Game 19: New Jersey Devils 2 @ Los Angeles Kings 4 11/19/16

[Legionnaire]

Thanks to Brown's contract, it comes down to either him, King, Setoguchi, or Purcell playing with Kopitar and Gaborik whenever they get back, should the 70's be kept together. We're all scared to see the current Dowd line split up. It's going good, seems fragile with the last few years of Brown and Setoguchi being a camp invite, so don't want to mess it up.

Brown is being paid like a 1st line winger, and that is where he should be when Kopitar and Gaboirk are back. If he was producing like a 1st liner, there's no reason to get Lucic, and they still have the 1st rounder, but whatever.

However the lines end up when healthy, I'm sure people will be upset for one reason or another. Either the Dowd line gets split, King is in the top 6, or none of the guys from Ontario are on the team because there are 15 forwards on the Kings already.

Realistically speaking, who could we have gotten for that money? Lucic? Wouldn't that have resulted in the same sort of fate down the road? I think alot of us can agree that it would. So who then? No one hits UFA any more who is worth a poop.

Our biggest issue right now is our poor drafting. THAT'S the difference maker. Yeah, sure. Those 1st would have helped for sure but they're not the be all and end all. We must draft better if we hope this core can have talent to play with.

 

[Legionnaire]

Drew is the guy who tries to kill every pitch in teammate-pitched softball.

The guy has a million people in the NHL to learn from when it comes to just getting shots through, but instead he tries to murder every puck. The guy could be easily top-5 in d-scoring yearly with his shot attempts if he could just get them through and on net.

At one point, early in his NHL career, he had developed this soft wrister/slapper that he got on net for deflections. I've saying for a while that he needs to add that back in order to vary things up because what he's doing isn't working.

 

[HookKing]

McNabb was our best possession defensman, before going down, and it wasn't close. His corsi relative was a whopping 6.2, way ahead of everyone else on the team. Forbort's is a team worst -7.92. It's worse when you factor it over 60 minutes. Insert small sample size disclaimer here.

Right now I don't think there is any chance that McNabb loses his spot to Forbort. We all know he's streaky, but if he kept up anywhere near those numbers he would have been the easy pick in the expansion draft. It's ironic, but his injury might be a blessing in disguise, because it might keep him on the roster.

This is amusing, I remember a few years ago when Muzzin was miles ahead of the rest of the league in Corsi and virtually everyone on Kings' boards wanted him gone for a bag of pucks.

There is a reason Martinez and Muzzin are both "minuses" at even strength, they have been terrible together no matter what the Corsi numbers say. It is difficult to say what Sutter will do with McNabb/Forbert when BM returns although we know he likes to default to veterans.

 

[Trolfoli]

McNabb was our best possession defensman, before going down, and it wasn't close. His corsi relative was a whopping 6.2, way ahead of everyone else on the team. Forbort's is a team worst -7.92. It's worse when you factor it over 60 minutes. Insert small sample size disclaimer here.

Right now I don't think there is any chance that McNabb loses his spot to Forbort. We all know he's streaky, but if he kept up anywhere near those numbers he would have been the easy pick in the expansion draft. It's ironic, but his injury might be a blessing in disguise, because it might keep him on the roster.

You're not winning me over. I still hate Corsi!

Dustin Brown: His contract is no longer a problem. It was a problem if the Kings wanted to fit a full top 6 and top off the D this year and next year. Since they look like they're not going to be serious about competing this year and probably next the contract doesn't matter all that much. By serious about competing I mean going all in at the trade deadline to put the team over the top. Now that the Kings have a year or 2 the contract doesn't matter all that much. There aren't any great UFA's popping up that the team needs to sign. They have time to wait for Kempe, Forbort, Gravel and any others that might make it. With cheap contracts on the way, the salary cap probably going up Brown's contract just isn't that big of an issue.

Brown's also playing a lot better right now and being productive.

 

[Trolfoli]

This is amusing, I remember a few years ago when Muzzin was miles ahead of the rest of the league in Corsi and virtually everyone on Kings' boards wanted him gone for a bag of pucks.

There is a reason Martinez and Muzzin are both "minuses" at even strength, they have been terrible together no matter what the Corsi numbers say. It is difficult to say what Sutter will do with McNabb/Forbert when BM returns although we know he likes to default to veterans.

Don't think it's all that hard to predict Sutter. Take the Real 70's line. As soon as they have a bad game Sutter will move away from it and only revert to it out of desperation.

 

[Legionnaire]

Corsi is preposterous IMO. Hockey isn't baseball so Sabremetrics don't really apply. The game moves too fast and there are far too many variables. For instance, how stats are kept and how they vary from arena to arena.

 

[Fishhead]

This is amusing, I remember a few years ago when Muzzin was miles ahead of the rest of the league in Corsi and virtually everyone on Kings' boards wanted him gone for a bag of pucks.

There is a reason Martinez and Muzzin are both "minuses" at even strength, they have been terrible together no matter what the Corsi numbers say. It is difficult to say what Sutter will do with McNabb/Forbert when BM returns although we know he likes to default to veterans.

Corsi says Muzzin is doing worse than Martinez on the defensive side of things, while they are pretty equal in total possession. But it's a long term stat, so ymmv. It indicates that if things stay the same, Muzzin and Martinez are going to start seeing their positives increase in the long term, while Forbort and Gravel are going to tail off. Here's another interesting stat..

PDO's

Muzzin 94.27
Martinez 94.29
Forbort 103.42
Gravel 105.62

Both Forbort and Gravel have been fortunate, while Martinez and Muzzin have been very unlucky. Again, it's a long term stat, but almost all advanced stats so far point to any talk of Forbort or Gravel forcing their way into a roster spot extremely premature, even though it would be a boon to the team and their cap situation.

 

[Fishhead]

Corsi is preposterous IMO. Hockey isn't baseball so Sabremetrics don't really apply. The game moves too fast and there are far too many variables. For instance, how stats are kept and how they vary from arena to arena.

To be fair, things balance out over the long term. As odd as a stat like Corsi may seem, you won't find a better indicator of success, especially for teams.

Cup winners and Reg. Season Corsi.

15-16 Pittsburgh = #2
14-15 Blackhawks = #2
13-14 Kings = #1
12-13 Blackhawks = #4
11-12 Kings = #2
10-11 Bruins = #14
09-10 Blackhawks = #1


It has to be taken in context just like any other stat, but it's hard to argue with its uses.

 

[HookKing]

Corsi says Muzzin is doing worse than Martinez on the defensive side of things, while they are pretty equal in total possession. But it's a long term stat, so ymmv. It indicates that if things stay the same, Muzzin and Martinez are going to start seeing their positives increase in the long term, while Forbort and Gravel are going to tail off. Here's another interesting stat..

PDO's

Muzzin 94.27
Martinez 94.29
Forbort 103.42
Gravel 105.62

Both Forbort and Gravel have been fortunate, while Martinez and Muzzin have been very unlucky. Again, it's a long term stat, but almost all advanced stats so far point to any talk of Forbort or Gravel forcing their way into a roster spot extremely premature, even though it would be a boon to the team and their cap situation.

I prefer to just go with my own lyin' eyes.

 

[theMajor]

This is amusing, I remember a few years ago when Muzzin was miles ahead of the rest of the league in Corsi and virtually everyone on Kings' boards wanted him gone for a bag of pucks.

There is a reason Martinez and Muzzin are both "minuses" at even strength, they have been terrible together no matter what the Corsi numbers say. It is difficult to say what Sutter will do with McNabb/Forbert when BM returns although we know he likes to default to veterans.

I remember when some of us were frustrated with his development (just like McNabb now) but I dont ever remember people being that low on him. it was only for a short period of time that I remember him struggling, he's been a corsi god for a few seasons now.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

The thing we said with Muzzin back then is the same we see with McNabb right now--corsi doesn't capture quality. Not all shots are created equal. When you center a pass to a Blues player for an easy tap in, you could have 90% CF because of 9 shots and 1 against, but if you're always giving up high-quality opportunities, it's gonna burn you. I'd argue McNabb and Martinez have maybe been slightly unlucky (i.e. the Rene Bourque tip), but they're also self-inflicting some wounds with bad reads off one another (i.e. skipping the zone and Muzzin giving Bourque a big cushion).

But yes, long term, if you're smothering teams with 60% of the shot attempts, things will equalize provided bizarre outliers.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Corsi is preposterous IMO. Hockey isn't baseball so Sabremetrics don't really apply. The game moves too fast and there are far too many variables. For instance, how stats are kept and how they vary from arena to arena.

But that's easy to see with home and away splits anyway.

The problem isn't stats, it's misapplication of them. No one here is suggesting making moves on corsi alone, in fact, i've seen more people asking 'why?' than ever.

 

[HookKing]

I remember when some of us were frustrated with his development (just like McNabb now) but I dont ever remember people being that low on him. it was only for a short period of time that I remember him struggling, he's been a corsi god for a few seasons now.

I do, it was absolutely brutal. In fact I was practically alone defending him.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

I do, it was absolutely brutal. In fact I was practically alone defending him.

I know I doubted his brain, saying something like you can't fix hockey IQ, and his footspeed...because I remember using the word 'clompy'. Could see similar things here with McNabb.

 

[HookKing]

The thing we said with Muzzin back then is the same we see with McNabb right now--corsi doesn't capture quality. Not all shots are created equal. When you center a pass to a Blues player for an easy tap in, you could have 90% CF because of 9 shots and 1 against, but if you're always giving up high-quality opportunities, it's gonna burn you. I'd argue McNabb and Martinez have maybe been slightly unlucky (i.e. the Rene Bourque tip), but they're also self-inflicting some wounds with bad reads off one another (i.e. skipping the zone and Muzzin giving Bourque a big cushion).

But yes, long term, if you're smothering teams with 60% of the shot attempts, things will equalize provided bizarre outliers.

There is plenty of unlucky to go around (Forbert, when Shore ran into Budaj, or Budaj failed to cover the puck in the late goal to NJ yesterday). Want to see McNabb's Corsi likely plummet? Pair him with Greene for a bunch of games (like Gravel and Forbort have been).

I don't think anyone can doubt that overall the Kings' D has been a lot more mobile since McNabb and Greene have been replaced by Gravel and Gilbert. All of this in spite of DD and Muzzin being underwhelming.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

There is plenty of unlucky to go around (Forbert, when Shore ran into Budaj, or Budaj failed to cover the puck in the late goal to NJ yesterday). Want to see McNabb's Corsi likely plummet? Pair him with Greene for a bunch of games (like Gravel and Forbort have been).

I don't think anyone can doubt that overall the Kings' D has been a lot more mobile since McNabb and Greene have been replaced by Gravel and Gilbert. All of this in spite of DD and Muzzin being underwhelming.

Well, that's simply the Drew Doughty effect. Between (pick a year--I did every year since 2014) the time he came to the Kings and now, it's clear him and Doughty play well together, to the tune of around 60% CF% without fail; put him with literally ANYONE else and he plummets to around 50%.

I still think Mcnabb has more to give, though, and his numbers being great so far this year were a testament to his play before getting hurt, albeit small sample size; it DID match the eye test. I do think it's clear he's not a play driver in the 'skate the puck out of trouble' way, but neither is Muzzin in that regard; Muzzin has just learned his role and identity and refined it--smart position, fantastic first pass.

 

[Fishhead]

I know I doubted his brain, saying something like you can't fix hockey IQ, and his footspeed...because I remember using the word 'clompy'. Could see similar things here with McNabb.

I did too. I mean, I thought Muzzin was braindead with some of the turnovers he did. Then something clicked and he became a fantastic defenseman. If McNabb does the same, Doughty and the M&M&Ms would be one of the best top 4's in the league.