Full text of NHL/NHLPA MOU for new 2020 CBA - analysis and discussion

[mouser]

My swing at what the escrow balance might look like. Copied from another thread

I tried a spreadsheet mock up of how the Escrow Balance and salary cap could look going forward if no changes are made.

List of figures and assumptions used in this model.
- HRR for 2018-19 was ~$4.61B (based on reverse engineering the 2019-20 cap)
- Actual player salary/bonuses for 2018-19 were ~$2.414B (based on reverse engineering HRR and final escrow %)
- HRR has been growing at an annual 4% average in the 5 years leading up to the covid shutdown and will continue to do so in 2021-22 and following years.
- One time 5% year over year increase in HRR due to the new TV contract. $250m year to year increase estimate on TV money.
- $500M starting Escrow Balance following the 2019-20 season. *This may be high, need to research further, any input appreciated.
- Seattle revenue and new player costs are not included. Proportionally they should be neutral to a small upward adjustment, but not huge impact on this model.
- HRR for 2020-21 of $2.5B. HRR for 2021-22 returns to normal and is equal to 2019-20 projection of $4.8B. Increases by 4% year by year going forward.
- Player compensation increases year to year at same % as cap increase.
- Did not include 2020 MOU increases in non-salary player benefits that are included in compensation. It is a material number but not large enough to significantly change this model.

Season	cap	Revenue	Player share	Player actual	deferred	escrow%	final escrow	escrow $	Starting balance	ending balance	Player share
2020-21	81.5	2500	1130	2238.994		20%	-20%	(447.80)	500	1161.20	71.6%
2021-22	81.5	4799	2279.28	2487.771		16%	-16%	(398.04)	1161.20	971.64	43.5%
2022-23	82.5	5182	2471.222	2518.296	74.63	10%	-10%	(251.83)	971.64	841.52	45.2%
2023-24	83.5	5390	2574.871	2548.821	74.63	6%	-6%	(152.93)	841.52	737.17	45.8%
2024-25	84.5	5605	2682.666	2579.346	74.63	6%	-6%	(154.76)	737.17	553.73	44.6%
2025-26	85.5	5830	2794.773	2609.87		6%	-6%	(156.59)	553.73	212.23	42.1%
2026-27	87.0	6063	2911.364	2655.658		0%	0%	0.00	212.23	(43.48)	43.8%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

So the tradeoff for overpaying the players this season (including deferred salary) is an essentially flat cap for six additional years out through 2026-27. The players would also receive much less then 50% of HRR in every one of those seasons, with a low of 42%.

I did a similar mock up with a 5% annual HRR growth and that still shows a flat cap through 2025-26, after which cap growth should return to normal.

 

[LadyStanley]

Any wonder that the Retro jerseys have released in time for Christmas 2020? Some revenue for teams and league.

I can imagine that other revenue streams will be found too to help boost the income, like the possibility of ads on jerseys.

 

[LadyStanley]

No changes financially to CBA. Owners and league taking hit.

 

[mouser]

No changes financially to CBA. Owners and league taking hit.

And some players will take much bigger hits then other players with fewer dollars available in upcoming seasons.

 

[mouser]

NHL has made a change to how opening day rosters are handled. No indication if this is a one-time thing or permanent, though I'm inclined to think it would be permanent. Not going to copy some of the media links I've seen because I'm not confident they accurately explain the change.

What it boils down to is it appears the NHL has made a minor tweak to the opening day roster rules:
- Any player who is listed on the opening day roster as of the end of training camp and loaned on the first day of the season will be treated for LTIR and cap compliance purposes as being loaned on the final day of training camp.

What does that mean? Often teams will shuffle players back and forth between the final day of training camp and first day of the season to maximize LTIR space. Regardless of whether that's a training camp LTIR or day 1 LTIR. Meaning we'd often see players listed on the opening day roster, but then loaned immediately on day 1 before any games are played.

This new rule wouldn't prevent these same LTIR maneuvers from happening. It could restrict the timing of them and cause some teams to play game 1 without their most optimal roster as they couldn't demote players until after that game without impacting their LTIR. Teams would still be free to do LTIR and recall players (assuming available cap and roster space) on day 1. I would also presume it would not be allowed to later loan a player if that caused the final training camp roster to be illegal (for example less then 20 skaters).

 

[LadyStanley]

31 Thoughts: Intriguing NHL futures bets for 2020–21 season

Friedman with some CBA tweaks

18. Changes to the CBA played out in two high-profile situations last week: Mathew Barzal and Corey Crawford. Barzal’s qualifying offer after this deal will not be $10 million, as it would have been under the previous document. It’s $8.4 million. The new figure is determined by the lesser of the salary of the final season of the deal ($10 million in Barzal’s case) or 120 per cent of the average annual value.

As for Crawford, there was a change in over-35 contracts. Under previous rules, the Devils could not have escaped his cap hit. However, they structured his deal in a way that they could. Now, multi-year 35-plus contracts where a) compensation is the same or goes up and b) there is no signing bonus after year one are no longer subject to a cap hit in case of retirement.

Might make a multi-year 35+ contract more palatable.

 

[mouser]

One gem I found buried in the 2020-21 transition rules:

Players loaned to the Taxi squad or any professional league in North America (e.g. AHL, ECHL) are subject to the 10% salary deferral, and have their pay reduced by 20%. That 20% is identical as if they were in the NHL with the full 20% escrow withholding.

Although it does not appear that the 20% pay reduction actually goes into the escrow account and 50/50 split accounting.

 

[mouser]

Another 2020-21 transition rule gem:

Players who have received a confirmed positive test for COVID-19 can be placed on LTIR without the Club physician having to make a determination of how long the player will be unfit to play. The player will still have to remain on IR for the required minimum 10 games and 24 days.

 

[mouser]

And finally, a summary of how the Roster Emergency Exception rules have been adjusted for the 2020-21 season.

Roster Emergency Exception, CBA 50.10(e) provides that
a) If a team has free cap or LTIR space less then the minimum salary + $100k, and
b) The team played its previous game with less then 18 skaters or 2 goaltenders, then

The team will be allowed to recall a player under the Roster Emergency Exception that does not count against the team cap. The recalled player cannot have a AAV greater then the minimum (currently $700k) + $100k = $800k.

For 2020-21 these rules are being amended:
- Players with up to $1,000,000 in AAV can be recalled, and Performance Bonuses are not included in this AAV. Though any earned Performance Bonus will still hit the cap.
- Teams can recall a goaltender from the taxi squad without playing the previous game with less then 2.
- Teams can recall a goaltender from the taxi squad immediately mid-game if both goaltenders on the roster become incapacitated during the game.
- If a team has less then 12 forwards or 6 defensemen on the Active Roster specifically by virtue of players being unavailable due to COVID protocol then the team can immediately recall a player from the taxi squad without having played the previous game with less then 18 skaters (or 12F/6D).

This would mean any team that finds itself with less then 18 skaters due to injury (rather then COVID) would still need to play a game short before being allowed to use the Roster Emergency Exception.

 

[LadyStanley]

$20m split by playoff players

 

[alko]

$20m split by playoff players

How much will see a player on his bank-account? Is there any formula, that will split this money to a single player? And how much was this money in 2020, 2019, 2018?

 

[LadyStanley]

Read the article.

Monies allocated PER TEAM for how far they get in playoffs. The players on the team decide how it's allocated.

There's a chunk to President's Trophy winners.

8 teams ousted in round 1 get ~ $391k each (divide that split 25 ways is about $15.6k before escrow, but could be divided by 30 if you include full taxi squad $13k, or
under $2k/game in 7 game series ). (Compare that to guy with $4m contract who pulls in ~$48k/game before taxes, escrow deducted.)

4 teams ousted after round 2 get about double that.

Increases again for the 2 teams ousted in round 3.

SCF loser gets even more and SCF winner even more.

(Of course, there's escrow taken out.)

 

[saintunspecified]

I don't really know if this is the right place to ask this question - I've tried searching, but can't find anyting. So I apologize in advance if this is the wrong place. Anyway here's the question:

Are there any rules regarding the timeliness of submitting signed contracts between a team and a player (UFA or RFA whose rights are owned by the team) during the offseason?

The reason I ask is that both fans and media covering the Islanders suspect that Lamoriello & NYI are withholding reporting contracts to the league in order to obscure their cap situation from other GM's possibly as a means to limiting their vulnerability against offer sheets for their RFA's, a group that most notably includes Adam Pelech. It struck me that *if* this strategy followed the rules, at least several GM's would utliize it. But only NYI are presumed to have made acquisitions (Palmieri & Parise, if not more) without announcements or filings.

 

[LeHab]

I don't really know if this is the right place to ask this question - I've tried searching, but can't find anyting. So I apologize in advance if this is the wrong place. Anyway here's the question:

Are there any rules regarding the timeliness of submitting signed contracts between a team and a player (UFA or RFA whose rights are owned by the team) during the offseason?

The reason I ask is that both fans and media covering the Islanders suspect that Lamoriello & NYI are withholding reporting contracts to the league in order to obscure their cap situation from other GM's possibly as a means to limiting their vulnerability against offer sheets for their RFA's, a group that most notably includes Adam Pelech. It struck me that *if* this strategy followed the rules, at least several GM's would utliize it. But only NYI are presumed to have made acquisitions (Palmieri & Parise, if not more) without announcements or filings.

Once a signed contract is received from player, Club must fill the contract with league by next day 5pm.

11.5 Filing and Approval Process.

(c) A Club must file an executed SPC or Offer Sheet with Central Registry, with a
copy to each of the Player and the NHLPA, by no later than 5:00 p.m. New York time on the day
following the day the Club has received the executed SPC or Offer Sheet from the Player.

 

[saintunspecified]

Once a signed contract is received from player, Club must fill the contract with league by next day 5pm.

Thank you very much!

 

[LadyStanley]

Ladies and gentlemen, we have an offer sheet. ($20.00 signing bonus, lol. AIUI that's Aho's #)

 

[LeHab]

Article 12 of CBA has a provision for taking Group 2 RFAs to arbitration instead of tendering QOs:

(a) Club-Elected Salary Arbitration For Players With Paragraph 1 NHL Salaries plus
Signing, Roster, and Reporting Bonuses Greater Than $1,750,000 In The Prior League Year.
(i) If a Player who is otherwise eligible to receive a Qualifying Offer and
become a Group 2 Restricted Free Agent had a Paragraph 1 NHL Salary
plus Signing, Roster and Reporting Bonuses in excess of $1,750,000 in the
aggregate in the final League Year of his most recent SPC, a Club may
elect to file for salary arbitration to determine the Player's Paragraph 1
Salary for the upcoming League Year in lieu of making a Qualifying Offer
to such Player.
(ii) In any salary arbitration that takes place pursuant to this Section 12.3(a),
the Salary Arbitrator may not award the Player a Paragraph 1 Salary that is
less than eighty-five (85) percent of the aggregate sum of Player's
Paragraph 1 Salary plus Signing, Reporting and Roster Bonuses in the
final League Year of his most recent SPC.
(iii) The dollar amount of $1,750,000 set forth in subparagraph (i) above shall
be increased on an annual basis at the same percentage rate of annual
increase as the Average League Salary, with the first such increase
occurring based upon a comparison of the 2014/15 Average League Salary
to the 2013/14 Average League Salary. By way of example, if the
Average League Salary for the 2014/15 League Year has increased by ten
(10) percent from the Average League Salary for the 2013/14 League
Year, then the figure of $1,750,000 stated in subparagraph (i) above, shall
be increased by ten (10) percent to $1,925,000.

Any examples where this provision was invoked?

 

[mouser]

Article 12 of CBA has a provision for taking Group 2 RFAs to arbitration instead of tendering QOs:



Any examples where this provision was invoked?

Vancouver invoked it with Mason Raymond in 2012. Toronto did so for Jonathan Bernier in 2015. I'm sure there have been other cases.

 

[LadyStanley]

Montreal declines to match offer sheet.

 

[LadyStanley]

Ah, cap gymnastics

 

[Fourier]

My swing at what the escrow balance might look like. Copied from another thread

I tried a spreadsheet mock up of how the Escrow Balance and salary cap could look going forward if no changes are made.

List of figures and assumptions used in this model.
- HRR for 2018-19 was ~$4.61B (based on reverse engineering the 2019-20 cap)
- Actual player salary/bonuses for 2018-19 were ~$2.414B (based on reverse engineering HRR and final escrow %)
- HRR has been growing at an annual 4% average in the 5 years leading up to the covid shutdown and will continue to do so in 2021-22 and following years.
- One time 5% year over year increase in HRR due to the new TV contract. $250m year to year increase estimate on TV money.
- $500M starting Escrow Balance following the 2019-20 season. *This may be high, need to research further, any input appreciated.
- Seattle revenue and new player costs are not included. Proportionally they should be neutral to a small upward adjustment, but not huge impact on this model.
- HRR for 2020-21 of $2.5B. HRR for 2021-22 returns to normal and is equal to 2019-20 projection of $4.8B. Increases by 4% year by year going forward.
- Player compensation increases year to year at same % as cap increase.
- Did not include 2020 MOU increases in non-salary player benefits that are included in compensation. It is a material number but not large enough to significantly change this model.

Season	cap	Revenue	Player share	Player actual	deferred	escrow%	final escrow	escrow $	Starting balance	ending balance	Player share
2020-21	81.5	2500	1130	2238.994		20%	-20%	(447.80)	500	1161.20	71.6%
2021-22	81.5	4799	2279.28	2487.771		16%	-16%	(398.04)	1161.20	971.64	43.5%
2022-23	82.5	5182	2471.222	2518.296	74.63	10%	-10%	(251.83)	971.64	841.52	45.2%
2023-24	83.5	5390	2574.871	2548.821	74.63	6%	-6%	(152.93)	841.52	737.17	45.8%
2024-25	84.5	5605	2682.666	2579.346	74.63	6%	-6%	(154.76)	737.17	553.73	44.6%
2025-26	85.5	5830	2794.773	2609.87		6%	-6%	(156.59)	553.73	212.23	42.1%
2026-27	87.0	6063	2911.364	2655.658		0%	0%	0.00	212.23	(43.48)	43.8%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

So the tradeoff for overpaying the players this season (including deferred salary) is an essentially flat cap for six additional years out through 2026-27. The players would also receive much less then 50% of HRR in every one of those seasons, with a low of 42%.

I did a similar mock up with a 5% annual HRR growth and that still shows a flat cap through 2025-26, after which cap growth should return to normal.

Given Bettman's projection for revenue this year of over $5B would you be willing to take another swing at this? I for one would be very interested to see what you came up with but I appreciate that it is a big ask.

NHL Forecasts Over $5B in Revenue - Front Office Sports

 

[LadyStanley]

Appealed to commission, and ....


I don't like that suspension was reduced as injury wasn't bad.

 

[LadyStanley]

Columbus Blue Jackets suspend F Gregory Hofmann

Took personal leave, decided not to return. The team have suspended him. (I guess they could put him on unconditional waivers and terminate his contract )




And the NHL can fine coaches too.

 

[uncleben]

Columbus Blue Jackets suspend F Gregory Hofmann

Took personal leave, decided not to return. The team have suspended him. (I guess they could put him on unconditional waivers and terminate his contract )




And the NHL can fine coaches too.

They're probably hoping they can convince him to come back when he's ready, instead of terminating him


Yep! Bowness is the second coach fined this season!
Brind'Amour was fined earlier this season, as well, for yelling at the refs lol

 

[LadyStanley]

Stone has missed multiple stretches of games this season with back issues. Looks like he'll be in LTIR and might allow VGK to activate Eichel without having to move player. Or delay until closer to TDL.