to it anyway.

I'm pretty sure pnep did this, but it may have been 10+ years ago.

I agree with MadLuke's comment in the post right above this one. Even over the course of a regular season, not every team has an equally difficult schedule, but it's usually close enough that the impact is immaterial. That assumption is probably not reasonable for a single playoff run, but maybe over the course of a 10+ year career, it's close enough.

 

[tabness]

Also does anyone have playoff goals per game averages by season in the 80s and 90s and early 2000s?

Asked @pnep this a while back and he delivered

Season	GPG_REG	GPG_PO	DIF
1917-18	10.06	8.00	-2.06
1918-19	8.26	7.30	-0.96
1919-20	9.58	5.20	-4.38
1920-21	8.46	4.43	-4.03
1921-22	7.92	4.86	-3.06
1922-23	6.52	3.25	-3.27
1923-24	5.31	4.17	-1.15
1924-25	5.00	5.17	0.17
1925-26	4.61	3.25	-1.36
1926-27	4.00	3.17	-0.83
1927-28	3.80	2.85	-0.95
1928-29	2.92	2.36	-0.55
1929-30	5.91	3.75	-2.16
1930-31	4.79	4.00	-0.79
1931-32	4.98	5.31	0.32
1932-33	4.55	4.07	-0.48
1933-34	4.82	3.80	-1.02
1934-35	5.03	3.38	-1.65
1935-36	4.33	5.07	0.74
1936-37	4.93	3.71	-1.22
1937-38	5.06	4.44	-0.63
1938-39	5.07	4.05	-1.02
1939-40	4.99	4.21	-0.78
1940-41	5.36	4.42	-0.94
1941-42	6.23	5.29	-0.95
1942-43	7.22	6.20	-1.02
1943-44	8.17	5.57	-2.60
1944-45	7.35	4.90	-2.45
1945-46	6.69	6.50	-0.19
1946-47	6.32	5.25	-1.07
1947-48	5.86	5.80	-0.06
1948-49	5.43	4.63	-0.81
1949-50	5.47	4.32	-1.15
1950-51	5.42	4.12	-1.31
1951-52	5.19	3.93	-1.26
1952-53	4.79	5.50	0.71
1953-54	4.80	4.31	-0.49
1954-55	5.04	5.75	0.71
1955-56	5.07	5.60	0.53
1956-57	5.38	5.60	0.22
1957-58	5.60	6.19	0.59
1958-59	5.80	6.00	0.20
1959-60	5.90	5.43	-0.47
1960-61	6.00	5.00	-1.00
1961-62	6.02	5.67	-0.35
1962-63	5.95	5.69	-0.26
1963-64	5.55	5.33	-0.22
1964-65	5.75	5.15	-0.60
1965-66	6.08	5.31	-0.77
1966-67	5.96	5.44	-0.52
1967-68	5.58	5.60	0.02
1968-69	5.96	5.67	-0.29
1969-70	5.81	6.06	0.25
1970-71	6.24	6.12	-0.13
1971-72	6.13	6.03	-0.10
1972-73	6.55	6.34	-0.21
1973-74	6.39	5.76	-0.63
1974-75	6.85	6.14	-0.71
1975-76	6.82	5.79	-1.03
1976-77	6.64	6.39	-0.26
1977-78	6.59	5.78	-0.82
1978-79	7.00	6.18	-0.82
1979-80	7.03	6.60	-0.43
1980-81	7.69	7.94	0.25
1981-82	8.03	7.21	-0.81
1982-83	7.73	7.53	-0.20
1983-84	7.89	6.31	-1.58
1984-85	7.77	7.49	-0.29
1985-86	7.94	6.50	-1.44
1986-87	7.34	6.28	-1.06
1987-88	7.43	7.48	0.05
1988-89	7.48	6.54	-0.95
1989-90	7.37	6.65	-0.72
1990-91	6.91	6.59	-0.32
1991-92	6.96	6.43	-0.53
1992-93	7.25	6.84	-0.42
1993-94	6.48	5.72	-0.76
1994-95	5.97	6.36	0.39
1995-96	6.29	5.88	-0.40
1996-97	5.83	5.35	-0.48
1997-98	5.28	5.05	-0.23
1998-99	5.27	5.12	-0.15
1999-00	5.49	4.67	-0.82
2000-01	5.51	4.80	-0.71
2001-02	5.24	4.77	-0.47
2002-03	5.31	4.71	-0.60
2003-04	5.14	4.40	-0.73
2005-06	6.05	5.65	-0.40
2006-07	5.76	4.95	-0.81
2007-08	5.44	5.36	-0.08
2008-09	5.70	5.48	-0.21
2009-10	5.53	5.98	0.45
2010-11	5.46	5.61	0.14
2011-12	5.32	4.84	-0.48
2012-13	5.31	5.02	-0.29
2013-14	5.34	5.59	0.25
2014-15	5.32	5.03	-0.29
2015-16	5.34	5.25	-0.08
2016-17	5.45	5.16	-0.29
2017-18	5.86	5.90	0.04
2018-19	5.96	5.57	-0.39
2019-20	5.96	5.45	-0.51
2020-21	5.80	5.48	-0.32

 

[seventieslord]

Asked @pnep this a while back and he delivered

By the way, in case anyone is wondering why mine are different from this, the numbers I posted are actual GAAs, as in per 60 minutes. pnep's are likely per game. Which can often be the same thing, but with unlimited overtime, can be very different. When you've got 1 in 5 games going to OT and 1 in 5 of them goes over 20 minutes it can skew the numbers pretty quickly.

 

[voyageur]

Isn't the argument usually that throughout the entire 1980s and early 90s there was an explosion of the amount of talent? I think that is indeed very true.

The European and American talent that progressively increased over the 80s had an obvious impact. At what point does the improvement in goaltending and the improvement in goaltending equipment arc with Gretzky's career? The Jacques Lemaire trap game, and expansion that brought in more defensive systems to mitigate the talent deficits comes just after his final Stanley Cup appearance, in the changing hockey landscape.

I'd say the better goalies got, and the harder it got to get to the net, certainly had an impact on Gretzky's goal scoring career at the end.

 

[authentic]

Unless I'm way off, this is pretty misleading, the way it has been framed.

Including Lemieux's under a point per game run in the heart of the trap, four years after having played regularly, at age 35, isnt comparable to the rest of these 'superstars in the 90s, in their late 20s to mid thirties" seasons.

Remove just that one season, and Lemieux is comfortably ahead, per game. Now, this isnt fair either, of course, as Gretzky is older, but you have made it look as though Wayne was a better per game playoff performer, when he was older in the SAME time period, by including a season that is from a different era where Lemieux returned from the grave, and also happened to play 18 playoff games which affects his per game dramatically.

edit - that said, it is really impressive what Gretzky did, even in St. Louis, in the playoffs, post-prime. His numbers are great. age-considered, arguably as good or better than Mario's. I just think Mario is being done a little dirty the way you framed it.

I’ve always been very impressed by Gretzky’s 1993 and 1997 playoffs. Showed he could still step it up big time when it mattered. I would really like a breakdown of Lemieux’s and Gretzky’s playoff peaks based on the strength of the teams they faced defensively. I think no matter how you dice these up Gretzky usually comes out on top though, as his 47 points in 18 games is just ridiculous then he has 5 or 6 other runs around 2 points a game or more.

 

[Dingo]

The European and American talent that progressively increased over the 80s had an obvious impact. At what point does the improvement in goaltending and the improvement in goaltending equipment arc with Gretzky's career? The Jacques Lemaire trap game, and expansion that brought in more defensive systems to mitigate the talent deficits comes just after his final Stanley Cup appearance, in the changing hockey landscape.

I'd say the better goalies got, and the harder it got to get to the net, certainly had an impact on Gretzky's goal scoring career at the end.

Gretzky definitely wasnt built for that era, and was still good.