Pre-Game Talk: Game #7 Leafs (2-3-1) vs. Canes (4-0-0), 7pm Mon

[Ziggdiezan]

Yes and the numbers are weighted according to recency, amongst other factors.

That is good at least. I'm guessing they do a weighted averaged based on numbers of games played per year and the stats for each year. As a result likely has a much bigger impact from previous years. If they are just averaging the stats across years without taking into consideration game played it is a bad analysis

 

[Clark4Ever]

Glad to see Keefe shake up the lines. Hope it will have the desired effect.

 

[Zybalto]

My money is on the stats being misleading

Free to believe that but the feelings over facts thing rarely works out (which is probably why its a meme).

As much as it would be humorous to see a top 5 team for shooting% the last 5 years finish with the lowest in NHL history (along with Vegas who are even lower ATM), I just dont see it happening.

 

[ULF_55]

So will it go a full period with those lines?

 

[Twine Tickler]

I got no feel for this game TBH.

I'm excited to see how the new line combos work out, but I'm also not looking forward to trying to break this slump against a very good team, with Freddy revenge narratives.

I posted on Friday how we needed to beat SJ, because I f***ing knew we'd lose the B2B against PITT. Now we are in a really tough spot against the toughest opponent we've had to face. Just not ideal at all. 4 game losing streak is a very real possibility unfortunately.

I just have this gut feeling that Freddy is going to absolutely shut the f***ing door tonight.

 

[SprDaVE]

I can respect the calmness and what not, and I don't expect him/them to lose their crap about it since they are pro's but... This isn't about this being the 6th game of the season. The more they understand, the better they will be for it.

 

[Zybalto]

It is also really weird as Andy has been a historically slow starter. I feel like big goalies often are.

I have been following the Canes post games and they seem pretty pleased with his play.

So have I TBH.

I also thought Mrazek looked really sharp despite the injury (and that game was a bit of a mess too)

The problem with Andersen has really been consistency the last 3 years and it got more and more consistently bad. His last three games have also been against 3 of the weakest offensive teams in the league as well so lets see him in against the Leafs (if they finally have some finish in them).

 

[zeke]

That is good at least. I'm guessing they do a weighted averaged based on numbers of games played per year and the stats for each year. As a result likely has a much bigger impact from previous years. If they are just averaging the stats across years without taking into consideration game played it is a bad analysis

It's much more than just a simple "weight by season" calculation, too.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

It's much more than just a simple "weight by season" calculation, too.

Of course, the game score per season would be done with a regression analysis as you said but determining the weighted average across seasons would be pretty straightforward with some minor correction factors to account for recency bias as you mentioned that they do.

If the methodology/math isn't hidden behind a paywall i would be interested to take a look if you have the link

 

[Racer88]

My gut feeling is expecting a big win by the Leafs tonight………or I have simple indigestion

 

[stickty111]

Like the forward lines. Don't like the defence pairs being unchanged

 

[ULF_55]

I didn't see Ritchie as a top 6 forward, I thought Mikheyev was gonna be there.
He'll be first to puck, and be able to be on the other team faster than anyone on the team.
Wasn't expecting him to light the lamp, but to disrupt the other team with his speed.

 

[Burnie97]

Man... Carolina has to troll every f***ing team.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

So have I TBH.

I also thought Mrazek looked really sharp despite the injury (and that game was a bit of a mess too)

The problem with Andersen has really been consistency the last 3 years and it got more and more consistently bad. His last three games have also been against 3 of the weakest offensive teams in the league as well so lets see him in against the Leafs (if they finally have some finish in them).

Ya definitely Andy has run hot and cold throughout the last few years. Definitely seems to be a confidence thing and likely he wouldn't be putting up those number is Toronto. Sometimes a new start is necessary for both parties. Always seemed like a nice guy so glad to see him do well. Dug a young pretty poor defensive leaf team out of some deep holes early in his career here.

 

[MarMarSab3]

So Liljegren sits again while useless Holl plays, unbelievable.

 

[stickty111]

Yeah the last game was terrible but anyone with their eyes in working order who haws watched all the other games can't possibly think that we've been playing badly all season.

We played good in game 1
Awful in game 2
Great in game 3 and 4
Awful in game 5 and 6
Pretty much equal

 

[Ciao]

will be interesting to see how they respond after that good ol' shalacking.

I don't think they're on the rebound yet. Still in a period of suspended disbelief.

As much as I like the the Leafs, I think they will lose to unbeaten Carolina and winless Chicago before they begin to turn it around.

I hope I'm wrong here.

 

[Byron Bitz]

So Liljegren sits again while useless Holl plays, unbelievable.

Holl and Muzzin have proven themselves to be a strong shut down pairing. I think it makes sense to give them a chance to try to get back to that.

 

[TiMo15]

Spezza and Simmonds both played great and showed up in the game. Not just Spezza scored two, and they made impact as well. Ritchie should realize that he had a very good opportunity for the first few games and he just let it go away. It's the right time to put him into the 4th line to build the confident back.

 

[AvroArrow]

Hoping the Canes spank this team so Shanahan or MLSE is forced to do something, aka fire Dubas and Keefe.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I can respect the calmness and what not, and I don't expect him/them to lose their crap about it since they are pro's but... This isn't about this being the 6th game of the season. The more they understand, the better they will be for it.

I don't really care what they say to media. It is more than clear that they are just going to feed lines... But that is not really different anywhere (unless you are Torts or something). As long as that is not their sentiment behind closed doors, then I could care less.

 

[hamzarocks]

It all depends on how you want to look at it I guess.

If you want to measure it in terms of effort, you can only go by looking at if they are outplaying their opponents and getting more opportunities. With the injuries, roster turnover and having one of the tougher schedules to start a season compared with other teams (Starting the season with a back to back, 3 in 4 and two back to backs against rested teams so far) how have the Leafs done for differentials?

Rankings this year (All situations):

Shots attempted differential: 1st in the NHL

Shot differential: 5th in the NHL

Scoring Chance differential: 3rd in the NHL

Expected Goal differential: 5th in the NHL

Actual Goal differential: 27th in the NHL

PDO(Team save%+shooting%): 27th in the NHL

Despite their tough schedule/injuries/tinkering, the Leafs appear to be one of the hardest-working teams in the league having no puck luck atm. I just hope their breakout comes against the Canes as they really do deserve a better record than their 2-3-1 so far.

What tough schedule?

Habs, Sens, Sens, Rags, Sharks and Pens

Which of those teams are tough? The Pens didn't even have 4 core players.

Leafs have had a soft schedule. They've failed to get points at an acceptable level as a team so far

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Like the forward lines. Don't like the defence pairs being unchanged

They put Dermott back in for Liljegren.

 

[glue]

About time he split M & M, Nylander deserves a promotion

sorry, know sarcasm doesn't translate well through text, my mistake.

Just heard a lot this summer about how stubborn Keefe was and how he'd never split Marner/Matthews

He was quite stubborn in ever splitting them pretty much like Babcock, but glad he’s come around

I can respect the calmness and what not, and I don't expect him/them to lose their crap about it since they are pro's but... This isn't about this being the 6th game of the season. The more they understand, the better they will be for it.

Agree, he should talk less and do more, let’s see

 

[VanW27]

So will it go a full period with those lines?

I like Kerfoot moving up, honestly he's probably our best offensive "LW", he's just been forced into a defensive role in his Leaf career.

I do not like the 4th line though, lack of foot speed is going to be a real problem. Pretty much anytime the 4th line hasn't had Engvall on it to provide some speed and two way play the last few years it's been terrible. One positive about it though could be Simmonds/Ritchie feeding of each other and ramping up the physicality, not expecting it but hoping for some big hits and scraps out of them.