GDT: Game 4 White Out 8:45 Tonight

[Cypruss]

Go Jets. Just, for the first time ever, loaded an avatar photo. Posting to see if it actually worked (I suck at technology).

 

[Cypruss]

Go Jets. Just, for the first time ever, loaded an avatar photo. Posting to see if it actually worked (I suck at technology).

Beauty! It worked. Go get them tonight boys!!!!!!!

 

[Hobble]

Want to get Manitobans vaccinated? Open a vaccine site at the entrance of MTS Centre and allow reduced capacity for vaccinated fans

 

[DashingDane]

Awesome stuff as always, GingerPapa. It's sure nice to see the rogue's gallery seated around the table, albeit virtually

To answer the question asked in the prior PGT:



There absolutely is SOME skill. Like yes, Patrice Bergeron (who is a generational talent in the face-off circle) DOES win more than he loses. Just.. not that much more. This year he took 1,147 faceoffs in the regular season and only on 62.2% of them. Of the players in the NHL favored to take faceoffs (i.e. not by accident), he's head-and-shoulders the best.. and is still only about a 3:2 favorite.

Among the top 62 (which I picked cause 31 teams times 2 guys), only one other person is above 60% (Glendenning, 60.9% on 859 attempts). By the time you get to Vincent Trochek in 10th, its already 56.0% of 769.

And to give an example that I hope puts in some perspective of how much variance there is in "62.2%": Let's say we're playing a heads-up no limit hold'em freezeout. We each have 10,000 in chips. Blinds will be 100-200 the whole way, small blind on the button.

Now let's assume that I'm drunk ("Assume away." - Max Bialystock) and I am going to bet everything all-in preflop, every hand, without looking. Like, guaranteed. Like my chips are all in before the start of the hand, before card one comes out.

You, in this example, represent Patrice Bergeron. Obviously, all the skill is on your end, none in mine.

Yet through nothing but sheer variance alone, you still only have a 65%-ish chance of winning.

So yeah. Not that there's no skill. There IS some skill, and it IS sustainable (being good at FOs last year correlates to being good in subsequent years). And I know the physical chaos in athletics isn't quite (in most eyes) the same as 'pure' random chance in a card game, but hopefully this illustrates just what 'that much' variance looks like.

I don't want to be paired with @AlphaLackey... He clearly believes in voodoo

 

[bennylundholm]

It looked like a seeing eye shot to me. He absolutely has to have it. Hellebuyck would be getting murdered on here had it been us.

No, can't blame Smith for that one.
If it wasn't deflected, yes.
Clearly it was tipped on the way there.

 

[razorsedge]

Never be over confident against a team on the edge of elimination. Sun Tzu says:

"Confront them with annihilation, and they will then survive; plunge them into a deadly situation, and they will then live. When people fall into danger, they are then able to strive for victory."

Jets need to play disciplined and stick to the game plan. Capitalize on the enemy's mistakes. Sun Tzu says:

"Conform to the enemy's tactics until a favorable opportunity offers; then come forth and engage in a battle that shall prove decisive."

When all else fails, Reilly and Jonesy say:

"Forecheck, Backcheck, Paycheck."

 

[snowkiddin]

No goalie is responsible for a goal like that IMO, partially screened and partially deflected.......that’s no easily save. Either way, it doesn’t matter......Smith was amazing and Oilers best player in first two games by a wide margin we can agree on that. Game three both goalies had some amazing saves.

I’m hoping we win tonight big time.

You’d be seeing a lot of 10-9 type of scores if goalies weren’t expected to stop shots like that. Didn’t look deflected to me and even if it was it didn’t change the trajectory much. And it’s not like there was a ton of traffic in front. He was partially screened, but it was a floater from the point. He absolutely needs to have that especially considering where they were in the game.

Agree Smith has overall been their best player though. Hopefully he has a bad game tonight.

 

[AlphaLackey]

I don't want to be paired with @AlphaLackey... He clearly believes in voodoo

Sometimes I engage in voodoo like that, but sometimes I actually do manage to use sound sports logic like "there was snow in Edmonton so we're guaranteed to win"

 

[Jets 31]

Well @Ginger Papa that's a good GDT , not great because the Dude is missing. Just because i now want the sweep Plain Jane is here. I hope my girlfriend doesn't mind me posting her picture so much..........

 

[AlphaLackey]

When all else fails, Reilly and Jonesy say:

"Forecheck, Backcheck, Paycheck."

Now THERE'S a GDT that needs to happen. Either Letterkenny or just Reilly and Jonesy (and maybe Shoresy!)

 

[Jets 31]

Oh and a good rocking tune for Jane and for us.

 

[SUX2BU]

Now THERE'S a GDT that needs to happen. Either Letterkenny or just Reilly and Jonesy (and maybe Shoresy!)

look forward to your upcoming thread on the subject

 

[Tasteless Beaver]

I'm not superstitious, but every time I consider changing my avatar it's because we're doing well and the tank isn't appropriate, but I realize that I'd be jynxing it by no longer embracing a tank. We only need 8 minutes to finish them off, so just one good period tonight and we're moving on!

 

[ps241]

Thanks for the GDT @Ginger Papa

Hope the boys can go for the jugular tonight.

 

[Neuf]

Get one early and the game will go our way. Edmonton will play mcdrai the first ten minutes solid to try and get that first goal. If Jets get it the oil will fold and Smith will crack.

 

[Haywire]

.

 

[puck stoppa]

Go Jets. Just, for the first time ever, loaded an avatar photo. Posting to see if it actually worked (I suck at technology).

Great choice!

 

[RetroWinnipeg]

In case you missed this last night:


And I’m like:

 

[AstrophysicalJet]

Go Jets Go

Kill em off

 

[DashingDane]

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

I recall you saying something similar a year or two ago and I manually counted up the wins and losses and proved you wrong. I am not willing to do that again as I'm sure the result will be the same.

I suggest you block me again and try to have better afternoons going forward.

I remember us interacting on this subject as well several years ago. I ever shared the context, that being 1973's James Bond offering "Live & Let Die."



I've seen every Bond flick dozens of times, but "Live & Let Die" just once. As an impressionable four year old who was already scared of the dancing hot dogs played during intermissions at the Drive-In, ritualistic voodoo massacres was a bit much.

Anyways, it's not the fact that it's being posted, rather myself simply seeing the content that has me believing in this particular jinx.

Time to face my fear. Jets will win tonight dispelling this voodoo curse once & for all!

 

[bennylundholm]

I'm smuggling in a large amount of bacon-wrapped scallops in tin foil for all of us in the Lower Bowl.
Not that this really happened in Jets 1.0.

 

[WolfgangPuck]

Let’s go boys!
I been waiting 30 years to beat the Oilers in a playoff series.

 

[DeepFrickinValue]

Doing my best to get kicked out of the upper bleachers. Challenging Gabe to a dance off.

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

Sacrifice a chicken imo.

How about if I jump a shark?