It's such an odd thing to see players be put in a position to fail, fail, then be replaced by older players with no real significant potential, who are as bad, or in most cases worse and the organization act like they gave them a chance or care about development.
GDT: Game 50 @ Predators 5pm
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hohosaregood
Banned
- Sep 1, 2011
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I'd say Ferraro, Eklund, and Smith have developed the most this season. Zetterlund's fallen off the most. Celebrini is great already and is clearly going through the learning process. Thrun bounces up and down a lot.
There's not really anybody else to develop there. Cardwell and Graf look like they'll take spots next year though. And honestly pretty disappointed by Gushchin's season since he's been sent down.
There's not really anybody else to develop there. Cardwell and Graf look like they'll take spots next year though. And honestly pretty disappointed by Gushchin's season since he's been sent down.
OrrNumber4
Registered User
- Jul 25, 2002
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This is the heart of the issue. What's considered being put in a position to fail/succeed? How much is on the player or management? What's reasonable to expect of a young player, and what's fair to expect of a rebuilding/contending team?
But this might be the team not wanting a young player being overwhelmed/steamrolled. E.g., send Thompson to the AHL where he can work on his game, and let Rutta get slammed in the NHL.
Anomie2029
Registered User
weastern bias
worst team in the league
Just an incorrect opinion, both top picks have CLEARLY improved as the season has progressed
Star Platinum
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- May 11, 2024
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I think Smith has gotten better. Celebrini was already good and now he's having to adjust to what teams are doing to slow him down. The guys on defense are not really guys we are developing, but I will say Ferraro has gotten much steadier than he was at the beginning of the year. The only guy that has gotten significant minutes on defense that was someone we could develop is Liljegren and honestly, I can see why Toronto gave up on him, though not necessarily for the reason their fans said. I don't see him getting physically overwhelmed as much as I see him be careless with the puck and unaware of where he needs to be defensively at times. But as a 3rd pairing RD for next year, I'm fine with him. Ceci, Thrun, Rutta, and Walman just are what they are IMO - Walman's production is due more to having more opportunity here than he did in Detroit.
The part that frustrates me with the coaching is that you would think guys would get more cohesive over time and I don't really think that's true. The forwards don't come back to support the defense consistently when they need to, somebody doesn't cover for defenders when they pinch, and we just don't look cohesive bringing the puck up the ice. To me, those are coaching issues.
Anomie2029
Registered User
"Ferraro has been getting much steadier than he was at the beginning of the year" and "Thrun is just what he is" is amazing.
Net rating courtesy of Hockey Stat Cards:
Net rating courtesy of Hockey Stat Cards:
Development in a rookie season isn’t always about getting better. It’s also about experiencing adversity. It’s 50 games into this team forging a new identity through young players and a young coach. Just let it all wash over you and enjoy the game. They may be the worst in the league still but you can see the potential there with Celebrini, Eklund, Smith, and Askarov. They just need time.
Well, it's fairly simple if the organization can properly assess their own players. If we look at the AHL callups from this year.
Daniil Gushchin's only path to success in the NHL is as a top 6 winger. This seems fairly obvious when you consider his play style. Besides his obvious lack of height, he is a finesse player with a high level of offensive skill. In his entire career, including with the Barracuda, he has been asked to and succeeded when playing on the top 2 lines. To then put him on a 3rd or 4th line in the NHL and think that he's going establish himself as well as gel and succeed with grinders is most definitely putting him in a position to fail. Of course, we are all aware of the "ol' boys' club" mentality that you have to earn the right to play in the top 6, but it's an organizational failure from the top down to not objectively analyze your players and prospects and put them in situations where you can get the most out of them. If that's not the goal, then you're simply doing it wrong.
Collin Graf and Ethan Cardwell have the attributes and capabilities that are more suited to middle 6 or bottom 6 roles. Graf has the size and hockey IQ to do well. Cardwell has the tenacity and speed. Both have done relatively well in their opportunities to play down in the lineup. Graf struggled playing with both Celebrini and Granlund (at 5 on 5) but has had better results with Wennberg. Playing Graf on the top 2 lines has not gone well up to this point. I can understand why they were giving him a chance given that he was leading all AHL rookies in scoring, but he's not a clear top 6 winger by any means. Putting him down the lineup gives him a much better chance to succeed.
When considering the situational expectations, on a rebuilding team the lease should be considerably longer than on a contender. For someone like Gushchin, in his current state, he wouldn't sniff any ice time on a contender right now barring catastrophic injuries. However, on a rebuilding team, like the Sharks, with very few top 6 wingers, he should be given a fair amount of run on the top 2 lines to see if there's anything there. I'd say like 10+ games at least with either Celebrini or Granlund. Graf and Cardwell on the other hand could contribute on the bottom lines of a contender with very simple expectations and a short leash. On a rebuilding team, they should get much longer run on the middle lines with PK responsibilities.
This cuts both ways. You can't protect them from the rigors of the NHL both mentally and physically. If they can't handle it when given the opportunity to play with low expectations, should anyone expect them to handle it better when the expectations are higher? I'm not advocating for throwing everyone into the fire, but with the Sharks' roster, at least give them a shot and see what happens. It will give you some indication about their long term future with the organization.
Star Platinum
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I don't really think Hockey Stat Cards are all that, to be honest.
I think I really lost my patience with the Sharks in this regard just recently when injuries hit and in response, Dellandrea got promoted to the second line. Someone's going to have to tell me why we need to have him at all, let alone why he's getting promoted to the top 6. Him, Grundstrom, Kostin, I don't really see why these guys need to be where they are.
There's absolutely no reason we couldn't have had young players cycle in and out of the lineup. But we haven't, for years. Gushchin isn't working out on the Sharks? Send him down and call up another winger. Graf and Cardwell could easily have been getting bottom six time this season. I do not understand this need for us to have plugs on the bottom lines. It's absolutely pointless. And we gave an extra year of term to Dellandrea and Grundstrom, too. We'll be doing this again next year with them, unless we can throw them into a trade.
I feel like some people don't want anyone getting NHL time unless they've "earned" it. It's very "entry level job, five years of experience required" to me. We're a rebuilding team, and the worst team in the league. This is the perfect environment to give new faces ice time. Who knows, maybe one of them grows enough to be trade bait, if that's what you're into.
OrrNumber4
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- Jul 25, 2002
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Devil's advocate:
1) If Gushchin were going to be a top-6 forward, then at age 21-22 he would be tearing up the AHL. Perhaps the Sharks believed that his path to the NHL was as a complementary depth forward, and he would need to be well-rounded. Possibly, his 10 games showed them that he isn't there...
2) Maybe they wanted to see if Gushchin could handle NHL size/speed or show he could be decent defensively. He can be on any line for that.
3) True, he didn't play with great linemates or have easy minutes, but at least IMO Gushchin was very unimpressive in his ten-game-stint. I'd like him to get another chance, especially since Grundstrom and Dellandrea haven't wowed, but hope is fading fast.
It sounds like you have negligible differences with how Cardwell and Graf are being handled. Let me add that it's tough to assess Graf's play in the top 6 when the entire team has been awful these past few games.
I feel you, and I think given how the other players have performed Gushchin should get a call-up (though his AHL numbers aren't helping his case). But, I think it's possible that Grier and the Sharks just don't see him as having that much potential. It requires some faith that the scouting of the Sharks can recognize what they do and do not have...
All of this is to say that the Sharks may be handling these players differently than you'd like because their evaluation of the talent is different.
Anomie2029
Registered User
They’re definitely not “all that”. But they’re a pretty good guide when looking at a relatively large sample.
Dicdonya
Registered User
- Jul 21, 2011
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Clearly huh? Feel free to explain why you are so certain because for me I do not think Smith looks any different really.
First 21 games for Smith, and second 21 games for Smith-
ALL STRENGTHS PER 60
| POINTS | SHOTS | ICF | IFF | ISCF | IDHCF | GIVEAWAYS | TAKEAWAYS | HITS | BLOCKS |
| 2.02 | 6.06 | 12.92 | 8.68 | 6.66 | 1.01 | 3.23 | .61 | 1.01 | 0.4 |
| 1.56 | 5.47 | 13.88 | 9.19 | 6.06 | 1.17 | 4.11 | .98 | .78 | .98 |
Where is the CLEAR improvement?
Also I wont make another table unless you think I am lying about it, but his on ice stats are almost all worse/even in the second half of his season than the first as well.
Smith is still EXACTLY the same player he was to start the year as he is now. He takes too long to make decisions, he does not skate 100% on every shift, he shows flashes of brilliant play sandwiched by a lot of mediocre to bad play, and he is by far the softest player I think I have ever seen.
So again tell me how my opinion is incorrect, because his on ice play looks the same as it has all year, and his stats do not paint a different picture.
Now for comparison I will concede that Celebrini has indeed improved some over the year.
| POINTS | SHOTS | ICF | IFF | ISCF | IDHCF | GIVEAWAYS | TAKEAWAYS | HITS | BLOCKS |
| 2.54 | 9.7 | 18.13 | 13.36 | 8.9 | 2.07 | 5.57 | 1.11 | 2.23 | 2.39 |
| 2.95 | 10.48 | 20.62 | 16.86 | 9.49 | 2.78 | 3.93 | .98 | .82 | 2.13 |
Also once again unless you think I am lying, his on ice stats are almost all either better/even than his first 19 games.
Now I do still think Celebrini has been playing pretty similar all year from an eye test perspective, but at least unlike Smith, his underlying stats do indeed paint a picture that he is actually doing better in the second half of his season so far, so as I said I will concede that Celebrini has indeed shown some growth over the year.
However that leads to the next discussion. Is Celebrini doing better because of coaching, or because he is an elite talent with a very strong personal desire to improve independent of coaching, and by simply playing in the NHL he was bound to improve over the course of the year?
Dunno, that's a lot harder to prove one way or the other. However since I do not really think Warsofsky has proven to be a good coach, I certainly lean towards Celebrini himself being the main factor in his improvement.
I think Smith has shown flashes but hasn't really improved yet from the start of the season. I don't really think he has to for the season to be good and useful for him and the team. Though after this season, I would have fairly high expectations of him next season. For him to stay in the top-9 next season, he'll need to elevate his game and find more consistency. For Smith this season, it's just about the experience regardless of the play quality, imo.
I understand you split the season in half but it misses the point. Smith went pointless his first 14 games then moved to wing had legit top 6 linemates (Granlund) and produced for a few games. He had a maintenance day or minor injury then came back to playing with bottom 6 linemates (Goodrow) and performed horribly for that time. He got benched which he responded with better defensive focus that got him promoted to play again with top 6 linemates (Granlund) and he magically produced again.
This is absolutely coaching. Warsofsky is not blindly playing him with Granlund and has specific details he wants to see from Smith that has nothing to do with points. So he uses ice time and quality of linemates to motivate Smith to focus on those details. Once he showed improvement he promoted him to play with Granlund again.
I know it is easy to just blame the coach and split the season in half to fit a narrative but anyone watching the Smith from the beginning of the season and Smith now can absolutely see improvement in his game.
It’s also more than just producing points that Smith needs for development. If the goal was for Smith to get as many points as possible (like what is happening for Michkov and Hudson) then he would be PP1 and stapled to Granlund. I am thankful that the coaches aren’t just wanting empty points from him and are working on details with him such as picking picks up of the boards or defensive intensity.
If you want to get more clarity on the development of Smith I would recommend reading the article Sheng Peng posted about Smith. It explains a lot of things that stat watching doesn’t.
- Jul 25, 2007
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I appreciate the effort to quantify this. What I'd say for Celebrini is that the stats and the eye test show that his game is maturing. Game 1, he was absolutely a bat out of hell, but totally chaotic and high-event. Some great defensive plays, but also blew a tire on the game losing goal. Some great offensive plays, but also a ton of unnecessary high turnovers leading to rush chances against. He has matured already in just 40 games since then, and he STILL looks young and raw, which is great because it shows there's still a lot of room for improvement. As for Smith, I think that below summarizes it well.
Agreed with pretty much all of it. You can't necessarily see it in the stats, but he has been a more reliable player including getting top line or top 6 minutes and creating chances in them -- I bet if you isolated the last 2-3 games his stats would have a major jump particularly in on-ice xGF, possibly even xGA. But his game to game is highly variable, so an averaging of stats isn't going to tell the whole story. Eye test shows he's volatile but improving, and continuing to show spikes here and there, which is all we really want to see out of a 19yo.
1. That approach shows an odd lack of ability to properly evaluate the player and his history. Depth forwards are rarely 5'9" finesse players with high offensive skill. To me that would point to a bigger organizational issue.
His performance in the AHL has been solid. He didn't step in like Pavelski or Couture and destroy the AHL because he doesn't seem to have that kind of upside at this point. But given the current state of the Sharks, he's one of the best options they have to play with Celebrini and Granlund and produce.
2. This relates to the first point and shows a lack of awareness on how to get the most out of your players. Gushchin does need to be passable defensively, but given his offensive skill, you want to nurture and maximize his effect on the game in that way. It's what he is best at. Putting him in a position where he can rarely utilize his best attributes is asking him to play a totally different style of game and neutering his game. It's putting him in a position to fail.
3. You are totally correct that he was unimpressive, but he was put in a bad position and he failed. It was expected given his deployment. Reminds me of Steve Bernier when he came into the league and they threw him into the bottom 6. Didn't go well, was sent back to the AHL for months. Then they brought him back and gave him a chance to succeed with Michalek and Marleau and suddenly they had something.
That's fair, but even then, Graf has been absolutely crushed when playing with Macklin and Smith, as well as with Granlund. He's fared better with Kunin and Wennberg.
I agree that their evaluation of talent is different, but I don't think it's unfair to question it. I still have concerns about the organization's ability to develop players and as well as fill out the NHL roster.
Wedontneedroads
Registered User
We can play armchair GM all we want with ELCs, but it's bad business to f*** around with talented young player's careers like that. If a player is good enough to develop in the NHL you do it. Development is all about resistance levels. You want the resistance as high as possible as long as the player is maintaining an appropriate level of success. Playing Celebrini and Smith another year in college would have been detrimental to their development.
Do you really think Grier looks at Goodrow and says "I need an entire team of that". Nobody wants to play on the worst team in the NHL (hint hint, that's the Sharks). Grier is doing the best he can with what he has, and like you pointed out, we have to wait and see if some of those later picks hit.
We have no clue if Dickinson, Musty, Mukhamadullin, Chernyshov, Bystedt, Halttunen, Gushchin, Graf, Cagnoni, Pohlkamp, Wallenius, Lund, Svoboda, will hit, but that's a lot of quality lottery tickets. Unfortunately for those of us who are impatient we won't know for another 2/3 years for most of them, which is why I think it's absolutely crazy to be up in arms about blowing a lead in game 50 of another bottom 5 finish season.
This is exactly the mentality I'm talking about. You are expecting a perfectly linear development curve for young players and that's simply not how it works. Saying Celebrini and Smith haven't gotten better is absolutely crazy to me. Smith has cleaned up so many of the little details he struggled with early in the season, and I'm a full believer that if he can add strength and speed as he gets older he has the potential to be a true 2C or even a 1W. Unfortunately for the impatient folks on these boards we won't know if he can make those improvements until he biologically becomes a man. He is a Sophomore for crying out loud. How many Sophomore's in college did you know that had the size/strength/speed of a professional 26 year old?
To be clear, my main aspirations for this year are that Celebrini and Smith both prove they can play at the NHL level. I believe they can from what I've seen so far. From here it's up to them to put the work in over the next few off seasons to add the physical attributes they will need to physically dominate once they are 23/24.
Juxtaposer
Outro: Divina Comedia
Sorry, am I to believe there are people here who genuinely think it would be better for the organization if we'd left Smith and Celebrini in college this season?
I'm so sorry, but I just can't believe that could possibly be true. If a guy can hang in the NHL that's almost always the best place for them to be. Celebrini's and Smith's rookie seasons were always going to be tough seasons, postponing it another year just delays the rebuild.
I also just can't possibly believe someone could watch Will Smith (or Celebrini for that matter) over the last few games and suggest that he isn't better than he was game 1 of the season. Possession stats on this dumpster fire of a team are quite literally meaningless. And possession stats for teenagers on bad teams are always, always, ALWAYS in the toilet. No exceptions.
I get the feeling that some people were genuinely expecting this team to be close to the playoffs this season, despite the extensive discussion pre-season about how insane that thought was. The forward core is solid but extremely young. The defense is an absolute TIRE FIRE. The goaltending is awful, Askarov aside. I can't believe we're at game 50 and people still can't understand that this team is not built to win games, it's build to not get blown out of them. We have one single legitimate top-4 defenseman (who is extremely inconsistent), two legitimate #5D, and a bunch of #7 types. You cannot win games with that formula. It's really not that complicated.
I'm so sorry, but I just can't believe that could possibly be true. If a guy can hang in the NHL that's almost always the best place for them to be. Celebrini's and Smith's rookie seasons were always going to be tough seasons, postponing it another year just delays the rebuild.
I also just can't possibly believe someone could watch Will Smith (or Celebrini for that matter) over the last few games and suggest that he isn't better than he was game 1 of the season. Possession stats on this dumpster fire of a team are quite literally meaningless. And possession stats for teenagers on bad teams are always, always, ALWAYS in the toilet. No exceptions.
I get the feeling that some people were genuinely expecting this team to be close to the playoffs this season, despite the extensive discussion pre-season about how insane that thought was. The forward core is solid but extremely young. The defense is an absolute TIRE FIRE. The goaltending is awful, Askarov aside. I can't believe we're at game 50 and people still can't understand that this team is not built to win games, it's build to not get blown out of them. We have one single legitimate top-4 defenseman (who is extremely inconsistent), two legitimate #5D, and a bunch of #7 types. You cannot win games with that formula. It's really not that complicated.
Hodge
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- Apr 27, 2021
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How can you possibly still claim he has "a high level of offensive skill"? Relative to what? Certainly not NHL or even AHL players and, no, that's not because the Sharks failed to develop him properly. I wish him the best of luck on Vladivostok's third line next season.
Hodge
Registered User
- Apr 27, 2021
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Not surprising that you and many others miss this fundamental point: it is the year 2025 and every NHL org has the ability to pull up every single shift of every single player in every single professional or major junior league at the click of a button. They all have RFID data on these players beyond anything we can access in the public domain.
If Gushchin or Bordeleau or [insert prospect you think was failed by Sharks development] is actually good, why haven't other teams tried to trade for them? It's not like they would be expensive to acquire. Could it be, perhaps, that they have simply done nothing at any level to indicate to anyone in the entire industry that they have a future as useful NHL players?
