GDT: Game 4 White Out 8:45 Tonight

[raideralex99]

Agree, at this point. But it would be a consolation prize.

But just like the way Edm fans feel after losing a game they had in the bag yesterday, we would feel like sh*t if we lost this series after being up 3-0.

Didn't we get up 3-1 on the Oilers once before, wayyyy back in the mist, and then lose 3 straight?

We also did not win one game in the first 4 playoff series against the Oilers so I think its payback time.
I think the quicker the Jets can end this series the deeper they go into the playoffs.

 

[FinJetster]

Count me in (though I ain't gonna watch this one either live, as I won't (be able to) get up at 4.30 AM).

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

One game for Archibald, what a f’n joke from the bigger joke called NHL player safety , guy was targeting Stanley’s knee with an intent to injure, guy should have got 10!

Dirty move, any way you look at it = 1 gm
Direct retaliation = +1 gm
Deliberate attempt to injure = +1 gm

3 would have been a good minimum. I don't think he has a history. Maybe that last line should be +2.

 

[Neuf]

We're still underdogs, right?

 

[Edgar Halliwax]

I'm not superstitious at all. Which is why I have to share this image again tonight prior to game time

 

[Zhamnov5GoalGame]

Keep in mind that we have won 2 OT games and a 1 goal game that had 2 empty net goals.
No reason to think that the Oilers can't take this game.
Jets will need to crush their spirit early if they can.

NHL players have a lot of pride and will want to get a win.
No series is over until it is over so it would be good to get this one and see if some of our banged up guys can heal up a bit.

 

[Zhamnov5GoalGame]

Any word if there is a "dedicated" Jets vs Oilers channel in the event that the Leafs vs Habs game goes into OT?

 

[John Agar]

We're still underdogs, right?

Yes...

This is The Underdog Show...

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Awesome stuff as always, GingerPapa. It's sure nice to see the rogue's gallery seated around the table, albeit virtually

To answer the question asked in the prior PGT:



There absolutely is SOME skill. Like yes, Patrice Bergeron (who is a generational talent in the face-off circle) DOES win more than he loses. Just.. not that much more. This year he took 1,147 faceoffs in the regular season, but only won 62.2% of them. Of the players in the NHL favored to take faceoffs (i.e. they take them not by accident), he's head-and-shoulders the best.. and is still only about a 3:2 favorite.

Among the top 62 (which I picked cause 31 teams times 2 guys), only one other person is above 60% (Glendenning, 60.9% on 859 attempts). By the time you get to Vincent Trochek in 10th, its already 56.0% of 769.

And to give an example that I hope puts in some perspective of how much variance there is in "62.2%": Let's say we're playing a heads-up no limit hold'em freezeout. We each have 10,000 in chips. Blinds will be 100-200 the whole way, small blind on the button.

Now let's assume that I'm drunk ("Assume away." - Max Bialystock) and I am going to bet everything all-in preflop, every hand, without looking. Like, guaranteed. Like my chips are all in before the start of the hand, before card one comes out.

You, in this example, represent Patrice Bergeron. Obviously, all the skill is on your end, none in mine.

Yet through nothing but sheer variance alone, you still only have a 65%-ish chance of winning.

So yeah. Not that there's no skill. There IS some skill, and it IS sustainable (being good at FOs last year correlates to being good in subsequent years). And I know the physical chaos in athletics isn't quite (in most eyes) the same as 'pure' random chance in a card game, but hopefully this illustrates just what 'that much' variance looks like.

I have no idea what you just said.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

No goalie is responsible for a goal like that IMO, partially screened and partially deflected.......that’s no easily save. Either way, it doesn’t matter......Smith was amazing and Oilers best player in first two games by a wide margin we can agree on that. Game three both goalies had some amazing saves.

I’m hoping we win tonight big time.

It wasn't just a little bit screened either - and Josh changed position while also screened. It was a great goal by Josh.

 

[GNP]

Keep in mind that we have won 2 OT games and a 1 goal game that had 2 empty net goals.
No reason to think that the Oilers can't take this game.
Jets will need to crush their spirit early if they can.

NHL players have a lot of pride and will want to get a win.
No series is over until it is over so it would be good to get this one and see if some of our banged up guys can heal up a bit.

__________________________________________________

I was thinking exactly the same thing, and the Jets should come out with guns a blazing and put this series to rest. Don't underestimate the Oilers, they have the 2 best players in the world, and the games were very close, if you take away the empty net goals.

The Jets should not be cocky and overconfident, and come out with the same intensity, and game plan they employed in Games 1 & 2. I'd really not like to open the door, and have to go back to Edmonton, because anything can happen.

End it tonight boys !!!

 

[DRC]

This is the real test GJG

 

[Zhamnov5GoalGame]

I didn't want to post anything negative last night...
Holy crap how bad was Forbort?
Saying he turned it over 100% of the time he touched the puck would be an exaggeration...
But not by much.

I can't believe those mistakes didn't bury us beyond a come back.

Makes me wonder if we could move Stanley up with Pionk and Heinola with Poolman.
I know Maurice won't do that but Forbort seems like a grenade waiting to explode in our end (and every where else on the ice).

 

[GeorgeJETson]

Last GDT, I missed the flurry of goals in the third because I had to go to the can.

I'm not sure if I'm allowed to watch any more playoff games live anymore, as I have to be in the can for the remainder of the playoffs?

Hoping for a win tonight!

 

[Neuf]

Nature's whiteout

 

[SUX2BU]

Awesome stuff as always, GingerPapa. It's sure nice to see the rogue's gallery seated around the table, albeit virtually

To answer the question asked in the prior PGT:



There absolutely is SOME skill. Like yes, Patrice Bergeron (who is a generational talent in the face-off circle) DOES win more than he loses. Just.. not that much more. This year he took 1,147 faceoffs in the regular season, but only won 62.2% of them. Of the players in the NHL favored to take faceoffs (i.e. they take them not by accident), he's head-and-shoulders the best.. and is still only about a 3:2 favorite.

Among the top 62 (which I picked cause 31 teams times 2 guys), only one other person is above 60% (Glendenning, 60.9% on 859 attempts). By the time you get to Vincent Trochek in 10th, its already 56.0% of 769.

And to give an example that I hope puts in some perspective of how much variance there is in "62.2%": Let's say we're playing a heads-up no limit hold'em freezeout. We each have 10,000 in chips. Blinds will be 100-200 the whole way, small blind on the button.

Now let's assume that I'm drunk ("Assume away." - Max Bialystock) and I am going to bet everything all-in preflop, every hand, without looking. Like, guaranteed. Like my chips are all in before the start of the hand, before card one comes out.

You, in this example, represent Patrice Bergeron. Obviously, all the skill is on your end, none in mine.

Yet through nothing but sheer variance alone, you still only have a 65%-ish chance of winning.

So yeah. Not that there's no skill. There IS some skill, and it IS sustainable (being good at FOs last year correlates to being good in subsequent years). And I know the physical chaos in athletics isn't quite (in most eyes) the same as 'pure' random chance in a card game, but hopefully this illustrates just what 'that much' variance looks like.

oh look, a dog dragging his ass .....

 

[SUX2BU]

Upper Bowl is Posted. I have seats left for Members I missed. I have to do the Oilers GDT now so I'll circle back in a while to add everyon's names to their Avatar. Thank you all again for your patience. I had hoped the rink look would turn out better, but I didn't realize how large I'd made the images to start with. Oh well, at least we can see everyone. I'm learning

where the hell am I sitting, above the clock?

 

[AlphaLackey]

I have no idea what you just said.

TL;DR:

1. There is some skill in winning faceoffs, but tons of luck; only a couple with a serious sample size ever break 60% every year, it's about 55% outside the top 10.

2. There is some value to winning a faceoff, but not much. It takes an average of about 80 extra O-Zone wins to average on extra goal. But of course, we forget the other 79 as we still talk about "the big one" from last night

3. Specifically on this topic, and also overall, Pierre MacGuire is an idiot.

 

[Jetfaninflorida]

Fine looking lineup, GP. Thanks for the freak show awesome in a great way GDT!

Break out the brooms boys, and SWEEEEEEP!!!

GJG!

 

[AussieBomberJet]

I'm confused about Ginger Papa. Is he a Jets fan or an Oilers fan........or both? He's making GDTs for both teams.....??

 

[Zhamnov5GoalGame]

I'm confused about Ginger Papa. Is he a Jets fan or an Oilers fan........or both? He's making GDTs for both teams.....??

I think he's on one of those journeys to make a GDT for every team in the league.
This isn't the first time he's posted the GDT for us and our opponents in the same game.

 

[AlphaLackey]

ATTN OILERS.

REPORT TO BELL MTS PLACE FOR IMMEDIATE DE-RES.

END OF LINE.

One of the many fine details about TRON was the way the characters 'communicated' using the old ASCII control characters spoken out; in addition to "end of line", the programs would often say "acknowledge" (ACK, ^F) to each other. One of the MANY things, lord knows there's another GDT in my databanks for this too, but I'll keep it brief: the sequel disappointed me so greatly, it was little more than an iPad-skinned reboot with all the high concept taken out, and Wreck-It-Ralph 2 has infinitely more right to call itself a TRON sequel.

That is all. Err, end of line.

 

[AussieBomberJet]

I think he's on one of those journeys to make a GDT for every team in the league.
This isn't the first time he's posted the GDT for us and our opponents in the same game.

Ahhh okay. He's a 0000000000000000000000000000000 agent

JK GP. All good!

 

[GeorgeJETson]

When the Jets win, we'll all have to salute them for a great game

 

[The Blue Baron]

I think he's on one of those journeys to make a GDT for every team in the league.
This isn't the first time he's posted the GDT for us and our opponents in the same game.

@Ginger Papa says this is his official home though. Vancouver 2nd.
But only he can confirm.