I mean:
2024: Datsyuk, Weber... then 2 of Zetterberg, Mogilny, Roenick, Joseph, Marleau, Brind'Amour, Elias and Gonchar
2025: Thornton, Chara, Keith, Price... (Getzlaf, Subban, Spezza, Rask other guys who become eligible)
2026: Toews, Bergeron, Getzlaf... and 1 of the previous who did not get in (Staal the other new guy)
2027: Maybe Jagr, Fleury, Backstrom... and 1 of Zetterberg, Subban, Rask, Mogilny, Roenick, Joseph, Marleau, Brind'Amour, Elias, Spezza, Staal and Gonchar
At that point only ~8 of Zetterberg, Subban, Rask, Mogilny, Roenick, Joseph, Marleau, Brind'Amour, Elias, Spezza, Staal and Gonchar are left. And tbh Giroux is likely ahead of Spezza, Staal and Brind'Amour at least, likely Roenick and Joseph too.
2028-2029... guys who will likely retire this year or next? Burns, Pavelski, Suter, Giordano, Carter, Perry, Wheeler... only Burns has a better resume than Giroux. And that will likely take 6-7 guys off the list over 2028-29... to the point the best players not in will be ~Pavelski, Staal, Spezza, Subban, Brind'Amour, Damphousse, Nicholls etc.
then in 2030-2031 or so? Those are the years likely get Crosby, Ovechkin, Kopitar, Giroux, Letang, Marchand, Kane, Benn, Doughty, Stamkos, Karlsson, Stamkos.
Giroux wont be first ballot... but he will very likely get in because of his peak and prime and because there are going to be some years in the mid-2030s where if he is not inducted? Jason Spezza and Joe Pavelski are going in.
Because the 2009-2012 drafts? ONLY have Tavares, Hedman, Kucherov, Gaudreau and Schiefele with a chance in hell... and Giroux will have a better career than 2/5 for sure, likely 3/5.