Pre-Game Talk: Game 4 -> SWEEP or Comeback to win it in 7?

[leafs in five]

Frankly, while I agree that attacking him on a personal level is low hanging fruit, I honestly dgaf how nice he is off the ice. Not one iota. I would rather have a player that is a completely selfish, unlikeable asshole that puts pucks in the net in the playoffs than a "nice guy", mental midget like Mitchy. Being a nice guy in the NHL (or in life in general) rarely gets you anywhere, when that is your strongest virtue. People will merely take advantage of you. Just ask Kyle Dubas.

anyone who had to attend a high school with CHL players nevermind stars will tell you that almost none of them are nice guys

 

[ZEBROA]

Nylander with Tavares.. And on pp2. Holl?, Thanks Keefe now i dont need to watch. Nice of u to think of my sleep.

 

[Welsh Maple Leaf]

4-2 series is my sad, yet still hopeful prediction

 

[BallardEra]

imagine rooting for your team to lose because you don't wanna have to eat crow..


what about the flyers?

Flyers caught a break when Krejci went down. Leafs need a break too.

 

[GoonieFace]

imagine rooting for your team to lose because you don't wanna have to eat crow..

I suggest know the context before you reply with nonsense

 

[Macallan18]

I think the Leafs will win tonight.
Then, who knows?

Ok, lets try again.
I think the Leafs will win tonight.
Then, who knows?
Lol, I was sitting in my Palliser recliner in my home theatre, my wife had poured me a tall bourbon, and I went on Sportsnet only to determine game was Wednesday, not Tuesday.
The Leafs are killing me......

anyone who had to attend a high school with CHL players nevermind stars will tell you that almost none of them are nice guys

There were some in my law school, actually pretty normal guys.
For future lawyers that is.......

 

[Dayjobdave]

Just thinking this team has lost a lot of games in a row where a loss meant they are done for the year.

It’s a good time to break that streak.

 

[janesy12]

They grind out a win tonight, following by an embarrassing effort Friday in front of some die hard non-suit fans that spent A LOT of their hard earned money to watch a bunch of entitled Leafs put in a lackluster effort.

We'll hear the same crap we always do, except with the smug attitude of breaking through the first round. Good god.

The Gilmour/Clark, followed by Sundin teams lost because of the lack of talent around them, not the effort. They still managed to win big games and series, but just lose to better teams or Kerry Fraser.

This current team consistently embarrasses themselves due to having the talent, but refusing to put in the effort.

 

[Gary Nylund]

All time 3-0 comebacks:
- 204 teams have ever gone down 3-0 in a series
- 9 of those have forced at least a game 7 (4.4%)
- 4 have won the series (2.0%)

Which is pretty bleak. However, so many of those comebacks (and near comebacks) have been recent:
- Game 7s forced in 2010, 2011 (twice) and 2014
- Full comebacks completed in 2010 and 2014

The all time odds suggest that the team down 3-0 has an ~37% chance to win each game, while the “since the 04/05 lockout/salary cap” odds must work out to more like ~50% chance to win each game. IMO, there’s so much parity in the league since the introduction of the salary cap, most playoff games are ~50/50, the teams are pretty evenly matched and luck plays a major role. It used to be that teams down 3-0 were in that situation because they were heavily outgunned, playing way better teams, but nobody is heavily outgunned in the playoffs anymore, teams down 3-0 now are largely just unlucky.

At 50/50 odds per game, chances are:
- 12.5% chance to force game 7
- 6.3% chance to win the series

I think that’s about right for us vs. the Panthers. Still very poor odds, but there’s a chance.

You make a good point about parity and 3-0 not meaning teams are massively outgunned like it once was often the case. But still, even though because of parity the gaps between the playoffs teams are smaller than they were, they're still not exactly equal so Toronto being solid pre-series favorites going in isn't nothing.

Moneypuck has Toronto at 8.5%, so slightly better than 6.3%. I wouldn't put too much faith in their models but in this particular case, I do think it makes sense.

PS I realize that there isn't a massive difference between 8.5% and 6.3%, I'm just grasping at anything that looks like it might be a straw.

Ok, lets try again.
I think the Leafs will win tonight.
Then, who knows?
Lol, I was sitting in my Palliser recliner in my home theatre, my wife had poured me a tall bourbon, and I went on Sportsnet only to determine game was Wednesday, not Tuesday.
The Leafs are killing me......


There were some in my law school, actually pretty normal guys.
For future lawyers that is.......

I assumed you were a scotch kind of guy, what kind of bourbon were you drinking?

 

[robertmac43]

We either win and keep this boat afloat or we lose and enter one of the most intriguing offseasons this team has seen in a while.

Crazy stuff.

 

[justashadowof]

I'm not sure I've seen a team dominate on faceoffs to the extent the Leafs have this series and not reap some benefits of it.

 

[HellasLEAF]

Hard to pick the Leafs tonight. They got all the pressure and a rookie goalie in the net with no playoff experience. They can win obviously but hard to pick them.

 

[Suntouchable13]

Hard to pick the Leafs tonight. They got all the pressure and a rookie goalie in the net with no playoff experience. They can win obviously but hard to pick them.

Grasping at straws, yes, but rookie goalies did go on runs before. Cam Ward, Matt Murray. Probably more too.

 

[ACC1224]

Grasping at straws, yes, but rookie goalies did go on runs before. Cam Ward, Matt Murray. Probably more too.

IMO, Woll will be the least of their problems.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Hard to pick the Leafs tonight. They got all the pressure and a rookie goalie in the net with no playoff experience. They can win obviously but hard to pick them.

Leafs are slight favorites tonight. Woll's been really good this year, I don't feel like him playing hurts our chances at all.

 

[1specter]

Hard to pick the Leafs tonight. They got all the pressure and a rookie goalie in the net with no playoff experience. They can win obviously but hard to pick them.

Woll is the least of our problems. The fact that this team hasn't scored more than 2 goals in 5 straight games is a way bigger concern.

 

[Trapper]

Leafs are slight favorites tonight. Woll's been really good this year, I don't feel like him playing hurts our chances at all.

Strange when the goalie is finally the least of our concerns.

 

[HellasLEAF]

Woll is the least of our problems. The fact that this team hasn't scored more than 2 goals in 5 straight games is a way bigger concern.

So you are saying that a rookie goalie with no playoff experience is not an issue for you.

Mkay.

He looked foolish on 2 of the 3 goalie in game 3. I'm not blaming him. But he did.

 

[ACC1224]

So you are saying that a rookie goalie with no playoff experience is not an issue for you.

Mkay.

He looked foolish on 2 of the 3 goalie in game 3. I'm not blaming him. But he did.

It won't matter if Matthews and the rest don't show up.

 

[Trapper]

So you are saying that a rookie goalie with no playoff experience is not an issue for you.

Mkay.

He looked foolish on 2 of the 3 goalie in game 3. I'm not blaming him. But he did.

Woll played well in relief last game so it’s not like we’ve never seen him. He gave us a chance to win in OT. Not his fault we got beat 1 on 4.
So I’m not concerned. Also if this team plays without a pulse in front of him, it won’t matter in the least who is in net.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Strange when the goalie is finally the least of our concerns.

Not sure if that's because our goalies are good, or that the rest is so unreliable. Probably a bit of both.

 

[1specter]

So you are saying that a rookie goalie with no playoff experience is not an issue for you.

Mkay.

He looked foolish on 2 of the 3 goalie in game 3. I'm not blaming him. But he did.

You're pretty much the only one who blames him for any goal besides the 3rd one (and even that one was poor defensive coverage). He also came into the game cold at the start of a 2 minute penalty kill, where the team somehow allowed a breakaway in the dying seconds of said kill. It was also Anthony Duclair on the breakaway, a skilled player who has scored 30 before. Saying he looked 'foolish' is beyond idiotic.

 

[Macallan18]

You make a good point about parity and 3-0 not meaning teams are massively outgunned like it once was often the case. But still, even though because of parity the gaps between the playoffs teams are smaller than they were, they're still not exactly equal so Toronto being solid pre-series favorites going in isn't nothing.

Moneypuck has Toronto at 8.5%, so slightly better than 6.3%. I wouldn't put too much faith in their models but in this particular case, I do think it makes sense.

PS I realize that there isn't a massive difference between 8.5% and 6.3%, I'm just grasping at anything that looks like it might be a straw.

I assumed you were a scotch kind of guy, what kind of bourbon were you drinking?

Elijah Craig small barrel. Good, cheap bourbon. In Ontario Buffalo Trace is a good buy too.
I love bourbon.
I love Irish Whiskey (Redbreast)
I love Islay scotch
I love cognac
I love Canadian rye
yeah, whiskey is wonderful stuff.

 

[Trapper]

Not sure if that's because our goalies are good, or that the rest is so unreliable. Probably a bit of both.

I think he’s good. I think a future tandem of Woll/Samsonov will be good. Maybe not superstar but give you a chance to win good. We just need to sort out what goes around them.
With NMC and UFA approaching and the results of our effort remaining in the 2nd round, a retool/rework, rebuild from the net out could be on the horizon.

 

[4thline]

OPTIMISTIC POST OF THE DAY. ALL IS NOT LOST. HAVE HOPE. MAKE DREAM CRUSH HURT WORSE.

Yeah, there's been very few 0-3 comebacks in in NHL history. 2 in the modern era.

But- since the 05 lockout there has been in the playoffs

25x 5 game win streaks
15x 6 game win streaks
6x 7 game win streaks
3x 8 game win streaks
1x 9 game win streaks

Separate from that there as been 33 sweeps (4 game win streaks- some of which will be captured in the above, as well as who knows how many non-sweep 4 game win streaks (safe to say more than 25).

Leafs have to win 4 in a row. It happens all the time in the playoffs. What hasn't happened a lot is the exact permutation of winning 4 after losing 3 within a specific grouping of 7.