Post-Game Talk: [GM20] Canucks lose to Avalanche | 2-5 (Hoglander & Miller) | Ref Show

[m9]

Fun game between two good teams.

Juulsen's play and overall confidence jumped out the most early on. Don't think it keeps up at all, but credit where it's due on a solid game for the most part. Also good on Hoglander for sparking the team early.

The PP work by EP has really masked the play of his line at ES for awhile. Just simply not enough of a positive for a line that gets paid that much.

7th best team in the league through 20 games is a great spot to be. Don't want to trend down too much further, though.

 

[Bgav]

The Petey hate is embarrassing. He's clearing dealing with an injury

 

[Peen]

The Petey hate is embarrassing. He's clearing dealing with an injury

it’s not hate and it’s clear he’s dealing with an injury. but that doesn’t disregard that he looks like shit and acknowledging that isn’t hate.

 

[Bgav]

it’s not hate and it’s clear he’s dealing with an injury. but that doesn’t disregard that he looks like shit and acknowledging that isn’t hate.

Yeah, but he has a 100 million dollar contract on the line, if he was signed I doubt he would be in the line up right now

 

[Billy Kvcmu]

it’s not hate and it’s clear he’s dealing with an injury. but that doesn’t disregard that he looks like shit and acknowledging that isn’t hate.

It’s hate at this point, people are calling him names like diva, lazy, fragile, a fraud who spent most of the time on his butt. Just straight up BS at this point. One even said he got manhandled by Makar even though it was a battle for position between two great players

 

[bossram]

Not a real issue with this game. The circumstances were tough, but they played hard and made it a competitive game. The 2nd period was wonky, but they played well in the 1st. Much better effort than the Seattle game.

The depth players looked effective. That's an encouraging sign over a long season.

We deserved to win this.

Tockett should have challenged that 3rd goal.

They played well all things considered.

But there was 0% chance that goal was getting called back. No goaltender interference there.

 

[ForecheckBackcheck]

Depth scoring + Miller + Hughes has been carrying us the past while. It is time for Petey, Boeser, Mikheyev, and Kuzmenko to step up a pot a few themselves.

Last 5 games:

Pettersson: 1 goal
Boeser: 1 goal
Kuzmenko: 0 goals
Mikheyev: 0 goals

 

[VanJack]

Tocchet hardly seemed upset after this game.....can't fault the team the way they competed.....they had a lot of good looks, including a breakaway by Mikheyev early in the game that would have changed the momentum if it had gone in.

They don't call Denver the 'mile high' city for nothing. A lot of teams tend to run out of gas there in the third period....And the Av's were a determined bunch--having blown a lead and lost in regulation against Nashville in their previous game.

So it's on to Seattle and San Jose......both winnable games. But there are no gimmies' on any NHL schedule.

 

[MS]

Tocchet hardly seemed upset after this game.....can't fault the team the way they competed.....they had a lot of good looks, including a breakaway by Mikheyev early in the game that would have changed the momentum if it had gone in.

They don't call Denver the 'mile high' city for nothing. A lot of teams tend to run out of gas there in the third period....And the Av's were a determined bunch--having blown a lead and lost in regulation against Nashville in their previous game.

So it's on to Seattle and San Jose......both winnable games. But there are no gimmies' on any NHL schedule.

Yeah, Colorado on the road is probably the hardest date in the NHL right now.

It's the hardest place to play to begin with and that team has been absolutely scorching lately with Makar on fire. That we played them basically even is a positive and bodes well. That performance would have won most games against most teams and could easily have won last night with a couple bounces.

 

[Breakers]

Di Giuseppe sucks

Don’t understand why he gets the ice time that he does
Bad underlying results
His expected results are bad
He is a JAG, and needs to be thought of as such.

 

[Pastor Of Muppetz]

From what I saw, the Canucks were ready for this game..played well..Just couldn't convert their chances like the Av's did in the 3rd period.

I thought they would at least get a point out of it.

 

[supercanuck]

I don't quite understand the thinking that EP is only playing b/c it is a contract year and he wants to get his millions. If he sat out 5 games to heal would that actually affect his bargaining position at all? In fact, a healthy EP for the rest of the year would only help. He's playing b/c he thinks he can still help the team, or the team tells him that he is needed and it won't aggravate whatever is bothering him even more

 

[m9]

I don't quite understand the thinking that EP is only playing b/c it is a contract year and he wants to get his millions. If he sat out 5 games to heal would that actually affect his bargaining position at all? In fact, a healthy EP for the rest of the year would only help. He's playing b/c he thinks he can still help the team, or the team tells him that he is needed and it won't aggravate whatever is bothering him even more

Yeah, doesn't make much sense to me either. I'm sure sitting out with a legit injury when you are leading the league in points will be fine for your bargaining power.

I feel like he just thinks he can still help the team even while injured, and he's probably right.

 

[PuckMunchkin]

Yeah, but he has a 100 million dollar contract on the line, if he was signed I doubt he would be in the line up right now

I dont know.

This is a all in year for this core.

 

[1440]

Just finished watching the game. Kind of like the Stars game through 2 periods, 2 good teams and not a lot in it. The Canucks carried play in the third but just didn't get the bounces in this one.

Strange game by the referees. It was almost as though they disagreed with Toronto giving the 5 and called some weak ones to even things up. Then they missed the Nichuskin cross check on Friedman, which was basically a much worse version of the same thing that Manson got kicked out for.

I disagree with posters saying Petterson was falling down to much, it seemed like much more a case of him just not drawing the penalties that he usually does, which is on the refs. That said he is second in the league (behind McDavid) in drawing penalties over the last 3-4 years, so maybe there has been some internal discussion about cracking down a little on him. The penalties he draws often look softer than McDavid's often do because he isn't moving at high speed, and kind of falls down splayed legged, but they are still trips.

The Canucks have more than cooled down on the Sv% and Sh% front from their initial torrid pace to the tune of them being ~8 goals under their expected goal differential over the last 7 games, shooting 9.3% and getting just 0.878 goaltending for a 0.97 PDO. The pundits will say "regression", but that is an example of the gambler's fallacy. Regression knows no history and their results (3-4) over those 7 games are worse than they deserved (probably should have been 5-2). The reality is somewhere in between the first 13 and the last 7 and they are still a good and likely playoff calibre team.

 

[credulous]

The Canucks have more than cooled down on the Sv% and Sh% front from their initial torrid pace to the tune of them being ~8 goals under their expected goal differential over the last 7 games, shooting 9.3% and getting just 0.878 goaltending for a 0.97 PDO. The pundits will say "regression", but that is an example of the gambler's fallacy. Regression knows no history and their results (3-4) over those 7 games are worse than they deserved (probably should have been 5-2). The reality is somewhere in between the first 13 and the last 7 and they are still a good and likely playoff calibre team.

regression to the mean is all about history. it means that if you have an extreme sample or extreme distribution of samples the next sample is likely to be closer to the mean sample than the last sample. a .970 pdo is much closer to the mean than a 1.15 or whatever it was the canucks were rocking through their first 10

 

[theguardianII]

I thought the game was fast.
Canucks hung in there with them for the most part.
Didn't hardly notice Boeser or Kuzmenko and Garland was marginally better. Beauvillier was noticeable
Most players had a "moment" where they dominated.
The altitude didn't look to be as much of a concern, they skated hard the whole game.
They have won games where they didn't play nearly as good as this game IMO.

 

[1440]

regression to the mean is all about history. it means that if you have an extreme sample or extreme distribution of samples the next sample is likely to be closer to the mean sample than the last sample. a 970 pdo is much closer to the mean than a 115 or whatever it was the canucks were rocking through their first 10

Perhaps I should have said "antecedents". You are defining history (past events) differently than I was (order of events). It goes without saying to observe anything it has to be in the past, but in this case the order (history) of events does not matter. The point being that the current rolls of the dice don't 'see' the that the last roll was a 6 and decide to roll a 1, but instead that any roll is likely to be lower than a 6 because sixes are rare.

In this case the Canucks have rolled a 6 (1.10 PDO ~3SDs above the mean) through 13 games, and then rolled a 2 (~1SD below the mean) through the next 7. The first occurrence didn't make the second any more likely, but it makes for a better narrative than them rolling a 3 or 4.

 

[credulous]

no you're right there's no "memory" in pdo and anyone who says having a bad game after a string of good games isn't using regression properly. that might have been your point -- if so i apologize for misreading you -- but i felt like you were dunking on the pundits who have been calling for a regression

this string of "bad" games has really been very average "luck" wise. their pdo over the last 5 is .979

 

[Vector]

this string of "bad" games has really been very average "luck" wise. their pdo over the last 5 is .979

That's 8th worse in the league over that timeframe.

 

[credulous]

That's 8th worse in the league over that timeframe.

don't make me plot pdo with standard deviations

.979 is well within the standard deviation. 1.150 or whatever it was is not

 

[Canuckle1970]

It's the U.S. Thanksgiving Day mark, so it's good odds that we stay in a playoff position. Vegas and Kings will battle it out for 1st & 2nd in the Pacific, and we'll fight for the 3rd spot, maybe even 2nd if we can upgrade.

In recent years I was usually pretty depressed at this point in the schedule, knowing we were already out of it. This year is great.

 

[Oliewud]

Depth scoring + Miller + Hughes has been carrying us the past while. It is time for Petey, Boeser, Mikheyev, and Kuzmenko to step up a pot a few themselves.

Last 5 games:

Pettersson: 1 goal
Boeser: 1 goal
Kuzmenko: 0 goals
Mikheyev: 0 goals

2nd line is letting us down. I'd break it up.

Kuzmenko Miller Boeser
Garland Petterson Mikeyev

 

[Oliewud]

Not a real issue with this game. The circumstances were tough, but they played hard and made it a competitive game. The 2nd period was wonky, but they played well in the 1st. Much better effort than the Seattle game.

The depth players looked effective. That's an encouraging sign over a long season.


They played well all things considered.

But there was 0% chance that goal was getting called back. No goaltender interference there.

The puck hasn't hit demko yet and you can see our guys skate under his pad from getting pushed.

They became very strict with goalie interference a few years ago. Demko was definitely impeded.

It wouldn't surprise me if we won that challenge

 

[bossram]

The puck hasn't hit demko yet and you can see our guys skate under his pad from getting pushed.

They became very strict with goalie interference a few years ago. Demko was definitely impeded.

It wouldn't surprise me if we won that challenge

This grainy screenshot barely shows any contact, and the proximate contact with Demko is from the Canuck.

Let's just be objective man.