GDT: GM15 | Vancouver Canucks vs New York Islanders | Thur. Nov 14th | 7:00pm PST | SNP | Bronco Horvath

[God]

I don't think I agree with the assessment that Bains is faster or stronger compared to last season, but I think that's maybe 25-50% of why he not a plus possession player and it has more to do with lack of experience in getting the right body position to come away with the puck (see: Garland).

Either way, his most common forward linemates are Pettersson and Miller, he has 1 goal in 8 games (from a Daniel Sprong chance), and I can't recall many times when he's "popped" offensively showcasing his skill because he's playing it too safe. While the hyperbole is a bit ridiculous, I don't really fault anyone for thinking he's not there yet.

 

[Regal]

I don't think I agree with the assessment that Bains is faster or stronger compared to last season, but I think that's maybe 25-50% of why he not a plus possession player and it has more to do with lack of experience in getting the right body position to come away with the puck (see: Garland).

Either way, his most common forward linemates are Pettersson and Miller, he has 1 goal in 8 games (from a Daniel Sprong chance), and I can't recall many times when he's "popped" offensively showcasing his skill because he's playing it too safe. While the hyperbole is a bit ridiculous, I don't really fault anyone for thinking he's not there yet.

He really feels like “just a guy” out there to me where he’s not really doing anything that good or that bad. He seems fine on the fourth line, but I don’t really see the justification for the occasional top 6 deployment

 

[credulous]

Considering he's played 92 minutes this season, those numbers aren't accurate.

i care SO much (and am stuck in montreal waiting for a delayed flight to dallas) that i calculated it myself

in 86 even strength minutes (6 power play excluded) his most common linemates by minutes are:

boeser 25.4 (29.5%)
pettersson 25.4 (29.5%)
miller 24.5 (28.5%)
garland 24.2 (28.1%)
suter 22.7 (26.4%)
sprong 13.7 (15.9%)
raty 8.8 (10.2%)
aman 8.4 (9.8%)
hoglander 8.2 (9.5%)
blueger 4.3 (5.0%)
sherwood 3.8 (4.4%)
debrusk 1.2 (1.4%)
heinen 0.9 (1.1%)
lekkerimaki 0.4 (0.4%)

some of the minutes with suter are with raty and hoglander but most are with miller

(numbers don't add up because he's on the ice with 2 or more of these players at the same time in most cases)

 

[arttk]

I think if Lekk can show he can stick then it makes it even more of a foregone conclusion that Hoglander is moved.

So happy to see Joshua drawing into the lineup.


He's not that good. But Aman and PDG also aren't very good. The other two had plenty of runway to show they belong in the NHL. Bains is getting his turn and he is getting better.

Raty has been fine since his call up. Better than Aman.

I think the thing to be mindful for is Suter is not signed long term so there is a world where Suter goes and Hog slides in as the replacement.

 

[credulous]

Hoglander was an obvious trade trip when they signed him to that extension. Added some cost certainty to him.

this is copium imo

hoglander has way less value with his new contract than he did as an rfa on an expiring contract. last season would have been a problem if he were up for arb the immediate free agency following but unless he repeats it this year it's not really a big deal

 

[Vector]

i care SO much (and am stuck in montreal waiting for a delayed flight to dallas) that i calculated it myself

in 86 even strength minutes (6 power play excluded) his most common linemates by minutes are:

boeser 25.4 (29.5%)
pettersson 25.4 (29.5%)
miller 24.5 (28.5%)
garland 24.2 (28.1%)
suter 22.7 (26.4%)
sprong 13.7 (15.9%)
raty 8.8 (10.2%)
aman 8.4 (9.8%)
hoglander 8.2 (9.5%)
blueger 4.3 (5.0%)
sherwood 3.8 (4.4%)
debrusk 1.2 (1.4%)
heinen 0.9 (1.1%)
lekkerimaki 0.4 (0.4%)

some of the minutes with suter are with raty and hoglander but most are with miller

(numbers don't add up because he's on the ice with 2 or more of these players at the same time in most cases)

I'm really glad you did this.

this is copium imo

hoglander has way less value with his new contract than he did as an rfa on an expiring contract. last season would have been a problem if he were up for arb the immediate free agency following but unless he repeats it this year it's not really a big deal

The general consensus I've heard from the media is that locking in Hoglander actually increased or, at least, held his value.

 

[Billy Kvcmu]

Saw this without context and thought we traded him back to NYI

 

[God]

He really feels like “just a guy” out there to me where he’s not really doing anything that good or that bad. He seems fine on the fourth line, but I don’t really see the justification for the occasional top 6 deployment

The justification for the top 6 deployment is the same as giving Lekkerimaki PP1 time last night. I don't mind it at all, but Bains has zero points with Miller and Pettersson.

Ultimately I think he tops out as a Pius Suter type, which is good, but players like that don't tend to wow often.

 

[Regal]

The justification for the top 6 deployment is the same as giving Lekkerimaki PP1 time last night. I don't mind it at all, but Bains has zero points with Miller and Pettersson.

Ultimately I think he tops out as a Pius Suter type, which is good, but players like that don't tend to wow often.

I guess I see it as Lek has actual first line upside so it makes more sense to give him a taste of offensive deployment. Also with his shot, he might actually produce a bit even if he’s probably not ready to be a regular in that role yet. Whereas with Bains, he’s very likely a bottom 6 forward in the NHL, and while he might end up like Suter where he’s a bottom 6 forward who spends some time in the top 6, I don’t think there’s much potential upside to having him in those offensive situations yet

 

[Lemmiwinks]

Sounds like Joshua is playing tonight

https://x.com/i/web/status/1857161067924771207

 

[Vector]

Joshua’s Return

• Like making a major trade
• Big kid with great hands; really excited to have him back
• Loves the way he’s dealt with this adversity
• A well liked kid that’s turned into a leader; has a big voice

Lankinen

• Day-to-day preparing is great; in early watching video
• Stays in the moment; only thinks about the current game
• Easy guy to root for
• He’s going to do well next year and Tocchet hopes it’s with the Canucks

Lekkerimaki

• 1 second with the puck and it can be in the net
• Compares his powerplay work to Boeser and Horvat

Raty

• Outstanding work ethic; has never seen a young kid work this hard
• Wants to play at 100% all the time but needs to learn how to slow the game down
• First one on the off ice and last off

Hoglander

• Takes some responsibility because he needs to get Hoglander a few more minutes
• Has made a few decisions with the puck that Tocchet hasn’t liked
• Hoglander told Tocchet that he wasn’t playing well enough
• Buzzsaw around the net

Islander

• Don’t want to make your team nervous when it comes to closing games out (this was in response to a question about the Islanders struggles with closing out games)
• A solid, dangerous team with very good veteran players

Boeser

• Some days you get a couple percent better
• Any positive day is a good day for him

 

[God]

I guess I see it as Lek has actual first line upside so it makes more sense to give him a taste of offensive deployment. Also with his shot, he might actually produce a bit even if he’s probably not ready to be a regular in that role yet. Whereas with Bains, he’s very likely a bottom 6 forward in the NHL, and while he might end up like Suter where he’s a bottom 6 forward who spends some time in the top 6, I don’t think there’s much potential upside to having him in those offensive situations yet

Probably an extreme example but Kesler was put with Sundin and Demitra when he didn't really project to have first line upside, but his offensive game exploded afterwards. Maybe Kesler still ends up that way without those linemates, but I don't mind them giving Bains every opportunity to succeed before pencilling him in as a 3rd/4th liner. Doing it the other way around almost certainly guarantees he won't develop.

 

[Flik]

DAK ATTACK

 

[sting101]

To me Bains looks like a perfectly normal young player playing in his first 15 or so NHL games. I don't know if people just expect rookies to hit the ground running as + contributors or what.

When you're dealing with guys who are going to be depth players, you're always going to be taking a hit when you invest icetime in them as rookies. Bains looks night-and-day better than he did last year and looks like a totally competent bottom-6 guy at this point.

He has a lot more skill and upside to be a middle-6 type guy than PDG/Aman and that's why they're investing in him, even if his defensive game isn't quite at the same level at this point with his lesser experience.



There have definitely been a few comments here that have exposed a few people but no, I don't think it's the reason for the most part here. Or maybe just hope not.

It's just weird. You have a 23 y/o top-5ish prospect for the team who is Abbotsford's best player/leading scorer and this is the sort of player/asset fans normally support to a comical level and the ANGER about him getting any sort of opportunity is nuts. You literally have people saying they hope he fails or that they 'hope he's gone until 2025' or whatever and, like, this is a fanbase that is still en masse crying about the fact that Sergei Shirokov didn't get a bigger look 15 years ago when he was in a similar situation to Bains now. It's just totally backward from the reactions I've seen toward any other similar young player getting similar opportunities in the last 20+ years.

Preach

Reminds me more of Alex Burrows than a useless plug.....and of course he's not gonna hit that kind of ceiling but his improvement year over year and ability to make plays is worth noting.

Has a really uncanny ability to hold a fraction of a second and make a quality skilled possession play. He's the type of player worth being patient with and has been mostly good and more comfortable this year.

The only issues has been Tocc putting him too high into the lineup with pressure to produce against top defenders.

 

[Bourne Endeavor]

I have a damn raid tonight and am gonna miss at least the first half of this game and I'm mad about it! I wanna see Joshua's return.

Guess we'll see how well my PC handles a game and stream at the same time

 

[Nick Lang]

The rumor at the time was that the best the Canucks could do was a shorter term extension at $6.5m a season. He got seven years and $8.5m from the Islanders.

Frankly, Canuck fans who criticize Horvat for not swallowing a home-town discount to stay in Vancouver are out to lunch. You can't walk away from $2m a season. That's $14m over the life of his contract.

At the end of the day, that's why players hire agents. And no agent in his right mind would have recommended that Horvat accept such kick in the wallet to stay in Vancouver.

When the Canucks signed Miller for $8m a season, and knew they'd have to cough up at least $11m plus for Pettersson, the writing was on the wall. Horvat was a great Canuck...period, end of story.

Yup, you absolutely have to be out to lunch thinking that we could or would have signed a $7 mil / $8 mil dollar 3rd line center. Totally out of question and like you said the second Miller was singed Bo was gone.

Bo was a great Canuck. A guy who tried his best and put a lot into the blue and green. He deserves nothing but respect. People trying to slag his effort, compete, and loyalty are way out of line.

 

[ProviesGhost]

I have a damn raid tonight and am gonna miss at least the first half of this game and I'm mad about it! I wanna see Joshua's return.

Guess we'll see how well my PC handles a game and stream at the same time

panty raid with sopel?

 

[tyhee]

I don't


I think his comment was pretty OK. Horvat was not in it to put the Orcas down, he just liked being able to play meaningful hockey for a change. The statement itself is a touch insensitive, but it was also factual - the organization was a complete shitshow and a circus under Commando Dimbo.

The comment wasn't about the organization, it was comparing the Isles fans favourably to the Canucks fans.

 

[Bourne Endeavor]

panty raid with sopel?

You know it!

 

[Mr. Canucklehead]

I'll miss probably the first half of the game. Hope it's a gooder! Win it for Dak!

 

[Lemmiwinks]

To me Bains looks like a perfectly normal young player playing in his first 15 or so NHL games. I don't know if people just expect rookies to hit the ground running as + contributors or what.

When you're dealing with guys who are going to be depth players, you're always going to be taking a hit when you invest icetime in them as rookies. Bains looks night-and-day better than he did last year and looks like a totally competent bottom-6 guy at this point.

He has a lot more skill and upside to be a middle-6 type guy than PDG/Aman and that's why they're investing in him, even if his defensive game isn't quite at the same level at this point with his lesser experience.



There have definitely been a few comments here that have exposed a few people but no, I don't think it's the reason for the most part here. Or maybe just hope not.

It's just weird. You have a 23 y/o top-5ish prospect for the team who is Abbotsford's best player/leading scorer and this is the sort of player/asset fans normally support to a comical level and the ANGER about him getting any sort of opportunity is nuts. You literally have people saying they hope he fails or that they 'hope he's gone until 2025' or whatever and, like, this is a fanbase that is still en masse crying about the fact that Sergei Shirokov didn't get a bigger look 15 years ago when he was in a similar situation to Bains now. It's just totally backward from the reactions I've seen toward any other similar young player getting similar opportunities in the last 20+ years.

AND Bains is a local kid, and this fan base is typically gaga over local kids. Makes no sense.

 

[credulous]

I'm really glad you did this.

i wrote up some tooling to scrape the nhl stats api and dump to a sqlite database to get at stuff that isn't broadly available a while back and i keep meaning to package it up and maybe put up a website so others can benefit from it but i keep getting distracted by other projects

The general consensus I've heard from the media is that locking in Hoglander actually increased or, at least, held his value.

media says a lot of stuff but i'm skeptical. as an rfa he's low risk for an acquiring team because they can just walk away or lowball him if he doesn't perform. with 9m and 3 years remaining they have to be really certain they want to commit to him

 

[tyhee]

i haven't been able to watch every game this season but per evolving hockey he's played 46 minutes of 72 with either pettersson or miller

That's very strange. With Hoglander having played in 14 games so far this season that would be an average of 5:24 per game at even strength, which is absurdly low. With him having averaged close to 15 minutes a game the first 7 games that figure on total minutes can't be right.

Hockey-reference.com shows him having played 167 minutes at even strength in 14 games played so far this season.

 

[Vector]

That's very strange. With Hoglander having played in 14 games so far this season that would be an average of 5:24 per game at even strength, which is absurdly low. With him having averaged close to 15 minutes a game the first 7 games that figure on total minutes can't be right.

Hockey-reference.com shows him having played 167 minutes at even strength in 14 games played so far this season.

We were talking about Bains.

 

[ziploc]

I have a damn raid tonight and am gonna miss at least the first half of this game and I'm mad about it! I wanna see Joshua's return.

Guess we'll see how well my PC handles a game and stream at the same time

I genuinely thought you were giving a heads up of a SWAT or Drug raid tonight.