Garth Snow the Draft King

[SI90]

My favorite little statistic... a couple years back, Islanders had three NCAA prospects who could use this loophole (which I believe/hope the new CBA closed) to declare themselves free agents and sign with any team they want.

Jason Gregoire rejected the Isles contract to sign with the Winnipeg Jets. Two seasons in the Jets' AHL affiliate, he now plays in Sweden. Never saw NHL ice.

Blake Kessel ("the better Kessel") rejected the Isles contract to sign with the Philadelphia Flyers. He bounced around the AHL for a bit and is now playing in the ECHL. Never saw NHL ice.

Anders Lee accepted the Isles contract and chose not to exploit the loophole. He looks to have a long NHL career in front of him.

Karma

 

[13th Floor]

But unlike Crosby and Fleury the islanders havnt drafted a consensus first overall pick besides Tavares and are usually questioned when drafting the players they did at their spot (Nino and Strome).

And I believe picking good players in the later rounds of the draft is a little more of an educated, well researched pick rather then throwing money down on a roulette table... definitly not all luck.

And... to add: it's not just luck, it is following through on a vision. When a GM is picking in later rounds, he is taking into account the scouts he employs, but he is also looking for a certain mold of a player. And this isn't only limited to selecting a player that fits on your team (e.g. team X needs a big winger). It also has to do with the mental makeup and fortitude projection of the player as well.

Choosing who to select is a skill. That player fulfilling his potential in the face of a myriad of variables, is part luck. Constantly selecting players with an inaccurate and inflated idea of their potential is being bad at drafting.

It has been noted that Snow has purposely gone after high character guys, with Ho Sang being the first departure from that (not knocking the kid or derailing, but there are at least questions). And this makes sense, since Snow has the high character core he wants in place. There's a reason why this team is hitting a stride in unison.

 

[FLYLine27*]

We he's been picking top 10 picks for years so its not THAT difficult...is he the worst drafter? Not at all, he is solid. But I wouldn't call him the "King" of drafting either. He's made just as many questionably picks as any GM, including mine.

 

[AKL]

But unlike Crosby and Fleury the islanders havnt drafted a consensus first overall pick besides Tavares and are usually questioned when drafting the players they did at their spot (Nino and Strome).

And I believe picking good players in the later rounds of the draft is a little more of an educated, well researched pick rather then throwing money down on a roulette table... definitly not all luck.

And with that argument, your basically saying a team like Detroit is not better at drafting then every other team and is just all luck they drafted the players they did.

1) I'd be interested in seeing where people questioned picking Nino at 5. Admittedly I don't know much about Strome pre-draft, but Nino was always a guy that was going around 5. Yes, he was slightly more of a long-term guy, but he was at the top of Fletcher's draft list after the consesus top guys for sure.

2) The draft is a whole lot more about luck than you seem to think. Some of it is educated, maybe even a lot of it actually, but just because a player had a good draft year in another league, doesn't necessarily mean that success will translate to the NHL. That's why high picks can still bust. There are draft rankings for a reason. It's showing that, compared to other players in his draft, that's where he should go. So if you take a guy that was projected to go in the fourth round, and you draft him in the fourth round, it's all pretty much "luck" when that player turns into a first line player.

I put quotes around luck, because that player put in a lot of effort to become that good after he was drafted. From a teams standpoint, however, it was mostly luck. If that player was projected to be a 60 point first liner, he would have gone a lot higher.

Yes Detroit has had some great late round snags over the years, but every team has.

 

[AKL]

Like if we examine this here:

2008:
Josh Bailey, 1st round (9th overall)
Travis Hamonic, 2nd round

2009:
John Tavares, 1st round (1st overall)
Calvin de Haan, 1st round (12th overall)
Casey Czikas, 4th round (isn't exactly overperforming his draft status, solid bottom 6er)
Anders Lee, 6th round (Definitely overperforming his draft expectations, but it's hard to argue whether Snow knew he was going to be this good, or whether it was mostly luck that he developed into such a solid player)

2010:
Nino Niederreiter, 1st round (5th overall)
Brock Nelson, 1st round (30th overall)

2011:
Ryan Strome, 1st round (5th overall)

2012:
Reinhart, 1st round (4th overall)

2013:
Ryan Pulock, 1st round (15th overall)

2014:
Michael dal Colle, 1st round (5th overall)
Joshua Ho-sang, 1st round, (28th overall, but was more highly touted than 28th, his "personality" is what made him drop. At 28, he was a no-brainer)

Of these, only Lee and Czikas were after the second round. For the most part, it's not exactly brilliant drafting, it's drafting who you should be drafting, and those picks happened to turn out how they were expected.

 

[AKL]

Sorry for the three posts in a row, but here's the NYI draft history. You can probably see for yourselves that most of the players on your team, were drafted in the first two rounds. I don't know how far back Snow was in charge of drafting, but even someone like Kyle Okposo was drafted 7th overall.

NYI Draft History

To be certain, I'm not trying to bash the Islanders or Garth Snow. He's drafted the players where they should be, and it's paying off with them developing into what they should. However, he's also made his fair share of mistakes, as have all GMs. Like someone said earlier, he's not bad at drafting, but he's not the king either.

You guys have a good team, and you should be proud of that, but it doesn't necessarily make him a great drafting GM. After seeing his team this year, has he been getting more flak than he should the last five years? Probably.

 

[DonKingKong]

It's easier to look like a top GM when you are drafting in the top ten every year but Snow has built a really good Isles team that is finally starting to look like it is a piece or two away from being in the mix.

 

[joemon999]

1) I'd be interested in seeing where people questioned picking Nino at 5. Admittedly I don't know much about Strome pre-draft, but Nino was always a guy that was going around 5. Yes, he was slightly more of a long-term guy, but he was at the top of Fletcher's draft list after the consesus top guys for sure.

2) The draft is a whole lot more about luck than you seem to think. Some of it is educated, maybe even a lot of it actually, but just because a player had a good draft year in another league, doesn't necessarily mean that success will translate to the NHL. That's why high picks can still bust. There are draft rankings for a reason. It's showing that, compared to other players in his draft, that's where he should go. So if you take a guy that was projected to go in the fourth round, and you draft him in the fourth round, it's all pretty much "luck" when that player turns into a first line player.

I put quotes around luck, because that player put in a lot of effort to become that good after he was drafted. From a teams standpoint, however, it was mostly luck. If that player was projected to be a 60 point first liner, he would have gone a lot higher.

Yes Detroit has had some great late round snags over the years, but every team has.

I'm on my mobile so I can't quote any quotes or articles but I remember people saying both Nino and Strome were around pick number 10 in mock drafts and the Islanders drafting them was a bit of a reach (especially with other great prospects such as Fowler still being avaible) If any fans may be able to find any links, please post them!

And yea I agree with you to an extent that luck is indeed a factor when it comes to drafting in the later rounds. At the same time however, I feel teams who strike gold in the later rounds more often than other teams simply are better at drafting then opposed to them being merely "lucky".

 

[AKL]

And yea I agree with you to an extent that luck is indeed a factor when it comes to drafting in the later rounds. At the same time however, I feel teams who strike gold in the later rounds more often than other teams simply are better at drafting then opposed to them being merely "lucky".

But that's the thing, you guys haven't really struck any gold in the later rounds, especially not any more than any other random team you can find. Like I posted in the post that followed, your only real late round "gem" was Lee, and it's not like he's a top line winger.

So if all teams grab a player in the later rounds that develops better than expected, and they do, then that means all GMs are smarter at drafting than all other GMs. Eventually then, it evens out.

EDIT: Completely forgot about Spurgeon, which is weird cause he's on my team. He should be your pride and joy when it comes to late round drafting, he's the best player you've taken in a late round in at least the last 10 years.

 

[joemon999]

Sorry for the three posts in a row, but here's the NYI draft history. You can probably see for yourselves that most of the players on your team, were drafted in the first two rounds. I don't know how far back Snow was in charge of drafting, but even someone like Kyle Okposo was drafted 7th overall.

NYI Draft History

To be certain, I'm not trying to bash the Islanders or Garth Snow. He's drafted the players where they should be, and it's paying off with them developing into what they should. However, he's also made his fair share of mistakes, as have all GMs. Like someone said earlier, he's not bad at drafting, but he's not the king either.

You guys have a good team, and you should be proud of that, but it doesn't necessarily make him a great drafting GM. After seeing his team this year, has he been getting more flak than he should the last five years? Probably.

And just FYI I only made the title "Garth Snow the DraftKing" as a pun to the famous fantasy drafting website "DraftKingz" until a mod changed the title and put a space in between Draft and King. It was more me being corny rather than me actually believing that Snow is the best drafter in the the league.

 

[joemon999]

But that's the thing, you guys haven't really struck any gold in the later rounds, especially not any more than any other random team you can find. Like I posted in the post that followed, your only real late round "gem" was Lee, and it's not like he's a top line winger.

So if all teams grab a player in the later rounds that develops better than expected, and they do, then that means all GMs are smarter at drafting than all other GMs. Eventually then, it evens out.

EDIT: Completely forgot about Spurgeon, which is weird cause he's on my team. He should be your pride and joy when it comes to late round drafting, he's the best player you've taken in a late round in at least the last 10 years.

Sure, we may not have drafted a lot of NHL players in the late rounds as opposed to other teams. But, I am more emphasizing the point that a lot of his picks overall have turned into professional players (on the NHL and AHL level).

I wonder if their is a mathmatical formula or stat we can start using to compare team's draft year success compared to other teams. Maybe something like number of players from the draft that contribute regularly on the NHL level (over 100 games played ) divded by the number of players drafted that year. Would be interesting to see.

 

[nyiguy21]

I don't think it's a surprise that once Ryan Jankowski left in 2010 the Isles have had few late round picks pan out. Granted it is early for the more recent drafts to judge that late, but I really feel he was the brain of the operation. And even then the common trend about the Isles drafting is taking fliers on players with issues in the late rounds. Anders Lee was questionable whether or not he would play football or hockey and went lower in the draft because of it. Casey Cizikas had his legal issues during his draft year. Petrov and Kabanov had the skill but the "Russian factor".

Basically the Isles drafting model has been to take their high pick and draft a safe guy that is probable to pan out and then swing for the fences in the later picks. Last year was a good example in taking Dal Colle at 5 and then going for the home run in Ho-Sang at 28.

One thing that I really applaud is that when Snow and his staff have a guy they really want, they go out and get him. de Haan in 09 and Nelson in 10 they traded up for and both moves have paid off thus far. Ho-Sang is the next one that we will have to wait and see if he can pan out.

 

[Nolanitis]

Islanders have great drafts. Not sure how much that is on Garth though, probably more likely the scouting department moreso.

Drouin is a better prospect than Strome and he didn't even mention Drouin in his post
And he's an Oilers fan, so that's not biased. Don't get why we are discussing Lightning prospects in an Islanders thread in the first place.

Last line he says Drouin is a much better prospect than Strome. I beg to differ, but guess we will have to wait 2-3 years to see.

 

[boredmale]

2009:
Anders Lee, 6th round (Definitely overperforming his draft expectations, but it's hard to argue whether Snow knew he was going to be this good, or whether it was mostly luck that he developed into such a solid player)

To be perfectly honest I don't know how he fell so much. He could have been picked in 2008 but I think uncertainty of him choosing hockey or football got him passed over there, but in 2009 when he did pick hockey you think he might have went higher.

When I look at articles written around both these years it seemed like Lee had some notoriety in the State, and their was even some rumblings he might go as high as a 3rd round. I get why he fell in 2008 but you think somebody might have taken a chance late(like 6th or 7th round) given his athletic ability, in 2009 he should have went higher then 6th.

I know the counter argument will be well he really hasn't made any inroads to the NHL till he is 24, but given the combination of size and skill you think GMs would be drooling. I also think if he was drafted higher teams would have tried harder to develop him fast(maybe get him out of college 1 year earlier, maybe he wouldn't have played that year in the USHL, etc)

As for Garth Snow, I am not sure he is a draft king but I do think he had a few above average drafts beyond their first pick picking up alot of good value picks in the 2nd round and beyond. All that being said the 2010 draft was really weird after the Kabanov pick(which I think was a decent calculated risk which i would do again if a similar situation arose). I do think 2008 and 2009 though are 2 drafts that sort of stick out as getting alot of good value in later rounds compared to 2010+

 

[silverfish]

It was a backhanded compliment. You basically said "yea it's good, but anyone with the same draft picks as the isles would of done just as well or better." And then went even further to compare them to your rangers, almost as a way to try and validate for yourself that the rangers are still better then the Isles when no one even mentioned the rangers until you did. You make it seem that if the Rangers had the same draft picks as the Isles that they would of done just as well or better at drafting then the Isles, meanwhile I believe that not true when your team drafts someone like McIlrath over Fowler.

Never ever once did I say the Rangers drafting was better than the Islanders, I'm saying the opposite. This is the second time you're either putting words in my mouth, or just completely misreading the post that you are quoting. Unless you're counting that part in my first post where I say that Duclair has played 10 more games than Reinhart, because that was very obviously tongue in cheek. At least to me. I suppose I should've put a smiley in there.

But yes, I did imply that because the Islanders have had the 'good fortune' of having high picks, that there are many GMs around the league who would have had similar success to Garth picking in those spots.

I only compared them to the Rangers because I am a Rangers fan, and it is pretty common for fans of one team to compare THEIR team to another team in question, as it is what they know most and care most about.

If you'd like, I can do a comparison with another team that isn't the Rangers. Just let me know what team you'd like me to do. I'll do the same comparison one day over my holiday break from work. To not derail the thread, I can even PM it to you. Just let me know.

Why are you comparing them to the Rangers? Why not compare them to teams that have been around the same drafting range as them over the time in question? By your logic, it's "so easy", that all of those teams should have similar prospect pools. Care to do that analysis?

Not only has Snow done a good job drafting in the early rounds as well as a few steals in the later rounds, but he has also drafted players that complement each other well. He's mixing and matching PBA and need, and he's doing it quite well. Strome and Nelson are a dynamic pair. Reinhart and Pulock complement each other very well. Hamonic and de Haan look like a pairing for a long time. MDC slots right next to Tavares.

He's done a good job. The whole "he's had easy picks" rhetoric couldn't be more armchair GM. It's all so easy from your recliner.

See above and let me know which team you'd like.

It's telling that I'm not the only one in this thread arguing what I'm arguing, and that it's not only Rangers fans doing so.

I'm not trying to armchair GM. I've said that Garth has done a good job. I've admitted that the people in the draft room have forgotten more about hockey than I'll never know (though that was when I was discussing the Rangers, but I meant it to apply to all teams).

Is it so terrible for me to say that while Garth has been good at drafting recently, it's not this amazingly impressive feat because of where his team has been picking in the draft order? Is that really so bad to say?

EDIT - Oh lookie here! Let's take a look at something I just noticed...

Post #41 in this thread:

Lol, typical hate post from a rangers fan. I really dont mind the Rangers team at all but their fans make it hard for me to like them. As a rangers fan, you have no business saying a team's drafting sucks. Let's compare the Islanders drafting to the Rangers drafting. How's McIlrath doing for you guys?

My reply to this post, post #43 in this thread. It's very a long winded comparison of the Rangers and Islanders, as prompted, so I'll save everyone the scrolling and another long quote. You can follow the link in the quote box.


And a reply to my post #43, in post #45:

It was a backhanded compliment. You basically said "yea it's good, but anyone with the same draft picks as the isles would of done just as well or better." And then went even further to compare them to your rangers, almost as a way to try and validate for yourself that the rangers are still better then the Isles when no one even mentioned the rangers until you did. You make it seem that if the Rangers had the same draft picks as the Isles that they would of done just as well or better at drafting then the Isles, meanwhile I believe that not true when your team drafts someone like McIlrath over Fowler.

And then another reply to #43 here in post #46

Why are you comparing them to the Rangers?

So, joemon999, no one brought up the Rangers? Dude, you did.

13th Floor - that's why I compared them to the Rangers.

 

[wingnutks]

Snow is OK at drafting. He is the King of the waiver wire.

 

[TT1]

garth snow doesnt draft the players, but ok

 

[BLNY]

How much input does Snowy have at the draft table? I know with Montreal, for much of Timmins' tenure the GM has had the last word on the first rounder, but after that Timmins and his staff get final say.

 

[Viqsi]

Snow is OK at drafting. He is the King of the waiver wire.

The Jarmo is unimpressed.

 

[Raspewtin]

Lol, typical hate post from a rangers fan. I really dont mind the Rangers team at all but their fans make it hard for me to like them. As a rangers fan, you have no business saying a team's drafting sucks. Let's compare the Islanders drafting to the Rangers drafting. How's McIlrath doing for you guys?

That wasn't even a hate post. It was about as impartial as it gets. And he used facts to back it up.

How's Nino doing anyway? Oh, wait. Garth traded him for a 4th liner .

He's done a good job. The whole "he's had easy picks" rhetoric couldn't be more armchair GM. It's all so easy from your recliner.

Are you reading the same post I am?

He has a very valid argument. It's not THAT hard to find impact players when you consistently have high first round picks. If it was so damn hard, why do most teams that pick that high end up with those kind of players?

 

[Jacko95]

To be honest I am not really impressed with his drafting.
He has developed is high picks very well over the last few years (with the exception of Nino), however while many of those guys have developed great, non has really exceeded is potential and IMO not a single of those guys would go higher in a redraft than the spot they were drafted.

Past the first round (by the way props to the Nelson pick) he really has not much to show (yet).
Lee is far and away his best pick and if Spurgeon would have signed a contract (don't know the Story behind it) he would be right up there.
But other than those two he has really nothing important to show yet. Of course there are some promising guys, but nobody knows of they will really develop into a NHL guy. And every team has those promising guys and history tells us most of them will not make it for a 100gp+ career

 

[boredmale]

And every team has those promising guys and history tells us most of them will not make it for a 100gp+ career

Cizikas, Martin and Hamonic have all played 100+ games(Martin and Hamonic are at 250+)

 

[Jacko95]

Cizikas, Martin and Hamonic have all played 100+ games(Martin and Hamonic are at 250+)

Sorry I missed Hamonic in my post, a great pick for sure.
Martin and Cizikas are nothing important/ valueable in my book as they are "only" 4th liners and those guys tend to come out of the late rounds most of the time. And those guys tend to have very low value around the league.

I am not trying to bash on Snow and His scouts as I have no reason to do so, but this Record still doesn't blow me away. It's just a little better than average IMO. Maybe my expectations for a great draft are higher than they should as a Bolts fan, but I just don't see NYI in that top tier of drafting teams with ANA, Det, TBL and maybe LA

 

[boredmale]

Martin and Cizikas are nothing important/ valueable in my book as they are "only" 4th liners and those guys tend to come out of the late rounds most of the time. And those guys tend to have very low value around the league.

I think a good 4th line can be very valuable to a team. I know there was a few games this year our 4th line were the best line that game. In the case of both players Martin is probably one of the best hitters in the league and as for Cizikas the only problem I have with him is he needs to improve his faceoff percentage but beyond that I think he has 3rd center potential(because he does have some offensive ability)

I do think good(and cheap) role players can be a big time plus for anyteam

 

[Raspewtin]

I'm on my mobile so I can't quote any quotes or articles but I remember people saying both Nino and Strome were around pick number 10 in mock drafts and the Islanders drafting them was a bit of a reach (especially with other great prospects such as Fowler still being avaible) If any fans may be able to find any links, please post them!

And yea I agree with you to an extent that luck is indeed a factor when it comes to drafting in the later rounds. At the same time however, I feel teams who strike gold in the later rounds more often than other teams simply are better at drafting then opposed to them being merely "lucky".

This doesn't matter. And that's because there were players picked after those players, that became high impact, and in some cases even higher impact players, than Strome and Nino.

You only get credit for that in a case like Hampus Lindholm where he winds up being better than pretty much every player picked after him, though ranked lower.

If you reach at pick 20 or 21, where the quality of players is significantly lower, and you make a successful reach, that's also worthy of praise. Making a "reach" twice in the top 10 is really not much of worthy of praise in this case.