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GDT: Game 37: Kings vs. San Jose | Saturday December 31, 2016 7:30 p.m. PST

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Kopitar has lost his power. His legs are there, skating looks fine, he gets to spots, but then no zip to his shots. He's also getting out-sticked for pucks one on one, which rarely happened before. It sure looks like a shoulder problem to me (I've had a reconstruction). It's a obvious injury, this is probably the first time I've ever seen him be the least effective player on his line.

Unfortunately there's no big breaks in the schedule coming soon. After the 26th there are only 6 games in 20 days or something like that, perhaps a few games off in that stretch would be prudent. The team should be able to get points from the Phoenix/Colorado back to back without him, that would be 9 straight off right there.
 
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https://youtu.be/Rcx0U8rQpKU?t=605

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It's a nice little scrapbook. We'll miss him when he's gone.
 
I was out las night and my recording of the game was stopped halfway through. No win, no post-game show and of course Fox Sports West isn't showing repeats for this game because we beat the Sharks and who would want to see the Kings defeat the Sharks again and again? Sigh.

This year is off to a great start.
 
damacles1156 said:
Great win, Budaj played outstanding.

Kopitar at this point is a third/fourth line Defensive Center.
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It was a great win, won mostly every shift, put pressure on, and got 2 points they couldn't afford to lose. They had to win, with the Canucks (who for some reason have started playing really well and put together a winning streak) winning and the Flames winning, they had to win to keep in place and not lose ground. Also, until they threw the first period away last night, losing every faceoff and playing like a bad pee wee team, the Stars were starting to play better and had 3 W's in a row. That division had a slow start but that won't last. So the Kings need to be more consistent, last night was a good push in that direction.

Kopitar is what he is, a 29 yr old steller defensive forward who is exiting his prime years. The next 5 years won't be as good or productive as the last 5, that is the reality of the situation. Props to Kopi for drawing a line in the sand a year ago with the 10M and not budging, Lombardi caved and has to live with that. Even in his primes over the last 5 years, over a full 82 he isn't an 82 game player. He wasn't setting the world on fire even before he got hurt and I don't see that as a reason, that shouldn't affect his decision making.

Good to see Drew pot one, maybe he needed that to put some wind back in his sails, he's struggling for the most part this year.

They have a good homestand coming up this month, a bunch of games at STaples and need to really cash in.
 
Raccoon Jesus said:
I believe that for sure and I know it sounds like an excuse but the schedule was also absolutely nasty. That shouldn't have affected the Buffalo game or the Vancouver game in particular, but good lord, travel all across the country for three weeks for two 3-in-4s and a back to back is despicable.
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It is an excuse, every team in the NHL will at some point , due to the World Games in Sep , a comprised schedule that lost 3 days to xmas and 5 more to the mandatory days off, have too many games in short span of time. They also have he back to backs, flying out at 1am for game the next night, 4 games in 6 days, they all have that to face (and Elliotte Friedman said the GM's are not happy about the 5 day break and the stress it causes the schedule) . That's just the reality of it. The Wild have 22 games in the last 35 games of the year, that's brutal. The Kings are no different and it wasn't the schedule as much as playing **** poor hockey on most shifts. Players just playing lazy, too many in the same game.

THis homestand coming up, they need to put a push on and pick up a string of W's. Get points in the bank...and keep pace with the teams around them if they have any hope of getting in the WC race.
 
bmr said:
Gabo is not done yet. He still has the best hand/eye coordination on the team and it's not even close. Just give him a chance to start clicking with his linemates. Yes, he is older and has lost some speed, but he is still capable of scoring. Put him with Carter and Pearson.
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Disagree. He's not a rookie, he's in his 18th NHL season and about to turn 35. He was a very talented player who unfortunately was made of glass. Most times, he doesn't come off injury well and esp at 35. Still has the tools to contribute but he's not the same player that he once was.
He's not new to this team, isn't adjusting to a new system, new coach or new teammates. He's just older and it's taking longer to recover. And like Brown, nobody is taking that contract off the Kings hands, esp at his age, a cap of 4.8 thru 2021.
It could be he turns it around for the last 40 games, which the Kings need. But it seems there are a lot of little things within the game, not the scoring side , the decision making, that are off. Also not sure with Kopi struggling , playing him there will help. Sutter seems less patient with Gabo that some other forwards, maybe he'll move him around.
 
Doesn't Kopitar still have a wrist injury? And we're talking about him exiting his prime?
 
deeshamrock said:
It is an excuse, every team in the NHL will at some point , due to the World Games in Sep , a comprised schedule that lost 3 days to xmas and 5 more to the mandatory days off, have too many games in short span of time. They also have he back to backs, flying out at 1am for game the next night, 4 games in 6 days, they all have that to face (and Elliotte Friedman said the GM's are not happy about the 5 day break and the stress it causes the schedule) . That's just the reality of it. The Wild have 22 games in the last 35 games of the year, that's brutal. The Kings are no different and it wasn't the schedule as much as playing **** poor hockey on most shifts. Players just playing lazy, too many in the same game.

THis homestand coming up, they need to put a push on and pick up a string of W's. Get points in the bank...and keep pace with the teams around them if they have any hope of getting in the WC race.
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Kings travel more than almost any team in the league and literally NO teams have that double 3-in-4 situation we had.

Besides that, I was just talking thus far--it was literally a fact that we had the least home games in the league (tied w/the Wild).

Do these things even out in the end? I believe so. By the time the season ends, I would not use the schedule as an excuse--but when you're talking about one stretch of play in particular, one in which you're playing 3 in 4 nights and 4 in 5.5 across the country before doing it again...these guys are human. By the 9th game on the road crossing the country? Toast.

But they survived. And are still in control of themselves from here on out. Agreed that they have to capitalize on January.
 
Fishhead said:
Kopitar has lost his power. His legs are there, skating looks fine, he gets to spots, but then no zip to his shots. He's also getting out-sticked for pucks one on one, which rarely happened before. It sure looks like a shoulder problem to me (I've had a reconstruction). It's a obvious injury, this is probably the first time I've ever seen him be the least effective player on his line.

Unfortunately there's no big breaks in the schedule coming soon. After the 26th there are only 6 games in 20 days or something like that, perhaps a few games off in that stretch would be prudent. The team should be able to get points from the Phoenix/Colorado back to back without him, that would be 9 straight off right there.
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I thought Kopitar looked as good as he has all season last night. Played a really strong game. Probably took it to danger areas more last night than he has all season. Great play by Burns prevented a wide open net for Kopitar. Had a few other good shots. But yeah, it's pretty concerning with his lack of scoring. He's been in slumps before but never this long. I'd assume he still gets around 50 points (which isn't good enough but will probably still be 2nd on the team) and around 13 goals (which is pretty bad).
 
Kopitar is injured, that's plain as day to see. His wrist injury, is keeping him from being strong on the puck, shoot effective, and pass.

He is not exiting his prime, he should be good for at least another 3-4 seasons of 70 points.

I am really angry with Lombardi, for not shutting Kopitar down till he is 100%. Could be doing permanent damage, to a 14 million dollar asset.
 
damacles1156 said:
Kopitar is injured, that's plain as day to see. His wrist injury, is keeping him from being strong on the puck, shoot effective, and pass.

He is not exiting his prime, he should be good for at least another 3-4 seasons of 70 points.

I am really angry with Lombardi, for not shutting Kopitar down till he is 100%. Could be doing permanent damage, to a 14 million dollar asset.
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I agree with all of the above but the boldfaced. I don't think there's any way they let him play risking permanent damage. Much like Carter last year, he's 'healed,' just has to play through what is obviously pain/discomfort/lack of strength. But I also assume what you're saying is let him get completely healthy instead of dragging it out, which I definitely agree with too--hate the idea of having an 80% Kopitar for weeks instead of just shutting him down for a few games to fully recover.
 
King'sPawn said:
Doesn't Kopitar still have a wrist injury? And we're talking about him exiting his prime?
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He's very visibly playing with at least a plastic brace on, who knows how far it goes up. I'll try to get a screengrab later today. It's pretty gnarly; I can't even imagine playing effectively even fully healthy with that thing on :laugh: Like Robocop
 
Put it this way.

Kopitar since coming back from Injury: 17GP 1G 7A 8P -3.

I would have rather had Kopitar sit out those 17 games, and get 100% healthy.
 
damacles1156 said:
Put it this way.

Kopitar since coming back from Injury: 17GP 1G 7A 8P -3.

I would have rather had Kopitar sit out those 17 games, and get 100% healthy.
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No no, I'm totally in agreement with that. I thought that with Carter last year too. No point in dragging it out, especially now that we're at home with a slightly mellower schedule.

I can understand why having Dowd as a 2C is terrifying with all our other injuries on the road, but it should be a little better at home, and if the alternative is having this one-handed version of Kopitar, I'd rather him relax. Admire him being a captain and playing thru it but I feel for the guy and no matter how good he is elsewhere it's hard to defend his lack of production no matter how much heart you see.
 
Raccoon Jesus said:
No no, I'm totally in agreement with that. I thought that with Carter last year too. No point in dragging it out, especially now that we're at home with a slightly mellower schedule.

I can understand why having Dowd as a 2C is terrifying with all our other injuries on the road, but it should be a little better at home, and if the alternative is having this one-handed version of Kopitar, I'd rather him relax. Admire him being a captain and playing thru it but I feel for the guy and no matter how good he is elsewhere it's hard to defend his lack of production no matter how much heart you see.
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Exactly,

Think about it, heck lets call it 10 games not the 17. 10GP sat out, would have gave Kopitar weeks, not days, to rest and heal up.

I know part of this is hindsight, but it's still very infuriating.
 
damacles1156 said:
Exactly,

Think about it, heck lets call it 10 games not the 17. 10GP sat out, would have gave Kopitar weeks, not days, to rest and heal up.

I know part of this is hindsight, but it's still very infuriating.
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Of course.

The problem is management i'm sure (as well all do) sees him as an effective defensive player and play driver even if he's playing as essentially a 3C...the alternative is Dowd/Shore et. al. so it's tough. But it's miserable watching him lose battles in the offensive zone with one hand on his stick. It's painful watching him take a normal beating too. And it's excruciating watching the whole thing drag out. He did look much closer to normal last night though so maybe that's a step in the right direction.
 
King'sPawn said:
Doesn't Kopitar still have a wrist injury? And we're talking about him exiting his prime?
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Statistically, yes. NHL players prime years are 24 to 29. So this year he starts to fall into that category. Eric, who is a avid stats guy for Broad St HOckey, so good at his analytics, the Carolina Hurricanes hired him a few years ago to be a part of their coaching staff. And his studies, and analysis are a part of why they've drafted so well the last few years. He wrote quite a few articles on the subject of the rise of players, when the are at their best , putting up points, when they level off, etc. The first article was march 2012 and he went back to 1994 and used that data and has added to it since. In this article, he uses that to cite that players reach their points per minute played peaks at age 24.

http://www.sbnation.com/nhl/2014/3/13/5500522/nhl-scoring-stats-rates-age-analysis

Also (and the larger volume of this was in his earlier work, ) players are in their prime scoring ages 25 to 29 , with 18 -24 being their best points per minutes range
In his original article, he had few exceptions, Daniel Alfredsson was one of them. But it's a normal path the forwards take.

On average, players retain about 90% of their scoring through age 29, but the drop from there is pretty sharp.
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This article uses similar data and has a chart , which shows that the points per minutes decrease after age 26 and you can see that in the graph at the bottom.
http://nerdhockey.com/by-the-numbers/2015/8/7/when-do-nhl-forwards-regress


And whatever the injury was (it appeared to be wrist to me when it happened but it might have been tendon in the arm) if it was /is torn and he's playing thru it, bad on the Kings, that is an area, that gets hacked and whacked on faceoffs an in corners and it will create more pain and discomfort. A lot of players choose to play thru rather than have surgery until the season ends and perhaps that is what he chose.
Or maybe the injury has healed and he's just having an off first half of the season.

But at 29, his prime years, where players produced at a higher points per minute rate , are behind him. He won't be putting up better numbers over the next 5 as he has over the last, that's just normal for his age.
 
And then you have Jeff Carter, on a 40 point pace well clear of that scoring prime.

Not that I disagree with the general idea.

Edit: really wish I could go back to the game where Kopitar was walking down the tunnel after the game with his sleeve rolled up and printscreen it. I was like honestly how is he playing at all with that brace on...it was massive.
 
damacles1156 said:
Kopitar is injured, that's plain as day to see. His wrist injury, is keeping him from being strong on the puck, shoot effective, and pass.

He is not exiting his prime, he should be good for at least another 3-4 seasons of 70 points.

I am really angry with Lombardi, for not shutting Kopitar down till he is 100%. Could be doing permanent damage, to a 14 million dollar asset.
Click to expand...

Then he will be one of the few exceptions to the rule, statistically, that just doesn't happen. Players points from 24-29 are at their highest. From 29 on, a pretty good dropoff. To expect him to hit 70 points multiple times as he enters his 30's isn't realistic.

And if he is playing true a torn ligament, he wouldn't be the first player to do that. It's just that in that area for a center, that is a spot that is hacked a lot on factoffs and in puck play so even with a brace, that would not be a good thing. But as has been pointed out, his best work is defending and killing PK, defensive zone faceoffs and such. COuld be that the Kings are accepting the fact the injury is hampering other areas.
 
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