Goalies with the most upset series wins

[Hockey Outsider]

There was a post on the main board where someone (incorrectly) said that Patrick Roy never won a playoff series as the underdog. If I counted correctly, there were five (1986 vs Calgary, 1990 vs Buffalo, 1993 vs Quebec, 1996 vs Detroit, 2000 vs Detroit).

This raises an (interesting?) question - which goalie has helped his team win the most playoff series as the underdog?

A quick (manual) look at a few candidates:

• Brodeur has eight (1995 vs Boston, 1995 vs Pittsburgh, 1995 vs Philadelphia, 1995 vs Detroit, 2000 vs Philadelphia, 2003 vs Ottawa, 2012 vs Philadelphia, 2012 vs NY Rangers) - half of which are from 1995 alone.
• Smith has eight (1975 vs Pittsburgh, 1976 vs Buffalo, 1980 vs Boston, 1980 vs Buffalo, 1980 vs Flyers, 1983 vs Boston, 1983 vs Edmonton, 1985 vs Washington). I didn't count 1975 vs the NY Rangers (which had the same number of points). I gave him credit for 1980 vs the Sabres (he went 4-1, and Glen Resch lost a game). Same with 1985 vs Washington (he went 3-1, and Kelly Hrudey lost one game).
• Fuhr has six (1985 vs Philadelphia, 1988 vs Calgary, 1991 vs Calgary, 1991 vs LA, 1993 vs Boston, 1999 vs Phoenix). I gave him credit for 1991 vs LA (Ranford started one game, and relieved Fuhr in game six, which the Oilers still managed to win). This excludes 1996 vs Toronto, when both teams had the same number of points.
• Sawchuk has five (1961 vs Toronto, 1963 vs Chicago, 1964 vs Chicago, 1967 vs Chicago, 1967 vs Montreal). I'm counting 1964 (it's true that Detroit used three goalies, but Sawchuk had a 3-1 record compared to 1-2 for the other two, and had the best save percentage out of everyone). I'm also counting the 1967 finals - despite Bower having better stats, Sawchuk started five of the six games, and won the crucial final two games after the series was split).
• Price has five (2014 vs Tampa, 2014 vs Boston, 2021 vs Toronto, 2021 vs Winnipeg, 2021 vs Las Vegas). I've excluded the 2020 series against Pittsburgh (best-of-five qualification series).
• Lundqvist has five (2007 vs Atlanta, 2013 vs Washington, 2014 vs Pittsburgh, 2014 vs Montreal, 2017 vs Montreal).
• Hasek has four (1998 vs Philadelphia, 1999 vs Ottawa, 1999 vs Toronto and 2001 vs Philadelphia). 1993 vs Boston doesn't count, as Fuhr started all four games (Hasek came in relief in game 4). I also didn't count 1999 vs Boston, when both teams finished with the same number of points. I gave him credit for 1999 vs Toronto despite Hasek missing two of the five games.
• Hall has four (1961 vs Montreal, 1962 vs Montreal, 1965 vs Detroit, 1968 vs Philadelphia). I'm counting the 1965 series as Hall played six of the team's seven games (his backup lost his only start).
• Joseph has four (1993 vs Chicago, 1997 vs Dallas, 1998 vs Colorado, 2001 vs Ottawa).
• Barrasso has four (1991 vs Boston, 1992 vs Capitals, 1992 vs NY Rangers, 1999 vs New Jersey). There was one series where both teams had the same number of points (1992 vs Chicago).
• Fleury has four (2009 vs Washington, 2009 vs Detroit, 2017 vs Pittsburgh, 2018 vs Winnipeg). I didn't count 2009 vs Philadelphia and 2021 vs Colorado (both teams had the same number of points).
• Esposito has three (1971 vs NY Rangers, 1973 vs NY Rangers, 1982 vs Minnesota). I've excluded 1975 vs Boston (preliminary round, best of three). I also excluded 1982 vs St. Louis (same the number of points).
• Dryden has two (1971 vs Boston, 1971 vs Chicago) - both as a rookie.
• Belfour, as far as I can tell, just has one (1992 vs Detroit).
• Luongo also only has one (2007 vs Dallas).
• Parent has one (1974 vs Boston). Twice he helped defeat Buffalo when both teams had the same number of points (1975 and 1978).
• Plante, as far as I can tell, never won a series as the underdog (as I've defined it).

The biggest surprise? Billy Smith looks much better than expected. (I thought, given that he spent his best years on a powerhouse, he wouldn't have had nearly this many upset wins).

This was compiled manually. Let me know if you see any errors. And let me know if you can think of any goalies who might qualify for the list.

Click to read more...

 

[Hockey Outsider]

Some self-criticisms:

• The "underdog" label, as I've been using it, is based on the regular season standings. This is crude and imprecise. It doesn't taken into account injuries, trade deadline acquisitions, or anything else. But this gives us some rigor to the discussion.
• Ideally we'd be able to break down the data into something like "close series" (plus or minus five points), slight favourites/underdogs (6 to 15 points off), and heavy favourites/underdogs (16+ point difference). As of now, upsetting a team that's 1 point ahead counts just as much as defeating a team that's 20+ points ahead.
• This doesn't necessarily look at a goalie's performance. It's conceivable that a goalie could win a series as an underdog, despite not playing particurly well, because the rest of the team steps up.
• I haven't looked at the number of opportunities each goalie had. It probably would have been more instructive to look at wins and losses (or win percentage), rather than just wins.

 

[JackSlater]

Ah yes, that plucky underdog Marty Brodeur.

Sawchuk is kind of interesting as he had all of these "upsets" well after his peak. Could be a factor in why Sawchuk's reputation was so high for people who watched him, in addition to the usual given reasons.

Anyway it's kind of interesting to look at. Not sure I would really hold it against a goaltender or in their favour, but interesting to think about. Excellent starting point even if the dynamics of a series cannot always be broken down by looking at regular season point total.

 

[jigglysquishy]

I've probably read over 1000 game reports for the goalie project and almost every Cup final 1910-1992. Sawchuk and Bower probably had their stock rise the most for me.

I had largely written off everything Sawchuk post 1955 as kind of iffy. Weak regular season stats. No awards. Backup is his only Cup win.

Then I got to the playoff game reports. He is a titan on those late 50s/early 60s Red Wings. Outside of him and Howe there's very little in terms of playoff praise. But just game after game after game newspaper writers note he stole games, made multiple incredible saves, and was generally a hero. Then as a very old man in Toronto he and Bower hero the 1967 Cup. If there was ever a case for goalies splitting a Conn Smythe 1967 is it.

Outside Hull, Sawchuk, Ullman, and Delvecchio those Wings teams are truly barren.

 

[McGarnagle]

Jose Theodore did it four times (02 & 04 with Montreal, 06 & 08 with Colorado)

Jon Casey with four, three of them in 1991 then relieving the injured Fuhr in 1996 (St. Louis and Toronto were tied in points but Toronto had home ice and the higher seed)

And depending on who gets credit when goalies are rotated, Dwayne Roloson has up to seven (two with Minnesota in 03, three with Edmonton in 06, and two with Tampa in 2011). Though Manny Fernandez took over in the Colorado series after they went down 3 games to 1 (Rolly returned the favor in the Vancouver series).

 

[The Panther]

It's a little silly to say Patrick Roy was the "underdog" vs,. say, Calgary in both 1986 and 1989. Also, am I missing something or did Roy not win the 1989 series vs. Calgary?

 

[Hockey Outsider]

It's a little silly to say Patrick Roy was the "underdog" vs,. say, Calgary in both 1986 and 1989. Also, am I missing something or did Roy not win the 1989 series vs. Calgary?

Thanks for that - obviously a typo. I removed the 1989 series against Calgary from the "upset wins" list.

 

[Bear of Bad News]

The tables are boofed, but there's a lot of series upset work done here:

"Clutch" Goaltenders

I'm working on an article about clutch performance of goaltenders, and the way that I typically write articles is to leave data here and there, and then I can't find it, and then I move onto something else without actually writing the article. So here we go... One definition that we could...

forums.hfboards.com

(starting on page two or so)

Edit: page three.

 

[JackSlater]

I've probably read over 1000 game reports for the goalie project and almost every Cup final 1910-1992. Sawchuk and Bower probably had their stock rise the most for me.

I had largely written off everything Sawchuk post 1955 as kind of iffy. Weak regular season stats. No awards. Backup is his only Cup win.

Then I got to the playoff game reports. He is a titan on those late 50s/early 60s Red Wings. Outside of him and Howe there's very little in terms of playoff praise. But just game after game after game newspaper writers note he stole games, made multiple incredible saves, and was generally a hero. Then as a very old man in Toronto he and Bower hero the 1967 Cup. If there was ever a case for goalies splitting a Conn Smythe 1967 is it.

Outside Hull, Sawchuk, Ullman, and Delvecchio those Wings teams are truly barren.

Perhaps people actively following a player during his career notice things that aren't apparent in trophy counting decades later.

 

[The Panther]

Good tune here:

 

[MXD]

On thing

There was a post on the main board where someone (incorrectly) said that Patrick Roy never won a playoff series as the underdog. If I counted correctly, there were five (1986 vs Calgary, 1990 vs Buffalo, 1993 vs Quebec, 1996 vs Detroit, 2000 vs Detroit).

This raises an (interesting?) question - which goalie has helped his team win the most playoff series as the underdog?

A quick (manual) look at a few candidates:

• Brodeur has eight (1995 vs Boston, 1995 vs Pittsburgh, 1995 vs Philadelphia, 1995 vs Detroit, 2000 vs Philadelphia, 2003 vs Ottawa, 2012 vs Philadelphia, 2012 vs NY Rangers) - half of which are from 1995 alone.
• Smith has eight (1975 vs Pittsburgh, 1976 vs Buffalo, 1980 vs Boston, 1980 vs Buffalo, 1980 vs Flyers, 1983 vs Boston, 1983 vs Edmonton, 1985 vs Washington). I didn't count 1975 vs the NY Rangers (which had the same number of points). I gave him credit for 1980 vs the Sabres (he went 4-1, and Glen Resch lost a game). Same with 1985 vs Washington (he went 3-1, and Kelly Hrudey lost one game).
• Fuhr has six (1985 vs Philadelphia, 1988 vs Calgary, 1991 vs Calgary, 1991 vs LA, 1993 vs Boston, 1999 vs Phoenix). I gave him credit for 1991 vs LA (Ranford started one game, and relieved Fuhr in game six, which the Oilers still managed to win). This excludes 1996 vs Toronto, when both teams had the same number of points.
• Sawchuk has five (1961 vs Toronto, 1963 vs Chicago, 1964 vs Chicago, 1967 vs Chicago, 1967 vs Montreal). I'm counting 1964 (it's true that Detroit used three goalies, but Sawchuk had a 3-1 record compared to 1-2 for the other two, and had the best save percentage out of everyone). I'm also counting the 1967 finals - despite Bower having better stats, Sawchuk started five of the six games, and won the crucial final two games after the series was split).
• Price has five (2014 vs Tampa, 2014 vs Boston, 2021 vs Toronto, 2021 vs Winnipeg, 2021 vs Las Vegas). I've excluded the 2020 series against Pittsburgh (best-of-five qualification series).
• Lundqvist has five (2007 vs Atlanta, 2013 vs Washington, 2014 vs Pittsburgh, 2014 vs Montreal, 2017 vs Montreal).
• Hasek has four (1998 vs Philadelphia, 1999 vs Ottawa, 1999 vs Toronto and 2001 vs Philadelphia). 1993 vs Boston doesn't count, as Fuhr started all four games (Hasek came in relief in game 4). I also didn't count 1999 vs Boston, when both teams finished with the same number of points. I gave him credit for 1999 vs Toronto despite Hasek missing two of the five games.
• Hall has four (1961 vs Montreal, 1962 vs Montreal, 1965 vs Detroit, 1968 vs Philadelphia). I'm counting the 1965 series as Hall played six of the team's seven games (his backup lost his only start).
• Joseph has four (1993 vs Chicago, 1997 vs Dallas, 1998 vs Colorado, 2001 vs Ottawa).
• Barrasso has four (1991 vs Boston, 1992 vs Capitals, 1992 vs NY Rangers, 1999 vs New Jersey). There was one series where both teams had the same number of points (1992 vs Chicago).
• Fleury has four (2009 vs Washington, 2009 vs Detroit, 2017 vs Pittsburgh, 2018 vs Winnipeg). I didn't count 2009 vs Philadelphia and 2021 vs Colorado (both teams had the same number of points).
• Esposito has three (1971 vs NY Rangers, 1973 vs NY Rangers, 1982 vs Minnesota). I've excluded 1975 vs Boston (preliminary round, best of three). I also excluded 1982 vs St. Louis (same the number of points).
• Dryden has two (1971 vs Boston, 1971 vs Chicago) - both as a rookie.
• Belfour, as far as I can tell, just has one (1992 vs Detroit).
• Luongo also only has one (2007 vs Dallas).
• Parent has one (1974 vs Boston). Twice he helped defeat Buffalo when both teams had the same number of points (1975 and 1978).
• Plante, as far as I can tell, never won a series as the underdog (as I've defined it).

The biggest surprise? Billy Smith looks much better than expected. (I thought, given that he spent his best years on a powerhouse, he wouldn't have had nearly this many upset wins).

This was compiled manually. Let me know if you see any errors. And let me know if you can think of any goalies who might qualify for the list.

This is probably pushing things a bit too far, but sometimes the goalie is very clearly the reason why an upset isn't an upset.

One example that comes to mind : Dominik Hasek's Sabres, in 1998, tally 89 points. That is two more than the Montreal Canadiens. The Sabres beat the Habs in the 1998 playoffs, and thus this isn't considered an upset.

However, Hasek had a GSAA of 54 (I know GSAA isn't a perfect tool, but there's very little doubt that Hasek was SIGNIFICANTLY better that season than the Montreal tandem, whose collective GSAA was -6).

That's a 60 goal swing. Even if you cut that swing in half to not give too much weight to GSAA, that's still a massive 30 goal gap, and the Canadiens goaltending wasn't exactly awful either (Thibeault-Moog). In other words, put Hasek on the Habs, and the conservative estimate is they're a +57 in goal differential instead of a +27 team, which puts them in the range of the Devils/Red Wings, and very likely above 100 pts.

Give that negative swing to the Sabres, and they're almost certainly not a playoff team, let alone ahead of the actual Canadiens in the standings (they were 6 pts in the playoffs).

In other words, Hasek's win over the Habs isn't considered an upset because Hasek was too good in the regular season, despite that Sabres team being almost certainly not good enough to make the playoffs with league-average goaltending.

__

On the other side of that situation, Ben Bishop tallied an upset/underdog win vs. the Canadiens in 2015, when the Lightning (108 pts) beat the Habs (110 pts). That was of course Carey Price's Hart season, and there's absolutely no doubt here that Price was the reason Montreal finished ahead of Tampa Bay (hell, there's probably a good argument to be made that they'd miss altogether if you swap Price with Ben Bishop, for whom 2014-2015 wasn't a spectacular season either).

Speaking of Ben Bishop, he has 4 of these : With Tampa : Montreal 2015, NYR 2015, NYI 2016, and with Dallas : NSH 2019. He also only won 6 playoff rounds in career, so that's a pretty good ratio. But then again, Montreal 2015 is a special case.

 

[Crosby2010]

Curtis Joseph is the first name that came to mind for me, simply because he seems to have authored the most amount of monumental upsets. 1993, 1997 and 1998 is all Joseph. That's Cujo in a nutshell. 2001 you can say too, but in particularly the first three. It was in the 1st round, but it still doesn't matter, he was a legend in those series. Some of these other upsets mentioned in the thread are too much of a coin flip for me. Montreal vs. Calgary I can't really get behind from 1986. Two points separated those teams.

 

[dr robbie]

• Fleury has four (2009 vs Washington, 2009 vs Detroit, 2017 vs Pittsburgh, 2018 vs Winnipeg). I didn't count 2009 vs Philadelphia and 2021 vs Colorado (both teams had the same number of points).

I think that was supposed to be the Caps again maybe?

 

[Fixed to Ruin]

Curtis Joseph is the first name that came to mind for me, simply because he seems to have authored the most amount of monumental upsets. 1993, 1997 and 1998 is all Joseph. That's Cujo in a nutshell. 2001 you can say too, but in particularly the first three. It was in the 1st round, but it still doesn't matter, he was a legend in those series. Some of these other upsets mentioned in the thread are too much of a coin flip for me. Montreal vs. Calgary I can't really get behind from 1986. Two points separated those teams.

This, everyone remembers the Marchant goal but we must also remember the epic saves from Joseph

Example A

 

[pnep]

There was a post on the main board where someone (incorrectly) said that Patrick Roy never won a playoff series as the underdog. If I counted correctly, there were five (1986 vs Calgary, 1990 vs Buffalo, 1993 vs Quebec, 1996 vs Detroit, 2000 vs Detroit).

This raises an (interesting?) question - which goalie has helped his team win the most playoff series as the underdog?

A quick (manual) look at a few candidates:

• Brodeur has eight (1995 vs Boston, 1995 vs Pittsburgh, 1995 vs Philadelphia, 1995 vs Detroit, 2000 vs Philadelphia, 2003 vs Ottawa, 2012 vs Philadelphia, 2012 vs NY Rangers) - half of which are from 1995 alone.
• Smith has eight (1975 vs Pittsburgh, 1976 vs Buffalo, 1980 vs Boston, 1980 vs Buffalo, 1980 vs Flyers, 1983 vs Boston, 1983 vs Edmonton, 1985 vs Washington). I didn't count 1975 vs the NY Rangers (which had the same number of points). I gave him credit for 1980 vs the Sabres (he went 4-1, and Glen Resch lost a game). Same with 1985 vs Washington (he went 3-1, and Kelly Hrudey lost one game).
• Fuhr has six (1985 vs Philadelphia, 1988 vs Calgary, 1991 vs Calgary, 1991 vs LA, 1993 vs Boston, 1999 vs Phoenix). I gave him credit for 1991 vs LA (Ranford started one game, and relieved Fuhr in game six, which the Oilers still managed to win). This excludes 1996 vs Toronto, when both teams had the same number of points.
• Sawchuk has five (1961 vs Toronto, 1963 vs Chicago, 1964 vs Chicago, 1967 vs Chicago, 1967 vs Montreal). I'm counting 1964 (it's true that Detroit used three goalies, but Sawchuk had a 3-1 record compared to 1-2 for the other two, and had the best save percentage out of everyone). I'm also counting the 1967 finals - despite Bower having better stats, Sawchuk started five of the six games, and won the crucial final two games after the series was split).
• Price has five (2014 vs Tampa, 2014 vs Boston, 2021 vs Toronto, 2021 vs Winnipeg, 2021 vs Las Vegas). I've excluded the 2020 series against Pittsburgh (best-of-five qualification series).
• Lundqvist has five (2007 vs Atlanta, 2013 vs Washington, 2014 vs Pittsburgh, 2014 vs Montreal, 2017 vs Montreal).
• Hasek has four (1998 vs Philadelphia, 1999 vs Ottawa, 1999 vs Toronto and 2001 vs Philadelphia). 1993 vs Boston doesn't count, as Fuhr started all four games (Hasek came in relief in game 4). I also didn't count 1999 vs Boston, when both teams finished with the same number of points. I gave him credit for 1999 vs Toronto despite Hasek missing two of the five games.
• Hall has four (1961 vs Montreal, 1962 vs Montreal, 1965 vs Detroit, 1968 vs Philadelphia). I'm counting the 1965 series as Hall played six of the team's seven games (his backup lost his only start).
• Joseph has four (1993 vs Chicago, 1997 vs Dallas, 1998 vs Colorado, 2001 vs Ottawa).
• Barrasso has four (1991 vs Boston, 1992 vs Capitals, 1992 vs NY Rangers, 1999 vs New Jersey). There was one series where both teams had the same number of points (1992 vs Chicago).
• Fleury has four (2009 vs Washington, 2009 vs Detroit, 2017 vs Pittsburgh, 2018 vs Winnipeg). I didn't count 2009 vs Philadelphia and 2021 vs Colorado (both teams had the same number of points).
• Esposito has three (1971 vs NY Rangers, 1973 vs NY Rangers, 1982 vs Minnesota). I've excluded 1975 vs Boston (preliminary round, best of three). I also excluded 1982 vs St. Louis (same the number of points).
• Dryden has two (1971 vs Boston, 1971 vs Chicago) - both as a rookie.
• Belfour, as far as I can tell, just has one (1992 vs Detroit).
• Luongo also only has one (2007 vs Dallas).
• Parent has one (1974 vs Boston). Twice he helped defeat Buffalo when both teams had the same number of points (1975 and 1978).
• Plante, as far as I can tell, never won a series as the underdog (as I've defined it).

The biggest surprise? Billy Smith looks much better than expected. (I thought, given that he spent his best years on a powerhouse, he wouldn't have had nearly this many upset wins).

This was compiled manually. Let me know if you see any errors. And let me know if you can think of any goalies who might qualify for the list.

Goalies, Most PO Series Upsets (Seasons: 1917-2024; Played min. 25% Team Games per Series)

Goalies_PO_Series_Upsets

tinyurl.com

 

[pnep]

Skaters, Most PO Series Upsets (Seasons: 1917-2024; Played min. 25% Team Games per Series)

Skaters_PO_Series_Upsets

tinyurl.com

 

[pnep]

Data: 813.4 KB file on MEGA

 

[seventieslord]

What if we define an upset as a ten or more point difference?

 

[Hockey Outsider]

What if we define an upset as a ten or more point difference?

Assuming I've filtered pnep's data correctly:

• 6 times - Carey Price
• 5 times - Billy Smith (still the biggest surprise of this excercise)
• 4 times - Curtis Joseph, Tom Barrasso, Kirk McLean, Sergei Bobrovsky, Jose Theodore, Kelly Hrudey, Mike Karakas
• 3 times - Martin Brodeur, Terry Sawchuk, Glen Hall, Turk Broda, Grant Fuhr, John Vanbiesbrouck, Bill Ranford, Jonathan Quick, Jon Casey, Ken Wregget, Brian Hayward, Gillies Meloche
• 2 times - 27 goalies have done this, some bigger names include Hasek, Roy, Bower, and Esposito
• 1 time - 84 goalies have done this, some bigger names include Benedict, Hainsworth, Dryden, Liut, Belfour, Fleury, Lundqvist, Hellebuyck, and Worsley

EDIT - I just realized I filtered it based on a 10% win percentage difference. So this is only for really big upsets. (This helps speak to Joseph's reputation - he "only" had four upset wins, as I defined them in the first post, but all of them were huge upsets).

 

[pnep]

What if we define an upset as a ten or more point difference?

Goalies, Most PO Series Upsets (Seasons: 1917-2024; Played min. 25% Team Games per Series; min. 10% Team PTS DIF)

Goalies_PO_Series_Upsets_10%

tinyurl.com

 

[Crow]

Some self-criticisms:

• The "underdog" label, as I've been using it, is based on the regular season standings. This is crude and imprecise. It doesn't taken into account injuries, trade deadline acquisitions, or anything else. But this gives us some rigor to the discussion.
• Ideally we'd be able to break down the data into something like "close series" (plus or minus five points), slight favourites/underdogs (6 to 15 points off), and heavy favourites/underdogs (16+ point difference). As of now, upsetting a team that's 1 point ahead counts just as much as defeating a team that's 20+ points ahead.
• This doesn't necessarily look at a goalie's performance. It's conceivable that a goalie could win a series as an underdog, despite not playing particurly well, because the rest of the team steps up.
• I haven't looked at the number of opportunities each goalie had. It probably would have been more instructive to look at wins and losses (or win percentage), rather than just wins.

One more I’d add. The goalie is part of the reason the team is considered an underdog or not to begin with. That makes this partly a measure of the goalie playing better than his own regular performance, correct? Like maybe the goalie just had a pretty shit regular season and he’s not so clutch.

Edit: I see @MXD has covered this.

 

[bobholly39]

Carey Price really stands out here.

 

[pnep]

Data: 813.4 KB file on MEGA

reuploaded (fixed 2023-24 Goalies)

 

[MadLuke]

The goalie is part of the reason the team is considered an underdog or not to begin with. That makes this partly a measure of the goalie playing better than his own regular performance, correct?

There is also the factor (less for Brodeur than others), goaltender play all the minutes that matter in the playoff, but not in the regular season. A team with a goaltender edge can become a bigger factor in the playoff by that alone.

In some case if woul be due to the RS vs playoff gap, MTL vs Nordique in 1993, they were only 2 pts appart Roy with a solid season and they are ahead (MTL had more wins that season, I would not call them underdog, I like the % of pts difference to get that status proposed, simply having less points make every series feature an underdog, while equal to equal playoff series is quite common, a lot of those devils series had no underdog).

Late Price look really good here, but MTL were always the underdog because he was not having great seasons.. while Lundqvist rangers.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

One more I’d add. The goalie is part of the reason the team is considered an underdog or not to begin with. That makes this partly a measure of the goalie playing better than his own regular performance, correct? Like maybe the goalie just had a pretty shit regular season and he’s not so clutch.

Edit: I see @MXD has covered this.

Yes, definitely a valid point. For example, under this method, Buffalo counts as the favourite against Montreal (because they finished ahead in the regular season standings 89 vs 87 points). But they finished two points ahead thanks to Hasek's Hart-winning performance. In everywhere except in goal, the Habs were the better team. In other words, Hasek played so well during the regular season, he cost himself what should have been counted as an upset series win. I'm sure there are plenty of other examples.