GDT: Game 7: Ducks @ Coyotes - 7PM - FSAZ - Chayka in Jail Edition

[_Del_]

And anyway, skill is useless if it isn't employed.

Schmaltz is our most talented or skilled forward, but it doesn't mean anything if he's not consistently effective. Give me more effective guys every day of the week.

 

[The Feckless Puck]

Schmaltz is our most talented or skilled forward, but it doesn't mean anything if he's not consistently effective. Give me more effective guys every day of the week.

My comparable is Garland. He's the same size as Keller, doesn't have quite the same shot, but he has a ton more hustle and opportunism. He has a higher career shooting percentage than Keller does (12.3% to Keller's 9.1%). He's a career +4 to Keller's -36. He has the same number of powerplay goals as Keller in 122 fewer games. This season, Garland has 27 shots in 7 games, while Keller has 18.

And even so, I wouldn't pay Garland $7.2 million a year, because for all of his motor and drive, his disappearing act that happens in chunks of each season is problematic. I'd probably top out at $5M/year, and I wouldn't go over 4 years of commitment.

Look, this is just my opinion. I'm sure I'll get pushback from better observers of the game, people with more faith in potential, people in love with pure skill. But for me, Garland - the less-skilled player between the two - is infinitely more valuable to the franchise at this point than Keller is. Call it intangibles if you like. But if I had to pick one or the other to protect in the expansion draft, it'd be Garland.

 

[Mosby]

Disagree. He's a third year pro out of college. He only has three NHL games under his belt.
I wouldn't expect him to become a top pairing D or anything, but guys usually show a jump in their third year if they are going to. This is make or break time. He honestly looked pretty good last night, imo. If he can take a regular shift by the TDL, that's huge for us.

I think he can take a regular shift now. I just don't think he's ever going to be more than a 6th D.

 

[The Feckless Puck]

I think he can take a regular shift now. I just don't think he's ever going to be more than a 6th D.

Probably not. He doesn't have size, and he's got only average defensive skills. But I could see him as a 6th or 7th D on the right side once Soderstrom jumps him in the depth chart.

 

[GhostofTommyBolin]

If I were the Coyotes, I'd practically be begging Seattle to take Keller off my hands in June. He's always been poor defensively, but now he's poor defensively and making $7 million a year. Yeah, he's only 22, but I don't see his career arc scaling upward at the rate where he's worth that kind of money. You think losing the draft picks was bad, the Keller contract is eventually going to be the worst thing that Chayka did while it hangs like a weight around the neck of the franchise for...*checks notes*...the next seven freaking years.

His NMC doesn't kick in for a few years, so they better starting working the phones now to see if someone is dumb enough to take him. Or sit back and giggle when Seattle does.

 

[Coyotedroppings]

It may be subtle nuance on my part but I think we're missing more skills than raw shooting talent. And anyway, skill is useless if it isn't employed.



Well, we'll have to agree to disagree about whether Keller is untouchable. I do agree that we need to see Keller under a different coach before writing him off. And to be frank, I don't think BA is going to expose Keller anyway.

But I do feel skeptical about everyone telling me, "Just wait - Keller's gonna prove out the value of his contract in a few years." That would presuppose a maturation of his game - but over the past couple of years, I haven't seen any maturation of his game... the opposite, really. Chayka bet big on him suddenly breaking out at the NHL level at some point in the next couple of years. I guess I question exactly when his Come to Hockey Jesus epiphany is going to happen.

He’s been better this year already.

 

[Jakey53]

True, but it matters to get the C's in place, everything else revolves around that. We brought in Hall (League MVP), did it make a difference? Nope! The C position has to be addressed first, that's all I'm saying.

Hall put up decent stats. One player can't do it all. If we had two or three Halls, and even if they were all wingers, I think we would see a big difference.

 

[Jakey53]

While I do think the Yotes could do with more talent overall, I don't think it's an excuse for getting shut out so often (especially consecutively). It can certainly be a factor, but I don't think it's unreasonable to state that this team is for sure talented enough to at least score 1 goal per game.

We all know this team CAN score on Vegas, for example. They had the talent to put up 5 on them the game before they got shut out. So something just isn't quite right with this team to suddenly not be able to score a single goal in 6 periods straight even though they have looked like they've been playing "well".

If they were looking like crap all over the ice and were lucky to hang on to just allowing one goal, then sure... it's talent. But that hasn't been the case. Both games have been competitive and the Yotes actually didn't look bad in general.

This has being going on for two years so I'm starting to think it's a little more than coaching. Maybe the players want to get RT fired?

 

[Jakey53]

I agree with your first two points there...but exposing Keller? lol dont get crazy.

The kid is still 22 years old and hasnt scored below 44 points since playing in the league. He may not become a dominant player that drives the play on a line (still could be)....but I am fine with him being a complementary piece in the Top 6 any day.

Keller a complementary piece at over 7 mil a year? I guess it depends on what you mean by complementary. I mean, he is a soft one dimensional player, and the only thing he is good for is production, and if we look at his production and the money he is getting paid we scream bloody murder. It takes four or five years before some of these players break out so Keller still has time, but maybe Chayka was wrong by giving Keller that contract. I was almost positive he would be close to a PPG player this year.

 

[Jakey53]

I think he can take a regular shift now. I just don't think he's ever going to be more than a 6th D.

That's fine by me. More D depth the better.

 

[The Feckless Puck]

His NMC doesn't kick in for a few years...

Holy crap. Somehow, I didn't even know that there was a NTC/NMC clause built into his contract. We have less than three years to decide whether paying him a total of $57 million is worth 40 points a season.

 

[Sm00chy]

Keller a complementary piece at over 7 mil a year? I guess it depends on what you mean by complementary. I mean, he is a soft one dimensional player, and the only thing he is good for is production, and if we look at his production and the money he is getting paid we scream bloody murder. It takes four or five years before some of these players break out so Keller still has time, but maybe Chayka was wrong by giving Keller that contract. I was almost positive he would be close to a PPG player this year.

The reason I am not giving up on Keller is because he is 22 and has shown flashes of elite puck skills/hands IMO...something this team desperately lacks. If he was currently 25 or 26 I would be ok with exposing him.

 

[Jakey53]

The reason I am not giving up on Keller is because he is 22 and has shown flashes of elite puck skills/hands IMO...something this team desperately lacks. If he was currently 25 or 26 I would be ok with exposing him.

I'm not giving up on him either as it usually takes four to five years for players to break out unless you have a McDavid like talent. Having said that, he has to be better than what he has shown so far this year.

 

[Coyotedroppings]

I'm not giving up on him either as it usually takes four to five years for players to break out unless you have a McDavid like talent. Having said that, he has to be better than what he has shown so far this year.

Always improve and thus far he has. He's stealing pucks on a level that is nearing Schmaltz, better in the corners.... I think/hope improvement keeps happening.

 

[Art.Vandelay]

My comparable is Garland. He's the same size as Keller, doesn't have quite the same shot, but he has a ton more hustle and opportunism. He has a higher career shooting percentage than Keller does (12.3% to Keller's 9.1%). He's a career +4 to Keller's -36. He has the same number of powerplay goals as Keller in 122 fewer games. This season, Garland has 27 shots in 7 games, while Keller has 18.

I've made that same comparison. Garland works hard on ever shift and isn't afraid of contact so he's constantly fighting for the puck. Keller is more likely to float and see what happens and it drives me nuts.

 

[The Feckless Puck]

I'm not giving up on him either as it usually takes four to five years for players to break out...

...and that's why a lot of us don't like his contract. By the time his largesse for development is used up, we'll be stuck with him because of his NTC that converts into a full NMC.

Right now Keller still has value because there is still a significant group of people who value potential. But two or three years down the road, and Keller is still only putting up 40 points a year? Nobody in their right mind is going to want to take him off our hands - not only because of the money, but because of those two extremely heavy sledgehammers his agent will have preventing movement.

This whole story is about risk management, and whether this franchise wants to ride out this very sketchy bet or if we want to use the situation to a longer-term advantage.

 

[Vinny Boombatz]

I'd float Keller for a 1st plus plus for sure. He needs help to drive the play and when you're paying a player $7M, I'm expecting him to be able to drive the play. He can't, he'd be more than a PPG for teams with good centers as he's got unbelievable skill, but he needs those grinders in the corners and puck retrievers to help his game.

 

[Sm00chy]

I'm not giving up on him either as it usually takes four to five years for players to break out unless you have a McDavid like talent. Having said that, he has to be better than what he has shown so far this year.

100% agree. He seemed to take a solid step forward in the playoffs last year, but seems to be a little lost out there so far this season. Simply put...this team needs offensive production from him.

 

[Name Nameless]

I'd float Keller for a 1st plus plus for sure. He needs help to drive the play and when you're paying a player $7M, I'm expecting him to be able to drive the play. He can't, he'd be more than a PPG for teams with good centers as he's got unbelievable skill, but he needs those grinders in the corners and puck retrievers to help his game.

Still like Keller, so there is nothing personal here. But if you retain max, that should increase the haul, right? Of course, that would use up a retainment-slot for a decade. But high picks and A-level prospects?

 

[RemoAZ]

I'm not giving up on him either as it usually takes four to five years for players to break out unless you have a McDavid like talent. Having said that, he has to be better than what he has shown so far this year.

We need to see more from Keller and need to see what Hayton can do. I'd go with Keller Hayton Schmaltz for at least 10 games in a row. See if Schmaltz can play that Kane role and try to squeeze offense out of Hayton and Keller. Then I'd go with Crouse Dvo Garland. That gets all your guys you want/expect to be here long term in the top six. Give them the most minutes which should aid in their development and let us know what direction we need to go in the off season.

Keller Hayton Schmaltz
Crouse Dvo Garland
Caggiula Brassard Kessel

 

[PuckLife]

We need to see more from Keller and need to see what Hayton can do. I'd go with Keller Hayton Schmaltz for at least 10 games in a row. See if Schmaltz can play that Kane role and try to squeeze offense out of Hayton and Keller. Then I'd go with Crouse Dvo Garland. That gets all your guys you want/expect to be here long term in the top six. Give them the most minutes which should aid in their development and let us know what direction we need to go in the off season.

Keller Hayton Schmaltz
Crouse Dvo Garland
Caggiula Brassard Kessel

I agree 100%