GDT: Free agency part III-toed sloth slow

[MadeUpName]

Thompson is already signed for $1.4 million for next year. Buffalo pays to lock him in guaranteed

On the upside if Thompson produced 30/30 next year then he would still only be worth ~$8 million.

On the downside Thompson could regress and be worth less than his extension.

Buffalo avoided riding out his RFA contract, another 60+ point year and then losing him to UFA in one year after arbitration.

 

[Vagrant]

I can't help but think about how insane it would be to get JT Miller here. I would trade Pesce and Necas in a heartbeat for him. I may be in the minority on that, but Pesce has already requested a trade from here once before. in my estimation, he's as good as gone at the first available opportunity. no way in hell we can give him what he will think he deserves. if we're ever going to trade him, it needs to be now before he's looking at 82 games from freedom and the team picking him up can maintain some sense of hope he will be there long term. I'm not opposed to rolling with what we have, but adding a guy who almost scored 100 points for the Canucks last season would be enormous and we are in the thick of our window and look to have goaltending somewhat solved. we'd have the best top 6 in hockey with that addition.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

I can't help but think about how insane it would be to get JT Miller here. I would trade Pesce and Necas in a heartbeat for him. I may be in the minority on that, but Pesce has already requested a trade from here once before. in my estimation, he's as good as gone at the first available opportunity. no way in hell we can give him what he will think he deserves. if we're ever going to trade him, it needs to be now before he's looking at 82 games from freedom and the team picking him up can maintain some sense of hope he will be there long term. I'm not opposed to rolling with what we have, but adding a guy who almost scored 100 points for the Canucks last season would be enormous and we are in the thick of our window and look to have goaltending somewhat solved. we'd have the best top 6 in hockey with that addition.

 

[Vagrant]

View attachment 580490

two guys who are going to be difficult signatures moving out for a player we can potentially extend. it's not only about the on-ice value, it's also about which assets want to be here and will potentially agree to more team control in the future. I don't believe the organization will ever trust necas if they squeezed him this hard this time around, so the writing might already be on the wall there. we've seen how this team deals with players they don't want to pay. they don't force things. I believe pesce is going to ask for 7-8 million, especially after playing so many years on a relative discount. the team certainly isn't giving him that. again, he's already asked out once before to be a #1 somewhere. highly plausible in 2 years time they will both be elsewhere for low return. if you already know that as an organization, why not move in advance?

 

[MinJaBen]

two guys who are going to be difficult signatures moving out for a player we can potentially extend. it's not only about the on-ice value, it's also about which assets want to be here and will potentially agree to more team control in the future. I don't believe the organization will ever trust necas if they squeezed him this hard this time around, so the writing might already be on the wall there. we've seen how this team deals with players they don't want to pay. they don't force things. I believe pesce is going to ask for 7-8 million, especially after playing so many years on a relative discount. the team certainly isn't giving him that. again, he's already asked out once before to be a #1 somewhere. highly plausible in 2 years time they will both be elsewhere for low return. if you already know that as an organization, why not move in advance?

Because two years of them at their price point is better than signing a 30 year old to an 8 year contract to pay the guy for one great year that he got somewhere else.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

two guys who are going to be difficult signatures moving out for a player we can potentially extend. it's not only about the on-ice value, it's also about which assets want to be here and will potentially agree to more team control in the future. I don't believe the organization will ever trust necas if they squeezed him this hard this time around, so the writing might already be on the wall there. we've seen how this team deals with players they don't want to pay. they don't force things. I believe pesce is going to ask for 7-8 million, especially after playing so many years on a relative discount. the team certainly isn't giving him that. again, he's already asked out once before to be a #1 somewhere. highly plausible in 2 years time they will both be elsewhere for low return. if you already know that as an organization, why not move in advance?

Pesce didnt ask to be moved to be #1 elsewhere. He asked to be moved if we were going to play him as a 3RD. Maybe Pesce is moved next off-season as we see what Burns still has in tank, Morrow is on the roster, and we have a viable 3RD in Bear, Chatfield, or Coghlan. Until we know what any of the other 5 RHD will give us in this system in a full, healthy season, moving the one guy we know what we have seems like a step backwards. Add in trading a controllable asset for a guy that will only be here a year. Those seem like 2 very anti Hurricanes things to do.

 

[Chrispy]

two guys who are going to be difficult signatures moving out for a player we can potentially extend. it's not only about the on-ice value, it's also about which assets want to be here and will potentially agree to more team control in the future. I don't believe the organization will ever trust necas if they squeezed him this hard this time around, so the writing might already be on the wall there. we've seen how this team deals with players they don't want to pay. they don't force things. I believe pesce is going to ask for 7-8 million, especially after playing so many years on a relative discount. the team certainly isn't giving him that. again, he's already asked out once before to be a #1 somewhere. highly plausible in 2 years time they will both be elsewhere for low return. if you already know that as an organization, why not move in advance?

1) I don't think it's a guarantee that Necas is out in 2 years time at all. I still think the second half of 21-22 was a bump in the road and he will continue to develop into a wing that this team needs.

2) If you have a proven top 2/4 RD signed to a good contract for 2 years and a young wing on a good contract for 2 years, is a rental the best return they can get?

3) Signing a 30 year old to a 7-8 year deal does not make a lot of sense compared to signing Pesce or Necas, which brings us back to the "rental" aspect of this trade.

 

[Stickpucker]

I think the difference here is Vagrant is ready to go all in for a cup where others want to just keep building for the future.

I'm kind of on the fence but will say...this season would be really fun if we had JT Miller on the roster...especially if we could get him for futures.

Adding a 100 pt forward who could eat all the touch matchups letting Aho get the easier ones could be really tough for any team to deal with.

I don't know who exactly I'd be willing to move as part of the deal. I think if we lost Pesce our 2nd pair would take quite the hit...even if I follow the logic he may be gone in a couple seasons.

for playoffs:

Svech - Miller - Jarvis
Patches - Aho - TT

sure Bruins...send out Bergeron vs Miller.....have fun with the 2nd line.

 

[MadeUpName]

I would think Pesce alone would be enough to get 1 year of JT Miller. Vancouver needs a RD and there are few better fits for Quinn Hughes than a player like Pesce. However that creates a glaring hole in the top-4 that would need to be filled at the trade deadline.

At that point this is just juggling priorities. They could just as easily keep Pesce and try to fill that top-6 spot at the trade deadline. A deadline JT Miller isn't getting more than a 1st + Suzuki-type prospect.

 

[Chrispy]

I think the difference here is Vagrant is ready to go all in for a cup where others want to just keep building for the future.

I'm kind of on the fence but will say...this season would be really fun if we had JT Miller on the roster...especially if we could get him for futures.

Adding a 100 pt forward who could eat all the touch matchups letting Aho get the easier ones could be really tough for any team to deal with.

I don't know who exactly I'd be willing to move as part of the deal. I think if we lost Pesce our 2nd pair would take quite the hit...even if I follow the logic he may be gone in a couple seasons.

for playoffs:

Svech - Miller - Jarvis
Patches - Aho - TT

sure Bruins...send out Bergeron vs Miller.....have fun with the 2nd line.

I can get behind acquiring Miller for a rental price (1st+prospect, maybe a roster player like Bear added in.)

I think we all agree Necas+Pesce is not a rental price.

 

[cptjeff]

You don't trade for a player, you trade for their contract.

Pesce and Slavin combined make less than many defensemen who are inferior to both of them. That is a massive, massive advantage that we have over the rest of the league. As long as Pesce is on that contract, he's absolutely untouchable. I don't care who you're getting back. Trading Pesce with one of the biggest steals of a contract in the league would force us to make major reductions elsewhere in the lineup. Just no.

 

[MadeUpName]

You don't trade for a player, you trade for their contract.

Pesce and Slavin combined make less than many defensemen who are inferior to both of them. That is a massive, massive advantage that we have over the rest of the league. As long as Pesce is on that contract, he's absolutely untouchable. I don't care who you're getting back. Trading Pesce with one of the biggest steals of a contract in the league would force us to make major reductions elsewhere in the lineup. Just no.

For one year that argument fails as JT Miller at $5.25 million is actually a better contract than Pesce at $4 million. At least equal. But that second year hurts. Really depends on how Carolina could utilize that Cap.

What is for sure is that it would be out of character for Carolina to pay high-end assets for an older rental. And out of character to offer a big extension to an older player. But JT Miller does have a lot of utility and skill. Plays all 3 positions, size, mobility, compete, etc. Nothing elite but it is all high-end. They would have to see him as "the" piece.

 

[MinJaBen]

I can get behind acquiring Miller for a rental price (1st+prospect, maybe a roster player like Bear added in.)

I think we all agree Necas+Pesce is not a rental price.

Yes, this would be an easy yes if we could fit him in the line up. Liking going all in by acquiring Miller and not liking trading Necas and Pesce for Miller don't have to be mutually exclusive.

 

[MinJaBen]

Now, while a MIller rental would be a nice add, I wouldn't do it now. I still think Pasta has a very good chance to shake free. Probably not now as the Bruins just signed Bergeron and Krejčí; but they have a bunch of banged up guys that won't be back until a good chunk of the year is gone. If they are out of the playoff hunt by double digits in points at Thanksgiving, and Pasta hasn't signed yet, I'd want to have some room to maneuver that already having Miller in the fold would not afford us.

 

[A Star is Burns]

I don't think I'd trade Pesce for Miller. Especially not when he should be available for a rental price at some point potentially.

But I would consider trading Pesce at some point, probably next off-season, because I don't really think we'll resign him after this contract. And I don't think we should barring another sweetheart contract. Of course, just having him play out the two years on a great contract isn't a bad plan either.

 

[bleedgreen]

I can't help but think about how insane it would be to get JT Miller here. I would trade Pesce and Necas in a heartbeat for him. I may be in the minority on that, but Pesce has already requested a trade from here once before. in my estimation, he's as good as gone at the first available opportunity. no way in hell we can give him what he will think he deserves. if we're ever going to trade him, it needs to be now before he's looking at 82 games from freedom and the team picking him up can maintain some sense of hope he will be there long term. I'm not opposed to rolling with what we have, but adding a guy who almost scored 100 points for the Canucks last season would be enormous and we are in the thick of our window and look to have goaltending somewhat solved. we'd have the best top 6 in hockey with that addition.

i certainly hope you’re the minority.

We don’t know what really happened with a trade request (or was he just open to one?) but Rod’s use of Pesce that first season was non sensical. Pesce was a first pair RD appropriately above Faulk for a few years and was hitting his prime and the first thing Rod did was reward loyal vets like Faulk with prime time top four minutes (not to mention the first pp and stuck with it despite Dougie being here and Faulk underperforming), which led to Pesce going from 1st pair to the 3rd….sometimes even the left side of the third pair despite doing not one thing wrong. He was right to be pissed.

He’s as much a core player on this team as we have imo and he’s gotten taken for granted when Rod eventually chose to use him as the anchor for the second pair. Sjkei is not a good defensive defenseman. What everyone keeps saying Slavin does for his rotating cast of partners is exactly the same thing Pesce does.

He may have to go because of the contract, I know this but I would absolutely not trade him for a rental we have no intention of signing.


And that’s not even touching the Necas aspect.

 

[HisIceness]

Seems like Morrow (if he's truly the real deal) is in theory, going to be a replacement for Pesce when that time comes. But even if not, with UFA Armageddon coming in 2024, someone's gonna walk, and I'd imagine Aho and Necas are the keepers. I'd sit back and let the contract play out at this time.

As for Miller, I like the player but if these rumors about Pasta in Boston end up being true, I'd take a look at him. He's younger so we could get more prime years out of him.

Edit: echo what @MinJaBen said.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

two guys who are going to be difficult signatures moving out for a player we can potentially extend. it's not only about the on-ice value, it's also about which assets want to be here and will potentially agree to more team control in the future.

Setting the rest of the discussion aside, what makes you feel that the bold above is a real possibility?

He'll be 30. Canes didn't want to give Faulk, or Hamilton, or Trocheck or Nino a long term contract at market value. I find it hard to believe that they'd offer a 30 year old Miller a 7 year, high dollar deal to extend him. I think your comment about more team control is optimistic at best given how the Canes management as acted to date.

As a rental, I definitely see the merit in trading for Miller and it would be great to have him for this year for the reason's you stated (match-ups, taking tough assignments, etc..). I'd bed all for it at a rental price, but have no idea what a fair value is for that scenario.

 

[Vagrant]

i certainly hope you’re the minority.

We don’t know what really happened with a trade request (or was he just open to one?) but Rod’s use of Pesce that first season was non sensical. Pesce was a first pair RD appropriately above Faulk for a few years and was hitting his prime and the first thing Rod did was reward loyal vets like Faulk with prime time top four minutes (not to mention the first pp and stuck with it despite Dougie being here and Faulk underperforming), which led to Pesce going from 1st pair to the 3rd….sometimes even the left side of the third pair despite doing not one thing wrong. He was right to be pissed.

He’s as much a core player on this team as we have imo and he’s gotten taken for granted when Rod eventually chose to use him as the anchor for the second pair. Sjkei is not a good defensive defenseman. What everyone keeps saying Slavin does for his rotating cast of partners is exactly the same thing Pesce does.

He may have to go because of the contract, I know this but I would absolutely not trade him for a rental we have no intention of signing.


And that’s not even touching the Necas aspect.

Pesce is nowhere near a core piece on this team anymore. There are 6 or 7 guys I would keep over him. Aho, Slavin, Svech, Burns, Skjei, Jarvis, Teuvo, Freddie. he's a solid 30 point defenseman who can eat minutes and has had the good fortune to play with some outstanding defensive partners his entire career. Skjei is absolutely a better overall defenseman based on their play last season. Plus, Pesce isn't a leader. I don't even think he's a likeable person in my opinion.

He'll be 30. Canes didn't want to give Faulk, or Hamilton, or Trocheck or Nino a long term contract at market value. I find it hard to believe that they'd offer a 30 year old Miller a 7 year, high dollar deal to extend him. I think your comment about more team control is optimistic at best given how the Canes management as acted to date.

As a rental, I definitely see the merit in trading for Miller and it would be great to have him for this year for the reason's you stated (match-ups, taking tough assignments, etc..). I'd bed all for it at a rental price, but have no idea what a fair value is for that scenario.

It's the salary that move would clear and the fact that Jordan is moving on after this season that would make giving him a large contract more tolerable. we're going to have a degree of wiggle room with some of these contracts coming off and our resistance against attempting to keep the guys you mentioned. the reason we didn't keep them is because they weren't the right fit for us and they capped our ability to improve the roster. I think if we had $7-7.5 million to offer Miller on a long term deal we could get it done. we haven't lost very many guys we couldn't afford to lose or couldn't replace. if we picked up Miller, he would absolutely be impossible to replace. he's the prototype 2nd center and he brings a physical edge with it. he's a lot of things that necas will never be even if he hits his high end projection. you have to be two lines deep with elite centers to compete with Tampa, and we don't have it. our defense can be nearly flawless but if we can't score efficiently on special teams we're not going to be competitive with the top dogs. Miller had 38 points on the PP last season. 30 assists.

 

[Chrispy]

Miller had 38 points on the PP last season. 30 assists.

I don't think the problem Carolina's PP has is finding a passing threat. Teravainen had 22 assists and 31 points with Svech as the closest thing on the PP to a sniper.

Miller had 0.143 points per minute on the PP last season.
Teravainen had 0.137 points per minute on the PP last season.

If you want to argue that Miller is a huge boost to 5v5 play? I can get behind that rationale. But I don't see the urgency for another elite passer on the PP.

 

[Vagrant]

I don't think the problem Carolina's PP has is finding a passing threat. Teravainen had 22 assists and 31 points with Svech as the closest thing on the PP to a sniper.

Miller had 0.143 points per minute on the PP last season.
Teravainen had 0.137 points per minute on the PP last season.

If you want to argue that Miller is a huge boost to 5v5 play? I can get behind that rationale. But I don't see the urgency for another elite passer on the PP.

I suppose that my assumption here was higher skill level equals better overall unit and having miller would be an upgrade. brent burns is going to help immensely, but adding a forward that can whip it around really well wouldn't hurt matters. I think his addition would give us two strong units as well. just kind of pointing out all the benefits.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

I do wonder if this is our last season with Pesce. He’ll be 28 at the end of the season. 29 when his deal comes up. We traded Faulk at 27 with a year left on his deal because we didn’t want to pony up for that contract. The question is whether Pesce’s lack of counting stats makes him easier to re-sign at a reasonable number. Even then, who knows.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

It's the salary that move would clear and the fact that Jordan is moving on after this season that would make giving him a large contract more tolerable. we're going to have a degree of wiggle room with some of these contracts coming off and our resistance against attempting to keep the guys you mentioned. the reason we didn't keep them is because they weren't the right fit for us and they capped our ability to improve the roster. I think if we had $7-7.5 million to offer Miller on a long term deal we could get it done. we haven't lost very many guys we couldn't afford to lose or couldn't replace.

I get all that, but my point is that I still don’t see this front office giving a 30 year old a $7m-$7.5m long term deal. It’s inconsistent with how they’ve operated from day 1. That’s what I don’t see happening.

Maybe someday it will happen, but until it does, I remain highly skeptical and don’t think that the chances are as high as you do.

 

[Chrispy]

I do wonder if this is our last season with Pesce. He’ll be 28 at the end of the season. 29 when his deal comes up. We traded Faulk at 27 with a year left on his deal because we didn’t want to pony up for that contract. The question is whether Pesce’s lack of counting stats makes him easier to re-sign at a reasonable number. Even then, who knows.

Possible, but at a minimum I don't see them making such a move until they are certain they have some defense to backfill.

Can Bear play like he did at the start of last season?
Can Chatfield play long-term at the NHL level?
Can Coghlan play in this system?
Can Gardiner play?

The bottom pairing is nothing but question marks. Until they feel confident they have another top 4 RD in the fold, I don't think they move Pesce.

 

[Stickpucker]

I would think Pesce alone would be enough to get 1 year of JT Miller. Vancouver needs a RD and there are few better fits for Quinn Hughes than a player like Pesce. However that creates a glaring hole in the top-4 that would need to be filled at the trade deadline.

At that point this is just juggling priorities. They could just as easily keep Pesce and try to fill that top-6 spot at the trade deadline. A deadline JT Miller isn't getting more than a 1st + Suzuki-type prospect.

Why not get Miller earlier if price is similar and finish higher in standings to get an easier matchup in the earlier rounds?