Prospect Info: G - Ilya Nabokov - 2024 #38

[Murzu]

Gives him at least 1 year in the AHL behind the Lumber Yard before he challenges Wedgewood/whoever they sign in 2026 for the backup role

1. Re-sign Blackwood to a multi year deal.

2. Go into the 25-26 season with Blackwood/Wedgewood combo, Nabokov AHL for the year.

3. After 25-26 season Wedgewood's contract is up. If Nabokov is without a shadow of a douby ready for backup role, have him as a backup for 26-27 season. If not, sign one year stop gap and let Nabokov cook in the AHL for one more year.

4. 27-28 Nabokov full time NHLer, if he has it in him.

 

[Vaslof]

Are there any examples of overage goaltenders going on to become starters who were also not drafted at 18? Such an interesting path he's taken and potential.

There are many who went undrafted and became starters. Imo it's mostly the same, just even later bloomers than Nabokov. Finding specifically overage draft data was hard, so here's some undrafted starters: Backstrom, Belfour, Bobrovsky, Jon Casey, Georgiev (heh), Glenn Healy, Hiller, Martin Jones, Curtis Joseph, Kevin Lankinen, Antti Niemi, Raanta, Talbot, Logan Thompson.

 

[Richard88]

That article makes it sound like SKA would only trade multiple players for him if he signed an extension with them. But why wouldn't they still try to acquire him as a trade deadline rental if they like him that much?

 

[Lonewolfe2015]

There are many who went undrafted and became starters. Imo it's mostly the same, just even later bloomers than Nabokov. Finding specifically overage draft data was hard, so here's some undrafted starters: Backstrom, Belfour, Bobrovsky, Jon Casey, Georgiev (heh), Glenn Healy, Hiller, Martin Jones, Curtis Joseph, Kevin Lankinen, Antti Niemi, Raanta, Talbot, Logan Thompson.

Not undrafted, but overage drafted. Anderson is the only one I can think of, but he was drafted twice technically.

 

[Richard88]

Best case scenario for him is AHL next year then replace Wedgy the following year.

Yeah this seems to be the plan given how they've structured the goalie situation.

The term Blackwood gets will be the crucial aspect here, as you don't want to have him blocking the net from Nabokov in a few years if he does earn an NHL starting job.

~3 years for Blackwood makes most sense from the Avs perspective as that would give them one more year of Blackwood/Wedgwood (Nabokov in the AHL), followed by two years of Blackwood/Nabokov splitting the net and Nabokov gradually taking over as the starter.

Either way it's probable that Nabokov has some sort of assurances of a clear path to the NHL if he's agreeing to come over already.

 

[Khokhlach86]

That article makes it sound like SKA would only trade multiple players for him if he signed an extension with them. But why wouldn't they still try to acquire him as a trade deadline rental if they like him that much?

Because he plays for a KHL champion team and no one will let him go for a small compensation, and SKA won’t pay a lot for rent.

 

[Balthazar]

The term Blackwood gets will be the crucial aspect here, as you don't want to have him blocking the net from Nabokov in a few years if he does earn an NHL starting job.

What? I don't think they should care about that at all. This isn't some kind of top goalie prospect, he's an undersized overager playing in the KHL.

Blackwood just turned 28. If they believe he's their goalie they shoud sign him for as long as they can. Even 7 years is fine. If Nabokov turns out to be too good to be a backup goalie it's a good problem to have.

 

[Murzu]

Around 4-5 years for Blackwood would be ideal IMO. If Nabokov is blocked by that, he hasn't been good enough.

 

[Balthazar]

Around 4-5 years for Blackwood would be ideal IMO. If Nabokov is blocked by that, he hasn't been good enough.

There's no such thing as "blocking" Nabokov. This isn't his spot.

He's a long shot like the other long shot goalies we had over the years.

 

[LTCPain75]

 

[Richard88]

What? I don't think they should care about that at all. This isn't some kind of top goalie prospect, he's an undersized overager playing in the KHL.

Blackwood just turned 28. If they believe he's their goalie they shoud sign him for as long as they can. Even 7 years is fine. If Nabokov turns out to be too good to be a backup goalie it's a good problem to have.

I'm just saying you don't want to alienate a prospect goalie like Nashville did with Askarov.

 

[Avs_19]

It's cute that you guys think a 22 year old Nabokov would leave the KHL and potentially spend multiple seasons in the AHL. *Maybe* one year but more than that? Forget it.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

It's cute that you guys think a 22 year old Nabokov would leave the KHL and potentially spend multiple seasons in the AHL. *Maybe* one year but more than that? Forget it.

It feels like this is gonna be the plan.


The Woods will control the net next year while Nabokov gets a bunch of starts for the Eagles, then the next year Wedgewood moves on and Nabokov backs Blackwood. Probably for 2 years and then a decision will need to be made.

 

[Bill Peckerskull]

It's cute that you guys think a 22 year old Nabokov would leave the KHL and potentially spend multiple seasons in the AHL. *Maybe* one year but more than that? Forget it.

Guessing 1 year in the A, while Wedgie is here as BBW's backup, and then full-time with the Avs moving forward. The question is, how long is Blackwood's extension? Doubt Nabokov will want to come over and be BBW's backup for 6-7 years.

 

[Balthazar]

I'm just saying you don't want to alienate a prospect goalie like Nashville did with Askarov.

It's different. Nabokov is more like Annunen than like Askarov, you don't make room for that level of prospect.

I'd certainly not take him in consideration when it's time to negotiate Blackwood's term on his next contract. If he turns out to be better than Blackwood down the line then cool, we'll trade one of them.

 

[a mangy Meowth]

He's a long shot like the other long shot goalies we had over the years.

This is really reductionist thinking. He's pretty distinctly different from past goalie prospects we've had.

The only goalie prospect that we drafted even remotely as highly was Annunen and we can all agree he wasn't a very athletic guy, or someone who was thought of highly at all. Nabokov is clearly already producing better results in his 21 year old season than Annunen maybe ever has. Eye popping ones at that.

 

[KaraLupin]

It's different. Nabokov is more like Annunen than like Askarov, you don't make room for that level of prospect.

I'd certainly not take him in consideration when it's time to negotiate Blackwood's term on his next contract. If he turns out to be better than Blackwood down the line then cool, we'll trade one of them.

Vasilevskiy came over from the KHL as well, at the same age with the same stats, and called up to the big club from AHL after only 25 starts down there. Nabokov also owns accolades from the previous KHL season including winning the Cup, playoff MVP, and Rookie of the year.

I think there is something serious to debate here in terms of him becoming a potential starting goalie in the NHL.

I think in the best scenario, you have Blackwood/Wedgewood as 1/2 for '25 season, and Nabokov gets injury callups, and can gauge where he is at. If he is progressing well, you can replace Wedgewood's expiring contract with him in the '26 season and Blackwood can mentor. Then at that point if he's the real deal he will challenge Blackwood for the lionshare of starts and you can think about moving Blackwood's contract as the situation becomes clearer. If he doesn't transition to NA well, you just ride Blackwood's contract out, as hopefully he is still performing well if he signs to a long term.

 

[RoyIsALegend]

Sounds like Nabokov had a few options on the table:

1. Extend with Magnitogorsk who he's been with since he was 14 years old.
2. Accept a trade to the giant SKA and sign a new, fat deal.
3. Sign a letter of intent to join the Avalanche on an ELC at the end of this KHL season.

He chose the latter and didn't succumb to the pressure of options #1 and #2.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Sounds like Nabokov had a few options on the table:

1. Extend with Magnitogorsk who he's been with since he was 14 years old.
2. Accept a trade to the giant SKA and sign a new, fat deal.
3. Sign a letter of intent to join the Avalanche on an ELC at the end of this KHL season.

He chose the latter and didn't succumb to the pressure of options #1 and #2.

It's interesting to me however that the Avs announce the Blackwood extension seemingly immediately after the Nabokov news.

I can't help but wonder if Nabokov would have reconsidered his decision had he known the Avs just signed a starting goalie for 5 more years.

Not that I think Nabokov had aspirations or expectations of being in the NHL next year or being a starter right away... But 5 years is a long time.

I always thought the plan would have been 1 year in the AHL, then ~2 years as a backup and if he's still trending upwards, he starts after that.

I guess maybe they could still continue that path and start to run more of a 1A/1B tandem with Blackwood at some point.

 

[KaraLupin]

It's interesting to me however that the Avs announce the Blackwood extension seemingly immediately after the Nabokov news.

I can't help but wonder if Nabokov would have reconsidered his decision had he known the Avs just signed a starting goalie for 5 more years.

Not that I think Nabokov had aspirations or expectations of being in the NHL next year or being a starter right away... But 5 years is a long time.

I always thought the plan would have been 1 year in the AHL, then ~2 years as a backup and if he's still trending upwards, he starts after that.

I guess maybe they could still continue that path and start to run more of a 1A/1B tandem with Blackwood at some point.

I mean Blackwood's contract is not ridiculous and unmovable if he can keep his play up. If Nabo is as good as he seems he will take the job before Blackwood's contract is up, not share it. He will have his ELC to burn through, which gives 2 seasons before you have to start thinking about a combined goalie caphit with Blackwood. Regarding his expectations about The Avs and their goalie situation long term, I think the team is regarded enough if you get a chance to play there, you take it, regardless of situation/competition. If you are looking to make a splash in NA, there are much worse clubs to start with.

 

[VikingAv]

Not undrafted, but overage drafted. Anderson is the only one I can think of, but he was drafted twice technically.

Kotchetkov at least.

 

[Richard88]

It's interesting to me however that the Avs announce the Blackwood extension seemingly immediately after the Nabokov news.

I can't help but wonder if Nabokov would have reconsidered his decision had he known the Avs just signed a starting goalie for 5 more years.

Not that I think Nabokov had aspirations or expectations of being in the NHL next year or being a starter right away... But 5 years is a long time.

I always thought the plan would have been 1 year in the AHL, then ~2 years as a backup and if he's still trending upwards, he starts after that.

I guess maybe they could still continue that path and start to run more of a 1A/1B tandem with Blackwood at some point.

I doubt CMac would have lied to Nabokov about his intention to sign Blackwood long-term. More likely CMac made it clear that there's a clear path to the NHL for him but he'll need to start in the AHL for a year and then gradually get more starts in the NHL without the pressure of being the no.1 immediately. It's a good situation for Nabokov from that perspective.

He could also very well steal Wedgewood's job sooner than 2026 in which case you can either trade Wedgewood before he hits UFA or simply send him down to the AHL. But realistically they keep Nabokov in the AHL with just injury call-ups to let him adjust in peace.

If Nabokov is lights-out sooner than expected in like 2026 or 2027 well then you have the privilege of riding a good tandem in net just like Boston did recently with Swayman and Ullmark, until you trade one of them for a haul when Blackwood nears UFA.

 

[VikingAv]

Not undrafted, but overage drafted. Anderson is the only one I can think of, but he was drafted twice technically.

Kotchetkov at least.

Sorokin, Ullmark, Daccord and Kuemper, as well.

 

[Bill Peckerskull]

 

[AvsMakar08]

If Nabokov is better then Igor then our window will not be closing any time soon.