GDT: [Game #1 OPENING NIGHT] Dallas Stars @ Nashville Predators - 7:30 PM CT (ESPN+)

[serp]

Hoping Marchment can stay healthy for most of the season. If he could play 70+ games that would be huge.

 

[hairylikebear]

The eye test really disagreed with the fancy stats in this one. I thought Marchment, Hintz, Lundkvist were the best players last night, but it was Heiskanen and Miller that led the team in 5v5 xGF% and Robertson, Pavelski, Johnston leading all situations.

Marchment and Lundkvist both had <50% xGF% at 5v5 which was really surprising for me to see.

What the fancy stats did confirm is that the 2nd PP unit is good and the 1st one is still run by Bowness.

 

[JeffP]

Ah, gotcha. My NoPixel watching days were during 2020. The Cleanbois were on my computer almost every hour I was awake.

i never cared for gta, but my friend played sheriff on there for forever
weird to hear it mentioned here

 

[tymed]

Is Johnston expected to pass the 9 game test, if so is he expected by the fans atleast to be taking on 2C by puck drop next year and potentially see PP1 time?

 

[Troy McClure]

Is Johnston expected to pass the 9 game test, if so is he expected by the fans atleast to be taking on 2C by puck drop next year and potentially see PP1 time?

Don't draft him for your fantasy team just yet.

 

[tymed]

Don't draft him for your fantasy team just yet.

Well I'm on the verge of cashing out on a couple of my prospects in a trade to a rebuilding team who has a couple of 30+ elite scorers. I'd have a couple of bench spots to incubate some new ones and WJ is still for grabs. I've scoped out his highlight packages (I know) but he's mad talented and exactly the kind of guy I hunt for when I don't spend my redraft picks on prospect projects.

 

[FirstRowUpperDeck]

Is Johnston expected to pass the 9 game test, if so is he expected by the fans atleast to be taking on 2C by puck drop next year and potentially see PP1 time?

I saw Jim Nill at a recent season ticket holder event. He said he didn't expect WJ to make the squad before training camp started, but became more impressed with him every practice and preseason game. He went from under 50% of making the team to over 50%. I got the impression that he has to be really good to stay past the 9 games, but his first game didn't hurt (that said, last year Riley Diamani, another scoring forward prospect) got a goal in his first game and was sent right back to the minors...

Nill said he was worried about salary cap implications down the road if he burned a year of WJ's entry level contract, i.e., he would have to pay his a larger salary one year earlier, which is probably before Benn and Seguin's big contracts come off the books.

 

[serp]

I saw Jim Nill at a recent season ticket holder event. He said he didn't expect WJ to make the squad before training camp started, but became more impressed with him every practice and preseason game. He went from under 50% of making the team to over 50%. I got the impression that he has to be really good to stay past the 9 games, but his first game didn't hurt (that said, last year Riley Diamani, another scoring forward prospect) got a goal in his first game and was sent right back to the minors...

Nill said he was worried about salary cap implications down the road if he burned a year of WJ's entry level contract, i.e., he would have to pay his a larger salary one year earlier, which is probably before Benn and Seguin's big contracts come off the books.

Either the ELC expires when Benn is up or a year later if gets send back to the OHL and his contract slides.

So either it expires together with Oettingers bridge or Robos. I don't see that big of a difference there.

Looking at the contract situation i don't think Johnstons ELC expiring in 3 or 4 years makes a big difference . If he shows he's ready right now in his 9 game trial keep him. If he's not send him back.

Of course they have to be absolutely sure Johnston can keep it up for the whole NHL season and will get quality NHL minutes throughout the year to not send him back.

Right now its still too early to really judge though.

 

[hairylikebear]

I don't think Nill was referring to the team's contract structure. He's concerned about WJ making more over the course of his RFA years and reaching UFA status a year earlier. Therefore, in order to stick around, WJ can't just be a spare. He needs to be noticeably better than the guy after his roster spot (in this case Damiani) and in my opinion he is in the process of accomplishing that.

 

[serp]

I don't think Nill was referring to the team's contract structure. He's concerned about WJ making more over the course of his RFA years and reaching UFA status a year earlier. Therefore, in order to stick around, WJ can't just be a spare. He needs to be noticeably better than the guy after his roster spot (in this case Damiani) and in my opinion he is in the process of accomplishing that.

I mean in an ideal world if he's good enough fast enough that you sign him to an 8 year deal that kicks in when his ELC is up. In that case the RFA/UFA stuff will never matter .

But yes if he isn't using up an ELC year one year too early would not be ideal.

 

[hairylikebear]

It always matters. That's why the term "buying UFA years" exists. In this hypothetical scenario, Nill would have to "pay" for one additional year of UFA. His NMC/NTC also would kick in sooner.

 

[Troy McClure]

If he's ready to contribute as an NHLer, losing that year of NHL contribution by sending him back to juniors is a bad idea. If he's good enough to be an every day player who will do more than whatever AHL tweener will take his spot in the lineup, keep him up and play him. The point is to try to win.

 

[serp]

It always matters. That's why the term "buying UFA years" exists. In this hypothetical scenario, Nill would have to "pay" for one additional year of UFA. His NMC/NTC also would kick in sooner.

Idk . He's in his D+2 now. If he's ready he's ready, He's not freshly drafted. If he can have a similar impact to say Heiskanen when he came over in his D+2 you don't care about any of that. You just keep him because he makes your team better. For the absolute best prospects this just doesn't matter . For Oleksiak type prospects who was nowhere near ready the first year the Stars kept him up it matters.

If he has like 6-10 points in his 9 games and plays 12-15 minutes every night ? You keep him on the team and then deal with the consequences of that later. You just have to be sure he's ready to contribute throughout a 82 game season.

 

[FirstRowUpperDeck]

I don't think any of you are saying anything much different than Jim Nill. He'll stay if he is a regular. The only problem for the guy who has to make the real decisions is that a 9 game sample may not be conclusive and they really don't know if he has the ability to stay sharp and not get tired for 82 games, even if he is impressive. Nill is conservative, having probably assessed the results of other aggressive transactions, and if there is a doubt at all, I bet he goes back down. But, just a guess.

 

[serp]

I'll say this . I'm more comfortable with the Stars keeping Johnston up than with whatever the f*** the Kraken are doing with Wright . First Francis says the plan for Wright is the stay with the Kraken the whole season and then they play him 6 minutes in the first game and next game scratch him.

Unless for whatever reason you dress an enforcer or something like that nobody should only play 6 minutes. Maybe in like game 7 of a playoff series but not in the regular season.

 

[Troy McClure]

I don't think any of you are saying anything much different than Jim Nill. He'll stay if he is a regular. The only problem for the guy who has to make the real decisions is that a 9 game sample may not be conclusive and they really don't know if he has the ability to stay sharp and not get tired for 82 games, even if he is impressive. Nill is conservative, having probably assessed the results of other aggressive transactions, and if there is a doubt at all, I bet he goes back down. But, just a guess.

I guess the problem with the rookie wall concern is sending him back down doesn't change it because going back down still only sees him play another 60 something game season. He's going to hit the wall this season or next whenever he plays a full NHL season, so I don't think anything is gained there by sending him down.

I'll admit. I'm greedy. I want to watch talent.

 

[hairylikebear]

Idk . He's in his D+2 now. If he's ready he's ready, He's not freshly drafted. If he can have a similar impact to say Heiskanen when he came over in his D+2 you don't care about any of that. You just keep him because he makes your team better. For the absolute best prospects this just doesn't matter . For Oleksiak type prospects who was nowhere near ready the first year the Stars kept him up it matters.

If he has like 6-10 points in his 9 games and plays 12-15 minutes every night ? You keep him on the team and then deal with the consequences of that later. You just have to be sure he's ready to contribute throughout a 82 game season.

I think we're saying the same thing tbh. Players with WJ's status face an uphill battle, though.

If he's ready to contribute as an NHLer, losing that year of NHL contribution by sending him back to juniors is a bad idea. If he's good enough to be an every day player who will do more than whatever AHL tweener will take his spot in the lineup, keep him up and play him. The point is to try to win.

Basically this. There is a cost associated with keeping WJ up, but on the bright side you get a great young player for the entire year and his development likely benefits.

@serp
I don't think it's accurate to say it doesn't matter, but I'm nitpicking because I think you only mean that in comparison to the overwhelming benefit of having him in the NHL.