Friedman: Gibson is interested in Carolina or Edmonton

[ManofSteel55]

Just because the Oilers are contenders doesn't mean they play good defense.

The Oilers have played very good defense for most of the past couple of seasons. Goaltending does let the team down a lot. Of course, they are in the midst of a 3 game losing streak where the team defense has been atrocious, but it is not the norm. Having a goalie who can bail out a team having an off night would be incredibly helpful. Right now, they don't have that.

The biggest issues with a Gibson trade remain 1) finding a way to make the cap work, and 2) agreeing on a price. Gibson's play over the past 5 years certainly isn't in line with his salary, although I think a lot of that can be attributed to playing for a bad team. But it is still concerning. While PV seems to want the moon for Gibson, it's hard, as an Oiler fan, to want to commit a marquee piece to trading for him when he has some question marks. That said, I also don't want them to sit tight with arguably the worst goaltending duo in the NHL.

 

[Fixed to Ruin]

The Oilers have played very good defense for most of the past couple of seasons. Goaltending does let the team down a lot. Of course, they are in the midst of a 3 game losing streak where the team defense has been atrocious, but it is not the norm. Having a goalie who can bail out a team having an off night would be incredibly helpful. Right now, they don't have that.

The biggest issues with a Gibson trade remain 1) finding a way to make the cap work, and 2) agreeing on a price. Gibson's play over the past 5 years certainly isn't in line with his salary, although I think a lot of that can be attributed to playing for a bad team. But it is still concerning. While PV seems to want the moon for Gibson, it's hard, as an Oiler fan, to want to commit a marquee piece to trading for him when he has some question marks. That said, I also don't want them to sit tight with arguably the worst goaltending duo in the NHL.

When the Oilers defense is good Skinner and Pickard numbers follow suit.

I think Oilers fans agree that October and February the team as a whole underperformed significantly while November to the end of January they were arguably the best team in the NHL.

Skinner stats
November - 6-2-1 2.78 GAA .898
December - 6-2-0 2.33 GAA .913
January - 5-3-1 2.26 GAA .921

Pickard stats
November - 2-2-0 2.53 GAA .892
December - 3-1-0 2.54 GAA .905
January - 5-0-0 2.37 GAA .906

When the Oilers don't play stupid defensely like in October and recently the goaltending is adequate.

 

[Czechboy]

Feels relevant

 

[Czechboy]

I bet you think the Cy Young winner should be based on wins too huh.

Skinner plays for a team that went to the Stanley cup last year and Gibson plays for a bottom 5 team for the past 5 years, including the worst defensive team in the history of the NHL in 22-23.

I'm not even making an argument Gibson is better, I don't really care if you think Gibson is better. It's just an absurd argument to be made based off save %.

I don't follow baseball and could care less how the cy young is awarded. Seems absurd to make a baseball argument.

Also. Using save percentage to compare goalies is far from absurd. It's usually a good starting point.

But by all means.. please show me the stats to compare them. Or to compare Gibson. To the rest of the NHL goalies the last 3 seasons? Happy to discuss and learn from your goalie analytics.

 

[red devil]

Feels relevant

 

[Czechboy]

Thank you. Seems like a great move for the wings to be honest.

 

[onetweasy]

When the Oilers defense is good Skinner and Pickard numbers follow suit.

I think Oilers fans agree that October and February the team as a whole underperformed significantly while November to the end of January they were arguably the best team in the NHL.

Skinner stats
November - 6-2-1 2.78 GAA .898
December - 6-2-0 2.33 GAA .913
January - 5-3-1 2.26 GAA .921

Pickard stats
November - 2-2-0 2.53 GAA .892
December - 3-1-0 2.54 GAA .905
January - 5-0-0 2.37 GAA .906

When the Oilers don't play stupid defensely like in October and recently the goaltending is adequate.

After 3 seasons of watching Skinner, everything points to him being an average backup goalie.

The regular stats support it, the fancies suggest he may not even be backup calibre and finally the eye test drives it home.

 

[MessierThanThou]

Gibson's numbers have spiraled the last few years prior to this one. This is my main concern with him, is he actually back or is this just a temporary heater?

He’s been able to put up good numbers all season and has had few if any collapses despite the team in front of him. He’s even been more consistent than Dostal. We have to go with who is playing well now because now is what matters most. Last year we probably would’ve loved to have Jarry…now we wouldn’t touch his contract with a thousand foot pole.

 

[TFHockey]

I realize that we Oiler fans are looking for "the trade" that will fix the problems with the team and lead them to Stanley Cup glory. The problem is, at least to me, is that goaltending is just *one* of the issues plaguing this team.

Adding Gibson, or Binnington, or Vejmelka might fix a part of the problem. Playing like morons in your own zone will tank any goaltenders game regardless of how good he is. The Oilers have to fix their defensive play along side of upgrading their goalie.

They also need, and I am as surprised as anyone to write this, to add scoring depth. Top six. Bottom six. Whatever.

One trade won't fix what ails this team.

Just my two cents.

 

[MessierThanThou]

When the Oilers defense is good Skinner and Pickard numbers follow suit.

I think Oilers fans agree that October and February the team as a whole underperformed significantly while November to the end of January they were arguably the best team in the NHL.

Skinner stats
November - 6-2-1 2.78 GAA .898
December - 6-2-0 2.33 GAA .913
January - 5-3-1 2.26 GAA .921

Pickard stats
November - 2-2-0 2.53 GAA .892
December - 3-1-0 2.54 GAA .905
January - 5-0-0 2.37 GAA .906

When the Oilers don't play stupid defensely like in October and recently the goaltending is adequate.

More like the D was protecting the goaltending from being utterly exposed as the fraud that duo actually is.

The advanced analytics have favored the defense and absolutely exposed the goaltending as our Achilles heel. Not every giveaway or breakway is an auto-goal. Most teams have goalies to prevent that. We do not. So every Bouchard mistake makes him look ten times worse, which probably tanks his confidence as well, leading to even more f***-ups...especially when it looks more and more like the Edmonton sports media has been told that any criticism of the goaltending is off-limits and to pin everything on Bouchard. And lucky for them, the fanbase has enough bots to proliferate that narrative.

When you adjust GSAx for 20 games played, Skinner is 39th out of 49. Everyone below him, except for Pickard, is either out of a playoff spot or in the minors now (Schwartz student Jarry, and Grubauer). The team has been winning in spite of him.

NHL Goalie Advanced Stats 2024-2025

NHL Goalie Analytics, Goals Saved Above Expected

moneypuck.com

 

[Rubi]

Stu Skinner has a .860 Sv% for the month of February. This is not the guy Edmonton wants starting in net when the playoffs begin.

 

[TFHockey]

Stu Skinner has a .860 Sv% for the month of February. This is not the guy Edmonton wants starting in net when the playoffs begin.

View attachment 983080

I whole heartedly agree, but those numbers don't tell you what happened in those games. The Oilers, as a team, have been playing disinterested and lazy hockey. Sloppy. Dumb mistakes. I mean brutal.

So this isn't all on Skinner. It would be nice if he was the kind of goaltender that could steal a game or two and gloss over the crap play of his teammates. He isn't that guy and the Oilers have stunk lately. And I mean STUNK.

The result? See the W/L column above.

 

[nturn06]

I bet you think the Cy Young winner should be based on wins too huh.

Skinner plays for a team that went to the Stanley cup last year and Gibson plays for a bottom 5 team for the past 5 years, including the worst defensive team in the history of the NHL in 22-23.

I'm not even making an argument Gibson is better, I don't really care if you think Gibson is better. It's just an absurd argument to be made based off save %.

You are right, the correct argument is that Gibson's last 5 seasons are an outlier, let us just focus on the fact that he had about 15 games this season where his SV% was over .900. This is definitely worth 6+ mils and gambling that he will keep playing like this.

Also, people tend to ignore the fact that in each of his last 3 seasons his numbers went down after February. 3 straight seasons is not an outlier, it is a trend.

To me, trading for a 6 mils goalie based on a very small sample is not worth the risk. There is way to big of a chance for him to regress to current Skinner level.

 

[Gliff]

You are right, the correct argument is that Gibson's last 5 seasons are an outlier, let us just focus on the fact that he had about 15 games this season where his SV% was over .900. This is definitely worth 6+ mils and gambling that he will keep playing like this.

Also, people tend to ignore the fact that in each of his last 3 seasons his numbers went down after February. 3 straight seasons is not an outlier, it is a trend.

To me, trading for a 6 mils goalie based on a very small sample is not worth the risk. There is way to big of a chance for him to regress to current Skinner level.

In 22-23 the Ducks gave up 39.1 shots per game. Literally the most shots in the history of the NHL. If you look at the stats since the lockout for the most shots against it is actually comical.
1. 22-23 Ducks 39.1
2. 13-14 Leafs 35.9
.....
90. 13-14 Aves 32.7

The gap between The Ducks and the second worst team is as much as the gap between the second worst and ninetieth. How can you blame the Ducks goalies for getting burnt out?

I honestly don't know what we are even talking about. You don't want them to target Gibson, I don't want to trade Gibson. You think Gibson sucks, cool. Lets move on.

 

[FiveTacos]

I whole heartedly agree, but those numbers don't tell you what happened in those games. The Oilers, as a team, have been playing disinterested and lazy hockey. Sloppy. Dumb mistakes. I mean brutal.

So this isn't all on Skinner. It would be nice if he was the kind of goaltender that could steal a game or two and gloss over the crap play of his teammates. He isn't that guy and the Oilers have stunk lately. And I mean STUNK.

If that's all true, then there's probably not enough cap room or assets for sufficient moves to salvage things. Because you can't win a Cup with a mistake prone D plus subpar goaltending. Sounds like it'll take multiple good dmen AND a good goalie.

A soft sell to unload some contracts/dead weight and set up for more serious tweaks this offseason would be the best way forward in that scenario ... but can the team and its fan base stomach giving up on this year?

1. 22-23 Ducks 39.1
2. 13-14 Leafs 35.9
.....
90. 13-14 Aves 32.7

The gap between The Ducks and the second worst team is as much as the gap between the second worst and ninetieth. How can you blame the Ducks goalies for getting burnt out?

Sometimes I'm not even sure he got burnt out, so much as he tried so hard to be superman every night that his fundamentals broke down over the year.

It also didn't help that at the same time the Ducks sported an awful offense, including a year with the worst PP in history. When you know that if you give up 2 the game is over ... well he's not a robot.

This is also very comical considering that there are Oilers fans defending Skinner because his defense hasn't played well for a little while. How bad would Skinner be if he had to deal with far worse, for YEARS? With no offense to bail him out, or ever let him play with a lead?