Louis Cypher
Boys are back in town
- Jun 11, 2007
- 4,132
- 3,625
The postage to return this crap will be too costly. We are stuck with it so just continue to leave bad reviews.
Post-Game Talk: Free Returns with Prime.
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HFBoards is well aware that today is election day in the US. We ask respectfully to focus on hockey and not politics.
The shooting percentage and save percentage are why our PK and PP are so bad.
Good news is that to some extent these percentages are driven by luck. Much more so than consistently outshooting/outchancing teams which is much more reflective of genuine team strength. The percentages will level out.
That’s not to say there aren’t still some problems to be concerned about. Brown and Janmark on our 3rd line is essentially a guaranteed neuter to the line for example.
But the relatively okay record is a testament to the fact that the Oilers are actually playing relatively good hockey.
Have you watched Nuge play this year?
Id say 16 is around what he will get.
I’d say it’s extremely doubtful Hyman hits 50 or even close, last year is most likely and outlier.
Skinner depends on usage. He isn’t going to be a big PP guy here (maybe that changes). He only had 16 even strength goals last year although 27/28 the previous years. He is aging and on a new team so I’d say 40 goals between him and Arvidsson would be a likely scenario. We are also missing Kane from last year. Say Kane manages 10 goals when he comes back, 20 goals less from Hyman and Nuge. That’s 34 goals down right there. Foegele, McLeod and Holloway scored 38 goals combined which Skinner and Arvidsson should cover. Thats still 34 goals to make up for Podkolzin which I don’t see them covering. So unless McDavid and Draisaitl both hit 50 goals or guys like Henrique, Brown and Janmark score 10-15 it’s going to be a big hit offensively n
ujju2
Registered User
Henrique scored 24 last year, even in a reduced role and with a slow start I'd be very surprised to see him score less than 10.
I had McDavid and Drai scoring about 15 more goals combined than they did last year, which should make up for any shortfall from Hyman. Problem is I assumed that McDavid was going to shoot the puck again to do it. Leon looks like he'll end with ~50 at this point.
Henrique scored 24 goals mostly getting top 6 minutes and pp time with better linemates than he had this year. I think 15 goals is reasonable for him but not his linemates. I think his lack of offensive linemates will hurt his numbers.
It’s why I was so hopeful the team was going to put some high potential youth with him for a scoring line.
I was picturing a Holloway - Henrique - Savoie line for a bit before everything happened. Team doesn’t seem to what to go that path at all so I think Henriques numbers will suffer.
Offensively the main difference between last year and this year is basically just the PP thus far.
35 goals last year through 13 games, 31 goals this year through 13 games.
But last year they had something like 4 more goals on the PP at this point. So there's your difference basically.
9 PP goals last year this time, versus 5 this year.
26 non-PP goals through 13 games, identical to last year.
Thankfully our D is considerably better this year than last year at this point, it's why we have 6 wins instead of 2-3.
35 goals last year through 13 games, 31 goals this year through 13 games.
But last year they had something like 4 more goals on the PP at this point. So there's your difference basically.
9 PP goals last year this time, versus 5 this year.
26 non-PP goals through 13 games, identical to last year.
Thankfully our D is considerably better this year than last year at this point, it's why we have 6 wins instead of 2-3.
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This is what I've been saying - your goaltender is your most important pker, and good lord have our goaltenders dropped the ball 4v5.
We have like a league wide historic low save percentage on the pk right now by several standard deviations at 0.674.
Just a quick comparison to the top 3/4ths of the league...
Duke74
Registered User
- Jan 13, 2018
- 2,806
- 3,472
Honestly maybe we should just bring back Cam Talbot, lol.
I see he's 5th in GSAA this year again after a respectable 14th overall finish last year (10th best for goalies who played over 30 games), whereas Pickard is like 41st overall and Skinner is sitting at 65th best (lol) currently.
Talbot is better than our goalies.
tardigrade81
Registered User
Special teams just needs to be better plain and simple. Powerplay isn't near what it was and the power kill is absolutely pathetic. Special teams is just killer this year. Getting McD back will help but holy crap it's been a mess.
There’s definitely an alternate reality where the Oilers don’t pick Koskinen over Talbot and Talbot plays the rest of his career here. Splitting time with Skinner over the last couple years as he nears retirement.
Doubt Detroit is looking to sell right now though.
Goalies need to make some saves on the PK, both of our guys are just bombing it on the PK.
That was a great final f*** you from Chiarelli to screw us with Koskinen. Don't think Detroit is making the playoffs this year though, that division is tough.
KeithIsActuallyBad
SPEEN!
People really forget how hated "First shot Talbot" was after 2016-17.
The other part about it that's brutal is that we honestly haven't really given up that many chances against on the pk. We're literally tied for second in the league in terms of the least amount of High Danger scoring chances given up at 4v5;
We're not giving up much, just everything ends up in the net, even things that aren't really good chances. We need saves at 4v5 desperately and we just aren't getting them.
I think honestly this franchise needs to have a very sober assessment of the goaltending here.
This team will always have rollercoaster stretches like this because they have no margin for error with the goaltending they get.
Yes, there are stretches where the goalies will look OK because we do a good job team wise of suppressing high danger chances, but it's ridiculous to ask for much better in terms of HDCA suppression that what the goalies here get.
Jimmi McJenkins
Sometimes miracles
Haven't been on the kill long enough to get those high danger chances lol, but it's rough to watch.
brentashton
Registered User
- Jan 21, 2018
- 15,329
- 22,146
Detroit is absolutely floundering and underperforming to expectations. I’m sure as long as you’re not wanting to deal on Lyon, they probably entertain an offer for Talbot.
That said, I’d take a run at Mackenzie Blackwood in SJS.
Yup. And before anyone asks - even if you adjust for toi - our rates of giving up chances on the pk are the third best in the league.
We're also top 5 in the league in terms of this metric at 5v5, for the record;
If you factor in both scoring chances for and against at all strengths, we have the best scoring chances metrics in the league at all strengths by a mile, btw.
Lol I was too slow, but yeah, if you go by rates were amazing too.
KeithIsActuallyBad
SPEEN!
brentashton
Registered User
- Jan 21, 2018
- 15,329
- 22,146
I believe there are still a lot of past posters that are reading in the background, but are not overly active anymore.
Like society in general, I feel dialogue here has become increasingly more polarized, black and white, while shades of grey and meaningful dialogue aren’t as tolerated as they once were.
Just an opinion
Oilslick941611
Registered User
i would agree, but i think that line was crossed a few years ago.
We've been seeing the same cycle for years, certain posters come and post after win, and go away for a loss, and vice versa.
I think a lot of people just wanted to complain about Holland and now hes gone they're gone after realizing that Holland wasn't the issue.
From about 2017-2021 I took a sabbatical from the board more or less. It hurt enough watching the organization throw away seasons that we were supposed to be spending getting better and building towards a championship. Coming here and reading the (mostly justifiable) doom and gloom was just way too much salt in the wound.
I'm re-addicted to the board now, but I could totally understand posters that prefer to stay away until the team gets its feet underneath them again. Currently the board is more or less a piss fest among people trying to pick out their target as to why the team isn't playing well, and that can be draining to read.
Jimmi McJenkins
Sometimes miracles
I mean, they should not let Nurse do much, but there in lies the major problem.
Juxta Position
Registered User
- Jul 2, 2006
- 2,344
- 1,933
I get that, but how much offense is truly needed? honestly, a top 15 powerplay, and a return to normal for most guys (not 50 goals for Hyman but 30-35, and not 100 points, but 60ish for nuge), and this team is all of a sudden a contender again.
strength of schedule is not something that can be changed either way so it's not anything that can be worked on, it is what it is, and all the Oilers can do is beat teams they're supposed to beat, and tread water until the offense comes back, which it will.
