The bottom line is the drop-off in offense from last year to this year is disturbing and a major concern.
Last season, the Bruins scored 263 goals. Good for 13th overall, 11th among playoff teams.
Pasta accounted for 47. Forwards 2 through 9 (Marchand, Coyle, Zacha, Debrusk, Frederic, Geekie, Heinen and JVR) accounted for 157. The D scored 31 and all other forwards totaled 28.
Right now, Pasta is basically on pace to match last year's production (49 goals pro-rated).
The D-corps has had an uptick thus far (on pace for 41 [+10]). All other forwards (i.e. the 4th line) has essentially doubled their production (on pace for 66) but common sense says that isn't sustainable.
The huge concern is among forwards 2 through 9 (Marchand, Coyle, Zacha, Lindholm, Frederic, Geekie, Brazeau, Poitras). Combined they are on pace for just 66 goals, nearly 90 goals less than last year. But much like the 4th line, that isn't sustainable either.
Let's assume Pasta and the D-corps maintain their pace. Forwards 2-9 sees their pace improve but that will combine with a regressed pace from all other forwards (4th line). Right now combined they are on pace for 132 goals combined (66 and 66).
Let's assume that Forwards 2-9 post around 100 goals, and the remaining forwards score 40 for a total of 140. That is still 45 less goals scored than last year from that group, over half-a-goal per game. That half-a-goal per game drop-off may not seem like much but it is MASSIVE. I'd project the Bruins to score roughly between 225-235 goals this year, which would of put them between 24th and 28th overall in the league last season.
Not to pile on Marchand, but he has just 9 goals since last years all-star break (54 games). He's a regressing 36-year old expected (by most if not all) to be your 2nd most reliable goal scorer. Let that sink in.
Then combine all of that with the fact you no longer have two legitimate No.1 goaltenders splitting time, and the coaching staff has seemingly abandoned the tight defensive structure of Bruins teams of the past two decades in a perverse attempt to mimic the Florida Panthers game plan. Your own division (and conference) seems to have gotten deeper and stronger (less easy games, tougher competition for playoff spots), and overall it's easy to see how this season is shaping up to be a complete disaster and a playoff DNQ.
We can talk about leadership, physicality, push-back, etc. etc. etc. but at the end of the day, it's a game of putting pucks past opposing goaltenders and keeping pucks out of your own net. And right now, this Bruins team is seemingly bad at both with no light at the end of the tunnel.
Firing the coaching staff and bring in a group that will instill rock solid air-tight defensive structure and try to win games 1-0, 2-1 and 3-2 looks to be the only realistic option here because there is no magic move(s) that will make this forward group one that scores consistently. The offensive talent simply isn't there and neither is the cap space to do anything about it.
If that doesn't work, then get what you can at the deadline for Marchand, Coyle, Frederic, Brazeau and Geekie and try to retool the forward group next summer. There is no rebuild coming.
If all of that seems dire, well, it is. The last time I can recall the outlook looking this dire this early in the season was 2005-2006. And we all know how that turned out. But I don't see them making a franchise altering trade like they did in 2005-06. I don't see them firing the front office at the end of the season either, regardless of the end result. It's on management to figure it out. Whether they do that in-season, or next off-season.
