GDT: Game 46 - Winnipeg Jets @ Toronto Maple Leafs - Wednesday, January 24th, 2024 - 6:00pm CST - Sportsnet - CJOB/Power 97

[Inanna]

According to the prediction thread there seems to be at least a dozen closet Leafs fans on this board......oh the shame they must feel

Maybe the shame is why they're in the closet?

 

[surixon]

I don't mind adding Ehlers to PP2 but I hope Bones actually runs the units evenly. I have little expectations unit 1 will accomplish much of anything.

 

[enuffidiotsalready]

fun fact:

leafs are great for wiping your ass

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

On paper - PP2 >>> PP1

 

[WaveRaven]

fun fact:

leafs are great for wiping your ass

Not all of them

I really wish we weren't playing the laughs tonight.

 

[enuffidiotsalready]

Not all of them

I really wish we weren't playing the laughs tonight.

ALL OF THEM!!!
seriously though i shit on leafs

 

[Ggg99]

So looking forward to this game. Just pound the Leafs please.

 

[LowLefty]

I don't mind adding Ehlers to PP2 but I hope Bones actually runs the units evenly. I have little expectations unit 1 will accomplish much of anything.

I don't think there is a unit one at this point - more about 2 completely different looks where one or both might get it done. We are up against a weak goaltender who has struggled - maybe the net front / chaos in the crease / shooting gallery approach is all you need to unsettle this guy.

I see the other group as the more talented so maybe they can make something happen via creativity / skill while the other group does it the hard way - crash the net and let the rubber fly.

It'll be interesting if nothing else - At least they are completely different / dismantled - which is what some were asking for.

 

[WaveRaven]

ALL OF THEM!!!
seriously though i shit on leafs

Well poison ivy leaves would be quite the experience no ?

 

[Gabe Kupari]

Well poison ivy leaves would be quite the experience no ?

Its ok to shit on them just don’t wipe with them.

 

[surixon]

I don't think there is a unit one at this point - more about 2 completely different looks where one or both might get it done. We are up against a weak goaltender who has struggled - maybe the net front / chaos in the crease / shooting gallery approach is all you need to unsettle this guy.

I see the other group as the more talented so maybe they can make something happen via creativity / skill while the other group do it the hard way - crash the net and let the rubber fly.

It'll be interesting if nothing else - At least they are completely different / dismantled - which is what some were asking for.

My concern with the one unit is if they are going to be able to gain possesion and set up. We shall see how things play out.

 

[LowLefty]

My concern with the one unit is if they are going to be able to gain possesion and set up. We shall see how things play out.

If you're referring to the Lowry line, they have a good FO man so hopefully they start with the puck.
As far as set up goes, I won't be surprised to see this group spend less time setting up and more time shooting and funneling it all toward the net.
Lowry and Iafalo will need to win those net front battles and the rest need to look for screens and getting the puck on net - simple.

 

[surixon]

If you're referring to the Lowry line, they have a good FO man so hopefully they start with the puck.
As far as set up goes, I won't be surprised to see this group spend less time setting up and more time shooting and funneling it all toward the net.
Lowry and Iafalo will need to win those net front battles and the rest need to look for screens and getting the puck on net - simple.

Winning the draw will be key for them. They don't have any natural zone entry specialists if the puck gets cleared.

Still, I'd expect Toronto to play a diamond against that unit and have a man taking away each of Pionk, JoMo and KC. It will be up to them to actually open up lanes.

I don't really like Perfetti with Iafallo and Toninato. Why not give Kupari a look playing with a skilled player.

 

[LowLefty]

Winning the draw will be key for them. They don't have any natural zone entry specialists if the puck gets cleared.

Still, I'd expect Toronto to play a diamond against that unit and have a man taking away each of Pionk, JoMo and KC. It will be up to them to actually open up lanes.

Yeah - they'll be looking to block the lanes / seams for sure - but if they are going to defend their net front, we shouldn't have a problem getting pucks on net through 3 defenders. JoMo, KC, and Pionk will be moving to open up lanes - they did it in the last game and although a little disorganized, it was effective in getting shots off. Between the 3 of them, it was the most movement I have seen on the PP in months.

Again, I don't see either group being positioned above the other - we'll see them both out there for extended PP time (>1min) and bones will go with what works - hopefully one of the groups gets something going. And I think against this goaltender, it'll be the group that gets the puck on net (lots).

 

[Aggie204]

Is #55 a game time decision?

 

[kanadalainen]

Is #55 a game time decision?

Nope, I think he's out.

I don't really like Perfetti with Iafallo and Toninato. Why not give Kupari a look playing with a skilled player.

Agree!

 

[Stumbledore]

Its ok to shit on them just don’t wipe with them.

Once again, it got creepy in here without any involvement from me.

 

[bustamente]

According to the prediction thread there seems to be at least a dozen closet Leafs fans on this board......oh the shame they must feel

Don't get me started on Fake Jets fans have a whole bunch of them in my family and it's a battle this time of year between me and my pops on one side and the idiots who actually own Jets jerseys but they get turfed on nights like tonight

 

[Gm0ney]

No one else with regular PP ice time has less than 4 GF/60.

Hell, scratch that. No one else in the LEAGUE with more than 100 minutes of PP ice time has less than 2 GF/60, and only 5 other players in the league has less than 4 GF/60.

Again, given the scoring chances generated with him on the ice, it's definitely a case of being incredibly snake bitten or cursed. But as a last ditch effort, I understand taking him off PP1.

Of course, Perfetti leads the team in GF/60 on the PP, so I can't say the reasoning completely holds water.

Ehlers is crazy underperforming his xGF/60. All the top forwards on the powerplay are underperforming to some extent. Bones has been shuffling the lines due to Vilardi and Connor's injuries.

Player (Unit)	GF/60	xGF/60	Diff	SCF/60	On-Ice SH%	On-Ice SV%	PDO
Gabriel Vilardi (1)	4.04​	8.64​	-4.60​	60.62​	6.25​	93.75​	1.000​
Mark Scheifele (1)	6.21​	7.76​	-1.55​	55.92​	11.02​	91.30​	1.023​
Nikolaj Ehlers (1-2)	1.98​	7.35​	-5.37​	55.51​	3.92​	100.00​	1.039​
Kyle Connor (1)	7.29​	7.27​	0.02​	56.04​	14.13​	85.71​	0.998​
Alex Iafallo (1-2)	6.21​	7.16​	-0.95​	53.86​	11.43​	88.89​	1.003​
Cole Perfetti (1-2)	7.86​	5.83​	2.03​	48.16​	17.78​	94.12​	1.119​
Vladislav Namestnikov (2)	6.22​	4.48​	1.74​	40.01​	15.91​	100.00​	1.159​
Nino Niederreiter (2)	4.50​	4.42​	0.08​	38.53​	12.28​	83.33​	0.956​

Compare to the 2018-19 forwards when the Jets powerplay was clicking (PP1 vs PP2 TOI was very clear, not much shuffling). Everyone's outperforming their xGF:

Player (F)	GF/60	xGF/60	Diff	SCF/60	On-Ice SH%	On-Ice SV%	PDO
Kyle Connor (1)	9.66​	8.41​	1.25​	57.36​	15.54​	93.1​	1.086​
Blake Wheeler (1)	9.18​	8.27​	0.91​	56.29​	15.1​	91.8​	1.069​
Mark Scheifele (1)	9.37​	8.26​	1.11​	56.42​	15.38​	92.06​	1.074​
Patrik Laine (1)	9.62​	8.11​	1.51​	56.23​	15.92​	91.8​	1.077​
Kevin Hayes (2)	8.01​	7.55​	0.46​	53.37​	17.65​	66.67​	0.843​
Nikolaj Ehlers (2)	6.7​	5.53​	1.17​	39.46​	15​	91.67​	1.067​
M. Perreault (2)	7.98​	4.95​	3.03​	39.35​	19.48​	90.48​	1.1​
Bryan Little (2)	8.41​	4.89​	3.52​	39.92​	19.28​	89.47​	1.088​

Individual xGF/60 was a bit higher: 2018-19 avg = 6.83, this year's avg = 6.61 (-0.22).
Individual GF/60 was a lot higher: 2018-19 avg = 8.77, this year's avg = 5.54 (-3.23)

Some of this overperformance is due to prime Wheeler and Laine - plus Scheifele in the slot. Kind of a perfect storm powerplay for the Jets. Lots of options for other teams to worry about. As was posted above the Jets main threat is long bombs from the blue line hoping for a tip, and Connor blasting from the circle (and he was out for 5 weeks and it's still clearly "the spot"). Too easy to take away...

 

[Mud Turtle]

Laine’s better!

Wait, are we passed that now?

 

[bustamente]

Laine’s better!

Wait, are we passed that now?

Our bravado got the better of us

 

[tbcwpg]

Always love reading TO forum on game day when we play em.



Love reading Leafs board on game day, always a source of entertainment. Leafs have some of the most knowledgeable and ignorant fans in all of sports.

LB is putting up a 2.18 and .923 while their starter and I use that term lightly, is at a 3.69 and cough cough chuckle, .369 goals against.

LB just won a cup playing meaningful minutes in Vegas's run

LB would be their starter this season, so if he is a career beer league goalie then they have a career beer league's minor affiliate back up goalie with Sammy.

I don't think it was serious.

 

[macmaroon]

Don't forget to get your guesses into the Prediction Contest thread while you still have time...

 

[Jets 31]

Well i look at it like this,if Toronto can't beat us with no Scheifele, Vilardi and Helly playing, shit will hit the fan over there on HF Leafs.

 

[Jetland162702]

Oh Mac. I don't know where get this stuff. Frickin Hilarious!!

"Just like the shingles virus, Mr Rogers doesn't care"

I hate playing the leafs, their offence scares me.