German Prospects for the NHL Draft

[Maverick41]

What's happening with DNL? Why so many exceptional statuses? Why has it never been awarded to other good players before? If the 07 harvest, for example, was excellent and no one received it.

Well, it's not really that surprising that it hasn't happened before. The DNL has only been an U20 league for like 6 or 7 years, I think.
So, when players like Seider or Stützle were 15 they did play in the DNL, but it was an U19 league at the time, so it wasn't really comparable. And I am not sure there was even such an option for 14-year-olds to play U19, which also wouldn't be the same as playing U20 at 15.

So, really the only birthyears we could look at are 2003 and later.
And if we do that:
2003 - Not really any standout players that should have warranted consideration for exceptional status.
2004 - Julian Lutz may have been an option, but he was playing with Salzburg in the Czech U20 league at the time, if I reacll correctly.
2005 - see 2003
2006 - see 2003 and 2005
2007 - Honestly, while the 2007 group is pretty good and deep, the only possible candidates would have been Willhöft, Händel or Lewandowski.
Händel and Willhöft spent at least parts of their season in Sweden. Lewandowski may have been deserving, but far from a lock.
2008 - Not really any true standouts, and the only ones that could have come close were/are not playing in Germany.

Will be interesting to see if this really becomes more common.
I had been very skeptical about the 2010 group, but I am beginning to warm up to some these players. Some of 2011s started to look intriguing last season, but it is way too early to predict if anybody might become a candidate for exceptional status 2 years from now.

 

[JotAlan]

Well, it's not really that surprising that it hasn't happened before. The DNL has only been an U20 league for like 6 or 7 years, I think.
So, when players like Seider or Stützle were 15 they did play in the DNL, but it was an U19 league at the time, so it wasn't really comparable. And I am not sure there was even such an option for 14-year-olds to play U19, which also wouldn't be the same as playing U20 at 15.

So, really the only birthyears we could look at are 2003 and later.
And if we do that:
2003 - Not really any standout players that should have warranted consideration for exceptional status.
2004 - Julian Lutz may have been an option, but he was playing with Salzburg in the Czech U20 league at the time, if I reacll correctly.
2005 - see 2003
2006 - see 2003 and 2005
2007 - Honestly, while the 2007 group is pretty good and deep, the only possible candidates would have been Willhöft, Händel or Lewandowski.
Händel and Willhöft spent at least parts of their season in Sweden. Lewandowski may have been deserving, but far from a lock.
2008 - Not really any true standouts, and the only ones that could have come close were/are not playing in Germany.

Will be interesting to see if this really becomes more common.
I had been very skeptical about the 2010 group, but I am beginning to warm up to some these players. Some of 2011s started to look intriguing last season, but it is way too early to predict if anybody might become a candidate for exceptional status 2 years from now.

So looking from this perspective, do you believe that the 3 are so good and worthy?
And another question: Do you consider the 3 best that Spath, Os Grivas, Schneider, Lewandowski were at 15?

 

[Maverick41]

So looking from this perspective, do you believe that the 3 are so good and worthy?
And another question: Do you consider the 3 best that Spath, Os Grivas, Schneider, Lewandowski were at 15?

Penkin without a doubt, playing U17 would be a waste of his time. He has the necessary talent to play U20 and maybe more importantly at this point he has the physical maturity. I think at the same age he is noticeably better than any of the 07s, but not at the same level as Tim Stützle was.

Schwarz doesn't surprise me and I think it is good for him to play at this level already, but I am not sure I see him playing there the rest of the season. I think he can still benefit from dominating at the U17 level. I think his skill level is on par and maybe slightly ahead of the best 07s.

When it comes to Kretzschmar I am less convinced. I think he can handle playing U20 hockey, because he has the size and strength for it, but I don't see him anywhere near the same level as Penkin or even Schwarz overall. But if he does well this season with the U17 team, I could see him play a bit at the U20 level later in the season.

At the moment I have a lot going on in my life, which leaves very little time for me to spend on my hobby of following our prospects and posting here. But I am optimistic that I will be able to update my rankings in this thread this coming weekend. At the very least I will have some preliminary rankings done by then, that I may have do amend a little bit later on.

Short preview for the 2027 ranking:
Currently I have Penkin at the top (not surprisingly) followed by three players in Jonas Schwarz, Jaden Switzer and Jannes Schreiber (the initials JS are really stong in this group lol) that I also really like. I can't seen any of them catching up to Penkin any time soon, though.
After that I have 2 groups of 6 that are separated by very little and anybody within those groups could break out and move up the ranking fast.
I am actually really starting to like the depths of the 2009 group. There is a chance they might end up rivalling the 07s, which would be great for German hockey. At the same time I liked the 07s more than I am liking the 09s now, but they have started to catch up a bit. We'll see if that trend continues.

Still, for anybod who thinks "hey, this sounds great", things may look very different a year from now.

 

[Maverick41]

I started updating the rankings.

A bit of context for the rankings I have updated so far (I will continue on Sunday evening):

The 2025 draft ranking is as good as I can make it. I pretty much watched as much of these players as I was hoping to.
The overager and free agent lists are a little "lazy". I did not put too much effort into those this time.
The 2026 draft is not as polished as I would like it, since I did not catch as many games of some of these guys especially the ones that were lower on my list to begin with, so I may have overlooked some risers or included some guys based on last season who have fallen off.

The rest of the rankings that I will add tomorrow, you should consider most of them (except 2027) pretty much preliminary.
2027 will be the same as 2026, but anything beyond that is mostly based on old viewings and stat watching. But since those are barely more than watchlists anyway, I will still post them.

 

[Maverick41]

I added the lists for 2027 and 2028. I will probably add some more a little later.
But for now I need a break cause I am having a headache from staring at my screen all day.

EDIT:
So, I made it to 2030 in my rankings, but that's as far as I go for today. I am just exhausted and can't stand to look at my data anymore.
Usually, I update my database with transfers or players moving up from say U15 to U17 gradually in August and September as the information becomes available, but this year I was too busy. Now, I have to not only watch games, take notes and update the rankings themselves, but also update all the other player information.
That takes a lot more time than I have at the moment. So, the rest of the lists will probably not be posted until next weekend, because there is currently no way I find the time during the week.

 

[pgfan66]

I started updating the rankings.

A bit of context for the rankings I have updated so far (I will continue on Sunday evening):

The 2025 draft ranking is as good as I can make it. I pretty much watched as much of these players as I was hoping to.
The overager and free agent lists are a little "lazy". I did not put too much effort into those this time.
The 2026 draft is not as polished as I would like it, since I did not catch as many games of some of these guys especially the ones that were lower on my list to begin with, so I may have overlooked some risers or included some guys based on last season who have fallen off.

The rest of the rankings that I will add tomorrow, you should consider most of them (except 2027) pretty much preliminary.
2027 will be the same as 2026, but anything beyond that is mostly based on old viewings and stat watching. But since those are barely more than watchlists anyway, I will still post them.

Appreciate your work, as always.

And with that out of the way, I disagree with your list. A LOT. Haha.

As always, these debates don't really matter because most of those players won't be drafted and your grades indicate as much, but I love the debate, so here goes.

• Agreed on Händel as #1.
• Lewandowski is the easy #2 for me right now. His issues will definitely be enough for several teams to leave him off their draft list, but he's still the most complete player with the highest upside for me.
• Willhöft isn't a draft prospect for me. Not a 3.5 on your scale, probably not even a 3 – at least as of today. A high-end junior and a high-end DEL player for sure, but I can't see him making it to the NHL at his size. He'd need to become a Logan Stankoven type, but while the foot speed and hands are there, the shot, decision-making and physical strength aren't. I'll still enjoy watching him the rest of his junior career and following his progress after that, but I don't think he's close to getting drafted.
• I don't like the Grivas and Bleicher, I think I've mentioned that a few times on here. I actually think all three are kind of similar despite playing different positions. They don't skate well, their skill level is average for North American standards, their size is average, and their hockey sense is pretty good. None of that screams NHL prospect to me, neither at forward nor on D.
• I'm an Elias Schneider fan. Schneider, Schäfer and Fabio Kose are my #3–5 in some order.
• I think Zwickl and Kaiser will be more interesting for NHL scouts than many of the players mentioned above. Zwickl because of his skill and shot, Kaiser purely because of his size. I'm not much of a fan of either, but they're intriguing, and that's what you want from NHL prospects.
• I don't know how high I'd put him, definitely not high enough to be considered an NHL prospect, but I really don't mind Tobin Brandt. He's the most interesting forward on the current Junghaie team for me. Has looked much better than Ziergiebel so far this season. Not a great skater but a strong two-way center with some skill.

 

[Bombay66]

Lewandowski scoring his first points in the whl, we all know that he might be nowhere near the potential of draisaitl at his age, but if he keeps scoring like that close to 1 PPG in the whl and gets on the world juniors squad, he might be a solid early 3rd round pick. Crazy to see which impact the birthdates have, draisaitl had an additional season in the whl before getting frist time eligible for the draft

A pretty good comparison of stats is händel and gawankee as both even have the same birthday and are playing the same league at the "same" age. even their physicality is pretty much the same, shoot hand and style of play. gawankee has been a round 5 pick in 2017, so if händel keeps going like that he might end up in the 3rd or 4th round, as I see him slightly ahead of gawankee overall, For me a worlds juniors squad spot would also be a MUST, but abstreiter always has been very reluctant with underagers -2. I dont get it why he doesnot introduce those players in the u20 games vs finland just to give them a shot.

statistically händel is one of the top 3 defenders of QMJHL U18 but doesnot get in the u20 of germany?

 

[Bombay66]

maxim schäfer making the squad as a 2007, no lewandowski or händel,
as they are getting in sumpf and samanski from oversea, there should also be some tickets for them. not even mentioning bleicher. max hense or seidel are not on the same level like händel.
maybe this will change for the juniors but I doubt it.

https://www.eliteprospects.com/team/8597/germany-u20-all

kukuk instead of händel....seriously?

 

[Bombay66]

does anyone know if händel or lewandowski got the message from abstreiter maybe to first settle in a new environment at their clubs, as they did not even got nominated for the u18, because not even making the u18 would be pathetic

Germany U18 (all) - Roster, News, Stats & more

Germany U18 (all) - International-Jr - hockey team page with roster, stats, transactions at eliteprospects.com

www.eliteprospects.com

 

[Maverick41]

maxim schäfer making the squad as a 2007, no lewandowski or händel,
as they are getting in sumpf and samanski from oversea, there should also be some tickets for them. not even mentioning bleicher. max hense or seidel are not on the same level like händel.
maybe this will change for the juniors but I doubt it.

https://www.eliteprospects.com/team/8597/germany-u20-all

kukuk instead of händel....seriously?

View attachment 923317

I wouldn't put too much stock into this. On the DEB website I do not see Kukuk or anyone playing in NA on the roster. I am pretty sure both Händel and Lewandowski will join the U20 for the World Junior camp in December, when their CHL teams will probably release them (maybe they have to). But for this tournament there is no way the North America guys are available for these random tournaments in Europe in the middle of the season.
It was the same previously. There is also no Julius Sumpf and he is guaranteed a spot on the WJC squad.

I like the roster for the U18 team, which appears to include Max Penkin as double underager.

 

[pgfan66]

maxim schäfer making the squad as a 2007

@Maverick41 already answered the question re. North American players, but the Schäfer nomination by itself is pretty interesting. I didn't really understand why he got multiple games in the DEL (albeit with very limited ice time). I do like him, but outside of his size, what makes him a DEL and U20 national team player? I'd probably prefer Elias Schneider over Schäfer.

 

[Bombay66]

I wouldn't put too much stock into this. On the DEB website I do not see Kukuk or anyone playing in NA on the roster. I am pretty sure both Händel and Lewandowski will join the U20 for the World Junior camp in December, when their CHL teams will probably release them (maybe they have to). But for this tournament there is no way the North America guys are available for these random tournaments in Europe in the middle of the season.
It was the same previously. There is also no Julius Sumpf and he is guaranteed a spot on the WJC squad.

I like the roster for the U18 team, which appears to include Max Penkin as double underager.

oh my bad...thx I did not check if the u20 squads on elite prospects is up tp date, as they are for the u18s, so I skipped it for the u20

 

[Maverick41]

Just went over the rest of the rosters, at least as they are listed on the DEB-website, which is often inaccurate.
And I am actually really happy with them. A couple of omissions of players I am pretty high on aside, those look solid.

There are only a 3 or 4 skaters across all the teams that I had not really on my radar (goalies is another story). And some I am really excited to see (hopefully there will be streams available). It's been a long time since I saw Jack Peterka for example, same with Danils Sladkovs or Nikita Bloch.
Others I am really looking forward to watch on their respective teams are Simon Röckl (who has dropped a little in my estimation, mostly due to others rising) and Paul Martinovic.
I am a little surprised to see Jaden Switzer on the U16 roster, because I wouldn't think he'd make the trip from Canada, but I have no insight into his situation.

 

[Maverick41]

@Maverick41 already answered the question re. North American players, but the Schäfer nomination by itself is pretty interesting. I didn't really understand why he got multiple games in the DEL (albeit with very limited ice time). I do like him, but outside of his size, what makes him a DEL and U20 national team player? I'd probably prefer Elias Schneider over Schäfer.

I like Schäfer. He is big, not slow and a decent skater, but yes, beyond that he is mostly ok to good in most categories and I definitely would pick Schneider ahead of him.
I mean, I know you don't like them, but I would easily pick each of the Griva twins before Schäfer, and Willhöft even more so. I know he is kind of tiny, but his skill is just so much better than anyone elses, it doesn't matter at the junior level right now, and eventually it won't matter at the DEL level either.
But maybe Schäfer fits the bill of what Abstreiter is looking for in this tournament better, since he is probably more useful in a 3rd/4th line role than others would be. Though, I think at least Schneider would also be able to fill that role while also being more skilled.

Maybe Abstreiter did not want to poach all the talent from the U18 squad?

 

[Bombay66]

short overview of the upcomming games and streams for the u-teams 11/7/24 - 11/10/24

U16
3 games vs finland
stats: Leijonat Tulospalvelu
stream: Leijonat.tv

U17
tournament vs france, switzerland, slovakia
stats and stream:
Nationalteam U17 | DEB LIVE

U18
tournament vs norway, slovakia, denmark
stream:
NATIONAL TEAMS

U20
3 games vs finland
stats: Leijonat Tulospalvelu
stream: Leijonat.tv

 

[Bombay66]

Just went over the rest of the rosters, at least as they are listed on the DEB-website, which is often inaccurate.
And I am actually really happy with them. A couple of omissions of players I am pretty high on aside, those look solid.

There are only a 3 or 4 skaters across all the teams that I had not really on my radar (goalies is another story). And some I am really excited to see (hopefully there will be streams available). It's been a long time since I saw Jack Peterka for example, same with Danils Sladkovs or Nikita Bloch.
Others I am really looking forward to watch on their respective teams are Simon Röckl (who has dropped a little in my estimation, mostly due to others rising) and Paul Martinovic.
I am a little surprised to see Jaden Switzer on the U16 roster, because I wouldn't think he'd make the trip from Canada, but I have no insight into his situation.

I am missing two players who I wanted to watch, I do not know if they are injured, but most probabaly this must be the case

U17
Lukas Greil - 2008
Lukas Greil - Stats, Contract, Salary & More

U16
Mark Samoilenko - 2009
Mark Samoilenko - Stats, Contract, Salary & More

 

[Maverick41]

I am missing two players who I wanted to watch, I do not know if they are injured, but most probabaly this must be the case

U17
Lukas Greil - 2008
Lukas Greil - Stats, Contract, Salary & More

U16
Mark Samoilenko - 2009
Mark Samoilenko - Stats, Contract, Salary & More

I am also missing Greil, because I think he missed the last tournament as well, and I almost never get to watch him in Salzburg.
Samoilenko I have seen quite a bit, and I like him. I think there is a lot of untapped potential, and he would definitely be on any U16 team I put together if he is available.

But it is still over a week before these tournaments, and I totally expect some roster changes until then. So, I will keep an eye out for roster updates between now and then.

 

[pgfan66]

Max Penkin is on the U18 roster as an 09.

On a different note, Scott Wheeler has Carlos Händel in his top 64.