But...you're not going to know the order of the pick until the playoffs end. And since picks 12 - 15 are lottery picks, I'm not sure this assessment makes much sense. You would have to hope that Toffoli goes to a bubble team that misses the playoffs.
As I wrote previously...I could see Toffoli going to a team like NY Islanders or Montreal that is on the bubble at the deadline that needs more offensive firepower for the wing that trades a 1st for Toffoli. He then goes on a scoring slump which the team falls in the standings and the Kings get a 12-15 pick.
But let's look at who finished 10-20 last year.
10) Philly with 82
11) Minnesota with 83
12) Chicago with 84
13) Florida with 86
14) Arizona with 86
15) Colorado with 90 *made the playoffs*
16) Vegas with 93 *made the playoffs*
17) Dallas with 93 *made the playoffs*
18) Montreal with 96 **missed the playoffs & picked 15th OA**
19) Columbus with 98 *made the playoffs*
20) St. Louis with 99 *won the Cup*
With those standings, it was an 8 point difference between 10th OA pick and the playoffs. Other than Philly and Minny those other teams were buying at the TDL which could see teams moving their 1st (see Columbus). Some team could want Toffoli for say the 16th pick at the TDL. Then maybe stumble down the season and fall to 12th OA or so.
I'm hopeful we can acquire some nice futures for guys like these but I think the values you state are way too high for the 2019 draft. If this was a poor draft, maybe. The number 12 pick in this year's draft may be as good as a top 3-5 pick most years, in terms of top-end depth.
I also don't think either of these players are worth that much as what you're saying above. I don't feel either of these players are worth more than a 2nd rounder and I actually think Martinez is worth more than Toffoli as of this moment, due to their positions...but there's lots of hockey to be played up to the deadline. I don't think there are multiple teams that own a pick in the 12 range that would be in the playoff hunt and want a Toffoli or Martinez bad enough as that's a bit of an oxymoron...it would be a team in the late teens to the 20s, pick range, a borderline contender or a true contender that would want a deal like trading futures for these players.
It may be possible to trade each of these guys for a late first/early second pick each, and then combine those picks for a mid-first.
That's the "bad" news. The good news is even if we do all that and get two lower firsts/early 2nds or we trade up, we will get top notch prospects into our system. The draft is very deep, like 2003 deep, so who knows...maybe that 2nd rounder turns into a top4/top6 player/s.
I think if Toffoli has a good year up until the TDL...he could get a mid-1st pick (12-17). I don't think Martinez can get a 1st realistically but if he does it will be a later pick like we saw with Muzzin last year (just not with the added pieces). I mean we traded 1st for Sekera, so anything can happen.
If you look at the Standings right now (granted it's the beginning of the season) there are mid pack teams that could use Toffoli to bring up their scoring. And some maybe really desperate to move a 1st for him (CGY, NYI, MTL, CBJ, WPG, TBL).
Edit: just realized this in the Vilardi thread. Sorry about that. Back to Vilardi....2 days in a row on the ice. Exciting!