GDT: Game 30 1/2: Coyotes @ Ducks - 7pm (AZ) - FSA - (redacted)

[XX]

OEL's contract is massively overblown as an issue. He and Chychrun are fine players who should both benefit from a quality head coach. They are not the problem.

Chychrun is 22 and a continually appreciating asset. His contract, age, and output makes him one of the most valuable D in the league right now. OEL will turn 30 this summer, has by far the largest contract on the team both in terms of risk and cash burden while at the same time being a rapidly depreciating asset. Given what $10m in cash bought last summer, I would delete his contract out of existence for free, if given the option, right now. The flexibility alone would be incredible.

OEL hasn't outplayed Hammer in his own zone. Not by a longshot. And even though Goligoski frequently passes directly to the opposition, I'd rate them pretty evenly. OEL used to be a true top pair defender that would score 15-20 goals while at least constantly driving the offense. Now? He looks like a total passenger. This is a player that got injured because he was lollygagging to a puck and didn't think Kane would play the body. He has had several brutal ass games this year where he's the worst guy on the ice, sometimes being almost unrecognizable, all while wearing the C.

It's fine to like him and hope he turns it around under a new coach, but he is objectively on the wrong side of the team building math. I think it's also completely fair to question whether this player is a part of the problem. Even if he's not, I don't see him as part of the solution either.

If he goes back to being a top 10 guy under a new coach, I'll be thrilled. It just seems incredibly unlikely at this point given his injury history and overall play trend.

 

[Jakey53]

Take off your rose colored glasses and compare line to line with every team in the League. The Coyotes are pretty close to the bottom. Even closer to bottom if you only look at most important line 1 and 2.

You have your opinion and I have mine.

 

[Jakey53]

Chychrun is 22 and a continually appreciating asset. His contract, age, and output makes him one of the most valuable D in the league right now. OEL will turn 30 this summer, has by far the largest contract on the team both in terms of risk and cash burden while at the same time being a rapidly depreciating asset. Given what $10m in cash bought last summer, I would delete his contract out of existence for free, if given the option, right now. The flexibility alone would be incredible.

OEL hasn't outplayed Hammer in his own zone. Not by a longshot. And even though Goligoski frequently passes directly to the opposition, I'd rate them pretty evenly. OEL used to be a true top pair defender that would score 15-20 goals while at least constantly driving the offense. Now? He looks like a total passenger. This is a player that got injured because he was lollygagging to a puck and didn't think Kane would play the body. He has had several brutal ass games this year where he's the worst guy on the ice, sometimes being almost unrecognizable, all while wearing the C.

It's fine to like him and hope he turns it around under a new coach, but he is objectively on the wrong side of the team building math. I think it's also completely fair to question whether this player is a part of the problem. Even if he's not, I don't see him as part of the solution either.

If he goes back to being a top 10 guy under a new coach, I'll be thrilled. It just seems incredibly unlikely at this point given his injury history and overall play trend.

Your hate for OEL is ridiculous.

 

[TheLegend]

Your hate for OEL is ridiculous.

It isn't hate.... OEL isn't playing up to his contract level.... period. And hasn't for a while now.

Whether it's mental or physical or a combination of both doesn't matter. He's in a results league and they aren't pretty at the moment.

 

[LittlePipes]

Chychrun is 22 and a continually appreciating asset. His contract, age, and output makes him one of the most valuable D in the league right now. OEL will turn 30 this summer, has by far the largest contract on the team both in terms of risk and cash burden while at the same time being a rapidly depreciating asset. Given what $10m in cash bought last summer, I would delete his contract out of existence for free, if given the option, right now. The flexibility alone would be incredible.

OEL hasn't outplayed Hammer in his own zone. Not by a longshot. And even though Goligoski frequently passes directly to the opposition, I'd rate them pretty evenly. OEL used to be a true top pair defender that would score 15-20 goals while at least constantly driving the offense. Now? He looks like a total passenger. This is a player that got injured because he was lollygagging to a puck and didn't think Kane would play the body. He has had several brutal ass games this year where he's the worst guy on the ice, sometimes being almost unrecognizable, all while wearing the C.

It's fine to like him and hope he turns it around under a new coach, but he is objectively on the wrong side of the team building math. I think it's also completely fair to question whether this player is a part of the problem. Even if he's not, I don't see him as part of the solution either.

If he goes back to being a top 10 guy under a new coach, I'll be thrilled. It just seems incredibly unlikely at this point given his injury history and overall play trend.

I couldn't agree more. The fact that OEL remains the C cannot raise team morale.

 

[Jakey53]

It isn't hate.... OEL isn't playing up to his contract level.... period. And hasn't for a while now.

Whether it's mental or physical or a combination of both doesn't matter. He's in a results league and they aren't pretty at the moment.

While he is not living up to his contract, I think he has played damn good this year. In the NHL Chick is 28th PPG, OEL is 39th. right behind Burns, who makes 8 mil. on a crappy team but still score more than us, and Pietrangelo who makes 8.8 mil. playing for a very good team and both playing more minutes. I know that is cherry picking, but OEL has played very well on a team that can't score, and for a coach that doesn't like him. I think his results are better than you think if you do a deeper dive. In fact, I think Chick and OEL are both doing extremely well considering the other sad sack Dmen we have. If anybody would have told you that Hammer would have more points than Gogo and Demers combined you would have laughed at them, but here we are.

 

[Name Nameless]

Watched this one unspoiled. You said it all here. What a horrible game. The Ducks are so bad, and they still won. Horrible.

 

[Name Nameless]

OK, there is one thing I want to say. I don't like the hate for Raanta. I am sure nobody is more frustrated with his situation than himself. And his contract is expiring. No need to hate on the guy. It's over for him after this season. Please, stay classy, people. That's part of the reason why I ended up as a Yote-fan from the start.

 

[The Feckless Puck]

While he is not living up to his contract, I think he has played damn good this year.

He's played better this year than he has in a couple years. I'll give him that. And he's a very nice guy off the ice.

But I defy you to provide any proof whatsoever that A) he's playing anywhere close to his peak, B) he's playing up to the value of his contract, or C) he's providing the kind of leadership that this team needs.

I've liked OEL since before he played his first North American game. I still remember the passion with which the Swedish superfans used to call/answer, "OLIVER! EKMAN-LARSSON!" at his games. I fondly recall the ease with which he used to skate around on both big ice and small, and how he'd hustle to make a stellar defensive play, or how he'd undress opposing players to carry the puck into the offensive zone and use that sweet-touched wrister to either score a goal or set up someone else's.

That OEL isn't around anymore. He doesn't even have his cheeky underwear line anymore. If he smiles, it's the hangdog type. He's got the enthusiasm of a veal. He's skating like he's injured. He labors to keep pace with the play. He plays tentatively, without the effortless assurance he used to exhibit. And he's got the same level of dynamic leadership of a ball of Silly Putty.

Whatever happened to him, whatever continues to afflict him, at his age, it's not going to get better... at least not in Arizona. Even if Tocchet gets fired tomorrow, I highly doubt that OEL would be able to recapture even a fraction of what made him so special for so many years.

It doesn't make me happy to say it, but that's the reality of it.

OK, there is one thing I want to say. I don't like the hate for Raanta. I am sure nobody is more frustrated with his situation than himself. And his contract is expiring. No need to hate on the guy. It's over for him after this season. Please, stay classy, people. That's part of the reason why I ended up as a Yote-fan from the start.

I don't hate Raanta. I hate his body for betraying him, and by extension, us.

 

[MIGs Dog]

OK, there is one thing I want to say. I don't like the hate for Raanta. I am sure nobody is more frustrated with his situation than himself. And his contract is expiring. No need to hate on the guy. It's over for him after this season. Please, stay classy, people. That's part of the reason why I ended up as a Yote-fan from the start.

 

[TheLegend]

While he is not living up to his contract, I think he has played damn good this year. In the NHL Chick is 28th PPG, OEL is 39th. right behind Burns, who makes 8 mil. on a crappy team but still score more than us, and Pietrangelo who makes 8.8 mil. playing for a very good team and both playing more minutes. I know that is cherry picking, but OEL has played very well on a team that can't score, and for a coach that doesn't like him. I think his results are better than you think if you do a deeper dive. In fact, I think Chick and OEL are both doing extremely well considering the other sad sack Dmen we have. If anybody would have told you that Hammer would have more points than Gogo and Demers combined you would have laughed at them, but here we are.

As I said in the last post it’s a results business and he’s not playing like an $8 million per year defenseman. You can probably find several guys out there right now at less than half the price playing better.

He may be playing “better” but he’s still making bonehead decisions a rookie usually makes and that’s not good.

 

[Jamieh]

As I said in the last post it’s a results business and he’s not playing like an $8 million per year defenseman. You can probably find several guys out there right now at less than half the price playing better.

He may be playing “better” but he’s still making bonehead decisions a rookie usually makes and that’s not good.

That contract is much more likely to look worse going forward than it is to provide value.

 

[Gwyddbwyll]

Chychrun is 22 and a continually appreciating asset. His contract, age, and output makes him one of the most valuable D in the league right now. OEL will turn 30 this summer, has by far the largest contract on the team both in terms of risk and cash burden while at the same time being a rapidly depreciating asset. Given what $10m in cash bought last summer, I would delete his contract out of existence for free, if given the option, right now. The flexibility alone would be incredible.

The best FA we were able to obtain "for free" last year was Pitlick. A third liner who currently has to play on our top line due to our shocking lack of top class talent.

The best FA defenseman we've ever been able to attract is Goligoski himself five years ago. At best a second pairing partner for a better player.

What makes you think you can sign any FA you like with $10M in space? What bidding war are the Coyotes going to win with "the weather is nice here"?

We're lucky that Arizona is regarded favorably enough that players dont tend to block us on limited NMCs. However championship players will not be signing here. The continual disasters that befall our big ticket names from Taylor Hall going back to Olli Jokinen and Tony Amonte do not go unnoticed.

It's fine to like him and hope he turns it around under a new coach, but he is objectively on the wrong side of the team building math. I think it's also completely fair to question whether this player is a part of the problem. Even if he's not, I don't see him as part of the solution either.

I dont see a 29 year old as the "wrong side" of anything especially when all the other key players on this team are just starting to come into their own. Plus our prospective #1 on defense is still only 22. You will not succeed with a team full of rookies. Chychrun has a long history of hitting the wall and a poor track record of staying healthy and we cant rely on Soderstrom to be Plan B.

Dumping OEL for no return is trading away a proven top class player which creates another huge hole on defense that you'll scramble to fill before even addressing so many other problems the team already has. Why create more problems when you dont need to? Thankfully the boat anchors on defense in Goligoski, Hjalmarsson and Demers will soon be gone and their combined salaries will give even more of the flexibility you so desire than trading OEL would have.

 

[XX]

Dumping OEL for no return is trading away a proven top class player which creates another huge hole on defense that you'll scramble to fill before even addressing so many other problems the team already has. Why create more problems when you dont need to? Thankfully the boat anchors on defense in Goligoski, Hjalmarsson and Demers will soon be gone and their combined salaries will give even more of the flexibility you so desire than trading OEL would have.

OEL has been the worst defender the team has this year at actual defense.

GA/60:
OEL - 3.97

Bush - 2.81
Goose - 2.18
Chych - 2.17
Demers - 2.08
Oesterle - 1.99
Hjalmarsson - 1.71

HDGA/60:
OEL - 2.27

Bush - 1.79
Demers - 1.51
Chychrun - 1.08
Goligoski - 0.87
Oesterle - 0.66
Hjalmarsson - 0.47

On Ice SV%:
Hammer - 93.37
Demers - 93.37
Chychrun - 93.08
Oesterle - 93.02
Goligoski - 92.45
Bush - 91.6

OEL - 88.4

OEL doesn't make up for it with offense either, with the 6th best out of 7 GF% (only ahead of Hammer) and 5th best xGF%, only ahead of Demers and Bush, which is absolutely pathetic for his salary and how much the coaches let him pinch.

Every indication is that the three names you mentioned aren't the problem, which is why this team didn't miss a beat with OEL out. They arguably played better.

Every other team can see these numbers too, and this has been OEL's general trend for years. We'd be very lucky if anyone wanted him and he was willing to waive.

 

[MIGs Dog]

OEL has been the worst defender the team has this year at actual defense.

GA/60:
OEL - 3.97

Bush - 2.81
Goose - 2.18
Chych - 2.17
Demers - 2.08
Oesterle - 1.99
Hjalmarsson - 1.71

HDGA/60:
OEL - 2.27

Bush - 1.79
Demers - 1.51
Chychrun - 1.08
Goligoski - 0.87
Oesterle - 0.66
Hjalmarsson - 0.47

On Ice SV%:
Hammer - 93.37
Demers - 93.37
Chychrun - 93.08
Oesterle - 93.02
Goligoski - 92.45
Bush - 91.6

OEL - 88.4

OEL doesn't make up for it with offense either, with the 6th best out of 7 GF% (only ahead of Hammer) and 5th best xGF%, only ahead of Demers and Bush, which is absolutely pathetic for his salary and how much the coaches let him pinch.

Every indication is that the three names you mentioned aren't the problem, which is why this team didn't miss a beat with OEL out. They arguably played better.

Every other team can see these numbers too, and this has been OEL's general trend for years. We'd be very lucky if anyone wanted him and he was willing to waive.

Any truth to the rumor that OEL's apparent defensive weakness is because he frequently takes on the opponent's top line? I know in the past OEL has always had a high +/-.

 

[Gwyddbwyll]

Sorry but I'm going by the eye test. I like stats but they get ludicrous when they tell you the best player is the worst. What I see is Hammer, Demers and Goligoski utterly abdicating all responsibility on the ice for doing anything other than the bare minimum of holding their position. They desperately throw the puck at Chychrun and OEL and literally do nothing else. If the other team is smart enough to take away that option they cough it up instead and go for a line change. Shameful for defensemen paid as much as they are, they play like first year rookies, like a defensive equivalent of Barrett Hayton in fact. That is why they get scratched and not OEL.

Every other team knows what OEL is capable of, that he is an international class defenseman. Put him on a strong team and there's no doubt he will produce.

Are you not going to answer the point that 10M of cap space does not automatically return you 10M of the best FA on the market? We can look forwards to more Pitlick type players replacing OEL.. not Pietrangelos.

 

[XX]

Any truth to the rumor that OEL's apparent defensive weakness is because he frequently takes on the opponent's top line? I know in the past OEL has always had a high +/-.

Nope. Over a sample of hundreds of minutes with multiple partners you wouldn't see such a large deviation if he was playing well but simply seeing harder comp on average than every other D. If he was 'tilting' the ice like he was paid to do, that would also cushion his numbers. Instead, he's just really bad.

And something sad that I noticed is that his return coincides perfectly with the slide. He came back February 12th... (the first game after Feb 10th)

Witness Feb 10th before and after:

Expected goals per 60 = 2nd to 31st
High Danger attempts = 4th to 23rd
Shot attempts per 60 = 6th to 31st
Scoring chances per 60 = 8th to 30th
Save percentage = 8th to 17th
High Danger share = 10th to 25th
Expected goal share = 10th to 31st
Shots against = 11th to 23rd
Goals against per 60 = 12th to 21st
Shot attempt share = 14th to 31st
Actual goal share = 16th to 24th
High Danger goal share = 16th to 25th
Scoring chance share = 17th to 30th
Expected goals against = 20th to 25th
Shot share = 21st to 31st

N = 12 vs 15

I think everyone should be open to the idea that OEL is not playing well and is absolutely not worth his money.

Are you not going to answer the point that 10M of cap space does not automatically return you 10M of the best FA on the market? We can look forwards to more Pitlick type players replacing OEL.. not Pietrangelos.

I don't want a "Peitrangelo", I simply want that cash and AAV back.

 

[Gwyddbwyll]

The Coyotes went into the bin last season the second that Taylor Hall arrived. Does that mean Taylor Hall is a scrub? Coincidence is not causation.

What's more plausible?

A - Hall and OEL are talentless scrubs

B - A bad team breathes a sigh of relief and hands over all responsibility to one player to carry them.

 

[XX]

What I see is Hammer, Demers and Goligoski utterly abdicating all responsibility on the ice for doing anything other than the bare minimum of holding their position. They desperately throw the puck at Chychrun and OEL and literally do nothing else.

Get your eyes checked. Especially for Goligoski and Hammer.

 

[Gwyddbwyll]

I don't want a "Peitrangelo", I simply want that cash and AAV back.

It's fine you want shot of OEL. I agree he looks burned out and demotivated. The numbers look bad. That's all valid.

The point I'm really trying to make is if you get shot of him, you're left with literally just Chychrun and two rookies in Soderstrom and Provolnev. That's just a massive headache you dont need. Every agent and GM you then have to deal with will see you stuck over a barrel and they wont be looking to do you a favour.

Not to mention the poor track record we have in attracting FA's. We dont get to have the pick of the market. What would actually happen is we'd get some FA that the top teams have discarded and then sell off the rest of our cap space for more futures. If that's your strategy then that works.

 

[XX]

It's fine you want shot of OEL. I agree he looks burned out and demotivated. The numbers look bad. That's all valid.

The point I'm really trying to make is if you get shot of him, you're left with literally just Chychrun and two rookies in Soderstrom and Provolnev. That's just a massive headache you dont need. Every agent and GM you then have to deal with will see you stuck over a barrel and they wont be looking to do you a favour.

Not to mention the poor track record we have in attracting FA's. We dont get to have the pick of the market. What would actually happen is we'd get some FA that the top teams have discarded and then sell off the rest of our cap space for more futures. If that's your strategy then that works. I'm thinking more about next season and getting better each year.

I think you are overrating his overall impact, which makes it feel like replacing him is harder than it really would be. Some very good D have signed for less than what half OEL gets this past summer, and it's likely to be that way this coming summer as well.

Again, they don't need to woo the best guy on the market with a super flashy presentation ala Petro. They just need to make a few smart mid tier signings. I don't think they'll have any problem attracting a couple middle pair guys with fair term and AAV.

 

[Gwyddbwyll]

Why cant we do that anyway?

Goligoski, Demers and Hjalmarsson are UFA. We can use that salary to easily afford those guys as well.

 

[XX]

Why cant we do that anyway?

Goligoski, Demers and Hjalmarsson are UFA. We can use that salary to easily afford those guys as well.

I view the two as independent. Mainly because of OEL's NMC and overall trend downward.

OEL has the largest cash burden the next 3 years and I don't rate his play highly. I think he's putting out at around a 3-4m clip at best. If any team wanted him and he was willing to waive, I would opt out of that deal, given the sheer amount of risk it represents for six more years. Also, I want the captaincy back without any drama.

He has a NMC, so theoretically you can be stuck with this contract until it expires or you can stomach a buyout. If you get a chance to get an expensive NMC player off your roster that isn't earning his full keep, you have to take it IMO. If you divorce yourself from the emotion involved with the player, it's the right thing to do in terms of getting a few assets and managing risk.

I think there's a greater than 50% chance OEL doesn't answer any phone calls this summer and simply shows up to camp to greet a new coach, so you might just get your wish.

 

[Jakey53]

The best FA we were able to obtain "for free" last year was Pitlick. A third liner who currently has to play on our top line due to our shocking lack of top class talent.

The best FA defenseman we've ever been able to attract is Goligoski himself five years ago. At best a second pairing partner for a better player.

What makes you think you can sign any FA you like with $10M in space? What bidding war are the Coyotes going to win with "the weather is nice here"?

We're lucky that Arizona is regarded favorably enough that players dont tend to block us on limited NMCs. However championship players will not be signing here. The continual disasters that befall our big ticket names from Taylor Hall going back to Olli Jokinen and Tony Amonte do not go unnoticed.



I dont see a 29 year old as the "wrong side" of anything especially when all the other key players on this team are just starting to come into their own. Plus our prospective #1 on defense is still only 22. You will not succeed with a team full of rookies. Chychrun has a long history of hitting the wall and a poor track record of staying healthy and we cant rely on Soderstrom to be Plan B.

Dumping OEL for no return is trading away a proven top class player which creates another huge hole on defense that you'll scramble to fill before even addressing so many other problems the team already has. Why create more problems when you dont need to? Thankfully the boat anchors on defense in Goligoski, Hjalmarsson and Demers will soon be gone and their combined salaries will give even more of the flexibility you so desire than trading OEL would have.

Good post. This is my feeling exactly. We see what happened to OEL over the years of being the only true 1D we had. Constant hitting, slashing, cheap shots from other teams, and no one standing up to him. Finally, with Chick emerging we are giving OEL less TOI and other teams have to concentrate more on Chick resulting in OEL having a good year. The only player that has done more for this franchise than OEL is of course Doan, and not many if any wanted to move Doan. I think OEL is really under appreciated and under rated on these boards.

 

[Jakey53]

Any truth to the rumor that OEL's apparent defensive weakness is because he frequently takes on the opponent's top line? I know in the past OEL has always had a high +/-.

And gets different partners almost every game. OEL is just fine. If anything he tries to do too much and is always covering for his partner.